And Virginia. Don't have to win those but if the margins are closer than 2020 then it's a great sign. Should know pretty early how things are going in those states. Will be indicative of the swing vote in the swing states.

The good thing about Virginia is that they are usually pretty quick getting out results and they close the polls fairly early. If he is within 2% or even 3% that's a good sign.

Yeah I think you are correct. This exact thing happened with Obama in 2008. The election was still "too early to call", but the numbers coming out of GA and SC (states that he did not win) were not good compared to previous elections. CNN did a really good job of showing specific counties historic data... it all showed big movement towards team Blue.

And sure enough, next thing you know he takes Ohio, NC, Indiana... the route was on.

#New General election poll

🔵 Harris 51% (+4)
🔴 Trump 47%

Marist #A - LV - 11/2

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 4, 2024

Marist has been a joke for most of this cycle. How I know that is because it is the only poll Jessica Tarlov keeps haping on over and over.

Baris just dismisses them outright as not credible.

aggiehawg said:

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Marist has been a joke for most of this cycle. How I knw that is because it is the only poll Jessica Tarlov keeps haping on over and over.

Baris just dismisses them outright as not credible.

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I think Marist also has brand new pollsters leading it. The previous head pollsters were either fired or quit.

AtticusMatlock said:

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And Virginia. Don't have to win those but if the margins are closer than 2020 then it's a great sign. Should know pretty early how things are going in those states. Will be indicative of the swing vote in the swing states.

The good thing about Virginia is that they are usually pretty quick getting out results and they close the polls fairly early. If he is within 2% or even 3% that's a good sign.

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If Trump wins Virginia, it won't be reported early. Remember when Hillary asked media to show reporting of results? I can't find a link but I remember it happening.

They will wait to report if Trump wins it.

Science Denier said:

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AtticusMatlock said:

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And Virginia. Don't have to win those but if the margins are closer than 2020 then it's a great sign. Should know pretty early how things are going in those states. Will be indicative of the swing vote in the swing states.

The good thing about Virginia is that they are usually pretty quick getting out results and they close the polls fairly early. If he is within 2% or even 3% that's a good sign.

---

If Trump wins Virginia, it won't be reported early. Remember when Hillary asked media to show reporting of results? I can't find a link but I remember it happening.

They will wait to report if Trump wins it.

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Well, you've got GOP leadership of the state there.

I'm sure they'll help force the issue on this if it turns out to be the case.

Science Denier said:

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AtticusMatlock said:

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And Virginia. Don't have to win those but if the margins are closer than 2020 then it's a great sign. Should know pretty early how things are going in those states. Will be indicative of the swing vote in the swing states.

The good thing about Virginia is that they are usually pretty quick getting out results and they close the polls fairly early. If he is within 2% or even 3% that's a good sign.

---

If Trump wins Virginia, it won't be reported early. Remember when Hillary asked media to show reporting of results? I can't find a link but I remember it happening.

They will wait to report if Trump wins it.

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I think the point is not Trump winning Virginia, but if Virginia is shaping up early-ish in the evening as way closer than polls suggested, then the very close determining swing states like PA should be in the bag.

Be very dubious if somewhere like VA is close on Tuesday night and yet PA keeps counting for 2-3 days (again) until predetermined results are achieved (again).

SwigAg11 said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Marist has been a joke for most of this cycle. How I knw that is because it is the only poll Jessica Tarlov keeps haping on over and over.

Baris just dismisses them outright as not credible.

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I think Marist also has brand new pollsters leading it. The previous head pollsters were either fired or quit.

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Aah, did not know that. Thanks for the information.

Science Denier said:

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AtticusMatlock said:

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And Virginia. Don't have to win those but if the margins are closer than 2020 then it's a great sign. Should know pretty early how things are going in those states. Will be indicative of the swing vote in the swing states.

The good thing about Virginia is that they are usually pretty quick getting out results and they close the polls fairly early. If he is within 2% or even 3% that's a good sign.

---

If Trump wins Virginia, it won't be reported early. Remember when Hillary asked media to show reporting of results? I can't find a link but I remember it happening.

They will wait to report if Trump wins it.

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Trump is not winning Virginia or New Hampshire just like he is not losing Texas, Florida, or Iowa.

Respectfully…I'm not yet convinced about NH…

oh no said:

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Science Denier said:

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AtticusMatlock said:

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And Virginia. Don't have to win those but if the margins are closer than 2020 then it's a great sign. Should know pretty early how things are going in those states. Will be indicative of the swing vote in the swing states.

