Built our home here in Lakeway area for 400 5 years ago. 3.5 mortgage.

We would list it at 850-900 now. Insane.

CDUB98 said:

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Quote:

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Yea I would have to leave my industry learn a trade, spend money and pivot to a off shore rigging.

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Good job proving you don't want to do what is necessary to improve your life.

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Lol

tysker said:

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Sea Speed said:

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ThunderCougarFalconBird said:

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How are most people able to carry a 400k note at current rates?

ETA I'm not talking about the millionaires here on TexAgs. I'm talking about Joe Sixpack and Jane Boxwine.

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I would assume people that want something half decent will have to move to an area like mine. There's a remodeled home with a pool, a shop, an air conditioner gym and 2 apartments for sale in my area for 315k and it's on I think .67 acres. There's plenty more affordable housing, it just isn't in the cool hip areas. Certainly there will have to be a resistance in places like this.

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Are there a white collar jobs available within 30 miles of your area? If you're spending an hour commuting both ways and missing your kid's baseball games, it may be worth it to live in the more expensive, hip location

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Plus you are wearing out a vehicle and paying for gas.

Stat Monitor Repairman said:

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Sea Speed said:

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ThunderCougarFalconBird said:

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How are most people able to carry a 400k note at current rates?

ETA I'm not talking about the millionaires here on TexAgs. I'm talking about Joe Sixpack and Jane Boxwine.

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I would assume people that want something half decent will have to move to an area like mine. There's a remodeled home with a pool, a shop, an air conditioner gym and 2 apartments for sale in my area for 315k and it's on I think .67 acres. There's plenty more affordable housing, it just isn't in the cool hip areas. Certainly there will have to be a resistance in places like this.

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Ultimately what it boils down to.

There's plenty affordable houses with land in flyover states but just not in any place that any Gen Zer wants to live.

There's also plenty of high-paid jobs out there that require being away from home for long periods living on rig, ship, barge or man camp, but nobody wants to be away from wifi or Suzie rottencrotch.

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That's what my 18 year old son is doing now. He's going to welding school, wants to be a pipeline welder on the road all the time. Also, wants to get certified for heavy equipment.

It's brutal jobs though you are talking about. You will wear down your body quickly, better save up that money for early retirement and not spend it all on a huge mortgage and toys...My dad and brother worked in the oilfield there whole lives. My dad pretty much ended up cash broke, barely any retirement savings, but had a small 80 acre farm to show for it and a paid off 1800 sq ft house, and a worn out body. My brother owns a well servicing company in Longview, and makes good money but has to pay 70,000 a month rain or shine in salaries to employees and always spending money for equipment, tools, equipment repairs, vehicle maintenance. He has tons of bills, and goes out and gets contracts to pump wells himself to make up money for when his well servicing company isn't making enough to cover all the expenses. It's not an easy life, you pretty much got to be a workaholic by nature and driven...

Sea Speed said:

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On cursory search on indeed there were over 100 jobs with the word engineer and 22 with the term lawyer listed locally.

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Plenty of jobs for custodial engineers and immigration attorneys

Good thing inflation is only 3% and headed towards 2%.

[Calling other posters racist is out of bounds -- Staff]

I agree that home prices are completely insane right now and I'm thinking the market will somewhat regulate this. but not sure to what extent. .

That's the only answer by the way. UNDER no circumstances a is government intervention or solution the right move.

cavjock88 said:

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Let this sink in. My Dad bought our 4/2 house in the Sharpstown subdivision of Houston for $10K in 1968 with a 2.5% note. Three years earlier my Grandmother bought a 1965 Olds Jetstar 88 for $1.75K cash (last year without pollution control). For the typical America those types of things just aren't possible anymore.

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Same for me with attached two car garage, only it was 1966. New home built by Monarch Homes. We had to put the grass and the landscaping in as well.

5 bars of gold bought a house in 1913. Same today.

All I can say is don't move up in house unless 100 percent sure.

The wife pushed hard for us to it just over a year ago- so finally went along.

Even though we could put a ton down, rates our killing us. After mortgage pmt, taxes and insurance, we are at about 3750 a month. We make combined just over 200k - and it's a struggle to stay cash flow positive.

Large corporations should NOT be able to purchase single family dwellings IMO.

