fullback44 said:

---

ts5641 said:

---

Decision Desk went from 92.9% chance of GOP control yesterday to 81% today.
Are they going to steal the House? Right now they're projecting 220 for the GOP which is down from 224 projection a few days ago.
The fact these are taking this long tells you the cheat is in progress.

---

It's a way to start controlling Trump, it's that simple. GOP will not get the house, this is all being drawn out to ease the "they are cheating" crowd… even though we all know what's going on.

---

We only need 2 more seats. We'll keep the majority. Calm down.

AtticusMatlock said:

---

CA 13, 22, and 27 are actually Dem gerrymandered districts per Cook Political Report. 13 is D+4, 22 is D+5, 27 is D+4.

13 is currently R+3
27 is 50/50 (just like 2022)
Margin in 22 is R+9. Big swing.

---

Like I've said multiple times, all 3 of those districts have CONTINUOUSLY outperformed pollster expectations and the Cook PVI (going back even before the lines changed in 2020).

They are semi-rural districts with high Latino populations. All three Republicans in those districts have Hispanic heritage and know how to run campaigns in those districts.

Need some extras in case some jackass wants to flip parties

jamieboy2014 said:

---

fullback44 said:

---

ts5641 said:

---

Decision Desk went from 92.9% chance of GOP control yesterday to 81% today.
Are they going to steal the House? Right now they're projecting 220 for the GOP which is down from 224 projection a few days ago.
The fact these are taking this long tells you the cheat is in progress.

---

It's a way to start controlling Trump, it's that simple. GOP will not get the house, this is all being drawn out to ease the "they are cheating" crowd… even though we all know what's going on.

---

We only need 2 more seats. We'll keep the majority. Calm down.

---

I hope I'm wrong and you are correct. Where are you seeing we have 216 already?

Real Clear Politics is showing 216

fullback44 said:

---

jamieboy2014 said:

---

fullback44 said:

---

ts5641 said:

---

Decision Desk went from 92.9% chance of GOP control yesterday to 81% today.
Are they going to steal the House? Right now they're projecting 220 for the GOP which is down from 224 projection a few days ago.
The fact these are taking this long tells you the cheat is in progress.

---

It's a way to start controlling Trump, it's that simple. GOP will not get the house, this is all being drawn out to ease the "they are cheating" crowd… even though we all know what's going on.

---

We only need 2 more seats. We'll keep the majority. Calm down.

---

I hope I'm wrong and you are correct. Where are you seeing we have 216 already?

---

DDHQ which has called all races for President, Senate AND House before everyone else and has been accurate each time. In fact the only prediction the retracted was Harris winning Virginia early on. The retracted that prediction after more ballot drops came through that were unexpected but they wound up switching it back anyway. And she did indeed carry Virginia.

Yep. The only one I'm really concerned about is Garcia's district, CA 27. He won in 2020 by 300ish votes. 2022 he won by about 7% but this year it looks like it's going down to the wire again.

He's up by about 1,000 votes against a very well funded and politically connected opponent who was a high level NASA admin and former CEO of Virgin Galactic.

I think this district was a big flip focus for the Democrats.

Still hoping for a GOP flip of 47 but that one was always going to be tougher. I hate how they split up Orange County.

Can anyone explain what happens with AK 1 when the republican does not receive 50%? What happens exactly since there is rank choice voting?

It so crazy that they cant get a house race counted on election night.

Editing for clarity. Apparently the way Alaska works is different than other ranked choice places.

If no one is at 50%, on November 20th they will calculate the second place votes of the others and distribute them among the top two.

The rural vote is what's taking forever and this will likely favor the Democrat. The Alaska Independence party got so many votes and I just can't see the Republican not picking up the majority of them.

Kozmozag said:

---

It so crazy that they cant get a house race counted on election night.

---

They only have one. So it is statewide.

Thanks Atticus. You have an impressive wealth of knowledge. And let me thank you again for this thread.

AggieRain said:

---

Real Clear Politics is showing 216

---

And this guy named Eric Hafner is running in 4th place as a Dem. He finished in 13th place in the primary but everyone above him dropped out except for the top three.

He is taking away several thousand votes from the Democrat incumbent.

A lot of people who are voting have no idea who he is.

He has never been to Alaska. He is a federal prison inmate in New York. He's convicted of calling in bomb threats and is serving a 20-year sentence.

