Muh Polls

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ttha_aggie_09
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:47a, 10/30/24
AG
Another atlasintel:

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Philip J Fry
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7:49a, 10/30/24
AG
There's no way Trump wins the popular vote by 3 and loses NC.
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nortex97
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 8:16a, 10/30/24
AG
100 percent agree. There was a comment down from that poll from one of the Rasmussen guys that NC is one of the most challenging states to poll, which I think reflects some of the wild numbers around it in the same time frame.

The public polls can sometimes show something way different, but the EV and (much larger/not dependent on opt in calling) private polls are probably why Harris is pulling (future/non-committed) ad spending out. I know this isn't the early voting thread but from what I've seen there it's basically over for the Dems. I think the 300-800 sample size opt in polls are really struggling there precisely because…western NC has fewer respondents at this point, but they are voting enormously.



And public faith in the MSM is so low, they have no ability to turn the polls around;


Another day, another bump:
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Captn_Ag05
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8:26a, 10/30/24
AG
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ToddyHill
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In reply to mslags97 • 8:31a, 10/30/24
AG
Quote:
2022 was supposed to and should have been the red wave. Trump wasn't on the ballot, but his backed candidates did horrible, and the Dems were undervalued in those polls leading up to 2022.

Now, all of that being said, it is a reasons for concern, but I don't think things are at all the same now as they were 2 years ago. The craptastic biden/harris years have continued to spiral downward in amazing fashion. Trump has been different as far as a candidate this time as well. He still does not pull his punches, but he is aggressive and doesn't back down.
He has pushed an actual plan and agenda much more this time than ever before. And, again, the border, inflation, and the economy were destroyed by the harris/biden administration. I remember the momentum and fervor the MAGA movement had in 2016 and 2020. It is nothing like this. The Republican Party is a united party more so than any time since the great communicator, Ronald Reagan. I don't think there is any way to account for the diversity of support Trump now has.

I was at the MSG Rally on Sunday. I was surrounded by minorities. Cubans. Asians. Jewish (even a family from Israel that came just for the rally; they told me 80% of Israel supports Trump. And that's because 20% of Israel's population are Arabs). Several black families. Not just black adults, but families. A couple of typical New Yorkers. And several other Hispanics. In my section, whites were the minority. I'm not exaggerating. It was pretty incredible. The rally itself didn't get the actual coverage it probably deserved. There were 4 square blocks basically shud down around MSG/Penn Ststion, and that area was full of Trump supporters. Screens outside and the speeches were aired in that area. There were trucks driving around most of Manhattan with MAGA flags blaring the rally from speakers in the back of trucks. And this had to be planned because it is so rare to see trucks in Manhattan. My wife and daughter didn't go to the rally and actually explored NYC while I was there. They saw a couple. There was very little of any resistance from harris supporters. No arguments. A very few minor supporters trying to be heard, but I'm literally talking about dozens compared to thousands…. I know he isn't going to even make NY interesting as far as turning it red, but I firmly believe this kind of fervor in a place as blue as NYC really speaks to what we are seeing happen across the entire country.

People are motivated to vote. Look at the first time voter in Fla who had a Trump shirt on and had to take it off to vote in her bra. These voters can't be polled or counted or expected. And the left is so blind with hate and their superiority complex that they can't see what is happening right in front of them. Fetterman may be the only sane dem saying it out loud when he was talking about how real this Trump movement is.

All of that with this background: until last week, I was feeling like Trump's chances to win were very slim. Even with the positive movement. But I'm believing now. I could be totally wrong, but I don't think the pollsters are even close. I think it's a blowout, and I'm praying we know early starting with VA and NH and ending with a NM surprise. And I'm really pulling for my favorite candidate of all running right now, Hung Cao. Dude is a stud!!
To echo your point, I have a business acquaintance who lives in Manhattan who is black, female, and an attorney with an MBA. She tried to get tickets to the rally but could not. Instead, she went down to MSG to hang out. She said it was 99% Trump supporters 3 blocks deep. And she's an enthusiastic Trump supporter.
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Captn_Ag05
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8:32a, 10/30/24
AG
[Consistent with our approach thus far, we're going to keep this thread focused on polls and essentially free of Electoral College Projections, especially a 269-269 tie which would result in numerous derails away from a polls conversation. As we transition into next week, we'll relax the scope as polls will be less meaningful then and turnout, EC projections become much more relevant -- Staff]
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JB99
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In reply to nortex97 • 8:32a, 10/30/24
AG
nortex97 said:
100 percent agree. There was a comment down from that poll from one of the Rasmussen guys that NC is one of the most challenging states to poll, which I think reflects some of the wild numbers around it in the same time frame.