I've got some land in smithville. Last few times I've been down there, restaurants keep closing (Honeys, Taco/BBQ place). What's going on there? It used to have some great food. Still love Your Mom's though

CDUB98 said:

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Quote:

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Yea I would have to leave my industry learn a trade, spend money and pivot to a off shore rigging.

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Good job proving you don't want to do what is necessary to improve your life.

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Posts like these miss the point. You shouldn't have to do something that dramatic just to own a modest home in America. Yes, if you want to be rich and own something well above average, that would make sense. Some are simply asking for something modest.

In the last 20-30 years, it's really only the last few you have to do something dramatic to get the same quality you could have 10 years ago doing what he's doing now. Why should American's be okay with that? It's all about percent of income, and it's absurd now. It's our government. Don't blame the person not willing to completely switch careers and do off shore rigging. .

Teslag said:

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barbacoa taco said:

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the vast majority can't. and even with a well paying job right out of school, it will take a few years to save for a down payment in a major metro area. it's very different now than it was in the 60s and 70s.

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With FHA they will only need 3.5%. Ya they will have to pay PMI but that's cheaper than the rising costs of waiting.

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Odds are, things will be cheaper, at least from a rate standpoint, in a couple of years. It's not smart to add PMI to the equation rather than wait things out a bit longer right now at 6.75%. Decent chance it's in the low 5s in 18 months and you can have more saved up to boot. Home prices may increase some, but I would bet they slow down their rate in the coming 2-3 years.

In reality, it's not a smart financial move to buy right now. Go to the investment board. Ash heinekin (or whatever his name is) has a pretty good breakdown of some of this.

hedge said:

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Yea I would have to leave my industry learn a trade, spend money and pivot to a off shore rigging. I just a want an American bungalow for a decent price man

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Plenty of nice ones to choose from, right off the golf course.

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Mission-del-Lago_San-Antonio_TX

Aston04 said:

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All I can say is don't move up in house unless 100 percent sure.

The wife pushed hard for us to it just over a year ago- so finally went along.

Even though we could put a ton down, rates our killing us. After mortgage pmt, taxes and insurance, we are at about 3750 a month. We make combined just over 200k - and it's a struggle to stay cash flow positive.

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Will likely get a chance to REFI in the next year. And it might be your last chance for a long time.

Here's something I see....I agree with housing being insane for new couples and it's not how things should be. But the same people *****ing about housing being expensive are the same people saying illegals are all welcome, that healthcare should be free for all, that vote for policies that send our money elsewhere, that live in this fantasy world.....which causes economic issues like this

Aston04 said:

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All I can say is don't move up in house unless 100 percent sure.

The wife pushed hard for us to it just over a year ago- so finally went along.

Even though we could put a ton down, rates our killing us. After mortgage pmt, taxes and insurance, we are at about 3750 a month. We make combined just over 200k - and it's a struggle to stay cash flow positive.

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You make ~$12,500/mo after taxes and you can't stay cash flow positive? Your issue is not your $3750/mo house payment.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Aston04 said:

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All I can say is don't move up in house unless 100 percent sure.

The wife pushed hard for us to it just over a year ago- so finally went along.

Even though we could put a ton down, rates our killing us. After mortgage pmt, taxes and insurance, we are at about 3750 a month. We make combined just over 200k - and it's a struggle to stay cash flow positive.

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Will likely get a chance to REFI in the next year. And it might be your last chance for a long time.

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What rate are you targeting?

beerad12man said:

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CDUB98 said:

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Quote:

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Yea I would have to leave my industry learn a trade, spend money and pivot to a off shore rigging.

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Good job proving you don't want to do what is necessary to improve your life.

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Posts like these miss the point. You shouldn't have to do something that dramatic just to own a modest home in America. Yes, if you want to be rich and own something well above average, that would make sense. Some are simply asking for something modest.

In the last 20-30 years, it's really only the last few you have to do something dramatic to get the same quality you could have 10 years ago doing what he's doing now. Why should American's be okay with that? It's all about percent of income, and it's absurd now. It's our government. Don't blame the person not willing to completely switch careers and do off shore rigging. .

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Kind of agree with this.

When my grandparents were my age, people were able to work at coffee shops, liquor stores, as receptionists, etc and live less than 15mins from their standard (for the time) middle class house, and that's in Houston.

