*****OFFICIAL 2024 ELECTION DAY THREAD*****

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twk
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In reply to gigemJTH12 • 1:18p, 11/5/24
AG
gigemJTH12 said:
Serious question..

Why are we just assuming the Others will vote for trump?

I think the assumption is that "other" will split in a fairly close manner.
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TxAgPreacher
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In reply to gigemJTH12 • 1:18p, 11/5/24
S
gigemJTH12 said:
Serious question..

Why are we just assuming the Others will vote for trump?

Polling says independents break slightly for trump.
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OKCAg2002
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1:19p, 11/5/24
AG
For Peanut...

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dreyOO
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In reply to Wabs • 1:19p, 11/5/24
Wabs said:
Same day results every single election except for 2020 and now 2024. Ridiculous.

But technologyโ€ฆ.

What a crock. Lying lefties don't care
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hammerhead
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In reply to 45-70Ag • 1:19p, 11/5/24
45-70Ag said:
Not sure I understand..Is the house odds off because of a large number of voters not voting straight R? If the odds are in the 80's for the Senate how does the house compute to 53%?
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Captn_Ag05
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1:19p, 11/5/24
AG
At this point I am just watching Florida to see if there is any sign of late Democrat momentum. So far, no.

The Republican turnout rate is 77.63%
The Democrat turnout rate is 70.93%

Difference of 6.7%

The turnout gap to start the day was 3.6%.
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Oyster DuPree
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In reply to gigemJTH12 • 1:20p, 11/5/24
AG
gigemJTH12 said:
Serious question..

Why are we just assuming the Others will vote for trump?


No one is assuming that they'll all vote for Trump or all vote for Harris, the assumption is that they'll split and the feeling is that the split is more favorable than usual toward the R's
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Cromagnum
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In reply to will25u • 1:20p, 11/5/24
AG
will25u said:
Trump 2016: A New Hope

Trump 2020: The Empire Strikes Back

Trump 2024: Return of the Jedi


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UntoldSpirit
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In reply to StandUpforAmerica • 1:20p, 11/5/24
AG
StandUpforAmerica said:
Infection_Ag11 said:
Aggie_2463 said:
Infection_Ag11 said:
Aggie_2463 said:
Infection_Ag11 said:
Surprised by the senate being only 82%

It's a near mathematical impossibility at this point for the republicans to not have at least 51 senate seats after today
I haven't been following the house race, are we in danger of losing the majority there?


Yes, in fact if you look at the individual races it would be a mild surprise if the democrats don't achieve a very slight majority in the house. Republicans have to either pull a few mild upsets, or sweep 5 genuinely 50/50 races.

The problem is so many close races this year in the house are in purple districts within blue states, or blue districts in red states. So Trump will have a hard time carrying many of these races over the finish line even if he wins.
I don't really mind gridlock.

Senate & Presidency would suffice.


I agree
I disagree... then we'd have to put up with more impeachments.
It's probably worse than that. The House will not certify the election for Trump. Count on it if Rs don't win it.
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MemphisAg1
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In reply to will25u • 1:21p, 11/5/24
AG
will25u said:


What was the RCP average spread for Florida, Trump vs Harris?
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Charlie 31
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In reply to Infection_Ag11 • 1:21p, 11/5/24
AG
Infection_Ag11 said:
aggie93 said:
Infection_Ag11 said:
Aggie_2463 said:
Infection_Ag11 said:
Surprised by the senate being only 82%

It's a near mathematical impossibility at this point for the republicans to not have at least 51 senate seats after today
I haven't been following the house race, are we in danger of losing the majority there?
Yes, in fact if you look at the individual races it would be a mild surprise if the democrats don't achieve a very slight majority in the house. Republicans have to either pull a few mild upsets, or sweep 5 genuinely 50/50 races.

The problem is so many close races this year in the house are in purple districts within blue states, or blue districts in red states. So Trump will have a hard time carrying many of these races over the finish line even if he wins.
Lose the House and lose the Leg agenda for Trump.
Personally I prefer a lot of deadlock at the federal level. My ideal scenario is always the republicans controlling the presidency and one house of congress, preferably the senate, while the democrats control the other. Allows for a republican to wield the executive powers while keeping government expansion via long lasting policy to a minimum.
THIS!
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Jbob04
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 1:21p, 11/5/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:

If this happens, he won't win
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to UntoldSpirit • 1:21p, 11/5/24
Which house certifies the election? The existing one or the new one?
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 1:22p, 11/5/24
AG
Who?mikejones! said:
Which house certifies the election? The existing one or the new one?
New.
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Ag87H2O
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 1:22p, 11/5/24
AG
Who?mikejones! said:


Lol. Trump going to disallow history books folks.
These left wing fear monger hacks are right, just not how they are claiming.

