Polymarket just move NINE POINTS in Trump's favor the last few hours

Trump nears 60, Kamala 39.

I guess the $100k injection by Kamala supporters was pissing in the ocean.

oh no said:

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LMCane said:

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FINAL EMERON POLL TODAY

Let's take a look at the final poll results in each of the states. First off, Kamala Harris only leads in one state, and ties in two others, while Donald Trump has leads in four:

AZ: Trump 50%, Harris 48%

GA: Trump 50%, Harris 49%

MI: Harris 50%, Trump 48%

NC: Trump 49%, Harris 48%

NV: Harris 48%, Trump 48%

PA: Trump 49%, Harris 48%

WI: Trump 49%, Harris 49%

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what matters most is Trump flipping back GA, AZ, and PA. That's all he needs for 270. Two states that actually tried to do something re: election integrity since last time: GA and AZ. Just pay attention to shenanigans and irregularities in Maricopa co and Fulton co. The usual shenanigans are expected, but the mail in ballot requests were far less than last time, so hopefully the results aren't so easily manipulatable.

Then there's PA.

Get PA and it won't matter if you lose NC, or don't flip back WI, or don't flip MI or NV. Problem is, PA's results might be predetermined and I don't think people were flooding to the polling locations for early voting in numbers to make it too big to scam. I think PA is broken and untrustworthy in the Philly area and in Allegheny co. and there his no recourse with their captured state house or their court systems.

If you count PA as a loss, Trump would have to not only flip back GA and AZ, but also hold NC and flip one more - either NV or WI. These are all so close in the polls, but the regime would only have to get one more of WI or NC and it's over.

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That's not true, in your scenario NV I put in bold, that would only put him at 268. He would have to win Wisconsin, Michigan, or New Hampshire.

IDaggie06 said:

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oh no said:

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LMCane said:

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FINAL EMERON POLL TODAY

Let's take a look at the final poll results in each of the states. First off, Kamala Harris only leads in one state, and ties in two others, while Donald Trump has leads in four:

AZ: Trump 50%, Harris 48%

GA: Trump 50%, Harris 49%

MI: Harris 50%, Trump 48%

NC: Trump 49%, Harris 48%

NV: Harris 48%, Trump 48%

PA: Trump 49%, Harris 48%

WI: Trump 49%, Harris 49%

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what matters most is Trump flipping back GA, AZ, and PA. That's all he needs for 270. Two states that actually tried to do something re: election integrity since last time: GA and AZ. Just pay attention to shenanigans and irregularities in Maricopa co and Fulton co. The usual shenanigans are expected, but the mail in ballot requests were far less than last time, so hopefully the results aren't so easily manipulatable.

Then there's PA.

Get PA and it won't matter if you lose NC, or don't flip back WI, or don't flip MI or NV. Problem is, PA's results might be predetermined and I don't think people were flooding to the polling locations for early voting in numbers to make it too big to scam. I think PA is broken and untrustworthy in the Philly area and in Allegheny co. and there his no recourse with their captured state house or their court systems.

If you count PA as a loss, Trump would have to not only flip back GA and AZ, but also hold NC and flip one more - either NV or WI. These are all so close in the polls, but the regime would only have to get one more of WI or NC and it's over.

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That's not true, in your scenario NV I put in bold, that would only put him at 268. He would have to win Wisconsin, Michigan, or New Hampshire.

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Is there ANY chance Trump wins Omaha to get to 270?

UntoldSpirit said:

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IDaggie06 said:

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oh no said:

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LMCane said:

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FINAL EMERON POLL TODAY

Let's take a look at the final poll results in each of the states. First off, Kamala Harris only leads in one state, and ties in two others, while Donald Trump has leads in four:

AZ: Trump 50%, Harris 48%

GA: Trump 50%, Harris 49%

MI: Harris 50%, Trump 48%

NC: Trump 49%, Harris 48%

NV: Harris 48%, Trump 48%

PA: Trump 49%, Harris 48%

WI: Trump 49%, Harris 49%

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what matters most is Trump flipping back GA, AZ, and PA. That's all he needs for 270. Two states that actually tried to do something re: election integrity since last time: GA and AZ. Just pay attention to shenanigans and irregularities in Maricopa co and Fulton co. The usual shenanigans are expected, but the mail in ballot requests were far less than last time, so hopefully the results aren't so easily manipulatable.

Then there's PA.

