Muh Polls

780,789 Views | 5732 Replies | Last: 16 hrs ago by Silvertaps
LMCane
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 2:40p, 10/26/24
Philip J Fry said:
Trump now with the popular vote lead. Haven't seen a republican do that in a long time.


only Bush in 2004 won the popular vote

other than that it would be 27 years ago since his father in 1988.

so one time in nearly 30 years
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nortex97
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3:14p, 10/26/24
AG


Election Day polling/voting is the one thing I am still concerned about as I hadn't seen anything on this yet.

The 'hope' (for the communists) has been that Harris is going to do better in the rust belt because it's less diverse (code for fewer blacks proportionally vs. GA/NC) while doing better with whites vs. Biden, which is not really supported by the polling data.





Good stuff.
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SwigAg11
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8:39p, 10/26/24
AG


And the longer video.



Edit: I did not realize this was from 10 days ago when I posted it. Sorry.
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TAMUallen
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3:18a, 10/27/24
AG
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nortex97
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5:50a, 10/27/24
AG
GOP has moved ahead for the first time in months in the generic ballot:



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TheBonifaceOption
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7:39a, 10/27/24
Holy money

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nortex97
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In reply to TheBonifaceOption • 7:47a, 10/27/24
AG
ABC polls have been utter garbage, imho. Maybe they have David Muir handling them.



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SwigAg11
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9:17a, 10/27/24
AG
Quinnipiac was literally the worst pollster of 2020, so don't know what to make of this WI senate poll.

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Captn_Ag05
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9:34a, 10/27/24
AG
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1836er
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10:32a, 10/27/24
AG
Having maintained their Harris +2-5 polls for as long as they could it looks like we're at the stage of the race when the media/university polls herd to Rasmussen at the last minute in order to maintain the illusion of credibility.

About the only recognizable poll still show anything worse for Trump than a statistical tie in the national popular vote (which is very, very, very likely to be a Trump victory in the Electoral College) is IPSOS, and even some of the ones that use IPSOS panels are herding.
Vance in '28
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TheBonifaceOption
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10:32a, 10/27/24
Trump has doubled support in Cali's under 30s

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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to TheBonifaceOption • 10:41a, 10/27/24
AG
The really under 30, this is their k-12 mock election.
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B-1 83
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10:50a, 10/27/24
AG
What we need is the Weekly Reader poll……
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
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nortex97
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In reply to TheBonifaceOption • 1:48p, 10/27/24
AG
Not an attack at you at all, but to explain (my view that) the ABC polls being trash just wanted to provide this context/explanation:

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Prosperdick
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In reply to nortex97 • 2:59p, 10/27/24
AG
nortex97 said:
Not an attack at you at all, but to explain (my view that) the ABC polls being trash just wanted to provide this context/explanation:

I was just about to post this...there's good ol' Ipsos but I won't share my personal experience with them because apparently that's not relevant and my posts get deleted.

I will share this though:
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TheWoodlandsTxAg
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In reply to nortex97 • 3:03p, 10/27/24
Baris has explained on his show on the Peoples Pundit Youtube channel that the ABC poll has become crap recently because of this.
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AtticusMatlock
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4:30p, 10/27/24
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SwigAg11
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In reply to AtticusMatlock • 4:31p, 10/27/24
AG
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aggiehawg
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 4:34p, 10/27/24
AG
Appears to me that Trump is helping Kari Lake's numbers?
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SwigAg11
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In reply to aggiehawg • 4:36p, 10/27/24
AG
aggiehawg said:
Appears to me that Trump is helping Kari Lake's numbers?

I have no idea since that poll has her 4 points down.
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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to aggiehawg • 4:53p, 10/27/24
Helping make it closer, but the people of Arizona just plain don't like her. It is what it is.
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TheWoodlandsTxAg
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7:28p, 10/27/24
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SwigAg11
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In reply to TheWoodlandsTxAg • 7:34p, 10/27/24
AG
He called that Trump would do a rally in NM like a week ago or so.

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aezmvp
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In reply to aggiehawg • 7:35p, 10/27/24
Turnout will be everything. If Trump wins AZ by 5 she gets in by a hair. Less... not likely imo. Under 3% for Trump she loses. I think it's 50/50 for her now but that could change based on how much ED vote is canibalized AND how good the low pro voter turnout is on ED.
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TAMUallen
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In reply to TheWoodlandsTxAg • 7:36p, 10/27/24
AG
TheWoodlandsTxAg said:


I can not believe that. I'd like to but I need to not get too excited.
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Captn_Ag05
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8:11p, 10/27/24
AG


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SwigAg11
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 9:04p, 10/27/24
AG
For a little more context, Insider Advantage was one of the top 4 most accurate pollsters in 2020.
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AtticusMatlock
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9:43p, 10/27/24
To answer the question asked about split voters in Lake v Trump, I will try to find the raw data to see difference in splits, but I strongly suspect the male vote is not going as strong with Lake.
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TAMUallen
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1:46a, 10/28/24
AG




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nortex97
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5:46a, 10/28/24
AG







This feels pretty good right now. Good morning everyone.
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Quo Vadis?
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5:50a, 10/28/24


Sorry Dems you had your shot, the tide is coming back in
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nortex97
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6:57a, 10/28/24
AG
Finally one showing Nebraskans waking up:
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aggiehawg
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9:31a, 10/28/24
AG


Like I said. She has no political instincts.
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4stringAg
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9:36a, 10/28/24
AG
At what point do the pollsters put in their final polls? A week out now from election day with a lot of early voting already in the hopper.
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C@LAg
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In reply to 4stringAg • 9:37a, 10/28/24
4stringAg said:
At what point do the pollsters put in their final polls? A week out now from election day with a lot of early voting already in the hopper.
2 days after, while votes are still being counted.
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