Rasmussen final state polls

Arizona - Trump +2
Georgia - Trump +6
Michigan - Harris +1
Minnesota - Harris +3
Nevada - Trump +2
New Hampshire - Harris +1
New Mexico - Harris +5
North Carolina - Trump +3
Pennsylvania - Trump +2
Texas - Trump +6
Virginia - Harris +2
Wisconsin - Trump +3

Waffledynamics said:

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TheWoodlandsTxAg said:

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Data shows men are planning to vote in huge numbers Tuesday.

If that happens, Trump is President.

— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) November 1, 2024

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Where is this data? Any polls, surveys, anything?

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"Procrastinating men say they won't procrastinate. More at 11:00"

WI I think will be the most interesting to watch Tuesday night;

#NEW FINAL STATE polls

🔴 GA: Trump+6
🔴 NC: Trump+3
🔴 WI: Trump+3
🔴 AZ: Trump+2
🔴 NV: Trump+2
🔴 PA: Trump+2
🔵 MI: Harris+1
🔵 NH: Harris+1
🔵 VA: Harris+2
🔵 MN: Harris+3
🔵 NM: Harris+5@Rasmussen_Poll | LVs

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 1, 2024

(Well, and MI, but that will take longer a la PA).

All RR polls I think, their compilation based on various sponsors over the cycle:

Finally done!

Thanks @AmericanThinker

Video roundup and final crosstabs and articles coming soon. pic.twitter.com/ItbVFjWJ08

— Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports (@Mark_R_Mitchell) November 1, 2024

And, for the record…

Guys, stop behaving like rookies.

The reason you are getting the usual MSM pollsters (Marist/CNN/Suffolk/Ipsos) flooding the zone with good polls for Harris in the Rust Belt is b/c it’s now common knowledge that this is now Harris’ 1 path to victory.

The Sun Belt is gone.

Her…

— David Giglio (@DavidGiglioCA) November 1, 2024

Captn_Ag05 said:

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Rasmussen final state polls

Arizona - Trump +2
Georgia - Trump +6
Michigan - Harris +1
Minnesota - Harris +3
Nevada - Trump +2
New Hampshire - Harris +1
New Mexico - Harris +5
North Carolina - Trump +3
Pennsylvania - Trump +2
Texas - Trump +6
Virginia - Harris +2
Wisconsin - Trump +3

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That number in Michigan is more than likely incorrect if Trump is winning in PA and WI.

I gotta be honest…my eyes will be on reports coming out of PA on Tuesday…

If they are Trump favorable…I think that will be foreshadowing for the evening…

I think that's the state where we find out if polling is good this year (or at least whose is good)…

aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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To help cut through the noise and give a clearer picture of where things stand, I spoke with Mark Mitchell, the head pollster at Rasmussen Reports, for his read on the race in these final days.

He told me he's seeing an election comparable to 1980.

"I think this is Reagan/Carter," Mitchell told me. "I think there are very specific reasons."
He explained, "I thought this whole time that Trump would outperform my polling," largely because voter loyalty has shifted, and traditional party affiliation "means a lot less." To account for this, Mitchell adjusted Rasmussen's polling method to "weight by recall vote," which focuses on how voters cast their ballots in 2020, rather than relying solely on demographics like age, gender, or race.

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Quote:

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Mitchell's polling has shown Trump with a consistent lead, even "up two points nationally," revealing a "mind change of about 6-7 points" from Biden to Trump from 2020 to 2024. He attributes this shift to "low propensity voters crawling over broken glass to vote Trump" while some Democrat-leaning voters stay "on the couch in traditional blue areas." Mitchell argues that the polling industry is still "a little bit left" of reality and underestimates the enthusiasm among Trump's base.

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LINK

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Carter was leading all the way up until about 3 weeks before the election in 1980 when the polls suddenly jerked towards Reagan. When I say "jerked" it was not a slow trend over that time frame. Went to Reagan and never looked back.

