Muh Polls

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ttha_aggie_09
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In reply to will25u • 10:07p, 10/20/24
AG
Pretty incredible to see PA polling +2 or +3 on quite a few polls now. This momentum feels pretty dang strong right now and not sure much can be done to slow him down.
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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10:19p, 10/20/24
Trump just got a standing ovation and USA chant from a sold out Steelers crowd
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will25u
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4:40a, 10/21/24
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ts5641
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In reply to will25u • 5:22a, 10/21/24
will25u said:
Wow, what DeSantis has done with that state is amazing! And even more amazing, they'll count all their votes on election night.
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nortex97
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5:31a, 10/21/24
AG
Trump +10 and Scott only +3 again shows the massive support for the former which is typical vs. senate candidates people are just less excited about, imho. (This shows as well why Trump was 100 percent the right candidate out of the primary.)


Bracing for the data impact:


His newsletter listing 24 reasons Trump could win starts with the EC being biased 2 points in the GOP's favor, net, vs. NPV, supporting the point I poorly cited yesterday am. As those of us who are Texans head to the voting booths starting this am:

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Captn_Ag05
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7:37a, 10/21/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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7:41a, 10/21/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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7:41a, 10/21/24
AG
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mslags97
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 7:48a, 10/21/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:


This sure seems to be a massive outlier…..
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nortex97
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In reply to mslags97 • 8:08a, 10/21/24
AG
Only Quinnipiac, CNN, and Redfield really rival ABC/WaPo for terrible public polling.


I really don't pay attention to those 4. This is the David Muir of pollsters.



Exciting to see Moreno could really pull it off:


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Stat Monitor Repairman
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11:27a, 10/21/24


They've pulled the trigger on "it's a statistical dead heat."
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Central Committee
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In reply to mslags97 • 11:35a, 10/21/24
AG
Well, it is generated by the comrades at the Washington Communist Post.

They have to support their team.
We may not always get what we want. We may not always get what we need. Just so we don't get what we deserve.
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BadMoonRisin
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11:40a, 10/21/24
AG
This has been an interesting thread to follow but I still have no clue what any of it means. Still seems like Trump has some momentum, though
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BTKAG97
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In reply to mslags97 • 11:40a, 10/21/24
AG
mslags97 said:
Captn_Ag05 said:


This sure seems to be a massive outlier…..
WaPo usually is.
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Captn_Ag05
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12:01p, 10/21/24
AG
Their polling has been very unfavorable to Trump all cycle, so this is a big improvement.

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Captn_Ag05
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12:04p, 10/21/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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12:05p, 10/21/24
AG
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Quo Vadis?
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12:51p, 10/21/24
Trump posts a +25 in polymarket for the first time I believe


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Barnyard96
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1:10p, 10/21/24
AG

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aginlakeway
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 1:21p, 10/21/24
AG
Barnyard96 said:



This seems like good news for Trump.
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
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jr15aggie
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1:59p, 10/21/24
AG
These polls looked very good for Trump a few weeks ago... And they've only shifted more right since then.
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1836er
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In reply to mslags97 • 2:20p, 10/21/24
AG
mslags97 said:
Captn_Ag05 said:


This sure seems to be a massive outlier…..
Yes this is a garbage poll.

1) This poll is 2-4 weeks old; the interviews done between September 30-October 15. If it reflected reality, which is doesn't for other reasons as well, it reflects the reality of 2-4 weeks ago. To release this now is irresponsible. At best, in the polling industry this poll = what is called "stale data."

2) When divided amongst the 7 states that comprise it, none of these states meets the minimum threshold for a legitimate sample size, especially PA and GA.

3) And this might be the worst part of all, it's not a random sample. About 25% of their sample are targeted "soft voters" they polled back in the early spring... that they intentionally went back to (Hmm, why would they do that?).

4) They dumped it on Monday (rather than the end of the week) to avoid the scrutiny of the weekend shows.

The only logical explanation for this fake "poll" is that they went into the recent past and not-so-recent past looking for Harris friendly voters, and they're trying to pass this off as a current poll for narrative driving purposes.
Vance in '28
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1836er
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In reply to 1836er • 2:25p, 10/21/24
AG
... and to add to my previous post, the false narrative the ABC/Washington Post is driving isn't even that favorable for Harris... it gives the illusion that the race is (or still is, if it ever was) a tossup.
Vance in '28
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Captn_Ag05
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2:47p, 10/21/24
AG
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aginlakeway
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 2:52p, 10/21/24
AG
Wow.
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
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will25u
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2:57p, 10/21/24
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vmiaptetr
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4:36p, 10/21/24
AG
[Reminder to the board: this thread is for posters sharing, discussing, and trying to understand polls. It's not for a discussion on voter fraud, individual opinions on who will win a state, personal projections of the Electoral College, or any other tangent. We provided a reminder yesterday but the derails persist. Bans will be incoming for those who continue. There's your warning -- Staff]
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Edited by Staff
normalhorn
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In reply to will25u • 4:42p, 10/21/24
will25u said:


Is JL partners a reputable/well rated outfit? That synopsis seems extremely positive
...take it easy on me, I'm a normal horn
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vmiaptetr
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In reply to vmiaptetr • 4:46p, 10/21/24
AG
vmiaptetr said:
[Reminder to the board: this thread is for posters sharing, discussing, and trying to understand polls. It's not for a discussion on voter fraud, individual opinions on who will win a state, personal projections of the Electoral College, or any other tangent. We provided a reminder yesterday but the derails persist. Bans will be incoming for those who continue. There's your warning -- Staff]
My bad.

[The reminder wasn't directed solely at you, but for the board in general. Just keep it between the lines on the thread topic and all will be good. Thanks -- Staff]
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Edited by Staff
aggiehawg
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5:17p, 10/21/24
AG
Mark Halperin is reporting now that Cook Politcal Report has changed PA Senate race from leans Dem to toss-up.
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will25u
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6:13p, 10/21/24
Really like James. Hopefully he wins.

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TheWoodlandsTxAg
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6:15p, 10/21/24
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aggiehawg
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In reply to TheWoodlandsTxAg • 6:24p, 10/21/24
AG
That's pretty close for NM, a majority-minority state. Trump making inroads with Hispanics?

Watch to see if Trump holds a rally in Albuquerque soon. Bernalillo County has a lot of sway in how the state goes.

And the Dem Governor has a very bad approval rating.

I knew Pete Domenici when he was Senator there. Good man.
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aezmvp
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In reply to TheWoodlandsTxAg • 6:25p, 10/21/24
That's an eye popping number. That gap 5-7% better than 16 and 20 respectively.
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policywonk98
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6:29p, 10/21/24
AG
People on here refuted me. Very little polling was being done in NM. I said this past summer. If polling support in Nevada for Trump was real, there is no reason he couldn't be competitive in New Mexico. They voted for a GOP governor not that long ago.

It will be interesting to see if this polling gets his campaign to at least create a campaign stop there for Trump and/or Vance. At a minimum I think the polling prompts a bigger ad buy.
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