The public polls can sometimes show something way different, but the EV and (much larger/not dependent on opt in calling) private polls are probably why Harris is pulling (future/non-committed) ad spending out. I know this isn't the early voting thread but from what I've seen there it's basically over for the Dems. I think the 300-800 sample size opt in polls are really struggling there precisely because…western NC has fewer respondents at this point, but they are voting enormously.



And public faith in the MSM is so low, they have no ability to turn the polls around;


Another day, another bump:


What does the graph show that Guy Benson posted on twitter?
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nortex97
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In reply to JB99 • 8:35a, 10/30/24
AG
Trust in media.
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Captn_Ag05
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8:36a, 10/30/24
AG
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IDaggie06
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In reply to ts5641 • 9:32a, 10/30/24
AG
ts5641 said:
I remember almost every poll since 2016 undercounting Republicans not dems. Not sure I buy that at all.
Look at the very first post on this Muh polls thread, this thread literally started because of how bad republicans performed in 2022 along with a chart showing it. If anything remotely like that happens in 2024 (yes I know Trump was not on the ballot in 2022) then this will not be good.
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4stringAg
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In reply to IDaggie06 • 9:35a, 10/30/24
AG
IDaggie06 said:
ts5641 said:
I remember almost every poll since 2016 undercounting Republicans not dems. Not sure I buy that at all.
Look at the very first post on this Muh polls thread, this thread literally started because of how bad republicans performed in 2022 along with a chart showing it. If anything remotely like that happens in 2024 (yes I know Trump was not on the ballot in 2022) then this will not be good.
Agree. Its what scares me a bit about the polls. But I balance that with what is showing on the early voting thread and it seems like Rs (along with no/low propensity voters) are turning out early while Dems seem lukewarm in the early voting.
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Captn_Ag05
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10:08a, 10/30/24
AG
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nortex97
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 10:14a, 10/30/24
AG
LOL @ registered voters poll in less than a week from the election from those guys. Seriously, they are just trying to put out something to show they called PA correctly, imho.
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oh no
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10:16a, 10/30/24
AG
if what they're reporting on R turnout so far during early voting in places like New Jersey is true, it's hard not to believe some of these blue wall polls that have Trump ahead. Trump should win PA, WI, and maybe MI, imo.
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aezmvp
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In reply to oh no • 10:17a, 10/30/24
MI is hard to get a read on. I'm at court this morning and have a lot of work to catch up on but it's on the list of my updates today.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to aezmvp • 10:20a, 10/30/24
AG
aezmvp said:
MI is hard to get a read on. I'm at court this morning and have a lot of work to catch up on but it's on the list of my updates today.
Indeed it is. The Upper Peninsula is nothing like the southern part of the state. Those folks in the UP generlly want to be left alone. That includes pollsters.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to oh no • 10:30a, 10/30/24
AG
oh no said:
if what they're reporting on R turnout so far during early voting in places like New Jersey is true, it's hard not to believe some of these blue wall polls that have Trump ahead. Trump should win PA, WI, and maybe MI, imo.
again, Democrats are outvoting Republicans by hundreds of thousands of votes in NJ overall. Republicans outvoted in person earlier this week by a few thousand votes, but Democrats largely vote by mail there. NJ is not an example to point to.
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txags92
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In reply to aggiehawg • 10:32a, 10/30/24
AG
aggiehawg said:
aezmvp said:
MI is hard to get a read on. I'm at court this morning and have a lot of work to catch up on but it's on the list of my updates today.
Indeed it is. The Upper Peninsula is nothing like the southern part of the state. Those folks in the UP generlly want to be left alone. That includes pollsters.
It is just like a bunch of other states in that 2-3 large cities compete with the rest of the state to see who controls the politics. Similar to Philly and Atlanta, if the black population in Detroit is not excited about turning out for Kamala, while the rural areas are motivated, it spells bad news for Dems. The effect of antipathy by the muslims in Dearborn, Southfield, etc. towards Biden/Harris on their overall turnout will also be interesting to watch.
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AggieUSMC
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In reply to oh no • 10:54a, 10/30/24
AG
oh no said:
if what they're reporting on R turnout so far during early voting in places like New Jersey is true, it's hard not to believe some of these blue wall polls that have Trump ahead. Trump should win PA, WI, and maybe MI, imo.
Should? Yes.
Will? TBD.
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Captn_Ag05
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11:49a, 10/30/24
AG


