I never agree with InfectionAg but this is spot on.Infection_Ag11 said:aggie93 said:Lose the House and lose the Leg agenda for Trump.Infection_Ag11 said:Aggie_2463 said:I haven't been following the house race, are we in danger of losing the majority there?Infection_Ag11 said:
Surprised by the senate being only 82%
It's a near mathematical impossibility at this point for the republicans to not have at least 51 senate seats after today
Yes, in fact if you look at the individual races it would be a mild surprise if the democrats don't achieve a very slight majority in the house. Republicans have to either pull a few mild upsets, or sweep 5 genuinely 50/50 races.
The problem is so many close races this year in the house are in purple districts within blue states, or blue districts in red states. So Trump will have a hard time carrying many of these races over the finish line even if he wins.
Personally I prefer a lot of deadlock at the federal level. My ideal scenario is always the republicans controlling the presidency and one house of congress, preferably the senate, while the democrats control the other. Allows for a republican to wield the executive powers while keeping government expansion via long lasting policy to a minimum.
*****OFFICIAL 2024 ELECTION DAY THREAD*****
1,102,778 Views |
8901 Replies |
Last: 1 hr ago by AtticusMatlock
Nice. Not arguing, but any data to back that up?FWAppraiser said:
YepRepublicans win the Indy/other vote in rural Nevada, and those are big numbers.
— Rich Baris The People's Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) November 5, 2024
Aggie_2463 said:I don't really mind gridlock.Infection_Ag11 said:Aggie_2463 said:I haven't been following the house race, are we in danger of losing the majority there?Infection_Ag11 said:
Surprised by the senate being only 82%
It's a near mathematical impossibility at this point for the republicans to not have at least 51 senate seats after today
Yes, in fact if you look at the individual races it would be a mild surprise if the democrats don't achieve a very slight majority in the house. Republicans have to either pull a few mild upsets, or sweep 5 genuinely 50/50 races.
The problem is so many close races this year in the house are in purple districts within blue states, or blue districts in red states. So Trump will have a hard time carrying many of these races over the finish line even if he wins.
Senate & Presidency would suffice.
I agree
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Infection_Ag11 said:oh no said:yeah; senate should be closer to 95% just because of MT and WV alone, right? ...or is Cruz in trouble in TX? even if so, Moreno in OH should cover.Infection_Ag11 said:
Surprised by the senate being only 82%
It's a near mathematical impossibility at this point for the republicans to not have at least 51 senate seats after today
...concerning the house could be flipping though..
Cruz is fine
The only question regarding the senate is whether republicans have 51, 52, 53 or 54 seats. Looking more and more like 52 is probably what it will be.
If I was betting on it, I'd bet on the house to flip. If Kamala wins the general it's definitely going to flip because she will bring more over the finish line than Trump will be able to just based on where the races are.
I think where the house polling gets dicey is turnout. If Ds are not turning out for districts bordering urban areas that are competitive, the polling means nothing. I am cautiously hopeful that we keep the house.
Just tried this. It is true.
If you type "Where can I vote for Harris" into Google, you'll get a map with local polling stations.
— Jordan Sather (@Jordan_Sather_) November 5, 2024
If you type "Where can I vote for Trump", they show you nothing. pic.twitter.com/nYEtkuzL5f
Infection_Ag11 said:aggie93 said:Lose the House and lose the Leg agenda for Trump.Infection_Ag11 said:Aggie_2463 said:I haven't been following the house race, are we in danger of losing the majority there?Infection_Ag11 said:
Surprised by the senate being only 82%
It's a near mathematical impossibility at this point for the republicans to not have at least 51 senate seats after today
Yes, in fact if you look at the individual races it would be a mild surprise if the democrats don't achieve a very slight majority in the house. Republicans have to either pull a few mild upsets, or sweep 5 genuinely 50/50 races.
The problem is so many close races this year in the house are in purple districts within blue states, or blue districts in red states. So Trump will have a hard time carrying many of these races over the finish line even if he wins.
Personally I prefer a lot of deadlock at the federal level. My ideal scenario is always the republicans controlling the presidency and one house of congress, preferably the senate, while the democrats control the other. Allows for a republican to wield the executive powers while keeping government expansion via long lasting policy to a minimum.
I don't usually agree with you, but I agree here. If the only thing that happens over the next four years is that Congress does almost nothing, and Trump dismantles the federal bureaucracy, closes the border, unwinds Biden's executive orders, and maybe appoints another SC justice, that is fine by me.
Infection_Ag11 said:Aggie_2463 said:I don't really mind gridlock.Infection_Ag11 said:Aggie_2463 said:I haven't been following the house race, are we in danger of losing the majority there?Infection_Ag11 said:
Surprised by the senate being only 82%
It's a near mathematical impossibility at this point for the republicans to not have at least 51 senate seats after today
Yes, in fact if you look at the individual races it would be a mild surprise if the democrats don't achieve a very slight majority in the house. Republicans have to either pull a few mild upsets, or sweep 5 genuinely 50/50 races.