We live in different times. Sure, there are cheap homes available relative to current prices. But most are so far away from your job, are in bad neighborhoods, or are not in move-in ready condition.

The difference between now and then is where we are in the economic cycle. Back then, it was the middle class explosion era of our country. Productivity in the economy was through the roof and legitimate economic growth was outpacing the devaluation of the dollar.

Right now, were are in a period of no growth outside of government, in a period where government debt is the only thing growing fast than the devaluation of the dollar, and a time where the fringes at each edge of society are the only ones doing better than before. The middle class is having their pocket picked directly to the benefit to the most unproductive and the elite. And because we are near the end of the debt-leveraged cycle, you are seeing valuations for everything at extremes.

No matter how long the can is kicked in this economy, the pendulum will swing back. The time it takes to do so will be extremely painful for EVERYONE. but the net benefactors will be the middle class as new opportunities emerge for actual productive jobs to the economy and asset valuations resetting against the dollar.

If you are highly leveraged in a home purchased in the last 1-2 years, you better hope you don't lose your job. And you better have a stockpile of cash. Even in a supply crunch, housing prices can fall fast if demand dries up.

Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:

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hedge said:

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Yea I would have to leave my industry learn a trade, spend money and pivot to a off shore rigging. I just a want an American bungalow for a decent price man

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Plenty of nice ones to choose from, right off the golf course.

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Mission-del-Lago_San-Antonio_TX

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There are definitely some options.

But the point still remains. It costs one a significantly higher portion of the median income to live four inches from your neighbor now than it would to buy something with more land, more privacy, etc.

It's still frustrating. An option like this 10 years ago on this small of a lot would cost about 1/3rd the % of income it does today.

400k will be a distant memory when rates are lowered.

Sea Speed said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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Aston04 said:

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All I can say is don't move up in house unless 100 percent sure.

The wife pushed hard for us to it just over a year ago- so finally went along.

Even though we could put a ton down, rates our killing us. After mortgage pmt, taxes and insurance, we are at about 3750 a month. We make combined just over 200k - and it's a struggle to stay cash flow positive.

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Will likely get a chance to REFI in the next year. And it might be your last chance for a long time.

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What rate are you targeting?

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This is the range I am watching. And if it's anything like the last time rates did this after a FED raising regime that was followed by holding flat above 5% FEDFUND for a year, then housing prices will come down WITH falling rates.

I Just wonder how much a house these days might cost if it was built like a boomers first house:

Built with no 10-16 ft ceilings.
Lower pitch to roof-- no high roofs with enough attic space for another whole floor
LOL, no "office"
Linoleum and carpet-- no wood floors or laminate or tile floors, they got your floors done in one day! Just roll it out!
Tub and shower combo if you were lucky-- No "master" ( Realtors cant say that now) retreat and spa. No jets in bathtub, unless you had to bathe in same water as your brother to save money, and he farted. No tile separate shower
Slide in stove, no double ovens
No double entry doors.
Paneling!! No extra tape and mud of drywall.
Lots more insulation these days.
No three car garage. 22x22 was huge!
Fomica and not granite or quartz on counters.
no wifi wiring
no folding area in laundry room- space for washer and dryer about it.
No sodded yards and landscaping-- you did that.
And of course boomers didnt have Blackrock and Chinese buying up houses for rentals and crowding out young people.
At new wages, even for illegals, you are putting more labor money along with putting more material in a house.

Not discounting pain of kids today. Heck I couldn't afford new house. And i know what my wife would say if I asked her to live in the above house

I'm not so big on technical analysis, unfortunately. I obviously see the trend and the channel, but don't know what that has to do with rates later this year and you expecting them to be the last chance to refi for a long while. Appreciate your insights as always.

JobSecurity said:

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ThunderCougarFalconBird said:

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How are most people able to carry a 400k note at current rates?

ETA I'm not talking about the millionaires here on TexAgs. I'm talking about Joe Sixpack and Jane Boxwine.

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For reference, 400k with 20% down @ 6.75% with 2.2% property tax and average insurance is around ~3000/mo

Definitely tight for an "average" household of 80k but I wouldn't say impossible

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seriously I can't believe this statement.

