🇺🇲 Final National Poll: Leger/@nypost
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 3, 2024
🟥 Trump: 49%
🟦 Harris: 49%
🟪 Other: 2%
Last poll (9/27) - 🔵 Harris 51-47%
——
538 rank: #84 (2.0/3.0) | Likely voters https://t.co/4i0beWjjb4
I am not kidding. pic.twitter.com/oRn6tnqKp9
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 4, 2024
Because the national polling averages do not contribute much to the model's output.JDUB08AG said:
On simple terms, why is he applying a 2.1% national vote factor when his own polling aggregate is .9%?
YokelRidesAgain said:Because the national polling averages do not contribute much to the model's output.JDUB08AG said:
On simple terms, why is he applying a 2.1% national vote factor when his own polling aggregate is .9%?
He didn't say that; he says that if the actual margin of the popular vote is between 0 and Harris +1, Trump has an 85% chance of victory.JDUB08AG said:
Then why on his website would he attribute an 85% chance of a trump victory if national polling is between 0 and .9%?
YokelRidesAgain said:He didn't say that; he says that if the actual margin of the popular vote is between 0 and Harris +1, Trump has an 85% chance of victory.JDUB08AG said:
Then why on his website would he attribute an 85% chance of a trump victory if national polling is between 0 and .9%?
Again, Daugherty is just misrepresenting what Silver says.
Me too. I just looked at his website and he has Harris at +0.7 nationally.JDUB08AG said:YokelRidesAgain said:He didn't say that; he says that if the actual margin of the popular vote is between 0 and Harris +1, Trump has an 85% chance of victory.JDUB08AG said:
Then why on his website would he attribute an 85% chance of a trump victory if national polling is between 0 and .9%?
Again, Daugherty is just misrepresenting what Silver says.
I really must be missing something. How does his own aggregate polling have her at a .9% margin yet he is factoring in a 2.1% margin in his model?
I really don't know what to say other than to keep repeating the same point: the model is primarily based on state polls, not the aggregate of national polls.JDUB08AG said:
I really must be missing something. How does his own aggregate polling have her at a .9% margin yet he is factoring in a 2.1% margin in his model?
The model is updated at least once per day; the numbers changed minimally from yesterday.Tom Fox said:
Me too. I just looked at his website and he has Harris at +0.7 nationally.
📊 Final WISCONSIN poll by Trafalgar
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 4, 2024
🟦 Harris: 48.2% (+1.2)
🟥 Trump: 47.0%
🟪 Other: 2.6%
Last poll (10/20) - 🔴 Trump +0.2
——
WI Senate
🟥 Hovde: 48.4% (+0.5)
🟦 Baldwin: 47.9%
#279 (0.7/3.0) | 1,086 LV | 11/1-3https://t.co/zA4LbU7zQ8 pic.twitter.com/OvnLkC3N9P
📊 Final MICHIGAN poll by Trafalgar
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 4, 2024
🟥 Trump: 47.8% (+0.4)
🟦 Harris: 47.4%
🟪 Other: 2.3%
Last poll (10/20) - Trump +1.8
——
MI Senate
🟥 Rogers: 47.4% (+0.1)
🟦 Slotkin: 47.3%
Last poll - 🔵 Slotkin +1.4
——
#279 (0.7/3.0) | 1,086 LV | 11/1-3https://t.co/D4j5xtMwnl pic.twitter.com/djyaYl5yor
Decision Desk HQ/@thehill Battleground Poll Averages:
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 4, 2024
Florida - 31 polls
🟥 Donald Trump (R): 51.6% (+6.7)
🟦 Kamala Harris (D): 44.9%
[R+2.0 since last month]
Nevada - 54 polls
🟥 Donald Trump (R): 49.0% (+1.8)
🟦 Kamala Harris (D): 47.2%
[R+2.8 since last month]
Georgia - 65…
YokelRidesAgain said:I really don't know what to say other than to keep repeating the same point: the model is primarily based on state polls, not the aggregate of national polls.JDUB08AG said:
I really must be missing something. How does his own aggregate polling have her at a .9% margin yet he is factoring in a 2.1% margin in his model?
