*** OFFICIAL House Race Thread ***

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AtticusMatlock
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1:29p, 11/10/24
Update in the OP:

My personal non-scientific call is still 222-213.


As it stands now, the AP has:

GOP: 213
DEM: 202

Need 218 for a majority.

GOP HIGHLY LIKELY TO WIN (have already been called by other media): 2
AZ 1
IA 1

This gets them to 215.

Currently heavy lean GOP : 2
AK 1 - Likely going to ranked choice, GOP *should* be favored in that scenario. Hyper-conservative / libertarian 3rd party is in 3rd place.
CA 22 (GOP lost a small portion of lead in last dump but still lead by 7% with 76% reporting)

This gets them to 217.

Lean GOP with slight chance of D comeback: 2
AZ 6 - Dem chances are diminishing
CO 8 - GOP lead by 0.78% (2,596 votes) with 92% in. The red area on the map is only 85% reported while the blue Denver suburbs are >95% in. Not an insignificant population in red area. Not sure math adds up for a Dem comeback but it is possible.


***************This is 219 and wins the majority.******************

To pad the lead:

Toss ups slightly leaning GOP: 3
CA 13 - GOP leads by 3% with 62% in. No new results posted since the 8th.
CA 41 - GOP leads by 3% with 61% in. GOP gained in today's ballot dump.
CA 45 - GOP lead by 3% with 79% in. GOP lead slightly less today. GOP incumbent Michelle Steel is popular in a purple district and won by 5% in 2022. Hopefully she hangs on here. Lead has gone from 9360 at 72% to 6901 at 79%. Most of the outstanding vote is in Orange County which should be favorable to her.

This gets to 222.

Toss ups leaning Dem: 3
CA 27 - GOP incumbent Mike Garcia losing ground. Dem takes the lead in today's ballot dump with 81% in.
CA 47 - Dem lead increases with 81% in
CA 21 - Dem lead (no new ballots since last updates) 63% in


IF THESE RESULTS HOLD:
GOP 222
DEM 213
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fredfredunderscorefred
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In reply to AtticusMatlock • 1:33p, 11/10/24
AG
AtticusMatlock said:
Update in the OP:

My personal non-scientific call is still 222-213.


As it stands now, the AP has:

GOP: 213
DEM: 202

Need 218 for a majority.

GOP HIGHLY LIKELY TO WIN (have already been called by other media): 2
AZ 1
IA 1

This gets them to 215.

Currently heavy lean GOP : 2
AK 1 - Likely going to ranked choice, GOP *should* be favored in that scenario. Hyper-conservative / libertarian 3rd party is in 3rd place.
CA 22 (GOP lost a small portion of lead in last dump but still lead by 7% with 76% reporting)

This gets them to 217.

Lean GOP with slight chance of D comeback: 2
AZ 6 - Dem chances are diminishing
CO 8 - GOP lead by 0.78% (2,596 votes) with 92% in. The red area on the map is only 85% reported while the blue Denver suburbs are >95% in. Not an insignificant population in red area. Not sure math adds up for a Dem comeback but it is possible.


***************This is 219 and wins the majority.******************

To pad the lead:

Toss ups slightly leaning GOP: 3
CA 13 - GOP leads by 3% with 62% in. No new results posted since the 8th.
CA 41 - GOP leads by 3% with 61% in. GOP gained in today's ballot dump.
CA 45 - GOP lead by 3% with 79% in. GOP lead slightly less today. GOP incumbent Michelle Steel is popular in a purple district and won by 5% in 2022. Hopefully she hangs on here. Lead has gone from 9360 at 72% to 6901 at 79%. Most of the outstanding vote is in Orange County which should be favorable to her.

This gets to 222.

Toss ups leaning Dem: 3
CA 27 - GOP incumbent Mike Garcia losing ground. Dem takes the lead in today's ballot dump with 81% in.
CA 47 - Dem lead increases with 81% in
CA 21 - Dem lead (no new ballots since last updates) 63% in


IF THESE RESULTS HOLD:
GOP 222
DEM 213


Thank you. Very informative. Sorry if it is factored in or discussed. How does WA 4 play into this? Is it part of the 213? It appears both are Rs. Thanks!
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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to fredfredunderscorefred • 1:34p, 11/10/24
It's already factored into the 213.
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fredfredunderscorefred
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In reply to AtticusMatlock • 1:34p, 11/10/24
AG
AtticusMatlock said:
It's already factored into the 213.

Thank you!
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IDaggie06
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2:39p, 11/10/24
AG
The fact the house control may come down to California taking a week to count their ballots scares the hell out of me. Never. Trust. Democrats.
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jamieboy2014
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In reply to IDaggie06 • 3:07p, 11/10/24
AG
IDaggie06 said:
The fact the house control may come down to California taking a week to count their ballots scares the hell out of me. Never. Trust. Democrats.
You say this but this happens EVERY TIME in Cali and the Repubs in those rural valley districts ALWAYS over perform expectations and pull it out.