The Democrats tried to sue to keep him off the ballot, but federal law does not actually prohibit him from running in a state where he never resided. The federal law only states you have to move into the state after you are elected. The Alaska Supreme Court basically had no choice but to leave him on the ballot.

Nice drop for GOP in AZ 6. Looking much better there. Was nervous about that one the other day but looking like it will be a GOP hold. (yeah yeah yeah some people here told me so)

I'm seeing that real clear politics now has it at 217 to 208.

OregonAggie said:

---

Just wanted to say thanks for doing this! Sure beats clicking on multiple articles!

---

This.

I keep checking the fox tracker online, but I don't go around as much as y'all do I really appreciate it.

The count is very confusing.

On RCP, the count is 217. AP has 213.

RCP/DD has called these that AP has NOT called:

CA 22
AZ 1
IA 1

That's would only put AP at 216 if AP were to call them. There's one seat missing that I can't account for.

RCP/DD and AP have both not called:
AK 1
CA 41.45.13
AZ 6
CO 8

One of the seats uncalled in some places could be WA 4. It is two Republicans against each other. Some have it already baked in as a GOP hold and some haven't because the winner hadn't been called. Just a spitball.

AtticusMatlock said:

---

One of the seats uncalled in some places could be WA 4. It is two Republicans against each other. Some have it already baked in as a GOP hold and some haven't because the winner hadn't been called. Just a spitball.

---

RCP has called WA4 and is part of their 217.
But AP shows it as being called as well. Maybe it really isn't counted in the 213. I'm still confused.

RCP now says GOP have 218

Came to post this.

One thing that needs to change is this ridiculous gerrymandering that the democrats were able to do. The house should not have been this close

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2024/house/

218 seats

So 218 is official?

That seals the deal…

Philip J Fry said:

---

Came to post this.

One thing that needs to change is this ridiculous gerrymandering that the democrats were able to do. The house should not have been this close

---

Don't know what it looks like nationwide. But most gop seats in Texas are blowouts. Then the Dems have several close ones. Prob more than their fair share. That could be fixed

TAMU1990 said:

---

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2024/house/

218 seats

---

It says 217 on my screen.

TAMU1990 said:

---

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2024/house/

218 seats

---

Weird. I was looking over this results page and it refreshed and changed the 218 back to 216.

Now its back to 216!

Bulldog73 said:

---

Now its back to 216!

---

Yeah, not sure what they are smoking over there. Actually 216 makes sense given what races they have called.

AtticusMatlock said:

---

Nice drop for GOP in AZ 6. Looking much better there. Was nervous about that one the other day but looking like it will be a GOP hold. (yeah yeah yeah some people here told me so)

---

I was one of those people.

But in all seriousness, I'm as happy as you are my friend.

Juan Ciscomani is a strong candidate and a well known figure in Arizona as he used to work for Governor Doug Ducey's administration.

Not near the talk about this on this forum as I thought. The race has tightened. 216-209 on Decision Desk. Chances for GOP control dropped from 93% yesterday to 80.5% today.
Is there any way they can cheat their way to a House win?

They've done it before. So yes

ts5641 said:

---

Not near the talk about this on this forum as I thought. The race has tightened. 216-209 on Decision Desk. Chances for GOP control dropped from 93% yesterday to 80.5% today.
Is there any way they can cheat their way to a House win?

---

Yes, definitely. Extended vote counting in CA for starters.

The bomb threats on Friday afternoon in Orange County, the Sheriff's Department "evacuated" poll observers and watchers while keeping the poll workers in a segregated room still in the facility while the search for a BOMB contiued. Ballots were unsecured.

I should be posting an update within the next hour or so. Going over some math in terms of votes remaining versus current margins. I think things are actually looking pretty good for the GOP except for one race.

ts5641 said:

---

Not near the talk about this on this forum as I thought. The race has tightened. 216-209 on Decision Desk. Chances for GOP control dropped from 93% yesterday to 80.5% today.
Is there any way they can cheat their way to a House win?

---

I don't think they can do it.

Using DD standards, you only need 2 more calls, and they haven't called AK 1 which seems very likely to go GOP even if the republican doesn't make the 50% needed to avoid the rank voting process.

That leaves one more seat out of three in California, one in Arizona, and one in Colorado where the GOP leads late in all of them.

I don't know why the odds are as low as 80%. Seems way more likely to me.