The problem is so many close races this year in the house are in purple districts within blue states, or blue districts in red states. So Trump will have a hard time carrying many of these races over the finish line even if he wins.
Senate & Presidency would suffice.
I agree
As long as we keep the Senate, we keep the ability to get Trump judges confirmed.
WhoopN06 said:I never agree with InfectionAg but this is spot on.Infection_Ag11 said:aggie93 said:Lose the House and lose the Leg agenda for Trump.Infection_Ag11 said:Aggie_2463 said:I haven't been following the house race, are we in danger of losing the majority there?Infection_Ag11 said:
Surprised by the senate being only 82%
It's a near mathematical impossibility at this point for the republicans to not have at least 51 senate seats after today
Yes, in fact if you look at the individual races it would be a mild surprise if the democrats don't achieve a very slight majority in the house. Republicans have to either pull a few mild upsets, or sweep 5 genuinely 50/50 races.
The problem is so many close races this year in the house are in purple districts within blue states, or blue districts in red states. So Trump will have a hard time carrying many of these races over the finish line even if he wins.
Personally I prefer a lot of deadlock at the federal level. My ideal scenario is always the republicans controlling the presidency and one house of congress, preferably the senate, while the democrats control the other. Allows for a republican to wield the executive powers while keeping government expansion via long lasting policy to a minimum.
Generally I'd agree but we really need a full GOP sweep of control so that they can wind back the last four years legislatively (and wipe all of Biden's executive orders).
Plus do some election reform to address the nonsense of the last two elections.
Biggest take away compared to 2020. Increased D turnout in Clark. In 2020 at 10 a.m., 5,705 Ds had voted in Clark.
— Victor Joecks (@VictorJoecks) November 5, 2024
Today, Ds had 13,209 show up. That's +7.5K.
Compared to 2020, Rs are up +4.2K in Clark. But Ds have netted 3.3 K. https://t.co/0sAZabehsY
Iraq2xVeteran said:
I think Ted Cruz will beat Colin Allred 52% to 47% in another close reelection bid to a 3rd term in the Senate, and the results will be announced by 10:00 PM.
We need to get Ted Cruz the hell out of their before next election before he loses
A lot of curing to do
Maricopa County officials just announced bad news for Kamala Harris & the Dems
— JOSH DUNLAP (@JDunlap1974) November 5, 2024
27k mail-in ballots arrived with mismatched signatures, and 15k have been cured, meaning 12,000 ballots will NOT be counted unless they're cured. pic.twitter.com/QM3zXGgAnn
May as well say it. I think there's polling error again, and that it favors Trump. Which means that even NH is in play. IF YOU VOTE. pic.twitter.com/l5BWllbWaN
— Ben Shapiro (@benshapiro) November 5, 2024
Real info - no voting centers in DeKalb County, GA, with intermediate or long wait times. Most under 5 minutes.
— Seth Keshel (@RealSKeshel) November 5, 2024
This is Election Day in a 83/16 Biden County that came into Election Day 79k votes short of its 2020 ballot count. pic.twitter.com/OYiyVJxi7K
I disagree... then we'd have to put up with more impeachments.Infection_Ag11 said:Aggie_2463 said:I don't really mind gridlock.Infection_Ag11 said:Aggie_2463 said:I haven't been following the house race, are we in danger of losing the majority there?Infection_Ag11 said:
Surprised by the senate being only 82%
It's a near mathematical impossibility at this point for the republicans to not have at least 51 senate seats after today
Yes, in fact if you look at the individual races it would be a mild surprise if the democrats don't achieve a very slight majority in the house. Republicans have to either pull a few mild upsets, or sweep 5 genuinely 50/50 races.
The problem is so many close races this year in the house are in purple districts within blue states, or blue districts in red states. So Trump will have a hard time carrying many of these races over the finish line even if he wins.
Senate & Presidency would suffice.
I agree
For someone who supposedly isn't likeable, he just keeps on winning.gigemJTH12 said:Iraq2xVeteran said:
I think Ted Cruz will beat Colin Allred 52% to 47% in another close reelection bid to a 3rd term in the Senate, and the results will be announced by 10:00 PM.
We need to get Ted Cruz the hell out of their before next election before he loses
Yep. That.
Is it just me or is other % tracking very high?
Is this the new steal algorithm under the guise voters didn't like either candidate!
Is this the new steal algorithm under the guise voters didn't like either candidate!
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
#NVEV @DataRepublican needed a nap so I went through and gathered the ED voting, and added it my EV spreadsheet. Rs have out voted Ds by 3,304 today and with Others assigned by county the total is 4,553.
— Chad Edwards (@EaglesTTT) November 5, 2024
Data can be found here https://t.co/pPtwTUotG2 pic.twitter.com/bDPNEUXMwe
I assign indies based on the D/R split in their county as you would expect them to be most similar to their peers.
— Chad Edwards (@EaglesTTT) November 5, 2024
while florida and nevada results are great, PA is quite literally the state that will decide the election.
any news there?
any news there?
Leander
As of mid-day (12:30p), Fairfax and PWC (Virginia) each reported in-person turnout in line with mid-day 2022. Given Presidential elections generally have higher turnout than midterms, this is arguably poor ED turnout.