$3000 a month = $36,000 a year

Household income of $80,000

after Federal, State, Local taxes, social security and 401K match that is net $43,000

so an entire household is then living on $7000 over 12 months.

so you have a grand total of $627 dollars a month to live on. for car, food, insurance, clothes.

ThunderCougarFalconBird said:

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How are most people able to carry a 400k note at current rates?

ETA I'm not talking about the millionaires here on TexAgs. I'm talking about Joe Sixpack and Jane Boxwine.

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THIS is what I've been asking for a while now. Especially in South Texas where we live. There are only SO many doctor's, lawyers, business owners out there. The average mortgage payment is way over $3k a month with current interest rates. Even if you give a massive down payment, your monthly mortgage is still going to be $3k minimum- just for the house. No utilities. No groceries. No maintenance. Crazy times!

(then once that Property Tax bill comes in, you just gotta hope you set enough aside in Escrow, otherwise you'll get blindsided in this crazy 'market'.)

crowman2010 said:

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Large corporations should NOT be able to purchase single family dwellings IMO.

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But "small" corporations would be ok, right?
Or do you want to completely eliminate the ability for families to rent property under the protection of an LLC?

LMCane said:

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JobSecurity said:

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ThunderCougarFalconBird said:

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How are most people able to carry a 400k note at current rates?

ETA I'm not talking about the millionaires here on TexAgs. I'm talking about Joe Sixpack and Jane Boxwine.

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For reference, 400k with 20% down @ 6.75% with 2.2% property tax and average insurance is around ~3000/mo

Definitely tight for an "average" household of 80k but I wouldn't say impossible

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seriously I can't believe this statement.

$3000 a month = $36,000 a year

Household income of $80,000

after Federal, State, Local taxes, social security and 401K match that is net $43,000

so an entire household is then living on $7000 over 12 months.

so you have a grand total of $627 dollars a month to live on. for car, food, insurance, clothes.

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The number's seem right. The number's also seem Crazy!

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Sea Speed said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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Aston04 said:

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All I can say is don't move up in house unless 100 percent sure.

The wife pushed hard for us to it just over a year ago- so finally went along.

Even though we could put a ton down, rates our killing us. After mortgage pmt, taxes and insurance, we are at about 3750 a month. We make combined just over 200k - and it's a struggle to stay cash flow positive.

---

Will likely get a chance to REFI in the next year. And it might be your last chance for a long time.

---

What rate are you targeting?

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This is the range I am watching. And if it's anything like the last time rates did this after a FED raising regime that was followed by holding flat above 5% FEDFUND for a year, then housing prices will come down WITH falling rates.

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I think there was more mid to low-priced supply last time that scenario occurred. I suspect that lack of supply, especially on the low end, will keep prices higher longer than expected.

It's nearly impossible to put a new house in a subdivision on the ground for under $300,000 these days, even if you can get the land for relatively cheap. And cheap land is getting hard to find unless it's far away from any city center in which case you're probably going to have to deal with increased costs to provide adequate water and sewer.

To drive down that initial home price a lot of developments, at least the ones ~50 acres and larger, are setting up Public Improvement Districts (PIDs) to help pay those infrastructure cost. Which is fine up front, but the trade off is the homeowner is going to be paying higher property taxes for the next 20 or 30 years.

The only way to produce a cheaper home is to build denser with townhomes or duplexes or 40' wide lots. But those aren't always popular options and its not rare to get the NIMBY's out in full force when you try and zone a property to allow those land uses.

Probably more like 30k which is feasible if the rest of your expenses are low. To be clear I'm not advocating for this at all but if you were young and had a clear line of sight to higher salaries I don't think it would be impossible. Most people I know stretched for their first home knowing they were early in their careers and had room to grow.

Obviously a different situation for your local diner waitress and her handyman boyfriend who more realistically make up the "average" American household

tysker said:

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crowman2010 said:

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Large corporations should NOT be able to purchase single family dwellings IMO.

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But "small" corporations would be ok, right?
Or do you want to completely eliminate the ability for families to rent property under the protection of an LLC?

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There has to be some sort of cap on it. The ability for these massive corporations to come in, pay straight cash (which artificially inflates prices) and effectively force would-be home owners into only being able to rent is not the direction we should be going.