Muh Polls

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Prosperdick
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In reply to aggiehawg • 6:33p, 10/21/24
AG
aggiehawg said:
Mark Halperin is reporting now that Cook Politcal Report has changed PA Senate race from leans Dem to toss-up.
Which makes me question any polls showing Kamala leading Trump in that state.
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oh no
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In reply to will25u • 6:33p, 10/21/24
AG
John James is great. Hope that poll is accurate. Assume Detroit News poll is typically pretty heavily tilted for the dems (?)
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JDUB08AG
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7:02p, 10/21/24
AG
30 point spread on polymarket as of right now. 65-35
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jokershady
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7:11p, 10/21/24
AG
Just want to say I appreciate all the constant info being put out here. I pretty much don't watch any television at all minus some re-runs of shows I like….so this info has been huge to keep track of and I wouldn't know much of any of this without other Texags posters constantly sharing data and insights.

Thank you!
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will25u
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7:25p, 10/21/24
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to will25u • 10:37p, 10/21/24

[You are out of warnings for derails -- Staff]
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Edited by Staff
SpreadsheetAg
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10:47p, 10/21/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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11:25p, 10/21/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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11:25p, 10/21/24
AG
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Quo Vadis?
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4:51a, 10/22/24


I like the Trump +4 but 8% still undecided right now is nuts
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nortex97
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5:03a, 10/22/24
AG
Independents are definitely breaking for Trump:


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In reply to jokershady • 5:07a, 10/22/24
jokershady said:
Just want to say I appreciate all the constant info being put out here. I pretty much don't watch any television at all minus some re-runs of shows I like….so this info has been huge to keep track of and I wouldn't know much of any of this without other Texags posters constantly sharing data and insights.

Thank you!


I think after the election we need to buy staff a steak dinner for their 9,000 gentle nudges back on topic
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Quo Vadis?
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5:16a, 10/22/24


Nothing exciting but Trump outperforming 2020 in NY by 4%
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Marvin
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7:58a, 10/22/24
AG

This comment is from today's TIPP Insights article on the state of the race.
Quote:

The 2024 race is much tighter than in 2016 and 2020. Trump has an advantage right now since he has a history of underperformance in polls due to silent voters in many battleground states.

My questions are:
1. Have pollsters accounted for Trump's silent voters to the extent that any bump (or a portion) is already baked into the published numbers?
2. Is the silent voter total considerably smaller this cycle because of diminished fear of being cancelled or ostracized for publicly supporting Trump?

Either of these could overstate the numbers normally seen with Trump polls. I'm not saying they are... just curious whether anyone has read recent info on this.




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nortex97
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In reply to Marvin • 8:24a, 10/22/24
AG
The pollsters are not using a calculation/correction factor to adjust for 'shy Trump' voters. And Trump's ability to close in the last weeks of elections he is in is unprecedented, so pollsters can't take that into account either. "Recall" polling (there are many permutations of that) to balance the poll based on demographics/voter choices/turnout in 2020 is the best they can do but that itself has drawbacks.

The biggest challenge I think most public pollsters have though is getting the wrong 'mix' of college educated vs. blue collar/HS graduates. College educated are much more likely to answer a text/call etc. This is why many polls over-sample them and wind up skewing blue, again, my two cents from watching some of this unfold.

Halperin's morning chat is always good, currently discussing pro-life/choice in polls:


I think this one is a bit over-exuberant but the GOP is doing great with hispanics/black males in particular this cycle;

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dreyOO
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In reply to nortex97 • 8:48a, 10/22/24
nortex97 said:
The pollsters are not using a calculation/correction factor to adjust for 'shy Trump' voters. And Trump's
When we look back at this election, I think this will be the question on poll accuracy. Every flip of a "never Trumper" or traditional Dem that finally sees the light doesn't necessarily want to announce it. Too much pride. Too embarrassing. Whatever.

But it'll be interesting to see if a lot of the early voting Ds are actually flips.
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Captn_Ag05
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8:54a, 10/22/24
AG
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4stringAg
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9:02a, 10/22/24
AG
The Dems must think there are a lot of disgruntled Republicans (read: "shy Harris") to woo otherwise why put Liz Cheney out there with her? Wonder if the polls are missing a contingent of shy Harris voters like this?
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1836er
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9:10a, 10/22/24
AG
Shy Trump voters don't really exist anymore.

Bad/corrupt pollsters are just really bad at polling the demographics Trump does really well with.
Vance in '28
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jokershady
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In reply to 1836er • 9:14a, 10/22/24
AG
Not necessarily true. With regards to discussing in public or at the work place I let things fly a little more than maybe I did 4 or 8 years ago…..but regarding polls I still never answer anything just cause I'm always concerned about a scam or just don't want to deal with bs…..