— George M. Urban (@gmurban) November 5, 2024
MSNBC guest says that if Trump is elected he will ban the writing of history books. These people are legit insane: pic.twitter.com/QNkZmanB5C
— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) November 5, 2024
Lol. Trump going to disallow history books folks.
Nothing on PA until this evening except for pictures of lines in whatever counties.Leander said:
while florida and nevada results are great, PA is quite literally the state that will decide the election.
any news there?
So far lots of pictures of dudes standing in line
TheEternalOptimist said:And if they steal this thing.... the people will rise up and drag them elsewhere.FTAG 2000 said:
Dems were running ads threatening lawyers with disbarment in swing states if they helped Trump.
It's obvious the Dems are going to drag this thing into court to be decided.
Nobody is going to "rise up", give me a break.
AZ Update: Rs keep their over 2 to 1 advantage...almost halfway through the day.
— CA ET Nerd (@earlyvotedata) November 5, 2024
Still very good for Rs. https://t.co/7FnU5QBVzg
StandUpforAmerica said:I disagree... then we'd have to put up with more impeachments.Infection_Ag11 said:Aggie_2463 said:I don't really mind gridlock.Infection_Ag11 said:Aggie_2463 said:I haven't been following the house race, are we in danger of losing the majority there?Infection_Ag11 said:
Surprised by the senate being only 82%
It's a near mathematical impossibility at this point for the republicans to not have at least 51 senate seats after today
Yes, in fact if you look at the individual races it would be a mild surprise if the democrats don't achieve a very slight majority in the house. Republicans have to either pull a few mild upsets, or sweep 5 genuinely 50/50 races.
The problem is so many close races this year in the house are in purple districts within blue states, or blue districts in red states. So Trump will have a hard time carrying many of these races over the finish line even if he wins.
Senate & Presidency would suffice.
I agree
That will go nowhere and just further frustrate the American electorate with democrats for the next election.
Hardly a scenario worth losing sleep over
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Alrighty... Here are my predictions on the states we have information on... Not that what I think means a damn.
FLORIDA IS RED! (110%)
ARIZONA IS RED! (100%)
NEVADA IS MEDIUM RED! (>75%) Likely Republicans have too high of a lead before ED for Dems to overcome, even with an extra 3 days for (no postmark)mail.
FLORIDA IS RED! (110%)
ARIZONA IS RED! (100%)
NEVADA IS MEDIUM RED! (>75%)
Likely Republicans have too high of a lead before ED for Dems to overcome, even with an extra 3 days for (no postmark)mail. Unfortunately, the latest NYT and Emerson polls don't have the crosstabs available for free, but the latest Atlas poll does.will25u said:
From CNN exit polling, Independents broke 50% Biden, 44% Trump in NV. in 2020
Latest AtlasIntel poll for NV: Trump winning crossover voters by 4.5% and Trump winning independents by 5.4%.
If these splits are to be believed Dems in NV would have to outvote Reps by a considerable margin because they're losing independents and crossover voters according to AtlasIntel.
Vance in '28
Any exit poll data? Or will there not be any announced until polls close? I remember in 2004 exit polls coming out at about 2:00 pm heavily favoring Kerry and the media going orgasmic.
Eric Hovde (WI-R Sen Candidate) just said on Clay & Buck that Madison Dem turnout is solid and expected but that Milaukee Dem turnout is supressed and that's a bit surprising.
It's been well documented that lots of people struggle to vote for either.JFABNRGR said:
Is it just me or is other % tracking very high?
he guise voters didn't like either candidate!
Serious question..
Why are we just assuming the Others will vote for trump?
Why are we just assuming the Others will vote for trump?
🚨 MARICOPA, AZ NOON UPDATE
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 5, 2024
🔴 REP: 46K
🟡 OTH: 43.4K
🔵 DEM: 22.7K
Data: Uplift
Partly correct.Leander said:
while florida and nevada results are great, PA is quite literally the state that will decide the election.
any news there?
You must be assuming Fla is Trumps because it is much bigger than PA with 30EV's and 23,000,000 pop
GA 16, 11,400,000
NC 16, 11,100,000
PA 19, 12,700,000
Those three dwarf the rest of the BG's. Take those and its over.
Napkin math - Trump will likely win FL by 12 or more at this point. Bodes poorly for polling accuracy this cycle being in Dems direction.
— Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD (@TonerousHyus) November 5, 2024
will25u said:
Alrighty... Here are my predictions on the states we have information on... Not that what I think means a damn.
FLORIDA IS RED! (110%)
ARIZONA IS RED! (100%)
NEVADA IS MEDIUM RED! (>75%)
That's all good and well but still need a Midwest state to go red
Featured Stories
See All
A&M at risk of undercut when undertaking trip to underrated Auburn
by Olin Buchanan
48:02
10h ago
2.9k
5:59
7h ago
1.2k
16:53
11h ago
2.6k
Legalize-It-Ags
Interesting parallel on RBs going into sip game
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
167