Muh Polls

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Waffledynamics
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4:41p, 10/29/24
AG
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backintexas2013
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 4:42p, 10/29/24
AG
Interesting NAACP poll? How reliable are they?
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Captn_Ag05
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4:44p, 10/29/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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4:44p, 10/29/24
AG
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ttha_aggie_09
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 4:49p, 10/29/24
AG
I just don't understand how literally every other state has seen a shift to Trump and in MN her lead has grown over the same time period. How does that make sense?
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JDUB08AG
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In reply to ttha_aggie_09 • 4:53p, 10/29/24
AG
ttha_aggie_09 said:
I just don't understand how literally every other state has seen a shift to Trump and in MN her lead has grown over the same time period. How does that make sense?


They voted Mondale
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ttha_aggie_09
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In reply to JDUB08AG • 4:56p, 10/29/24
AG
I understand MN is blue but literally every other state there has been a shrinking in her support over the last month and a half or so. For her it has grown substantially and I am curious why?
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SwigAg11
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 4:57p, 10/29/24
AG
YouGov's average error in 2020 was 5.5 points. All of the accurate polls from 2020 have PA +1-3 Trump and are having him approach moving past the MoE.
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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to ttha_aggie_09 • 5:01p, 10/29/24
ttha_aggie_09 said:
I just don't understand how literally every other state has seen a shift to Trump and in MN her lead has grown over the same time period. How does that make sense?
Other polls have shown the lead shrinking. Who knows?
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mslags97
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 5:09p, 10/29/24
AG
Waffledynamics said:


NAACP poll saying Trump has lost black support. Imagine that….

Anyone buying this as a believable poll?!!!
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1836er
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5:20p, 10/29/24
AG
The main takeaway from polls in places like NY, NJ, MN, NH, ME, VA and NM showing Trump doing better than 2016/2020 isn't that he could win some of them... it's what it likely means about how he's really doing in the battleground states.

If he's doing better in all these other states than he's ever polled before, it's highly unlikely that this larger trend won't show up in the battleground states.

It's absurd, for example, to admit he's doing better in NJ and NY, but then think that he's not also doing better in PA than 2016/2020.
Vance in '28
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aggiehawg
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In reply to 1836er • 5:32p, 10/29/24
AG
Also banking more votes towards the popular vote numbers. He received more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016.

And it looks like he will improve even more over 2020.
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Captn_Ag05
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6:11p, 10/29/24
AG
Trafalgar has the Democrat with a small lead in Ohio Senate. Really surprised by this one. Most have been counting this as a sure pick up.

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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 6:12p, 10/29/24
Ohio is weird. That race may go closer down to the wire.
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AtticusMatlock
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6:15p, 10/29/24
Another thing Vance talked with Vonn about was that a lot of Trump voters or people who fit the demographic, like blue collar workers, are far less likely to talk to pollsters and this leads to problems in accurate polling. They can always get plenty of upper middle class and college educated liberals to talk to them. Reaching those hard to reach voters is the big problem. It's not the silent Trump thing, it's more the silent demographic thing and those people happen to support Trump more than the Democrat at this point.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to AtticusMatlock • 6:29p, 10/29/24
AG
AtticusMatlock said:
Another thing Vance talked with Vonn about was that a lot of Trump voters or people who fit the demographic, like blue collar workers, are far less likely to talk to pollsters and this leads to problems in accurate polling. They can always get plenty of upper middle class and college educated liberals to talk to them. Reaching those hard to reach voters is the big problem. It's not the silent Trump thing, it's more the silent demographic thing and those people happen to support Trump more than the Democrat at this point.
Not throwing cold water on that but CNN's reident naysayer, Harry Enten, has said there hasn't been thee consecutive elections where the polling was underestimating a candidate every time. So he was saying the odds that the pollsters were missing the Trump voters was slim.

Dumb argument to me. How many times has the same candidate been in three different POTUS elections during the polling era?
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dallasiteinsa02
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7:02p, 10/29/24
Polling was way off for Nixon, Cleveland, FDR, Williams Jennings Bryan, and especially Thomas Jefferson.
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1939
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In reply to aggiehawg • 7:17p, 10/29/24
AG
Not only has there not been three in a row in who knows how long, but there has never been a candidate like Trump.
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ttha_aggie_09
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8:04p, 10/29/24
AG
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ttha_aggie_09
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8:25p, 10/29/24
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Barnyard96
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8:29p, 10/29/24
AG

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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 9:26p, 10/29/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
Trafalgar has the Democrat with a small lead in Ohio Senate. Really surprised by this one. Most have been counting this as a sure pick up.