The good thing about Virginia is that they are usually pretty quick getting out results and they close the polls fairly early. If he is within 2% or even 3% that's a good sign.

---

If Trump wins Virginia, it won't be reported early. Remember when Hillary asked media to show reporting of results? I can't find a link but I remember it happening.

They will wait to report if Trump wins it.

---

I think the point is not Trump winning Virginia, but if Virginia is shaping up early-ish in the evening as way closer than polls suggested, then the very close determining swing states like PA should be in the bag.

Be very dubious if somewhere like VA is close on Tuesday night and yet PA keeps counting for 2-3 days (again) until predetermined results are achieved (again).

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I would be surprised if Trump wins Virginia, but would not be surprised if PA is called on election night right after the polls close if there is not massive turnout in Philly's urban precincts.

IDaggie06 said:

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Science Denier said:

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AtticusMatlock said:

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And Virginia. Don't have to win those but if the margins are closer than 2020 then it's a great sign. Should know pretty early how things are going in those states. Will be indicative of the swing vote in the swing states.

The good thing about Virginia is that they are usually pretty quick getting out results and they close the polls fairly early. If he is within 2% or even 3% that's a good sign.

---

If Trump wins Virginia, it won't be reported early. Remember when Hillary asked media to show reporting of results? I can't find a link but I remember it happening.

They will wait to report if Trump wins it.

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Trump is not winning Virginia or New Hampshire just like he is not losing Texas, Florida, or Iowa.

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NH is D+4. Texas, Florida and Iowa will be closer to R+8. They are not close to the same type of state in terms of being a lock.

It's not about winning, the tell will be the margin.

Quote:

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I would be surprised if Trump wins Virginia, but would not be surprised if PA is called on election night right after the polls close if there is not massive turnout in Philly's urban precincts.

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Have you seen any numbers for EV specifically for Fairfax and the surrounding blue counties in VA? If EV turnout for Dems is down in those locations, Trump has a chance to take the state, IMO.

FINAL EMERON POLL TODAY

Let's take a look at the final poll results in each of the states. First off, Kamala Harris only leads in one state, and ties in two others, while Donald Trump has leads in four:

AZ: Trump 50%, Harris 48%

GA: Trump 50%, Harris 49%

MI: Harris 50%, Trump 48%

NC: Trump 49%, Harris 48%

NV: Harris 48%, Trump 48%

PA: Trump 49%, Harris 48%

WI: Trump 49%, Harris 49%

aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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I would be surprised if Trump wins Virginia, but would not be surprised if PA is called on election night right after the polls close if there is not massive turnout in Philly's urban precincts.

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Have you seen any numbers for EV specifically for Fairfax and the surrounding blue counties in VA? If EV turnout for Dems is down in those locations, Trump has a chance to take the state, IMO.

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if the campaign was seeing any hope in VA

they would have Vance or Trump coming back to VA today or tomorrow

the closer it is -the better for the rest of the states though in more republican states

aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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I would be surprised if Trump wins Virginia, but would not be surprised if PA is called on election night right after the polls close if there is not massive turnout in Philly's urban precincts.

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Have you seen any numbers for EV specifically for Fairfax and the surrounding blue counties in VA? If EV turnout for Dems is down in those locations, Trump has a chance to take the state, IMO.

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Didn't say it couldn't happen or that I don't hope it will happen...just that I would be surprised.

Vegas now has Trump at -145, to win Electoral College, up from -140 this morning…

For those not familiar with the Vegas betting market of late, Trump got all the way up to -200 last week before it fell all the way back to -120…. And it's been slowly climbing, back up since…

texagbeliever said:

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IDaggie06 said:

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Science Denier said:

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AtticusMatlock said:

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And Virginia. Don't have to win those but if the margins are closer than 2020 then it's a great sign. Should know pretty early how things are going in those states. Will be indicative of the swing vote in the swing states.

The good thing about Virginia is that they are usually pretty quick getting out results and they close the polls fairly early. If he is within 2% or even 3% that's a good sign.

---

If Trump wins Virginia, it won't be reported early. Remember when Hillary asked media to show reporting of results? I can't find a link but I remember it happening.

They will wait to report if Trump wins it.

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Trump is not winning Virginia or New Hampshire just like he is not losing Texas, Florida, or Iowa.

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NH is D+4. Texas, Florida and Iowa will be closer to R+8. They are not close to the same type of state in terms of being a lock.

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I also posted this in the early voting thread, but it looks like R registration is now ahead in NH (if this is accurate)? Once again, like every past election, NH will come down the Independent vote.

