YoY inflation rate rises to 2.7%. May was 2.4%.

MoM is 0.3%, which also rose from previous month.

Powell would be a fool to cut rates right now.

Quote:

---

07/15/2025

In June, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.3 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 2.7 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in June (SA); up 2.9 percent over the year (NSA).

---

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/

And core inflation moved up from 2.8% to 2.9%.

Food was the biggest driver. How much of the food we import is impacted by tariffs?

Slow rolling the realization of the devalued dollar doesn't make us healthier. I'd rather climb the wall and be done with it than to spend a decade struggling uphill. The money got printed - either extract it or let it run its natural course.

I'm no economics major, but I wonder about tariff driven price increases vs supply/demand driven price increases.

If tariffs are raising prices, what impact would cutting interest rates have on consumer buying power? It is not scarcity driving price higher so would lowering interest rates help or hurt every day consumers be able to afford more?

It is normally a fear to cut interest rates into an inflationary period, but historically those inflationary periods are driven by too much cheap dollars on not enough goods being made.

I don't see that as the issue here. In my opinion, the Fed SHOULD cut interest rates to help offset tariff-driven inflation. Production is not impacted. Demand won't suddenly overshoot supply - because the interest cut is to help consumers afford what they are CURRENTLY buying - not buy more than they are currently buying.

But, like I said. I'm no economist. Just trying to provide logic and historical perspective and ask the question. Maybe someone with a PhD in Economics can enlighten me.

akm91 said:

---

Food was the biggest driver. How much of the food we import is impacted by tariffs?

---

Actually, energy was down 0.8% due to falling gas prices. Without that, inflation would have been higher.

That's why they also track "core CPI" which excludes volatile food and energy prices to give a better understanding of inflation on items thought to be more stable.

Core CPI is 2.9%, much closer to 3% than the Fed target of 2%.

Based on the data, it's hard to make a case for cutting rates right now.

"Wait and see" won't make Trump happy, but it's the right call.

Removing food and energy, showed the core inflation was up 2.9% vs the full reported value of 2.7%. So, how much is food and energy up?

I haven't checked energy costs in a while, but if power and fuel are up I would assume that is transitory (like that) based on traders taking advantage of unrest in Iran, Ukraine, and our tariff fight with China. So no real basis other than speculative trading to move price. But, the price move is real so you have to deal with that!

Hasn't Bessent said they are targeting 3% inflation as part of the 3/3/3 thing?

gougler08 said:

---

Hasn't Bessent said they are targeting 3% inflation as part of the 3/3/3 thing?

---

No. His 3/3/3 plan is focused on getting 3% GDP growth, keeping the annual budget deficit to 3%, and increasing domestic oil production by 3 million barrels per day.

Higher inflation will just keep rates up higher, which will increase payments on the debt and destroy his goal of keeping the budget deficit to 3%.

Higher inflation =/= good

If inflation is supply/demand driven I would agree with you, but it is not in this instance. It is tariff driven. In this instance, the FED should weigh causes of inflation more carefully and consider a rate cut to offset tariff impacts.

I know people hate Trump, but on this issue he may actually be correct.

Have an open mind and consider inflation from a different perspective. It is not cut and dry anymore. Things are different.

This isn't like the COVID shutdown that killed production rates on everything we buy.

Cutting rates in a rising inflation environment is insane and a recipe for disaster.

That has been proven over the course of history in many nations around the world.

... and I don't hate Trump. Voted for him three times.

Red Red Wine said:

---

Removing food and energy, showed the core inflation was up 2.9% vs the full reported value of 2.7%. So, how much is food and energy up?

I haven't checked energy costs in a while, but if power and fuel are up I would assume that is transitory (like that) based on traders taking advantage of unrest in Iran, Ukraine, and our tariff fight with China. So no real basis other than speculative trading to move price. But, the price move is real so you have to deal with that!

