*** OFFICIAL House Race Thread ***

53,927 Views | 398 Replies | Last: 1 day ago by jamieboy2014
AtticusMatlock
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maxag42 said:

How are they still not done counting??


Vote by mail takes forever to count.

And if I'm not mistaken California election workers are unionized and only work so much per day.
aggiehawg
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FTAG 2000 said:

maxag42 said:

How are they still not done counting??


Waiting on runbeck to produce enough ballots in AZ, and the culinary union to make enough for NV.
Sadly, that is more likely than not.
rausr
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jamieboy2014
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texsn95 said:

Hoping, nervous...
Don't be. The odds are practically insurmountable for the Dems at this point.

Those 3 Cali districts (Garcia, Duarte and Valadao) always outperform from pollster expectations in favor of the moderate Republicans.

Those are the "scariest" districts left.
Silvertaps
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texsn95 said:

Hoping, nervous...
I've been pretty confident since late yesterday afternoon that Rs will get the majority...I'm just hoping for a good cushion at this point (224 would be ideal).
UntoldSpirit
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It looks like the 210th GOP pickup was actually WA 4 as you suggested.

jamieboy2014
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Silvertaps said:

texsn95 said:

Hoping, nervous...
I've been pretty confident since late yesterday afternoon that Rs will get the majority...I'm just hoping for a good cushion at this point (224 would be ideal).
Alaska definitely looks to flip which would help with that for sure.
AtticusMatlock
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Dang it AP. That's what I thought it was but I didn't want to take the time to manually count all the races.
AtticusMatlock
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Minor update -

AZ 6 the Dem got a good ballot drop and just took the lead by 70 votes. Still a lot to count. I'm LESS confident the seat stays red. Tucson area still has the most outstanding votes and it looks like the Dem is way out in front there. This was a surprise GOP win in 2022 in a district that should lean Dem in most years.

Crane still way up in AZ 2, not sure why they haven't called this one yet or CA 40 where Kim is up 13 points with 71% of the vote in.

Iowa 1 with a small ballot update. They are scraping bottom of barrel. Miller-Meeks still leads by 797 votes.
maxag42
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Still wild it's taking this long. I really hope there are large numbers of poll watchers on their asses making sure they are doing their job.
UntoldSpirit
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AtticusMatlock said:

Minor update -

AZ 6 the Dem got a good ballot drop and just took the lead by 70 votes.
Republican Ciscomani now up 817 votes.
whatthehey78
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Sorry for asking...how many undetermined seats are still leaning red? TIA!
Alexander, Caesar, Charlemagne, and myself founded empires; but upon what foundation did we rest the creations of our genius? Upon force! But Jesus Christ founded His upon love; and at this hour millions of men would die for Him. - Napoleon Bonaparte
Bayou City
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Current estmate is 221 R
"I've lived through some terrible things in my life, some of which have actually happened."

Mark Twain
AtticusMatlock
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I'll have to see where that one came from but Tucson being the most populated area and still having about 20% out doesn't give me a lot of hope he's going to hang on. I'll try to stay optimistic though. I think he's starting to run out of good ballot drops.
AtticusMatlock
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whatthehey78 said:

Sorry for asking...how many undetermined seats are still leaning red? TIA!


Right now the GOP is at 210 and leads in 13 more races. They are surprisingly competitive in one of the other California districts where they are barely trailing. I think the floor is probably 221 but my best guess is it is going to be 222. AZ 6 is going to be tough and down to the wire, but I think they will pull off one of the tight California races to put them back to 222. Theoretical max based on what I'm looking at now is probably 224.
whatthehey78
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Will the counts end tonight or will they just stop and resume tomorrow?
Alexander, Caesar, Charlemagne, and myself founded empires; but upon what foundation did we rest the creations of our genius? Upon force! But Jesus Christ founded His upon love; and at this hour millions of men would die for Him. - Napoleon Bonaparte
MagnumLoad
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aggiehawg said:

FTAG 2000 said:

maxag42 said:

How are they still not done counting??


Waiting on runbeck to produce enough ballots in AZ, and the culinary union to make enough for NV.
Sadly, that is more likely than not.

So they are so stupid they don't want no tax on tips ? Cannot fix stupid. Awful disease
Bayou City
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Could be over a week or more
"I've lived through some terrible things in my life, some of which have actually happened."

Mark Twain
MagnumLoad
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Counting is hard
AtticusMatlock
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whatthehey78 said:

Will the counts end tonight or will they just stop and resume tomorrow?


Likely done for the night. California government employees are unionized and there's probably a hard cut off at 5:00pm local time. Arizona is slow as hell because of how they process their mail-in ballots.
AtticusMatlock
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CA 40 finally called by the AP.
RGLAG85
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AtticusMatlock said:

CA 40 finally called by the AP.
Does that put it at 211?
UntoldSpirit
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RGLAG85 said:

AtticusMatlock said:

CA 40 finally called by the AP.
Does that put it at 211?
Yes. 211. 7 more races needed for GOP.
AtticusMatlock
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Neb 2 update from NYT:

Quote:


The remaining ballots in the district most of which are in Douglas County are a mix of early ballots received on Election Day, provisional ballots and ballots that were not able to be read by a tabulator. The county plans to post some results on Friday.