I think Trafalgar is off on this one. Trump wins Ohio by double digits. 6% would be a huge setback for a state that has gone for him by 8% each of the last two elections
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outofstateaggie
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10:18p, 10/29/24
AG
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TexAgsSean
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In reply to outofstateaggie • 10:44p, 10/29/24
AG
outofstateaggie said:


No clue if they're correct or not but meidastouch is a leftist rag. That acyn guy only posts things that make Trump look bad.
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oh no
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12:15a, 10/30/24
AG
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RGLAG85
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In reply to TexAgsSean • 12:26a, 10/30/24
AG
TexAgsSean said:
outofstateaggie said:


No clue if they're correct or not but meidastouch is a leftist rag. That acyn guy only posts things that make Trump look bad.
They're starting their justification so it's believable.
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nortex97
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4:14a, 10/30/24
AG
Nice to see, though I am gonna go ahead and agree this is a campaign poll/outlier:




It's basically tied, imho:


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nortex97
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4:53a, 10/30/24
AG


Tight:


Since some of this data gets lost/forgotten regarding the outfits we post here:


Challenges:
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HeardAboutPerio
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In reply to outofstateaggie • 5:34a, 10/30/24
AG
Quote:
"What do we see in 2022 in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin? Well, it turns out that the average poll in those states actually underestimated Democrats by four points. It underestimated Democrats by four points. And I want to apply that to the electoral map because [if] it turns out that the polls underestimated the Democrats like they did in 2022, well Kamala Harris wins a sweep," Enten said.


Election polling could be underestimating Kamala Harris, Democrats in key states, CNN data reporter warns https://www.foxnews.com/media/election-polling-could-underestimating-kamala-harris-democrats-key-states-cnn-data-reporter-warns

So here's another one saying the same thing.
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ts5641
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In reply to HeardAboutPerio • 5:36a, 10/30/24
I remember almost every poll since 2016 undercounting Republicans not dems. Not sure I buy that at all.
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HeardAboutPerio
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In reply to ts5641 • 5:39a, 10/30/24
AG
I have no clue, but I just pray it's a talking point
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JDUB08AG
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5:49a, 10/30/24
AG
Trump wasn't on the ballot in 2022. After underpolling trump on 2016 and 2020, suddenly they are over polling him by 3-4 points? Doesn't make any sense.

Also what data points are making the dems confident? I don't understand that at all.
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nortex97
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6:00a, 10/30/24
AG
NC analysis/model based on registration/EV forecast. I don't consider this just 'early voting' so putting it here:



Polls underestimating Dem Kamala voters in battleground states broadly I think is pretty absurd, but their side is desperate to get/keep their base somehow faithful to prevent a turnout collapse on Election Day. Jon Ralston has a post/update last night similarly, trying to say there's still time for Dems to rally. It really is just hope-casting.
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mslags97
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6:11a, 10/30/24
AG
2022 was supposed to and should have been the red wave. Trump wasn't on the ballot, but his backed candidates did horrible, and the Dems were undervalued in those polls leading up to 2022.

Now, all of that being said, it is a reasons for concern, but I don't think things are at all the same now as they were 2 years ago. The craptastic biden/harris years have continued to spiral downward in amazing fashion. Trump has been different as far as a candidate this time as well. He still does not pull his punches, but he is aggressive and doesn't back down.
He has pushed an actual plan and agenda much more this time than ever before. And, again, the border, inflation, and the economy were destroyed by the harris/biden administration. I remember the momentum and fervor the MAGA movement had in 2016 and 2020. It is nothing like this. The Republican Party is a united party more so than any time since the great communicator, Ronald Reagan. I don't think there is any way to account for the diversity of support Trump now has.

I was at the MSG Rally on Sunday. I was surrounded by minorities. Cubans. Asians. Jewish (even a family from Israel that came just for the rally; they told me 80% of Israel supports Trump. And that's because 20% of Israel's population are Arabs). Several black families. Not just black adults, but families. A couple of typical New Yorkers. And several other Hispanics. In my section, whites were the minority. I'm not exaggerating. It was pretty incredible. The rally itself didn't get the actual coverage it probably deserved. There were 4 square blocks basically shud down around MSG/Penn Ststion, and that area was full of Trump supporters. Screens outside and the speeches were aired in that area. There were trucks driving around most of Manhattan with MAGA flags blaring the rally from speakers in the back of trucks. And this had to be planned because it is so rare to see trucks in Manhattan. My wife and daughter didn't go to the rally and actually explored NYC while I was there. They saw a couple. There was very little of any resistance from harris supporters. No arguments. A very few minor supporters trying to be heard, but I'm literally talking about dozens compared to thousands…. I know he isn't going to even make NY interesting as far as turning it red, but I firmly believe this kind of fervor in a place as blue as NYC really speaks to what we are seeing happen across the entire country.

People are motivated to vote. Look at the first time voter in Fla who had a Trump shirt on and had to take it off to vote in her bra. These voters can't be polled or counted or expected. And the left is so blind with hate and their superiority complex that they can't see what is happening right in front of them. Fetterman may be the only sane dem saying it out loud when he was talking about how real this Trump movement is.

All of that with this background: until last week, I was feeling like Trump's chances to win were very slim. Even with the positive movement. But I'm believing now. I could be totally wrong, but I don't think the pollsters are even close. I think it's a blowout, and I'm praying we know early starting with VA and NH and ending with a NM surprise. And I'm really pulling for my favorite candidate of all running right now, Hung Cao. Dude is a stud!!
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Gaeilge
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In reply to nortex97 • 6:32a, 10/30/24
Guess that explains why they've pulled money out of NC ads to put elsewhere
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