#New General election poll - Florida - Puerto Rican Voters

🔵 Harris 85%
🔴 Trump 8%

UCF - 150 LV - 10/30

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 1, 2024

FireAg said:

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I gotta be honest…my eyes will be on reports coming out of PA on Tuesday…

If they are Trump favorable…I think that will be foreshadowing for the evening…

I think that's the state where we find out if polling is good this year (or at least whose is good)…

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Agree, but would also like to know historically, how quick does Wisconsin report in officially. I'm betting PA takes several days.

#NEW FINAL NATIONAL poll

🔴 Trump: 49% (+1)
🔵 Harris: 48%@QuantusInsights | 10/27-30 | N=1,832LV

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 1, 2024

#NEW FINAL NATIONAL poll

🔴 Trump: 48% (+0.7)
🔵 Harris: 47.3%
🟣 Oliver: 1.8%
🟢 Stein: 1.2%
🟠 West: 0.6%@BIGDATAPOLL | 10/27-29 | N=2,814LV

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 1, 2024

#NEW FINAL STATE polls

🔴 GA: Trump+6
🔴 NC: Trump+3
🔴 WI: Trump+3
🔴 AZ: Trump+2
🔴 NV: Trump+2
🔴 PA: Trump+2
🔵 MI: Harris+1
🔵 NH: Harris+1
🔵 VA: Harris+2
🔵 MN: Harris+3
🔵 NM: Harris+5@Rasmussen_Poll | LVs

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 1, 2024

Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:

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FireAg said:

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I gotta be honest…my eyes will be on reports coming out of PA on Tuesday…

If they are Trump favorable…I think that will be foreshadowing for the evening…

I think that's the state where we find out if polling is good this year (or at least whose is good)…

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Agree, but would also like to know historically, how quick does Wisconsin report in officially. I'm betting PA takes several days.

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I don't need finals…just a solid trend that makes it near impossible to take at 2am…if he has a 2pt lead with 75% reporting in PA on election night, then that would match polling, and I would feel comfortable…

I think Kamala has lost the sun belt. She won't win NC, GA, or AZ and likely not NV. Her only path is going 3 for 3 on the rust belt and hope Trump doesn't pick off NH.

I don't see her doing better than Biden in the rust belt which is mostly white and heavy blue collar. I said at the beginning she had a problem with rust belt voters that Biden didn't have. We'll see if that holds true

Our first model run of November! One of Harris's better updates lately, at least in the Blue Wall states.https://t.co/vsGVG189Sa pic.twitter.com/3Bp6uYuQp2

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 1, 2024

It was talked about a few pages back how the Marist poll would impact this

I'm banking on a 'surprise' win of NH and we all get to bed about 10PM knowing our new POTUS elect is Trump because the Rust Belt won't matter.

Anyone else looking forward to the Selzer/DMR Iowa poll dropping tomorrow?

For those unfamiliar:

Iowa Poll will show if Donald Trump or Kamala Harris has the edge before Election Day

The Iowa Poll, a Register exclusive since 1943, is a closely watched indicator of candidate strength during election cycles, as well as Iowans' opinions on other important issues.

Does Vice President Kamala Harris have a chance of beating former President Donald Trump in ruby-red Iowa?

With Election Day right around the corner, our new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll will reveal whether Harris or Trump has the upper hand among Iowa voters.

Our last poll in September showed Trump leading Harris by 4 percentage points, a much tighter race than our June poll, which showed Trump leading President Joe Biden by 18 points. Biden eventually dropped out of the race.

