Muh Polls

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SwigAg11
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12:12p, 10/31/24
AG
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TRM
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 12:18p, 10/31/24
AG
Harris is winning the high propensity voter. Trump's winning the low propensity voters, so it just matters how many low propensity voters get to the polls.
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Gaeilge
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 12:18p, 10/31/24
That would be epic to win the election and not even worry about the rust belt states possible election night shenanigans!
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aezmvp
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In reply to TRM • 12:20p, 10/31/24
That's because GOP high propensity voters vote overwhelmingly on election day.
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dallasiteinsa02
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12:20p, 10/31/24
I have been wanting New Hampshire for my sanity on election night. Always called same day. Very little drama other than it being tight. Breaks the blue wall.
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TRM
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In reply to aezmvp • 12:22p, 10/31/24
AG
nm misread tweet.
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SwigAg11
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In reply to Gaeilge • 12:23p, 10/31/24
AG
Gaeilge said:
That would be epic to win the election and not even worry about the rust belt states possible election night shenanigans!
Baris and Barnes have had some discussions on Maine at-large as well. It's another state that's difficult to poll. The number appear to be pretty tight based on polling, and it all depends on if the blue collar workers are motivated enough this election.

Edit I may not be remembering correctly, but I think Barnes said he would put money on ME at-large going for Trump before NH.
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FrioAg 00
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12:26p, 10/31/24
AG
On Bovada,

Mich has moved down to -105 for Trump, Wisc has moved down to -130 for Trump.

However, Virginia improved to +350 and NH at +400


PA remains the focus, holding firm at Trump -180
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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to TRM • 12:37p, 10/31/24
TRM said:
Harris is winning the high propensity voter. Trump's winning the low propensity voters, so it just matters how many low propensity voters get to the polls.


The counterclaim is that the Republican low propensity voter is voting early, and the high propensity voter is waiting until ED because that's when they always go
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Quo Vadis?
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12:39p, 10/31/24
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SwigAg11
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 12:40p, 10/31/24
AG
Quo Vadis? said:
Someone mentioned a few pages back that they wanted to redo their NC numbers cause it seemed so off.

ETA: Atlas Intel had Harris up in only NC. They had Trump up in ever other swing state.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 12:44p, 10/31/24
AG
Maine does a student mock election. Over 20,000 students from 140 schools participated.



Trump won. Anecdotal, yes but kids often mirror what they hear from their parents.
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SwigAg11
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In reply to aggiehawg • 12:47p, 10/31/24
AG
I saw that mock ME student poll. I think it's been nearly perfect for the last several presidential elections.
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TRM
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 12:48p, 10/31/24
AG
Do they have a voter breakout by category to know the actual splits?

If it's a 10:1 High prop to low split Harris is ahead, if it's 5:1 to she'd be behind.
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SwigAg11
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In reply to TRM • 12:49p, 10/31/24
AG
TRM said:
Do they have a voter breakout by category to know the actual splits?

If it's a 10:1 High prop to low split Harris is ahead, if it's 5:1 to she'd be behind.
Those are polls and not EV data. However, they may give some of that information in their cross-tabs depending on if they asked voter history questions.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 12:51p, 10/31/24
AG
SwigAg11 said:
I saw that mock ME student poll. I think it's been nearly perfect for the last several presidential elections.
Yeah. I think the only one they got wrong was Susan Collins getting reelected last time.
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AgResearch
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 1:18p, 10/31/24
AG
Assume the poll will be post Biden garbage
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txags92
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 1:30p, 10/31/24
AG
That seems to track well with the data showing Dem high propensity already having voted and R high propensity still in the tank and likely to vote on ED.
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nortex97
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1:31p, 10/31/24
AG
Trump up a bit further in battlegrounds/nationally in the avg:

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nortex97
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1:43p, 10/31/24
AG
How Quinnipiac has flipped their polling in PA the past 3 months is significant:
Quote:
What changed in PA for Quinnipiac? The gender gap, and this is particularly worrisome for Democrats in other races:
Quote:
Men back Trump 57 37 percent, while women back Harris 55 39 percent. In Quinnipiac University's October 9 poll, men backed Trump 52 41 percent, while women backed Harris 55 40 percent.
Trump went from a +11 with men to a +20, while the split among women remained pretty much static.

What changed in those three weeks? For one thing, Trump sat with Joe Rogan for three hours, while Harris hung out with Beyonc. For another, the Obamas and Hillary Clinton showed up to harangue men about their misogyny and racism for not being enthusiastic about Kamala Harris. One has to wonder where men in PA are now after Joe Biden's "garbage" comment too, and Trump's response to it.

Another worrisome trend for Democrats in the presidential race: the black vote. In my previous post, I looked at Politico's warning in North Carolina about turnout and draw in this demo, but the same appears true in PA. According to the Q-poll internals, Trump gets 15% of the black vote while Harris only gets 72%, with 5% going to Jill Stein and the rest undecided. In a head--to-head matchup, Trump gets 16% of the black vote while Harris only gets 77%. Four years ago, Biden won PA by 1.2% while winning this demo 92/7, just as in North Carolina. If Trump gets 15% of the black vote in PA, then Harris is in deep trouble, especially with the gender gap where Quinnipiac puts it.
This is important, imho, even though I don't respect the pollster overall as being particularly good/accurate.
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SwigAg11
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2:05p, 10/31/24
AG
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FrioAg 00
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 2:08p, 10/31/24
AG
I believe this one to be very accurate, which is both encouraging and discouraging when you look those bottom three and how tight they are
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Silvertaps
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2:09p, 10/31/24
AG
How is AtlasIntel polling rated in the world of polling quality history?
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ttha_aggie_09
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In reply to Silvertaps • 2:10p, 10/31/24
AG
The most accurate from 2020
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TheHulkster
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In reply to Silvertaps • 2:10p, 10/31/24
AG
2.7 out of 3 stars on 538, and I believe one of, if not the, most accurate last cycle.
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SwigAg11
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In reply to ttha_aggie_09 • 2:12p, 10/31/24
AG
ttha_aggie_09 said:
The most accurate from 2020
This. They were off on average 1.94 points in 2020.
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SwigAg11
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2:20p, 10/31/24
AG
This is another highly rated pollster (2.7/3.0), though this seems a little bullish for Trump. However, the EV data does seem to suggest this is possible.

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Mr President Elect
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 2:23p, 10/31/24
AG
SwigAg11 said:
WI being left of MI & PA seems suspect, but w/in MOE I suppose.
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nortex97
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2:37p, 10/31/24
AG
Funny.



Before anyone jumps off a cliff about 62 vs. 66 on polymarket:
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GoAgs92
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2:43p, 10/31/24
AG
People profit taking on Polymarket pushing the odds for Trump down?
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ttha_aggie_09
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In reply to nortex97 • 2:45p, 10/31/24
AG
Explain this to me like I have never seen betting odds before. Why is going down to 62 vs 66 a good thing?
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SwigAg11
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2:45p, 10/31/24
AG
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nortex97
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In reply to ttha_aggie_09 • 2:47p, 10/31/24
AG
The positive is the shift the past week in the battleground states.
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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In reply to ttha_aggie_09 • 2:47p, 10/31/24
ttha_aggie_09 said:
Explain this to me like I have never seen betting odds before. Why is going down to 62 vs 66 a good thing?


No different than stock price movement. Could be price manipulation by a whale or three to get cheaper. Remember, each contract for a candidate is a silo, and the odds don't have to equal 100%
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ttha_aggie_09
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 2:47p, 10/31/24
AG
Given the source, that is pretty remarkable
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