Muh Polls

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AggieUSMC
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In reply to 4stringAg • 9:39a, 10/28/24
AG
4stringAg said:
At what point do the pollsters put in their final polls? A week out now from election day with a lot of early voting already in the hopper.
Some already have.
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Captn_Ag05
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9:41a, 10/28/24
AG
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nortex97
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9:43a, 10/28/24
AG
Trends: my take on this one is that this portends she will not win independents late.
Quote:
And you can see right here, neither one of them has a greater positive than negative; they're both not that popular. But Trump, you can see the gap here, 42 positive, 48 negative. He is six points underwater on this question. Harris: 39 positive, 49 negative. She's 10 points negative on this question.

And the significance here is the trajectory of the Harris campaign on this sort of feelings thermometer. When she first got in the race, when she first entered, she was, you know, basically in the same ballpark as Trump on positive and negative.

After about six weeks as a candidate, she had actually, in our poll, moved above water on this question. A couple of weeks ago, we were polling this, and she had a higher positive than negative and had established an advantage. But now, our own NBC poll a couple weeks ago and now this CNBC poll both find that the advantage she seemed to have established here, you know, say back in September on this question, is gone. She's back in that underwater territory with Trump again.
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FrioAg 00
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10:13a, 10/28/24
AG
Another nice jump for Trump on Bovada this morning…

Odds to win election, -200 (implied 67% probability)
Odds to win popular vote, +130

AZ -310
GA -300
NC -275
NV -180
PA -160
Wisc -145
Mich -125


Minn +400, NH +400, VA +425, NM +650


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98Ag99Grad
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In reply to nortex97 • 10:46a, 10/28/24
AG
is that the first poll to show he's leading NH?
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SwigAg11
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In reply to 98Ag99Grad • 10:48a, 10/28/24
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98Ag99Grad said:
is that the first poll to show he's leading NH?

I think there's been 2-3 showing Trump leading in NH and another that's a tie.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to 98Ag99Grad • 10:51a, 10/28/24
AG
98Ag99Grad said:
is that the first poll to show he's leading NH?
He was edging out Biden when he was still in the race, IIRC. NH is difficult to poll though. So the anecdotal stories of customers in diners provides more of a sense of the overall mood there. There's a reason Biden was sent to NH last week.

The other thing about NH is the Boston media market. It's expensive to run a lot of ads there.
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aggiehawg
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11:14a, 10/28/24
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Quote:
Old and busted: Can Kamala Harris win without Pennsylvania? New hotness: Can she win without Michigan?

We may be about to find out, according to the very latest poll to emerge out of the Wolverine State, as well as some other interesting data, both direct and indirect. Insider Advantage shows Donald Trump with a one-point edge over Harris in a poll conducted over the weekend. Trump leads 48/47 among 800 likely voters, and the same poll shows the open US Senate seat in a dead heat.
Quote:
Right now, the pollster has yet to produce any analysis of their data -- and their website is having trouble handling traffic, too. However, this lines up with the trending we have seen in RCP's aggregation for Michigan in the last couple of weeks. The last iterations of Bloomberg and Quinnipiac polls showed Harris leading by three and four points respectively, but six other polls in October show Trump ahead (including an earlier Quinnipiac iteration at Trump +4) and two others tied. The trends clearly seem to favor Trump, especially if one looks at late September as a starting point, when Trump led in half of the polls in the final week of that month.
Via Hot Air.
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Captn_Ag05
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11:39a, 10/28/24
AG
Laughable Crosstabs

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txags92
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:46a, 10/28/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Laughable Crosstabs

Men: 49-48% Harris +1? What planet is that reality from?
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Captn_Ag05
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11:52a, 10/28/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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11:53a, 10/28/24
AG
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LMCane
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12:14p, 10/28/24
won't feel good until we get a 4 point lead in every battleground state!

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Captn_Ag05
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12:53p, 10/28/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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12:54p, 10/28/24
AG
Rasmussen confirming that the Texas senate race is close, but Cruz has a few point led.

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Captn_Ag05
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12:55p, 10/28/24
AG
Rasmussen has Trump up 6 in presidential race in Texas. In line with his margin from 2020.


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SwigAg11
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 12:57p, 10/28/24
AG
SwigAg11 said:
98Ag99Grad said:
is that the first poll to show he's leading NH?

I think there's been 2-3 showing Trump leading in NH and another that's a tie.

Quoting my post from earlier to state that none of these recent NH polls showing a tie or Trump in the lead are being used with RCP. I guess that helps to make NH a real sleeper state for Trump.
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LMCane
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1:17p, 10/28/24
no idea how accurate this could be - anyone know how reliable this newspaper is?

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LMCane
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 1:18p, 10/28/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
Rasmussen confirming that the Texas senate race is close, but Cruz has a few point led.

yeah but it's never good for an incumbent to be below 50~

amazing how Cruz is always such a weak general election candidate
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LMCane
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 1:20p, 10/28/24
Nate Silver was claiming he would bet some poster his entire mortgage that Trump would not win by 8 in Florida!

I hope that guy took the bet!
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TheWoodlandsTxAg
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 1:42p, 10/28/24
Activote has Cruz up 5 this morning: 52.4 to 47.6 (LV)

NY Times Siena has Cruz up by 4 this morning: 50-46 (LV)

The last poll by UT Texas Politics Project/YouGov (the gold standard Texas poll) has Cruz up by 7.

Cruz is being outspent by over a 100 million dollars which has come mainly from Soros and Soros groups.

Cruz will have the largest spending deficit in a Senate race in US history when this is over.
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Captn_Ag05
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1:43p, 10/28/24
AG
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Gaeilge
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In reply to TheWoodlandsTxAg • 1:44p, 10/28/24
Spending differential. Not deficit.
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aggiehawg
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2:43p, 10/28/24
AG
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ttha_aggie_09
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In reply to aggiehawg • 2:46p, 10/28/24
AG
This is not surprising but must be terrible news for the Democrats. I think the right is very energetic to vote this election and we're already seeing that in the early voting numbers.
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aggiehawg
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3:37p, 10/28/24
AG
From today. Looking pretty Trumpy. He discusses the possibility of Trump taking some of the NYC boroughs and what that means.

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Captn_Ag05
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4:04p, 10/28/24
AG
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1836er
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 4:12p, 10/28/24
AG
You can tell right off the bat that their Republican sample is not representative... that looks like one of those garbage McSally minus 18 polls.
Vance in '28
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aggiehawg
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4:13p, 10/28/24
AG
For those who want to hear it from this morning.

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aggiehawg
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4:24p, 10/28/24
AG
On the Baris stream I posted above, he's saying in AZ it is R+7. In 2016 it was R+4 and Trmp won the state. In 2020, it was R+3 and he (supposedly) lost.

So R+7 is looking pretty good right now.
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aggiehawg
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5:10p, 10/28/24
AG
Is this the current 538 guy?

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Captn_Ag05
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6:14p, 10/28/24
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FireAg
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 6:47p, 10/28/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:

This feels like an outlier, no?
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SwigAg11
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In reply to aggiehawg • 10:40p, 10/28/24
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aggiehawg said:


In that other video you posted, Baris and Barnes were agreeing with the enthusiasm gap, but then openly mocking him on the question of which candidate did less enthusiasm help. Conclusions were that low enthusiasm overwhelmingly benefits Trump based on which demographics appear to be sitting out this election per polling/EV.
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nortex97
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5:04a, 10/29/24
AG
One week to go and he's up to 66:





Immigration is absolutely crushing the communists:


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