Muh Polls

779,308 Views | 5731 Replies | Last: 55 min ago by LMCane
rathAG05
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1:25p, 11/1/24
AG
I'm surprised he's going that far out on a limb.
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Rockdoc
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1:31p, 11/1/24
AG
I'm not sure what he means by stalled
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LMCane
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In reply to Rockdoc • 1:33p, 11/1/24
Rockdoc said:
I'm not sure what he means by stalled
that like in the polymarket

he had been advancing steadily, peaked and now the race is getting closer
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AggieMD95
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1:35p, 11/1/24
AG
In my immediate fam
3 T are banked
2 more T saved for Election Day
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Rockdoc
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In reply to LMCane • 1:38p, 11/1/24
AG
LMCane said:
Rockdoc said:
I'm not sure what he means by stalled
that like in the polymarket

he had been advancing steadily, peaked and now the race is getting closer

Well he says stalled, then he says "wrapped"
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kag00
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In reply to Rockdoc • 1:39p, 11/1/24
AG
Rockdoc said:
I'm not sure what he means by stalled


And why do we care what lobbyists think? They aren't campaign and election experts.
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Philip J Fry
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1:50p, 11/1/24
AG
This is why I hate twitter.

I read it as Trump's momentum had stalled and his reply is that the election is over and that Harris will win.

But what I think he means is that the democrats have shot their wad and it's going to be a Trump landslide
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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1:59p, 11/1/24
Mark doesn't make predictions and he followed that up with a tweet saying as much. By stalled, he's saying Trump probably will have to stick to winning what he needs to win, because VA/NH isn't going to happen … ie "stalled"
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rathAG05
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In reply to Mostly Foggy Recollection • 2:10p, 11/1/24
AG
Didn't he say yesterday that VA and NH were in real play?
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98Ag99Grad
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2:17p, 11/1/24
AG
That's 2 different Marks tweeting; not the same guy.
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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In reply to rathAG05 • 2:29p, 11/1/24
rathAG05 said:
Didn't he say yesterday that VA and NH were in real play?


Mark from Rasmussen said that. Mark Halperin did not.
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nortex97
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2:30p, 11/1/24
AG
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Gaeilge
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In reply to nortex97 • 2:37p, 11/1/24
This is a horrible, trash poll. 400LV and a 4.9% MOE.

I'd love for Brown to win, but Rosen is going to beat him by at least 4pts and it is unfortunate to say, because he is a combat vet wounded in action, but his facial scars scare people.
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txags92
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In reply to Rockdoc • 2:47p, 11/1/24
AG
Rockdoc said:
LMCane said:
Rockdoc said:
I'm not sure what he means by stalled
that like in the polymarket

he had been advancing steadily, peaked and now the race is getting closer

Well he says stalled, then he says "wrapped"
Two different Mark's tweeting there. One says he is stalled, the other says he is wrapped.
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FireAg
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In reply to txags92 • 2:51p, 11/1/24
AG
txags92 said:
Rockdoc said:
LMCane said:
Rockdoc said:
I'm not sure what he means by stalled
that like in the polymarket

he had been advancing steadily, peaked and now the race is getting closer

Well he says stalled, then he says "wrapped"
Two different Mark's tweeting there. One says he is stalled, the other says he is wrapped.

Which one should we believe?
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txags92
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In reply to FireAg • 2:54p, 11/1/24
AG
FireAg said:
txags92 said:
Rockdoc said:
LMCane said:
Rockdoc said:
I'm not sure what he means by stalled
that like in the polymarket

he had been advancing steadily, peaked and now the race is getting closer

Well he says stalled, then he says "wrapped"
Two different Mark's tweeting there. One says he is stalled, the other says he is wrapped.

Which one should we believe?
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4
aggiehawg
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2:54p, 11/1/24
AG


That's one helluva flip!
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nortex97
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In reply to aggiehawg • 2:56p, 11/1/24
AG
That's a nice one.
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FireAg
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In reply to aggiehawg • 2:58p, 11/1/24
AG
aggiehawg said:


That's one helluva flip!

How is that even possible?

These wild swings are becoming bizarre…
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aggiehawg
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In reply to FireAg • 3:02p, 11/1/24
AG
FireAg said:
txags92 said:
Rockdoc said:
LMCane said:
Rockdoc said:
I'm not sure what he means by stalled
that like in the polymarket

he had been advancing steadily, peaked and now the race is getting closer

Well he says stalled, then he says "wrapped"
Two different Mark's tweeting there. One says he is stalled, the other says he is wrapped.

Which one should we believe?
The guy from Rasmussen. Halperin is too partisan and as we get closer to the election he shows it more and more. Why is his evening streams without Spicer have a tiny audience watching compared to the morning stream with Spicer. Morning has 12-15 thousand in the audience. Evening stream with Halperin never craced 2,000 last night.
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DTP02
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In reply to FireAg • 3:09p, 11/1/24
AG
FireAg said:
txags92 said:
Rockdoc said:
LMCane said:
Rockdoc said:
I'm not sure what he means by stalled
that like in the polymarket

he had been advancing steadily, peaked and now the race is getting closer

Well he says stalled, then he says "wrapped"
Two different Mark's tweeting there. One says he is stalled, the other says he is wrapped.

