Muh Polls

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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Drahknor03 • 12:55p, 10/29/24
AG
Drahknor03 said:
Not AZ, the McCainiacs. They have about 10% of the AZ vote locked up. If the McCain family says Gallego instead of Lake, that's how they are going to vote.
Yet most of them are voting Trump? Really need to stop with the McCain boogey man stuff and realize Lake isn't a great candidate. No matter how much some on this board may like her, she has a real problem breaking through with voters that decide elections. And a good number of them are supporting Trump.
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Quo Vadis?
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12:57p, 10/29/24
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aggiehawg
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1:02p, 10/29/24
AG
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Drahknor03
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 1:04p, 10/29/24
AG
I didn't say Lake was a good candidate. I said the McCain camp controls about 10% of the AZ vote. They aren't being vocal against Trump, but they are being vocal against Lake. She didn't kiss the ring in 2022 and lost. She TRIED to kiss the ring in 2024, and was rebuffed. AZ is a strange place. You can ignore me all you want, but it is, what it is.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 1:04p, 10/29/24
AG
So what is the backstory with that pollster?
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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to aggiehawg • 1:07p, 10/29/24
aggiehawg said:


It's amazing how different Latinos in Nevada and Arizona can be. They're right next to each other. I know that they've both lived in the same direction, but the degree is incredible.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 1:08p, 10/29/24
AG
I choose to believe this.
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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to aggiehawg • 1:09p, 10/29/24
aggiehawg said:
So what is the backstory with that pollster?


They're a real pollster, they were ranked as a top 10 outfit by 538.

Here is a link to the poll
https://dataorbital.com/2024/10/new-data-orbital-arizona-2024-general-election-statewide-poll/
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Tramp96
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 1:09p, 10/29/24
Quo Vadis? said:
aggiehawg said:


It's amazing how different Latinos in Nevada and Arizona can be. They're right next to each other. I know that they've both lived in the same direction, but the degree is incredible.
I think you can thank the Phoenix metro area for this. Lots of California transplants, way more than what you have in Nevada.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to aggiehawg • 1:11p, 10/29/24
AG
aggiehawg said:
So what is the backstory with that pollster?


They were one of the more accurate pollsters in 2020 and 2022 and have a focus on Arizona. Their final AZ poll in 2020 was Biden plus .8. Almost spot on with final results.

This would actually be in line with what we are seeing from early voting so far.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 1:11p, 10/29/24
AG
Thanks!
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Quo Vadis?
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1:14p, 10/29/24
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will25u
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In reply to TexAgsSean • 1:48p, 10/29/24
TexAgsSean said:
Does anyone know why Arizona doesn't seem to like Kari Lake?

I *THINK* that if Trump wins AZ by ~5% he should pull Lake over the line with him. Closer? Probably not.

The squishy Republicans in AZ don't like Trump surrogates.
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93MarineHorn
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In reply to will25u • 1:54p, 10/29/24
will25u said:
TexAgsSean said:
Does anyone know why Arizona doesn't seem to like Kari Lake?

I *THINK* that if Trump wins AZ by ~5% he should pull Lake over the line with him. Closer? Probably not.

The squishy Republicans in AZ don't like Trump surrogates.
It may be unfair or sexist, but she's got an "angry woman" vibe. I'd definitely vote for her over any Dem, but moderates care about things like that.
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Quo Vadis?
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2:15p, 10/29/24
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Captn_Ag05
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2:18p, 10/29/24
AG
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Tramp96
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 2:19p, 10/29/24
Captn_Ag05 said:

I still don't understand how NC can ever be blue.