Here's something interesting:
Registration for the state

2024: R+38,415 (R+4.3%)
2020: D+14,663 (D+1.3%)https://t.co/KXsTqF6Lov

— Matt (@mattykinsX) November 4, 2024

LMCane said:

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FINAL EMERON POLL TODAY

Let's take a look at the final poll results in each of the states. First off, Kamala Harris only leads in one state, and ties in two others, while Donald Trump has leads in four:

AZ: Trump 50%, Harris 48%

GA: Trump 50%, Harris 49%

MI: Harris 50%, Trump 48%

NC: Trump 49%, Harris 48%

NV: Harris 48%, Trump 48%

PA: Trump 49%, Harris 48%

WI: Trump 49%, Harris 49%

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what matters most is Trump flipping back GA, AZ, and PA. That's all he needs for 270. Two states that actually tried to do something re: election integrity since last time: GA and AZ. Just pay attention to shenanigans and irregularities in Maricopa co and Fulton co. The usual shenanigans are expected, but the mail in ballot requests were far less than last time, so hopefully the results aren't so easily manipulatable.

Then there's PA.

Get PA and it won't matter if you lose NC, or don't flip back WI, or don't flip MI or NV. Problem is, PA's results might be predetermined and I don't think people were flooding to the polling locations for early voting in numbers to make it too big to scam. I think PA is broken and untrustworthy in the Philly area and in Allegheny co. and there his no recourse with their captured state house or their court systems.

If you count PA as a loss, Trump would have to not only flip back GA and AZ, but also hold NC and flip one more - either NV or WI. These are all so close in the polls, but the regime would only have to get one more of WI or NC and it's over.

Science Denier said:

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AtticusMatlock said:

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And Virginia. Don't have to win those but if the margins are closer than 2020 then it's a great sign. Should know pretty early how things are going in those states. Will be indicative of the swing vote in the swing states.

The good thing about Virginia is that they are usually pretty quick getting out results and they close the polls fairly early. If he is within 2% or even 3% that's a good sign.

---

If Trump wins Virginia, it won't be reported early. Remember when Hillary asked media to show reporting of results? I can't find a link but I remember it happening.

They will wait to report if Trump wins it.

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Doubt it. That will be huge news. They want to be first to report something like that. So badly, they will be scrambling to make the call before the polls close there. That's my bet.

I didn't think anyone made the call anymore before the polls close after Florida in 2020?

Vegas just moved Trump to -150….

Man, that was kinda fast.

What was it before?

satexas said:

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Vegas just moved Trump to -150….

Man, that was kinda fast.

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The early voting drop off from D's is quite astonishing…

-120 was the low past 24 hours.

ttha_aggie_09 said:

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What was it before?

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See the last couple pages of this thread. Was -140 at like 4am this morning, then popped to -145 about an hour ago….

That equates to 54.55% implied odds to win.

Latest Balance of Power Odds

🟥 Presidency: 57% Republican
🟥 Senate: 81% Republican
🟦 House: 54% Democrat pic.twitter.com/Ybme3GZsjx

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 4, 2024

Captn_Ag05 said:

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#New General election poll

🔵 Harris 51% (+4)
🔴 Trump 47%

Marist #A - LV - 11/2

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 4, 2024

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If you dig down into their cross-tabs, several things stand out.

1) The crossover vote is a washout.
2) Trump is winning the Independent voters (7 points).
3) Trump is drastically leading with ED voters.
4) The went D+4 on their sample.
5) Preserving democracy was the most important issue, when pretty much all other national polls have economy/inflation as the top priority.

Putting that all together, it looks like they got to Harris +4 by assuming an electorate breakdown similar to 2020 which is absolutely not showing up right now in the EV data.

TLDR: garbage...

What are the current numbers on the House and the Senate?

GenericAggie said:

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What are the current numbers on the House and the Senate?

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Hope that Trump can pull enough R's across the line in the house. If not, expect 2938471098327501984 impeachments/investigations.

Senate should be 53+ for R's

Atlas Intel is the most accurate pollster out there.

will25u said:

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GenericAggie said:

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What are the current numbers on the House and the Senate?

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Hope that Trump can pull enough R's across the line in the house. If not, expect 2938471098327501984 impeachments/investigations.

Senate should be 53+ for R's

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WV/MT/OH gets to 52. Are you assuming McCormick to be the next one to win?

Quote:

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WV/MT/OH gets to 52. Are you assuming McCormick to be the next one to win?

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Since Philly is a Casey stronghold and voters are not showing out there, logical assumption, I think McCormick wins.