Get PA and it won't matter if you lose NC, or don't flip back WI, or don't flip MI or NV. Problem is, PA's results might be predetermined and I don't think people were flooding to the polling locations for early voting in numbers to make it too big to scam. I think PA is broken and untrustworthy in the Philly area and in Allegheny co. and there his no recourse with their captured state house or their court systems.

If you count PA as a loss, Trump would have to not only flip back GA and AZ, but also hold NC and flip one more - either NV or WI. These are all so close in the polls, but the regime would only have to get one more of WI or NC and it's over.

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That's not true, in your scenario NV I put in bold, that would only put him at 268. He would have to win Wisconsin, Michigan, or New Hampshire.

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Is there ANY chance Trump wins Omaha to get to 270?

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No

Baris and Barnes coming up in a few minutes.

NE split and our own Republicans may have killed ourselves if we hit 268

I won't be able to listen, but if you do, let us know what Baris is thinking. It seems like he has been hedging quite a bit on Twitter. His previous shows have been about how he doesn't see a part for Harris and now he is back to it being a nail biter (or so it seems). He also may be doing that just to drive people to watch his show lol

IDaggie06 said:

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oh no said:

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LMCane said:

---

FINAL EMERON POLL TODAY

Let's take a look at the final poll results in each of the states. First off, Kamala Harris only leads in one state, and ties in two others, while Donald Trump has leads in four:

AZ: Trump 50%, Harris 48%

GA: Trump 50%, Harris 49%

MI: Harris 50%, Trump 48%

NC: Trump 49%, Harris 48%

NV: Harris 48%, Trump 48%

PA: Trump 49%, Harris 48%

WI: Trump 49%, Harris 49%

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what matters most is Trump flipping back GA, AZ, and PA. That's all he needs for 270. Two states that actually tried to do something re: election integrity since last time: GA and AZ. Just pay attention to shenanigans and irregularities in Maricopa co and Fulton co. The usual shenanigans are expected, but the mail in ballot requests were far less than last time, so hopefully the results aren't so easily manipulatable.

Then there's PA.

Get PA and it won't matter if you lose NC, or don't flip back WI, or don't flip MI or NV. Problem is, PA's results might be predetermined and I don't think people were flooding to the polling locations for early voting in numbers to make it too big to scam. I think PA is broken and untrustworthy in the Philly area and in Allegheny co. and there his no recourse with their captured state house or their court systems.

If you count PA as a loss, Trump would have to not only flip back GA and AZ, but also hold NC and flip one more - either NV or WI. These are all so close in the polls, but the regime would only have to get one more of WI or NC and it's over.

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That's not true, in your scenario NV I put in bold, that would only put him at 268. He would have to win Wisconsin, Michigan, or New Hampshire.

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Or Omaha

Had to pause it for awhile. Will report back when I can get back to it.

Ralston just predicted Harris wins Nevada by .3%

Captn_Ag05 said:

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I won't be able to listen, but if you do, let us know what Baris is thinking. It seems like he has been hedging quite a bit on Twitter. His previous shows have been about how he doesn't see a part for Harris and now he is back to it being a nail biter (or so it seems). He also may be doing that just to drive people to watch his show lol

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They are not thinking nail biter at all. All the data and metrics are consistent and add up to Trump winning big.

Oh, and Moo Deng picked Trump in a watermelon poll.

mirose said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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I won't be able to listen, but if you do, let us know what Baris is thinking. It seems like he has been hedging quite a bit on Twitter. His previous shows have been about how he doesn't see a part for Harris and now he is back to it being a nail biter (or so it seems). He also may be doing that just to drive people to watch his show lol

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They are not thinking nail biter at all. All the data and metrics are consistent and add up to Trump winning big.

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Now...but what about 3 minutes from now? We, the voting public are being played by phony statisticians that are manipulated by lying politicians.

this seems to be somewhat important!!!

Those are some big swings to Trump in Morning Consult from their last round of polling.

So big, it would be nice if they clarified for everyone whether those were specific weight changes or vote preference changes.

Not kidding.

— Rich Baris The People's Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) November 4, 2024

269-269 Trump victory is not the mandate we need.

Maybe the new polls are taking into account what the NYT said and they are adjusting for it.

backintexas2013 said:

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Maybe the new polls are taking into account what the NYT said and they are adjusting for it.

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What did the NYT say?