The initial results from the November Iowa Poll will be published online at 6 p.m. Saturday at DesMoinesRegister.com. Those results also will be published in print in the Des Moines Register on Sunday.

nortex97 said:

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WI I think will be the most interesting to watch Tuesday night;

#NEW FINAL STATE polls

🔴 GA: Trump+6
🔴 NC: Trump+3
🔴 WI: Trump+3
🔴 AZ: Trump+2
🔴 NV: Trump+2
🔴 PA: Trump+2
🔵 MI: Harris+1
🔵 NH: Harris+1
🔵 VA: Harris+2
🔵 MN: Harris+3
🔵 NM: Harris+5@Rasmussen_Poll | LVs

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 1, 2024

(Well, and MI, but that will take longer a la PA).

All RR polls I think, their compilation based on various sponsors over the cycle:

Finally done!

Thanks @AmericanThinker

Video roundup and final crosstabs and articles coming soon. pic.twitter.com/ItbVFjWJ08

— Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports (@Mark_R_Mitchell) November 1, 2024

And, for the record…

Guys, stop behaving like rookies.

The reason you are getting the usual MSM pollsters (Marist/CNN/Suffolk/Ipsos) flooding the zone with good polls for Harris in the Rust Belt is b/c it’s now common knowledge that this is now Harris’ 1 path to victory.

The Sun Belt is gone.

Her…

— David Giglio (@DavidGiglioCA) November 1, 2024

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I think the interesting one to watch is NH because it's Election Day voting only. Anything can happen.

Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:

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FireAg said:

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I gotta be honest…my eyes will be on reports coming out of PA on Tuesday…

If they are Trump favorable…I think that will be foreshadowing for the evening…

I think that's the state where we find out if polling is good this year (or at least whose is good)…

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Agree, but would also like to know historically, how quick does Wisconsin report in officially. I'm betting PA takes several days.

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In 2016 they reported Trump took the state early - around 10:30pm.

I agree about NH…but I'm just not seeing enough in polling to give me any confidence…

I thought maybe earlier this week when polls showed a shift to Trump, and Harris responded by sending Clinton up there…but since…haven't seen much to make me confident in the polls for NH…

But…make no mistake…if NH goes early on Tuesday for Trump…it's over…there's enough in other state polling numbers to come to that conclusion, IMHO…

Here’s the cheat sheet pic.twitter.com/WBPJ93OPn1

— FOR THE PEOPLE (@jamie_reinhold) November 1, 2024

Two of the top 5 have Trump polling ahead.

I haven't seen Wick or trafalger

backintexas2013 said:

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Two of the top 5 have Trump polling ahead.

I haven't seen Wick or trafalger

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Trafalgar has Trump consistently ahead all over the place.

Just found insider advantage. They have Wisconsin going to Trump.

Wonder what direction they made their error. Marist is easy to tell.

So the mods might delete this post but I'll share my experience anyway since it IS relevant to polling. Tonight I FINALLY received my first election survey from Ipsos. I'm guessing they're finally trying to perform a balanced poll so they don't look too terrible at the end, who knows, but I will give them credit for finally polling me.

For those who didn't know (since my posts got deleted for some reason) I've been an Ipsos survey taker for over two years now and received MANY election poll surveys in 2022 as well as earlier this year when Biden was still running but received zero for Kamala until tonight.

Marist may not be as biased as people think.

Marist is pretty fair

Definitely not compromised like the other pollsters taking $500k from Trump to have him in the lead lol pic.twitter.com/7zNghq6NxU

— Anthony (@Baldwin1970) November 1, 2024

You need to go look up their record with the Rust Belt. It's bad; they do terribly polling the Rust Belt compared to other pollsters.

Midterms and general elections are significantly different when polling

Pretty bad on an aggregate from 2014-2022 with a 5.2 MOE favoring dems

That's not a presidential poll. Look at 2020. They missed badly.

Who is Anthony @baldwin1960 and are we supposed to believe him?

One last thing - I asked this because @amyewalter planted the idea in my head. I think you’ll be interested in what people say this election is about to them, when they are asked as an open ended question. pic.twitter.com/6Z3ukmJMCp

— Kristen Soltis Anderson (@KSoltisAnderson) November 1, 2024