GOP leads by 8,331 votes. Douglas County is Omaha area. Per the Omaha News Herald there are 15,000 ballots left in that county to count and over half will be announced Friday.

Math doesn't add up for the Dem to come back. They are only winning Douglas County by less than 4%.

They would need to win 78% or so of the remaining ballots to come back.

DDHQ/The Hill has called this race already and the GOP incumbent has declared victory. I think after the ballot drop in the AM we will see an AP call for the GOP.
AtticusMatlock
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Looking over it again this morning I'm feeling better about the Republicans winning California 47. Orange County area.
jja79
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aggiehawg said:

FTAG 2000 said:

maxag42 said:

How are they still not done counting??


Waiting on runbeck to produce enough ballots in AZ, and the culinary union to make enough for NV.
Sadly, that is more likely than not.


This was my first general election in Arizona and I now have even less confidence in election integrity than I did before.
Muy
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It's 3 effing days after Election Day!
LMCane
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jja79 said:

aggiehawg said:

FTAG 2000 said:

maxag42 said:

How are they still not done counting??


Waiting on runbeck to produce enough ballots in AZ, and the culinary union to make enough for NV.
Sadly, that is more likely than not.


This was my first general election in Arizona and I now have even less confidence in election integrity than I did before.

the "RECORDER" of Maricopa county - whatever that is

was just elected and a Republican

Florida has already publicly offered to assist Arizona with their elections.

with Trump romping in AZ hopefully they can pressure them for improvements the next four years.

it's shameful in Arizona!
Central Committee
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What makes keeping the House red so sweet is that the NY state progressives thought they would turn the House blue by gerrymandering 5 Republican seats out of existence in one of the most egregious instances of gerrymandering ever heard of.

55% of that state voted for Heels Up Harris, but the Dems now control 76% of the House seats from that state.
We may not always get what we want. We may not always get what we need. Just so we don't get what we deserve.
aggiehawg
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jja79 said:

aggiehawg said:

FTAG 2000 said:

maxag42 said:

How are they still not done counting??


Waiting on runbeck to produce enough ballots in AZ, and the culinary union to make enough for NV.
Sadly, that is more likely than not.


This was my first general election in Arizona and I now have even less confidence in election integrity than I did before.
As you should. I know far more about how their election procedures were so messed up than I ever wanted to know. And the recalcitrance and arrogance of the county election officials when just asked to do their jobs if appalling.

In 2022, I was watching those midterms very closely throughout the day of the election. Gates and Richer came out and flat out lied to the public who were experiencing long lines and tabulator issues across 60% of the polling centers. They told the voters, even after they had checked in, they could go to another polling center tov vote. One problem, when they got there, the poll books said they had already voted. They needed to be checked out of the system showing they did not in fact vote but most of the poll workers handling voter check in didn't even knw how to check them out of the electronic poll books. I was screaming at the TV when they were saying that. Plus they used what they called Box three for ballots that could not be tabulated at the time that voters could put their ballots into with the promise they would be counted "later."

Thos Box Threes were on the front of the tabulator with a cardboard partition between ballots that had been tabulated from those still needing to be counted. Guess what happened when poll workers tried to empty the bins? The partition fell out and they were all intermingled. No way to separate them and determine which was which.
AtticusMatlock
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Still waiting on that NE 2 ballot drop from Douglas County. They said yesterday that they would release some numbers this morning.
CrockerAg98
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jja79 said:

aggiehawg said:

FTAG 2000 said:

maxag42 said:

How are they still not done counting??


Waiting on runbeck to produce enough ballots in AZ, and the culinary union to make enough for NV.
Sadly, that is more likely than not.


This was my first general election in Arizona and I now have even less confidence in election integrity than I did before.
Yeah, not a whole lot here to give you the warm and fuzzies. Blockbuster was more vigilant about their drop box than any polling site I've seen around here.
AtticusMatlock
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CA 22 should be called for GOP soon. Valadao is up 10%. He won in 2022 by 3%. He's running against the same guy.

CA 13 was a flip in 2022 with Duarte winning by just 0.4%. He's currently up 2.8%



f burg ag
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AtticusMatlock said:

Still waiting on that NE 2 ballot drop from Douglas County. They said yesterday that they would release some numbers this morning.
If my math is right, there are only 17k votes left in that race and Bacon is up by >8k. Vargas would have to get over 75% of the remaining votes, and that seems very unrealistic.
AtticusMatlock
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Especially since the county with all the votes is only voting for the Democrat by about 4%.
 
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