---

Energy was down, but it will go up if Trump follows through with sanctions on India. India is buying Russian oil and financing the war.

You are too definitive in your opinion. And, I said, I know a lot of people hate Trump - not specifically stating you hate Trump. But, there are people who will argue the opposite simply because he is Trump and not consider the merit of the argument.

So if you are so historically driven, find a period in time where we have tariff-driven inflation, lower cost of energy, and a real effort to help grow an American revival in certain manufacturing sectors.

The fact that you won't even consider your views or take into account the actual cause of inflation makes your opinion less credible. Perhaps you could tone down the anger a bit and have an open discussion on what "type of inflation" is most dangerous to interest rates vs those that are more "helped by" cutting interest rates.

Again, I'm looking at supply being fine and tariffs driving price, so putting more dollars into American consumers hands would help to be able to buy what they are currently needing to buy - not pour dollars in to buy more junk they don't need.

And I will beg forgiveness on the earlier posts: I should have added the following caveat: BUT - the govt has to spend less and stop printing money otherwise it will just drive inflation back over 5%. So, while I'm in favor of a consumer interest rate cut it will only work if the govt stops spending so da*n much money.

Russia/India is transitory. Am I using that right???

But seriously, that is a momentary spike on crude oil markets. If India agrees and cuts off Russian oil - it will still make its way into the black market and get consumed. If Trump really wants to hurt Russia, they would embargo Russian oil which would start WW3 so he won't do that either. If the US pushes production to newer highs they could help offset some of that volatility, but would need help from other oil producing nations (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, etc) to mitigate the drop in legal Russian barrels on the market.

This is more symbolic with India than anything else. He is wanting to push India to choose: be friends with the US or be friends with Russia, BRICS, etc.

There is more here than just oil from Russia to India.

Source: Bloomberg

Rent/Shelter inflation slowed in June...

Rent inflation June 3.77% YoY, down from 3.80% in May and the lowest since Jan 2022

Shelter inflation June 3.80% YoY, down from 3.86% in May and the lowest since Oct 2021

LMCane said:

---

Source: Bloomberg

Rent/Shelter inflation slowed in June...

Rent inflation June 3.77% YoY, down from 3.80% in May and the lowest since Jan 2022

Shelter inflation June 3.80% YoY, down from 3.86% in May and the lowest since Oct 2021

---

Only because homes aren't selling and builders are offering rate buydowns to keep price inflated.

If sellers lowered prices to where demand actually was, real estate YOY would be deeply negative.

I've read speculation that it's really the bond rate that drives fed rate cuts, or some such. I have no clue, but agree if the fed has to exist it should be independent of politics.

Core CPI rose 0.2% in June, beating market expectations 0f 0.3%.

Since President Trump took office, core CPI is tracking 2.1% annualized, consistent with low & stable inflation.

(Headline CPI is tracking 1.8% annualized)

— Council of Economic Advisers (@CEA47) July 15, 2025

He cut rates .50 basis points when inflation was at 2.9%. I agree. He is a fool.

Energy was up last month after popping up after the Iran strike. The 8% decrease is the YoY number.

nortex97 said:

---

I've read speculation that it's really the bond rate that drives fed rate cuts, or some such. I have no clue, but agree if the fed has to exist it should be independent of politics.

Core CPI rose 0.2% in June, beating market expectations 0f 0.3%.

Since President Trump took office, core CPI is tracking 2.1% annualized, consistent with low & stable inflation.

(Headline CPI is tracking 1.8% annualized)

— Council of Economic Advisers (@CEA47) July 15, 2025

---

It's not speculation. Simply looking at a chart of bond yields with FED funds layered over it shows that the FED lags the bond market in both directions.

rathAG05 said:

---

He cut rates .50 basis points when inflation was at 2.9%. I agree. He is a fool.

---

The 10-year was below 4%. He was simply following on a lag like the FED always does. Little did he know bond market was putting in a bottom that same day.

We probably would have had rate cuts by now without the tariff stuff.