Democrat projection on steroids.
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Who?mikejones!
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1:22p, 11/5/24


Wtf
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fc2112
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 1:22p, 11/5/24
Who?mikejones! said:
Which house certifies the election? The existing one or the new one?
New one
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45-70Ag
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1:22p, 11/5/24
AG
What's the link for the New York Times needle that calls elections. I hate the times but their election stuff is pretty good.
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to aggiehawg • 1:23p, 11/5/24
aggiehawg said:
Who?mikejones! said:
Which house certifies the election? The existing one or the new one?
New.


Is that what tasking was droning on about?
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policywonk98
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In reply to oh no • 1:23p, 11/5/24
AG
oh no said:



I could be very very wrong, but this is my map as well. I'm also at 55 Senators. I figured I might as well do this Aggie style and end up either over the moon or extremely disappointed.
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Hungry
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In reply to MemphisAg1 • 1:23p, 11/5/24
AG
MemphisAg1 said:
will25u said:


What was the RCP average spread for Florida, Trump vs Harris?
Trump +8%
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Daddy-O5
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In reply to oh no • 1:24p, 11/5/24
AG
oh no said:


Texas isn't red enough
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MemphisAg1
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In reply to Hungry • 1:24p, 11/5/24
AG
Thanks
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FWAppraiser
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In reply to MemphisAg1 • 1:24p, 11/5/24
AG
Trump +8. RCP in Florida has skewed D the past 3 elections.
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FireAg
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 1:24p, 11/5/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
At this point I am just watching Florida to see if there is any sign of late Democrat momentum. So far, no.

The Republican turnout rate is 77.63%
The Democrat turnout rate is 70.93%

Difference of 6.7%

The turnout gap to start the day was 3.6%.
Been doing the exact same thing...
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to 45-70Ag • 1:24p, 11/5/24
45-70Ag said:
What's the link for the New York Times needle that calls elections. I hate the times but their election stuff is pretty good.


They're on strike
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P.U.T.U
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1:24p, 11/5/24
AG
I have seen reports of Trump saying the election will be decided tonight and that it will be decided by the end of the week. In other words we are getting a lot of static with very little facts this early which should be expected.
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to policywonk98 • 1:25p, 11/5/24
AG
policywonk98 said:
oh no said:



I could be very very wrong, but this is my map as well. I'm also at 55 Senators. I figured I might as well do this Aggie style and end up either over the moon or extremely disappointed.
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2 edits
GE
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In reply to hammerhead • 1:25p, 11/5/24
AG
hammerhead said:
45-70Ag said:
Not sure I understand..Is the house odds off because of a large number of voters not voting straight R? If the odds are in the 80's for Presidency and Senate how does the house compute to 53%?
The way the districting works most likely. Assume there are just three districts in a state of 100 people. 51 vote straight R, 49 straight D. One district could have 33 republicans and zero democrats and the other two could have 9 republicans each and split the 49 total democrats evenly. In that case the R's would win the senate and vote for the R president but the D's would get 2 of 3 house seats
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will25u
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In reply to gigemJTH12 • 1:25p, 11/5/24
gigemJTH12 said:
Serious question..

Why are we just assuming the Others will vote for trump?

Because "Others" would need to be D +16(58D/42R) to even think about winning with the lead R's have.
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Who?mikejones!
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1:26p, 11/5/24
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nortex97
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1:27p, 11/5/24
AG
Trump back up in NV after some earlier panic about the first few hours.




Someone asked about Florida expectations today.


If Trump wins ED voting in Florida by around 15-20, it's game/set/match, extrapolating that polling miss to impact in the actual battleground states. .
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aggie93
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In reply to will25u • 1:27p, 11/5/24
AG
will25u said:
Just tried this. It is true.

Well Google is the largest single donor to the Democrats so that's not a surprise.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

Ronald Reagan
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No Spin Ag
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In reply to Jbob04 • 1:28p, 11/5/24
Jbob04 said:
Captn_Ag05 said:

If this happens, he won't win


Why would it matter when it's called? Doesn't ever citizen deserve it have their vote counted even if it takes time?

Also, it's not as if when Trump has been running that it sometimes took longer hours of not a day or so to count votes.

On top of that, there are much more people voting these past couple of elections than prior ones, so it just makes sense it'll take longer. Not everything is a conspiracy.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
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jr15aggie
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In reply to TxAgPreacher • 1:28p, 11/5/24
AG
TxAgPreacher said:
gigemJTH12 said:
Serious question..

Why are we just assuming the Others will vote for trump?

Polling says independents break slightly for trump.


Another way it's said is that Indy's will many times break with the pack.

In this particular case, the Dems turnout is absolutely awful. Do you really think that a majority of those Indy voters are breaking for Harris when even the registered Dems aren't?
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