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aggiehawg
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:51a, 10/30/24
AG
Do you trust the credibility of that CNN poll? Like at all?
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Silvertaps
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:55a, 10/30/24
AG
Harris +6 in WI, and +5 in MI?

Seems like a salmon going upstream from the rest of the polls out there.
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4stringAg
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:58a, 10/30/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:


Seems out of whack compared to other polling. Not sure how they could be tied in PA and her have these commanding leads in MI and WI that she's not had before.
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aezmvp
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In reply to aggiehawg • 11:59a, 10/30/24
Cross tabs aren't posted yet. I'm... suspicious. It looks like the Susquehanna poll, which was also odd, Harris +5 but the Senate race within less than a point. I wouldn't put much stock in it.
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Teslag
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:59a, 10/30/24
AG
I have a really hard time seeing Harris outperform Baldwin
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ttu_85
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In reply to 4stringAg • 12:00p, 10/30/24
4stringAg said:

Seems out of whack compared to other polling. Not sure how they could be tied in PA and her have these commanding leads in MI and WI that she's not had before.
Uh, its trash from CNN. Thats how.
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oh no
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12:04p, 10/30/24
AG
can't believe that Kamala +6 in Wisconsin for a second.

it was Trump by less than 1 in 2016, Biden by less than 1 in 2020 with all the mass mailed ballot shenanigans, and now after the inflation, border crisis, war proliferation, dementia cover-up, nut bar wokeness, and far fewer mail in ballots requested, we are to believe the unimpressive word salad mystery phony Kamala is going to out-perform both Hillary and Biden by that much in the Badger State? Not a chance. If anything, WI's electoral votes are decided by around 1% again.
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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to Silvertaps • 12:34p, 10/30/24
Silvertaps said:
Harris +6 in WI, and +5 in MI?

Seems like a salmon going upstream from the rest of the polls out there.


Looks like poly market is moving pretty hard based on these. Michigan is now at 50/50 and Wisconsin has moved from 60/40 to 55/45
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nortex97
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In reply to oh no • 12:35p, 10/30/24
AG
Zero chance. Closer to reality is that it is razor tight, and breaking toward Trump late with Dems underperforming in turnout:





66.5: only 2.5 to go.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 12:37p, 10/30/24
AG
Wisconsin is likely moving more as a result of this poll, which used to be considered the gold standard for a Wisconsin, but has been less accurate lately.

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infinity ag
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12:55p, 10/30/24
Trump is surging.

realclearpolling


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aggiehawg
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1:07p, 10/30/24
AG
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txags92
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In reply to aggiehawg • 1:16p, 10/30/24
AG
aggiehawg said:
That is a big sample for a 4 day period. Not sure on the cross tabs, but I like the topline #s.
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SwigAg11
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In reply to txags92 • 1:21p, 10/30/24
AG
While I agree, Quinnipiac was literally the least accurate pollster of 2020. They were off on average over 8 points. So…ya?
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txags92
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 1:22p, 10/30/24
AG
SwigAg11 said:
While I agree, Quinnipiac was literally the least accurate pollster of 2020. So…ya?
If they are inaccurate in the same direction as before, by a similar margin, I like it even more.
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