I really don't understand it now after hurricane Helene.
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Gaeilge
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 2:20p, 10/29/24
The NC thing is odd to me since it seems the dems may have just recently pulled their funding. I wonder if it may be skewed due to people affected by the storm not being counted much in the polling because they're not currently responding.
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Captn_Ag05
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2:25p, 10/29/24
AG
NC is one of the harder states to poll traditionally. I can only imagine the storm has made it more difficult.
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FireAg
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In reply to Tramp96 • 2:25p, 10/29/24
AG
Harris has pulled her ads there…NC likely going red…
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Captn_Ag05
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2:35p, 10/29/24
AG
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1836er
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 2:46p, 10/29/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
NC is one of the harder states to poll traditionally. I can only imagine the storm has made it more difficult.
This, and one of the reasons its harder to poll is because NC is undergoing a shift similar to where FL was a few years ago.

Older white Republicans (less MAGA, more "country club" types) are dying off and being replaced by the positive net migration of conservative leaning whites from other states (more MAGA, less "country club" types) amongst the state's Republican electorate; meaning the white vote in NC overall, and the Republican white voters in NC more specifically, is/are more reliably conservative/Republican than even 5-10 years ago.

Because many of the pollsters, OTH, especially the lazy/cheap ones, include too many of the easier to poll (less MAGA, more "country club") Republicans in their polls, they tend to understate GOP support.

The recent general rule of thumb for NC is that it polls slightly to the left of GA, but votes slightly to the right of GA (which isn't trending as much in the GOP's direction as FL and NC are due to the growth of the Atlanta metro area compared to the rest of the state).
Vance in '28
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Captn_Ag05
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3:06p, 10/29/24
AG
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backintexas2013
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 3:08p, 10/29/24
AG
How reliable is that pollster. That would be a beating
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3:30p, 10/29/24
AG
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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to backintexas2013 • 3:35p, 10/29/24
backintexas2013 said:
How reliable is that pollster. That would be a beating
AtlasIntel was the most accurate pollster in 2020.
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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3:35p, 10/29/24
Ds would need to half the early voting deficit from where it is right now to get anywhere close to Trump plus 5 and Cruz plus 2.

Texas is extremely reliable that where EV ends up, so does the election within a point of it. Currently Rs are up 10 points and today isn't in yet.
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AtticusMatlock
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3:40p, 10/29/24
I accidentally posted this on the early voting thread the other day, but Vance was on Theo Vonn talking about poll reliability and said something I thought was interesting.

Most of these external polls will spend around $10k-15k on a poll. 20 years ago 1 in 10 people would respond to requests and the polls could be conducted quickly and rather inexpensively with a good sample of voters.

In 2024 they are seeing less than 1 in 30 people responding to poll requests. The time consuming nature of this and finding the right demographic mix among all of those people is very difficult and expensive. A lot of these pollsters aren't throwing the kind of money around to get a good sample of voters.

The internal poll companies will spend $75k or more to find the right demographic mix.
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MagnumLoad
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3:43p, 10/29/24
Every voter for Trump in Texas will vote for Cruz also. So Trump +5 and Cruz +2 is absurd.
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SwigAg11
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In reply to AtticusMatlock • 3:45p, 10/29/24
AG
AtticusMatlock said:
backintexas2013 said:
How reliable is that pollster. That would be a beating
AtlasIntel was the most accurate pollster in 2020.

Their average error was 1.94 across all states. Pretty darn accurate for public polling.
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Belton Ag
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3:52p, 10/29/24
AG
Would be quite something if Trump surpassed the 50% mark nationally. I think the consensus is that his ceiling is around 48%. Would definitely go down as the biggest political comeback of my lifetime and certainly one of the tops in American history.
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4stringAg
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 3:53p, 10/29/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Not heard of this poll but I am having a tough time believing any poll showing Kamala more than +1 in a battleground state. NV at +4 based on what is known from early voting seems absurd.
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the most cool guy
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 4:02p, 10/29/24
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Ags_2002
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In reply to FireAg • 4:03p, 10/29/24
AG
That would be big news. Is this confirmed?
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FireAg
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In reply to Ags_2002 • 4:36p, 10/29/24
AG
Ags_2002 said:
That would be big news. Is this confirmed?


https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/10/29/democrat-kamala-harris-surrenders-north-carolina-withdraws-nearly-2-million-planned-ad-spend-state/amp/
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