Even economists are only working off theory and some industry specific tariffs Trump did in 2019 as a roadmap here.

Powell was too late in raising rates in 2022. He doesn't want to fail on inflation again. He'd rather be late than early. And until the Fed has a good idea of what tariffs are doing to inflation, I doubt we see any movement on rates.

All one has to do is put down their phone, go to any store, and buy things to know that ****'s continuing to get more expensive.

More than makes any sense.

BoydCrowder13 said:

---

We probably would have had rate cuts by now without the tariff stuff.

---

Powell just said as much. He cut rates 25 bps in December after Trump won. If he were as partisan as some say, he would not have done that.

BoydCrowder13 said:

---

We probably would have had rate cuts by now without the tariff stuff.

Even economists are only working off theory and some industry specific tariffs Trump did in 2019 as a roadmap here.

Powell was too late in raising rates in 2022. He doesn't want to fail on inflation again. He'd rather be late than early. And until the Fed has a good idea of what tariffs are doing to inflation, I doubt we see any movement on rates.

---

My bigger concern is the Fed waiting for what they WANT tariffs to do to inflation.

It's just not credible to claim that cutting rates in an inflationary environment is a good thing. There are many examples worldwide where that turned out badly.

Since you think that could be good, the burden of proof is on you to demonstrate where that's been successfully done before. Please provide those proof points, and if they really exist, I will be very happy to reconsider my view.

Hey I'm not arguing! I just don't understand it all. This is one of those 'political' topics I just try not to get into trouble with. All I really know is it pisses me off that Obama/Biden got lower rates for 'their' economic times.

nortex97 said:

---

Hey I'm not arguing! I just don't understand it all. This is one of those 'political' topics I just try not to get into trouble with. All I really know is it pisses me off that Obama/Biden got lower rates for 'their' economic times.

---

Biden had the highest rates of any president in the last 20 years (2022-2024). Trump had multiple years at 0% interest rates and about 1 year where rates were 2%.

BoydCrowder13 said:

---

nortex97 said:

---

Hey I'm not arguing! I just don't understand it all. This is one of those 'political' topics I just try not to get into trouble with. All I really know is it pisses me off that Obama/Biden got lower rates for 'their' economic times.

---

Biden had the highest rates of any president in the last 20 years (2022-2024). Trump had multiple years at 0% interest rates and about 1 year where rates were 2%.

---

I don't think that is true, unless one excludes W's 2nd term. (Not sure why his first two years don't count, maybe you are excluding his brain death/full dementia.)

I also want to agree with HA that it doesn't actually track with CPI/inflation but rather the bond market, yet again I want to restate that I don't understand this stuff. The 2024 fed rate decisions sure didn't hurt Peepaw-Kamala, imho. Bidenflation though was quite real, and intentional.

So, we are at an impasse my friend.

There isn't a time in US history that has had inflation driven my tariffs over supply/demand so it is just postulating what would happen at this point. If the Fed doesn't cut rates and the economy slows, then I guess we'll know. Back in the late 1800s and early 1900's we had the "restriction period", but China and Amazon/Walmart didn't exist back then. I don't know how much of our economy relied on foreign made goods vs domestically made goods in 1920? I would have to go and study that time period and economic factors influencing those decisions and I'm too busy for that!

I guess keep an eye on GDP.

I will add this too: If we are to revive American made goods, then prices do have to come up since our cost of production is higher than most other countries. So, depending on the end goal of tariffs - whether to restart American industry or to "open up" other countries to American goods, that should also play a role in interest rates. Don't cut them if the goal is to have Americans buy more American made goods, but if the goal is to drive other countries tariffs up to force them to open their markets then we might want to consider it.

Red Red Wine said:

---

So, we are at an impasse my friend.