White Dems were 16% more likely to answer the phone than white republicans. They said that could lead to Trump support being understated. Which is good because I think the NYT had Trump winning PA and WI

McInnis 03 said:

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Ralston just predicted Harris wins Nevada by .3%

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Have a feeling he's just playing to his audience (he's a leftist) with that close pick. He was saying that Dems needed to get the Republican early vote lead down to 20K for Harris to potentially win. The margin I believe is 30K going into election day. I think this is him just hedging to favor the left very slightly because that's what he wants to believe.

aggiehawg said:

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Baris and Barnes coming up in a few minutes.

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These guys are convinced that Trump runs away with it

I like Baris but never take Barnes seriously about anything, ever.

4stringAg said:

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McInnis 03 said:

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Ralston just predicted Harris wins Nevada by .3%

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Have a feeling he's just playing to his audience (he's a leftist) with that close pick. He was saying that Dems needed to get the Republican early vote lead down to 20K for Harris to potentially win. The margin I believe is 30K going into election day. I think this is him just hedging to favor the left very slightly because that's what he wants to believe.

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I posted this in the early voting thread but here is a chart I made showing how little he is predicting Harris to win by. He is also predicting 3.3% for "others" when there is not a common name on the ballot (at least that I've heard of) for 3rd party voting. For reference, in 2020 the "others" made up 2.3% when Jo Jorgensen was on the ballot.

[url=https://imgbb.com/][/url]

They're pointing out that Gallup just came out and said the polling spread is Trump plus 7, and that Atlas is moving in that same direction.

Atlas of course was the most accurate poster in 2020.

Baris was the second most accurate pollster and he is seeing the same numbers and expecting Trump to take all of the swing states.

He just said that he believes Trump wins and that it won't be close in the electoral College vote.

He believes if Trump takes one of the rust belt states, he takes them all. He has repeated numerous times that they vote together historically, despite polling to the contrary.

They've also made the statement that polls, even when they are accurate, which is not all the time, they are nowhere near as accurate as voting trends. They're adamant that the early voting trends are going to give this election to Trump.

4 said:

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They're pointing out that Gallup just came out and said the polling spread is Trump plus 7, and that Atlas is moving in that same direction.

Atlas of course was the most accurate poster in 2020.

Baris was the second most accurate pollster and he is seeing the same numbers and expecting Trump to take all of the swing states.

He just said that he believes Trump wins and that it won't be close in the electoral College vote.

He believes if Trump takes one of the rust belt states, he takes them all. He has repeated numerous times that they vote together historically, despite polling to the contrary.

They've also made the statement that polls, even when they are accurate, which is not all the time, they are nowhere near as accurate as voting trends. They're adamant that the early voting trends are going to give this election to Trump.

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Prayers!!!

Anybody seen the Gallup poll?

4 said:

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They're pointing out that Gallup just came out and said the polling spread is Trump plus 7, and that Atlas is moving in that same direction.

Atlas of course was the most accurate poster in 2020.

Baris was the second most accurate pollster and he is seeing the same numbers and expecting Trump to take all of the swing states.

He just said that he believes Trump wins and that it won't be close in the electoral College vote.

He believes if Trump takes one of the rust belt states, he takes them all. He has repeated numerous times that they vote together historically, despite polling to the contrary.

They've also made the statement that polls, even when they are accurate, which is not all the time, they are nowhere near as accurate as voting trends. They're adamant that the early voting trends are going to give this election to Trump.

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Who are these guys? How credible?

AtticusMatlock said:

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I like Baris but never take Barnes seriously about anything, ever.

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Barnes' legal takes are often out there but what he's doing with Baris here are the betting markets. He lives in Vegas and is a big gambler.

I think Georgia and Michigan are going to depend on the AA vote. They haven't been great in EV. The Michigan poll that flipped said they increased the AA count because they "think" they will show up on Election Day. There is nothing to support that other than hope

The big question is, historically speaking - on election day which party typically turns out more to vote?

As we all know in the last major election day of our Senate... the "red tide" was a pure myth...

Baris is a data/analytics guy. Very smart and was very good during the last election cycle.

Robert Barnes is a hardcore libertarian attorney who talks a lot of politics on his YouTube channel. He's a man of great confidence.

Republicans do.

I actually read somewhere that in 2022 republicans won the "popular" vote but lost key races. So they turned out just not where needed

satexas said:

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The big question is, historically speaking - on election day which party typically turns out more to vote?

As we all know in the last major election day of our Senate... the "red tide" was a pure myth...

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Historically, that has been Rs on day of elecion. But those that waited until election day in Maricopa County were screwed. This cycle, Rs are early voting at a far greater rate than past cycles. The good news is that many of these new R voters are previosly low propensity voters.

What that means is there is still a large number of Rs available for election day.