That's just how it is.
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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to IDaggie06 • 3:18p, 11/10/24
It was the same in 2022. The Republican Party does a very good job out there maximizing their voter output in a very challenging gerrymandered environment.
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Bayou City
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5:37p, 11/10/24
R declared winner of CO-8
"I've lived through some terrible things in my life, some of which have actually happened."

Mark Twain
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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to Bayou City • 5:44p, 11/10/24
They just had a big ballot dump and the GOP guy actually gained a little bit. Greater than 95% in. AP has not called it yet but it will be a big flip for the GOP. Somewhat of a surprising pick up.

Third party candidates may have played spoiler for the Democrat but I don't care. The win will be by about 3,500 to 4,000 votes. Third parties garnered about 9,000.
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Philip J Fry
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5:48p, 11/10/24
AG
Don't need AP to call it. Caraveo conceded.

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/colorado/news/yadira-caraveo-gabe-evans-colorado-8th-congressional-district/
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Gunny456
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In reply to AtticusMatlock • 5:48p, 11/10/24
AG
So what's that bring it up to? And what's left?

Thanks again for all your hard work doing this. Much obliged!
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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to Gunny456 • 5:52p, 11/10/24
Still looking like the number is going to be 222. Hoping Garcia in CA can pull a rabbit out of his hat again and win another nail biter like he did in 2020 to make it 223 but we will see. He has a very well-funded and marketable opponent in this election.
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UntoldSpirit
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5:54p, 11/10/24
AG
Nobody calling CO 8. AP won't call AZ 1 or CA 22. It does get frustrating.
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AtticusMatlock
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5:55p, 11/10/24
Also should note Arizona 6 is still nerve-racking. GOP lost a little bit of ground in the last dump. Still barely ahead. Pima County still has several thousand votes outstanding and running he's well behind there.
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Gunny456
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In reply to AtticusMatlock • 5:57p, 11/10/24
AG
Great. Thanks again sir!
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UntoldSpirit
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In reply to AtticusMatlock • 6:09p, 11/10/24
AG
AtticusMatlock said:
Also should note Arizona 6 is still nerve-racking. GOP lost a little bit of ground in the last dump. Still barely ahead. Pima County still has several thousand votes outstanding and running he's well behind there.
How many are outstanding? Even 10,000 at 10% margin is only 1000 votes.

What about the drop that was supposed to happen out of Cochise where Ciscomani has been winning by 20 points? Don't think that has happened yet.

Edit.
It looks to me like there might be at most 5000 left in Pima. At 10%. that's 500 votes for Engel.
It looks like there might be 1000 votes left in Cochise. At 20% that's 200 votes for Ciscomani.

That would mean Ciscomani could lose another 300 votes, but he's up by over 2000.

I'm sure that back of the envelope calculation is probably flawed, but at least it gives me hope.
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Texaspainter
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6:15p, 11/10/24
AG
Why TF are states STILL counting votes? It's ridiculous already. This should have been completed on Tuesday night! Geez!
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Philip J Fry
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6:19p, 11/10/24
AG
California accepts mail in ballots as late as Tuesday (day after tomorrow). So those won't be called until Tuesday night
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Martin Cash
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 6:50p, 11/10/24
AG
Philip J Fry said:
California accepts mail in ballots as late as Tuesday (day after tomorrow). So those won't be called until Tuesday night
That is absurd and should be illegal.
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UntoldSpirit
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7:00p, 11/10/24
AG
If all of these 27K ballots in Cochise count for District 6, its gonna be big for Ciscomani. Race may be called after this for GOP unless there are tens of thousands of votes left to be counted in Pima.



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Bulldog73
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7:43p, 11/10/24
AG
RealClear has called CO 8. 217 for GOP.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2024/house/
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UntoldSpirit
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9:17p, 11/10/24
AG
AP finally calls AZ 1. They have GOP 214 now.

AP =214 GOP, 203 Dem

Dec. Desk = 216 GOP, 209 Dem (Added CA 22 & IA 1 for GOP)

RCP = 217 GOP, 208 Dem (Added CA22, IA 1 & CO 8 for GOP)
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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to UntoldSpirit • 11:56p, 11/10/24
Per NYT

Pima is a massive county. Someone with math skills can model this out but it looks close.
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to AtticusMatlock • 12:08a, 11/11/24
AG
Asked ChatGPT to analyze. Here's the answer.