Which one should we believe?


One way to get past the stall is to wrap. Some purists don't like it but that stall can really throw off the timing for your BBQ.
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6
oh no
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In reply to Gaeilge • 3:11p, 11/1/24
AG
Gaeilge said:
This is a horrible, trash poll. 400LV and a 4.9% MOE.

I'd love for Brown to win, but Rosen is going to beat him by at least 4pts and it is unfortunate to say, because he is a combat vet wounded in action, but his facial scars scare people.
I choose to believe this poll telling me that Sam Brown has a chance to win. He's a beautiful human being
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aggiehawg
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3:16p, 11/1/24
AG
Quote:
Data expert Nate Silver is known for making big calls on elections and at the poker table, and right now, those two worlds have converged as both presidential election polls and betting markets show momentum building for Donald Trump and declining for Kamala Harris with less than a week to go before Election Day.
Silver is on the record since last week as saying the odds favor Trump he laid out his call in a New York Times op-ed but he also described it as a "gut instinct" rather than more certain data science. In an interview with CNBC's "Closing Bell: Overtime" anchor Jon Fortt at the CNBC Technology Executive Council Summit in New York City on Tuesday, Silver laid out several big caveats about current polling and betting markets.

Silver told Fortt that his current model shows the odds favoring Trump, who holds a 55% to 45% win probability advantage over Harris.
But he also said for any anecdotal example he can offer as to why Trump's momentum is peaking, "there is a counter example."
Trump's momentum in the polls has narrowed or erased Harris's lead in some key swing states, but Silver says he thinks that after two cycles in a row in which the polls were "pretty bad" and plenty of criticism pointed at the polling industry ever since 2016, "a lot of pollsters are throwing up their hands."
"They're printing a tie," Silver said at the CNBC event, giving the example of a hypothetical pollster conversation: "'Harris is up 3%? Let's say 1%. Trump up by 4? Let's say 1.5%. There is what we call herding, where people are gravitating towards the consensus. They don't want opinions too out of line."
Another factor that could be skewing the polls is if Trump's voters are more "charged up and excited," which might lead them to partake in more polls than they have historically, and lead Harris-leaning voters to partake in polls less.

Political polling is never as precise as people expect, Silver said, noting that in most scenarios if you modeled a 52%-48% edge and it turned out to be the reverse, that would still be pretty close. But political polling is an exception, and it is getting even more difficult for the polls to get things right.
Video at LINK
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Captn_Ag05
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3:23p, 11/1/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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3:25p, 11/1/24
AG
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FireAg
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 3:32p, 11/1/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:

Link not working?
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PA24
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3:34p, 11/1/24
AG
Only 1 working day left before the majority of the country votes:

Trump is in a good place per the polls.
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Ag In Ok
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In reply to PA24 • 3:40p, 11/1/24
AG
Agreed but hundred is billions is at stake, I'll believe it when the final results are in, maybe the swearing in. Too much money is at risk for those in power. Ironic it took a billionaire to threaten their kleptocracy
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SquirrellyDan
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3:44p, 11/1/24
AG
I'm cautiously optimistic. I think there's enough people who will vote for Trump without telling anyone, pollsters included, to remove any margin of error we see in all polls. I refuse to believe a significant number of people outside of whacked out dems can't see the smear campaign against Trump for what it is. The Nazi, Hitler, Fascist rhetoric in my opinion will the the main factor in Trump winning.
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NPH-
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3:52p, 11/1/24
AG
I do think there is still a larger contingent of shy trump voters who will assuredly vote for him in the ballot box but is afraid to publicly state so
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to FireAg • 3:55p, 11/1/24
AG
FireAg said:
Captn_Ag05 said:

Link not working?

Strange. Fixed.
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Captn_Ag05
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3:55p, 11/1/24
AG
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FireAg
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 3:56p, 11/1/24
AG
Yeesh…wish you hadn't fixed it..lol
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Rockdoc
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In reply to FireAg • 3:57p, 11/1/24
AG
It's meaningless
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aggiehawg
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4:07p, 11/1/24
AG
Quote:
To help cut through the noise and give a clearer picture of where things stand, I spoke with Mark Mitchell, the head pollster at Rasmussen Reports, for his read on the race in these final days.

He told me he's seeing an election comparable to 1980.

"I think this is Reagan/Carter," Mitchell told me. "I think there are very specific reasons."
He explained, "I thought this whole time that Trump would outperform my polling," largely because voter loyalty has shifted, and traditional party affiliation "means a lot less." To account for this, Mitchell adjusted Rasmussen's polling method to "weight by recall vote," which focuses on how voters cast their ballots in 2020, rather than relying solely on demographics like age, gender, or race.
Quote:
Mitchell's polling has shown Trump with a consistent lead, even "up two points nationally," revealing a "mind change of about 6-7 points" from Biden to Trump from 2020 to 2024. He attributes this shift to "low propensity voters crawling over broken glass to vote Trump" while some Democrat-leaning voters stay "on the couch in traditional blue areas." Mitchell argues that the polling industry is still "a little bit left" of reality and underestimates the enthusiasm among Trump's base.
LINK
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