There isn't a time in US history that has had inflation driven my tariffs over supply/demand so it is just postulating what would happen at this point. If the Fed doesn't cut rates and the economy slows, then I guess we'll know. Back in the late 1800s and early 1900's we had the "restriction period", but China and Amazon/Walmart didn't exist back then. I don't know how much of our economy relied on foreign made goods vs domestically made goods in 1920? I would have to go and study that time period and economic factors influencing those decisions and I'm too busy for that!

I guess keep an eye on GDP.

I will add this too: If we are to revive American made goods, then prices do have to come up since our cost of production is higher than most other countries. So, depending on the end goal of tariffs - whether to restart American industry or to "open up" other countries to American goods, that should also play a role in interest rates. Don't cut them if the goal is to have Americans buy more American made goods, but if the goal is to drive other countries tariffs up to force them to open their markets then we might want to consider it.

---

Deregulate, massively
Cut taxes for everyone , even corporations
Gut spending

That's how you bring mfg back. Tariffs won't do it since the entire reason for it going away (govt skewing the markets) will still be there.

BoydCrowder13 said:

---

nortex97 said:

---

Hey I'm not arguing! I just don't understand it all. This is one of those 'political' topics I just try not to get into trouble with. All I really know is it pisses me off that Obama/Biden got lower rates for 'their' economic times.

---

Biden had the highest rates of any president in the last 20 years (2022-2024).

---

Biden also had the highest rate of inflation of any president in the last 20 years, so yeah, makes sense!

Quote:

---

Trump had multiple years at 0% interest rates

---

Trump had 0 rates only because of COVID, which was literally not even a year.

Quote:

---

and about 1 year where rates were 2%.

---

His highest rate was 2.5%, not 2%.

nortex97 said:

---

BoydCrowder13 said:

---

nortex97 said:

---

Hey I'm not arguing! I just don't understand it all. This is one of those 'political' topics I just try not to get into trouble with. All I really know is it pisses me off that Obama/Biden got lower rates for 'their' economic times.

---

Biden had the highest rates of any president in the last 20 years (2022-2024). Trump had multiple years at 0% interest rates and about 1 year where rates were 2%.

---

I don't think that is true, unless one excludes W's 2nd term. (Not sure why his first two years don't count, maybe you are excluding his brain death/full dementia.)

I also want to agree with HA that it doesn't actually track with CPI/inflation but rather the bond market, yet again I want to restate that I don't understand this stuff. The 2024 fed rate decisions sure didn't hurt Peepaw-Kamala, imho. Bidenflation though was quite real, and intentional.

---

Maybe stop posting about it if you don't understand it.

Nah, I don't think I will stop posting about inflation/peepaw's reign of shame. Breitbart has a great piece out this am too, complete with Powell checking his watch.

LOL. Inflation sounds like a nothingburger, again, though likely unrelated to the fed rate.

Logos Stick said:

---

BoydCrowder13 said:

---

nortex97 said:

---

Hey I'm not arguing! I just don't understand it all. This is one of those 'political' topics I just try not to get into trouble with. All I really know is it pisses me off that Obama/Biden got lower rates for 'their' economic times.

---

Biden had the highest rates of any president in the last 20 years (2022-2024).

---

Biden also had the highest rate of inflation rate of any president in the last 20 years, so yeah, makes sense!

Quote:

---

Trump had multiple years at 0% interest rates

---

Trump had 0 rates only because of COVID, which was literally not even a year.

Quote:

---

and about 1 year where rates were 2%.

---

His highest rate was 2.5%, not 2%.

---

Ok fine a slight exaggeration.

2017- Average rate at 1%
2018 - Average rate at 2%
2019 - Average rate at 2% (peaked to 2.5% in 2018 and then they started cutting again. Was down to 1.5% pre-COVID
2020 - Average rate at 0%

2021 - Average rate 0%
2022 - Average rate 3%
2023 - Average rate 5%
2024 - Average rate 4.5%

Biden should have high Fed rates with the inflation fiasco. But the "Biden had low rates and Trump had high rates" comment is patently false.