Quote:
The final projected tallies across all five counties are:

Engel: 220,931 votes
Ciscomani: 226,809 votes

This indicates a narrow lead for Ciscomani based on the projections for each county. Let me know if you need further details or a breakdown!
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sharpdressedman
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In reply to Bulldog73 • 1:34a, 11/11/24
Bulldog73 said:
RealClear has called CO 8. 217 for GOP.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2024/house/
Thank you very much for the link!
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ts5641
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5:20a, 11/11/24
Fox has GOP at 214. Decision Desk has them at 216. RCP has them at 217. What the hell is going on?
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Bayou City
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In reply to ts5641 • 6:04a, 11/11/24
Same as always. Different agencies Call races differently.
"I've lived through some terrible things in my life, some of which have actually happened."

Mark Twain
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MagnumLoad
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7:06a, 11/11/24
Either counting is hard or they are accepting ballots coming in 6 days after election day, which needs to stop.
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Bulldog73
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8:02a, 11/11/24
AG
in case anyone wonders about what is up with Alaska-
https://alaskabeacon.com/2024/11/06/no-leaders-change-as-1500-more-ballots-are-added-to-alaskas-election-count/

The gist-
Quote:
More important to the state's closest races is the number of uncounted early and absentee ballots. Those are not scheduled for counting until Nov. 12 at the earliest.

According to figures released by the division, 21,811 early votes remain to be counted, based on the number of early votes through Oct. 31 the cutoff for inclusion on Election Day and the total number of early votes before Election Day.
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LMCane
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8:03a, 11/11/24
Twitter reporting that the GOP holds the House
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nortex97
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In reply to Bulldog73 • 8:05a, 11/11/24
AG
He's up 4 percent or so.
Quote:
With 390 of 403 precincts now reporting results, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump still leads by a wide margin, and Republican U.S. House candidate Nick Begich saw his lead over Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola shrink only slightly.
As of the end of the day Wednesday, Begich had 49.5% of the vote and Peltola 45.4%. Alaskan Independence Party candidate John Wayne Howe is in third with 3.9%, and imprisoned out-of-state Democratic candidate Eric Hafner is fourth with less than 1%.
Twelve of the remaining uncounted Election Day precincts are in rural locations off the road system.
Never know with 'late' ballot counts, but it's unlikely the mostly rural locations break heavily for the communist, imho.
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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to nortex97 • 8:27a, 11/11/24
A lot of the rural vote is Native and they tend to vote Democrat. Peltola is a member of a Native Alaskan tribe.

If it goes to ranked choice though those second place votes from the Alaskan Independence party will almost certainly break heavily for the GOP. They are all about gun rights, social conservatism, limited government, privatization of almost everything.
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Bulldog73
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In reply to Bulldog73 • 9:12a, 11/11/24
AG
Bulldog73 said:
in case anyone wonders about what is up with Alaska-
https://alaskabeacon.com/2024/11/06/no-leaders-change-as-1500-more-ballots-are-added-to-alaskas-election-count/

The gist-
Quote:
More important to the state's closest races is the number of uncounted early and absentee ballots. Those are not scheduled for counting until Nov. 12 at the earliest.

According to figures released by the division, 21,811 early votes remain to be counted, based on the number of early votes through Oct. 31 the cutoff for inclusion on Election Day and the total number of early votes before Election Day.
OK, Alaska is WEIRD.https://alaskapublic.org/2024/11/06/race-for-alaskas-congressional-seat-tilts-begich-in-early-results/

Ranked choice (how Palin got eliminated a couple of times, weird city vs rural dynamics, about 100 (exaggeration) ways to early vote, including by fax, extended vote count deadlines. We may not know how Alaska goes until Thanksgiving (no exaggeration),
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MagnumLoad
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9:32a, 11/11/24
Politics is a hot mess and always has been. Fortunately the form of government in the USA as established by the founders was brilliant, and has kept us from going too far off center ever since. Paraphrasing an unknown quote (maybe Andrew Jackson; a monarchy is like a great sailing ship until it strikes a reef and sinks, but our republic is like a raft that never sinks, but our feet are always wet.
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twk
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In reply to nortex97 • 10:29a, 11/11/24
AG
nortex97 said:
He's up 4 percent or so.
Quote:
With 390 of 403 precincts now reporting results, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump still leads by a wide margin, and Republican U.S. House candidate Nick Begich saw his lead over Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola shrink only slightly.
As of the end of the day Wednesday, Begich had 49.5% of the vote and Peltola 45.4%. Alaskan Independence Party candidate John Wayne Howe is in third with 3.9%, and imprisoned out-of-state Democratic candidate Eric Hafner is fourth with less than 1%.
Twelve of the remaining uncounted Election Day precincts are in rural locations off the road system.
Never know with 'late' ballot counts, but it's unlikely the mostly rural locations break heavily for the communist, imho.
Begich will not be caught in the first choice voting, but he won't quite have a majority, so it will go to that ranked choice stupidity. You have to think that most of those Alaskan Independence votes (10,000) will skew towards Begich as their second choice, but you never know. I'm thinking it will be weeks before this one is called.
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