So as far as polls are concerned I'd say it's still definitely a thing unless a slew of republicans all decided to answer polls now…..
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Waffledynamics
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9:17a, 10/22/24
AG
I just checked RCP about 30 minutes ago. The aggregate showed Harris up nationally by 0.8%, with help from a Morning Consult +4 and Reuters/Ipsos +3. Trump is up narrowly in every single swing state.
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LMCane
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9:19a, 10/22/24
better pray these guys from JL Partners are not completely incompetent!

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LMCane
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9:36a, 10/22/24
if McCormick wins then Trump wins

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rathAG05
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In reply to LMCane • 9:42a, 10/22/24
AG
No doubt. That would be massive. Hasn't he been trailing by 5+ the past couple of months?
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Hungry Ojos
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In reply to rathAG05 • 9:44a, 10/22/24
He has been. So is this the product of just great ground work in getting him ahead, or were the polls just embarrassingly wrong this entire time? Maybe even intentionally wrong?
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rathAG05
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In reply to Hungry Ojos • 9:45a, 10/22/24
AG
I mean, we are seeing clear momentum behind Trump, so I think it's logical to see the same for him in PA.
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jr15aggie
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10:12a, 10/22/24
AG
Those polling numbers above show a map that is identical to 2016 except this time Trump also wins Nevada. The wild part being that many of these polls predicted Hillary to win by even bigger margins.

Assuming it plays out like this on election night, it's going to be really interesting to see the margin of victory. Really curious to see if the polls are still underestimate Trump. If the poll above has Trump +2.6 in PA, could he realistically be +5 or more come election night? Doesn't seem probable, but it would certainly be entertaining to watch.



EDIT: And if Trump really does take some of these swing states by +3-5... then yeah, those close Senate races start going red too.
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FrioAg 00
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10:18a, 10/22/24
AG
Bovada was flat for 5 days after a strong Trump trend, but today odds climbed even more for Trump.

Currently Trump -175, Harris +150

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aggiehawg
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In reply to Hungry Ojos • 10:18a, 10/22/24
AG
Hungry Ojos said:
He has been. So is this the product of just great ground work in getting him ahead, or were the polls just embarrassingly wrong this entire time? Maybe even intentionally wrong?
It all starts with registrations. Scott Pressler and others have been doing great work geting new people to register. And Republicans have a very robust ground game to get them to the polls. We are seeing that in the EV numbers. (Although their EV procedures are still kind of quirky as not every PA county starts EV at the same time, as I understand it.)
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Canyon Lake Agbu94
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In reply to aggiehawg • 10:20a, 10/22/24
aggiehawg said:
Hungry Ojos said:
He has been. So is this the product of just great ground work in getting him ahead, or were the polls just embarrassingly wrong this entire time? Maybe even intentionally wrong?
It all starts with registrations. Scott Pressler and others have been doing great work geting new people to register. And Republicans have a very robust ground game to get them to the polls. We are seeing that in the EV numbers. (Although their EV procedures are still kind of quirky as not every PA county starts EV at the same time, as I understand it.)
I hope that Scott Pressler gets all of the recognition that he deserves.
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LMCane
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10:39a, 10/22/24
Fox Polls have been pretty anti-Trump the last year

let's hope they can be somewhat accurate. obviously if this is the case Kamala loses hugely

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LMCane
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In reply to rathAG05 • 10:42a, 10/22/24
rathAG05 said:
No doubt. That would be massive. Hasn't he been trailing by 5+ the past couple of months?
McCormick was down by 30 points at the beginning of the race, then 20 points, then 10

I think he is now tied or ahead in the last two polls to drop.

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will25u
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10:58a, 10/22/24
PA is going to be CLOSE. Probably within 1-2 points either way. Here is how registrations have been going in PA.

2008 - DEM + 1,236,467
2012 - DEM + 1,135,173(-101,294)
2016 - DEM + 916,274(-218,899)
2020 - DEM + 685,818(-230,456)
2024 - DEM + 297,824(-387,994)

PA is getting redder, but if someone is voting for Trump in PA they need to get out and VOTE.

And everyone else no matter where you live...

VOTE VOTE VOTE!

FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT!
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HeardAboutPerio
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11:02a, 10/22/24
AG
Fox News Power Rankings: Voter outreach, ballot efficiency and a little Housekeeping https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-power-rankings-voter-outreach-ballot-efficiency-little-housekeeping

My take away from this is "Trump has an inefficient lead overall but not in swing states"

This is worrisome if true. I hope the positivity throughout the thread is accurate. For me, this is gonna be a squeaker.


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agsalaska
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In reply to HeardAboutPerio • 11:06a, 10/22/24
AG
Wouldn't put much into FoxNews polling or really any singular poll in 2024. It's all about the aggregation of polls now.
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.



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