Update

AtticusMatlock said:

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titan said:

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Does Speaker Johnson have some inside knowledge on the makeup of the remaining races districts or something? He seems very assured they will get/retain the House. If any might know, its him.

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There are only something like 22 ultracompetitive races this year due to redistricting and gerrymandering. Much easier to track votes and keep up with everything this time.

The GOP CA districts look good and most will likely win by larger margins than in 2022. AZ will look good once they finally start running the ED vote through their machines.

I think the three PA close races are going to be called very soon for the GOP.

To put it the way the NYT does, on top of the five obvious GOP wins that have yet to be called due to counting delays there are 35 uncalled races that could technically go either way. The GOP has to win 13 of those to win the House. They are ahead in 17 and will likely gain the lead in an 18th.

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Thanks for that excellent overview. Certainly answers the question where Johnson's outlook is coming from.

AZ 5 and CO 5 just called for the GOP.

VA2 called for the GOP.

820pm update: One more call for the GOP and another one likely to follow soon by the AP.

How's it looking now?

Decision Desk has it forecast to be 222-213 right now, 89 percent chance of GOP holding the House. Dems would pretty much need to sweep the remainder, with around 5 very close to being called for the GOP at this point.

Sad that Lily Williams in VT lost, but only by 6% (she was down over 17 I think before she trounced the snobbish commie at the debate).

The Iowa race is really close, hope to hold on there, up around 800 votes with 95% in.

nortex97 said:

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Decision Desk has it forecast to be 222-213 right now, 89 percent chance of GOP holding the House. Dems would pretty much need to sweep the remainder, with around 5 very close to being called for the GOP at this point.

Sad that Lily Williams in VT lost, but only by 6% (she was down over 17 I think before she trounced the snobbish commie at the debate).

The Iowa race is really close, hope to hold on there, up around 800 votes with 95% in.

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Thanks for the update. As long as we keep the House we can actually get some things done. No fake impeachments, no holding on to money, no refusing to pass legislation, no ripping up the speech behind the president.

Morning update: Nothing new in terms of calls yet but just going over some things on the trends.

CA races are trending almost exactly like 2022. There was a mini red wave out there in the last election and it looks like it is holding up, and even growing in some areas. Young Kim (GOP Rep in CA 40) is trending 3 points better than in 2022 when she won by 10 points. The gerrymandered red areas of CA seem to be getting redder.

The designed "competitive" districts in CA are trending red as well.

CA 47 is a competitive district and potential flip opportunity with Dem Katie Porter not running for reelection. The GOP candidate Baugh is running slightly ahead.

Remember in CA there are a lot of mail ballots that will take forever to count but the GOP is pushing mail there too, so as they come in and get counted there are not necessarily going to be wild swings.

Nebraska 2 needs to be called. Big hold for GOP in an area the Dems spent a lot of money trying to flip.

MD 6 is a blue district but agonizingly close. The Dem looks like she will squeak out the win as more ballots come in.

222-213 seems like the most probable outcome, but with an upset in CA47 we could see 223-212.

GOP was hoping to flip OH 9 but the incumbent Dem looks set to win by 1,100 votes. The Libertarian got 15,000.

11/7 11am update:

• No new calls yet, but a good drop an hour ago for AZ 6 to slightly grow the lead.
• More vote in this morning in CO 3 and the GOP candidate is still well ahead. This one is all but certain.
• Frustrated PA 7, 8, 10 haven't been called for GOP yet but they will.
• No new drops yet for IA 1 but there's almost nothing left to count. This one will go to an auto recount but Miller-Meeks is much, much, much further ahead at 799 votes than she was at this time in 2022.
• Dem still ahead by 348 votes in MD 6 after a small ballot drop an hour ago.
• Two more obvious Dem districts have finally been called. Already factored in and will not change House math for control.

Colorado 3 was just called for GOP. Expected.

Another expected Dem districted called.

206-192 as it stands now.

And oh boy -- new one to keep an eye on: CA 21. It is swinging RIGHT. Dems were expected to win this one easily but it is now a 0.86% margin.

Thanks for these updates.

Maine 2 just updated with another batch. Not called yet but the Dems are going to hold it. Trump carried this district. A lot of split tickets.

No chance for Maryland 6?

Most of the outstanding vote in MD 6 is in Rockdale where the Dem has a 70-30 split.

AtticusMatlock said:

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Most of the outstanding vote in MD 6 is in Rockdale where the Dem has a 70-30 split.

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Thanks.

AtticusMatlock said:

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That's kind of how I'm seeing it too. The California vote is going to come in slow but if 2020 is an indication it is not going to hurt the Republicans. They've gone all in in mail-in balloting so you're not going to see the huge swing toward the Democrats late. Generally the same ratios will hold up and the GOP is up in those competitive districts.

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I have been hearing the more California reports, the more votes Trump is picking up!

Would not be shocked if from here on out we only see one update per day from most districts in California. They are not in a hurry.

Hoping, nervous...

OP updated.

CO-8 is getting closer but I dont know if Evans will be able to make up the deficit.

Doubtful. Denver suburbs still have 20% of their expected vote coming in and its 55-45 Dem. 13% of the red-heavy area is left to count but the raw numbers probably aren't there for the GOP candidate. Gerrymandered district.

Whats the number R's need to get to for majority?

They need to get to 218 to have a one-seat majority. If current results hold they will have 223.

Lots of crazy stuff can happen in the house since its a herd of cats so the bigger the buffer the better.

AtticusMatlock said:

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Doubtful. Denver suburbs still have 20% of their expected vote coming in and its 55-45 Dem. 13% of the red-heavy area is left to count but the raw numbers probably aren't there for the GOP candidate. Gerrymandered district.

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Agree, just updated another vote drop. Now up over 2k

AP now has it at 210-197 but I can't find where that 210th Republican came from. There's been no announcement there from AP and nothing has changed on the map from the races I'm following. Wondering if they are now counting WA 4 in their total by party, but that race hasn't been called yet.

AtticusMatlock said:

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AP now has it at 210-197 but I can't find where that 210th Republican came from. There's been no announcement there from AP and nothing has changed on the map from the races I'm following. Wondering if they are now counting WA 4 in their total by party, but that race hasn't been called yet.

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Could it be that they were always one off and they fixed it? I noticed before that their tracking slide bar that showed how many Republicans had left to get to 218 always seemed off by one. Now it is correct, with 210 there are 8 more to go.

We have the tie vote also.

That sounds right. Now I'm going to have to redo all my math.

How are they still not done counting??

maxag42 said:

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How are they still not done counting??

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Waiting on runbeck to produce enough ballots in AZ, and the culinary union to make enough for NV.