There is no "factoring in"; the model's output is what it is: the peak/50th percentile of the distribution (composed of 40,000 Monte Carlo simulations) is Harris +2.
#Updated Nate Silver model - Electoral collage
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 3, 2024
Harris takes the lead
🔵 Harris 270 🏆
🔴 Trump 267
It is true that the national polling suggests more of a movement toward Trump than swing state polling.texagbeliever said:
So you think it is perfectly reasonable for the nation to shift 5 points to the right nationally but the swing states will have less than 1 percent shift to the right. Yeah that math just doesn't add up. If someone isn't willing to reconcile those discrepancies then they shouldn't be taken seriously.
BREAKING: NYT pollster Nate Cohn announces white Republicans were not answering their polls nearly as much as Democrats - and says the polling miss could be similar to 2020. pic.twitter.com/o2rfY9tvQE
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 3, 2024
PM update. A lot of polling in the afternoon, but most of the higher-quality polls fired earlier in the weekend. Declining lead in national polls getting a little bit bearish for Harris, although the model doesn’t care about national polls much.https://t.co/vsGVG18HHI
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2024
🇺🇲 Final National Poll: Leger/@nypost
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 3, 2024
🟥 Trump: 49%
🟦 Harris: 49%
🟪 Other: 2%
Last poll (9/27) - 🔵 Harris 51-47%
——
538 rank: #84 (2.0/3.0) | Likely voters https://t.co/4i0beWjjb4
📊 ME-2 POLL: @UNHSurveyCenter
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 3, 2024
🟦 Jared Golden (inc): 45%
🟥 Austin Theriault: 44%
ME-2 (Pres) - 🔴 Trump 48-44%
——
Fav/unfav
Theriault: 40-43 (-3)
Golden: 32-44 (-12)
——
#28 (2.6/3.0) | 683 LV | 10/29-11-2https://t.co/61OBVMMzjq pic.twitter.com/53qFaAVH2Y
📊 Final NH Governor poll by UNH
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 3, 2024
🟥 Kelly Ayotte: 48% (+4)
🟦 Joyce Craig: 44%
Last poll - 🔵 Craig +1https://t.co/UstWuRhHVO https://t.co/cSgkRBcktw pic.twitter.com/CDyA0fLTER
satexas said:
For whatever it's worth, the Vegas market moved Trump from -130 back up to -140 this morning (Electoral College, not Population)
(It's biggest margin of late was -200 3-4 days ago).
For those that don't understand Vegas (betting lines) ... basically +/-100 or +/-110 is 50/50 ('pickem') odds.
For those that think this is off-topic... it's not. It's predictive just like the polls are - where "the smart money is" on the election based on what people think of the polls and what will happen.
I watch Vegas more than I do the polls themselves...
State of the Race T-1 day. Trump +0.1 boasts well. 2020 avg was biased for Biden by 2.4 pts and 2016 biased for Clinton by 1.1 pt. If the similar bias exists. It’d be Trump by +1 NPV at the minimum which will translate into 312+ EV win by Trump. Now or Never. Go vote!!! pic.twitter.com/tUCu4mMeqh
— au ng (@athein1) November 4, 2024
JUST IN: Donald Trump has reclaimed a 12% lead on Kalshi, just 24 hours before the election!https://t.co/97g5oM0y2a pic.twitter.com/KCxbwfZiKW
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) November 4, 2024
Betting Marketkgtg79 said:
Who is Kalshi?
WITH 1 DAY TO GO... TRUMP ODDS SURGE 13.8%
— Election Time (@ElectionTime_) November 4, 2024
2024 Election (Odds to Win)
🟥Trump 61.1% (+23)
🟦Harris 38.6% pic.twitter.com/DiDdKq3P82