Muh Polls

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LMCane
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In reply to ttha_aggie_09 • 11:50a, 10/19/24
ttha_aggie_09 said:
NV was not an expected battle for Senate, right? I'm wondering how much of a buffer the Rs may have with this recent momentum? 53 seats?
WV done
Montana done

that is 51 GOP

Ohio Moreno would be 52
Hovde in Wisconsin would be 53
Rogers in Michigan 54
Sam Brown 55
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LuoJi
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12:05p, 10/19/24
I don't get the confidence. Looking at swing state polls on the main sites, they are all extremely close.

These betting odds markets are meaningless.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to ttha_aggie_09 • 1:11p, 10/19/24
AG
Coming into this election cycle, Nevada was one of the top targets and Brown was the preferred candidate. He has struggled in polling, however. I do think, unfortunately, his appearance has been difficult for some people to get past.
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Captn_Ag05
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4:13p, 10/19/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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5:05p, 10/19/24
AG
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Gaeilge
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 5:38p, 10/19/24
Still so odd to see Harris up in NC, but Trump carrying Mi, NV, and PA
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Gaeilge • 5:39p, 10/19/24
AG
NC is historically hard to poll and now with a sizable part of the state still without power or dealing with rebuilding, I would imagine it's even more of a challenge.
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nortex97
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7:19p, 10/19/24
AG


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SwigAg11
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:22p, 10/19/24
AG
nortex97 said:


That is a large sample size for 1 state!
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will25u
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7:54p, 10/19/24
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SwigAg11
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In reply to will25u • 8:10p, 10/19/24
AG
Isn't OH the next most likely flip after WV and Montana?
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will25u
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8:12p, 10/19/24
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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to will25u • 8:44p, 10/19/24
Unless they've overcorrected their weighting to account for the shy Trump voters of 2016 and 2020. Very real possibility.
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will25u
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8:44p, 10/19/24
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whatthehey78
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9:07p, 10/19/24
AG
No words???? I don't see it???
Alexander, Caesar, Charlemagne, and myself founded empires; but upon what foundation did we rest the creations of our genius? Upon force! But Jesus Christ founded His upon love; and at this hour millions of men would die for Him. - Napoleon Bonaparte
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1836er
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In reply to AtticusMatlock • 9:32p, 10/19/24
AG
AtticusMatlock said:
Unless they've overcorrected their weighting to account for the shy Trump voters of 2016 and 2020. Very real possibility.


The issue isn't shy Trump voters anymore.

It's that after 8+ years of political realignment Trump/GOP voters now skew both more low propensity and working class.

As lower propensity voters they are less likely to pass "likely voter" screens, and working class voters are harder to reach/less likely to talk to pollsters.

Also, if we're being honest, most of the media/university polls survey who they survey and weight their polls the way they do to skew Democratic ON PURPOSE.

They almost always overstate Democratic support, usually outside their own margins of error, compared to actual election results, and the mainstream media/polling industry just keeps pretending that their polls are accurate reflections of reality anyway.
Vance in '28
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AtticusMatlock
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10:57p, 10/19/24
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AtticusMatlock
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11:06p, 10/19/24
I looked back several pages and not sure if this has been posted yet, but Moreno in Ohio internal polling has him up three points over Sherrod Brown.

https://www.axios.com/2024/10/17/moreno-brown-polling-ohio-senate-race-crypto

Apparently there's a new Morning Consult poll showing Moreno up one. Rasmussen now has him up one. The morning consult poll has not hit real clear politics yet.
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2023NCAggies
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1:37a, 10/20/24
LET'S GO MCCORMICK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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nortex97
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5:18a, 10/20/24
AG




In a poll of sorts, I read that 49 out of 67 sheriffs in PA have endorsed Trump.

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nortex97
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9:16a, 10/20/24
AG


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Captn_Ag05
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9:47a, 10/20/24
AG
Oh my

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Rockdoc
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10:07a, 10/20/24
AG
Not doubting the data, just curious how it changes so quickly.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Rockdoc • 11:39a, 10/20/24
AG
Races often break in the last few weeks as the undecided decide. Trump has closed strong in his previous two cycles, so this is in line with what we have seen before. I also do think pollsters want to ultimately get their final poll correct.
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agsalaska
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In reply to nortex97 • 1:15p, 10/20/24
AG
nortex97 said:


Im not seeing the silver bulletin numbers independent of the post.
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.



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agsalaska
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1:23p, 10/20/24
AG
I am not very good at X but I think that 93% number may be fake news. I cannot find it anywhere other than being posted and reposted in that graph. Nothing on Nate Silvers page or on Real Clear.
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.



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Vitani
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In reply to agsalaska • 1:35p, 10/20/24
AG
Eric Daugherty is combining a couple of sources. First, he is looking at the current RCP national average that has Harris +0.9 and then looking at a table that was created a while back that gives the probability of winning the electoral college based on the difference in the popular vote.
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agsalaska
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In reply to Vitani • 1:38p, 10/20/24
nortex97
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In reply to agsalaska • 1:38p, 10/20/24
AG
Quote:
Im not seeing the silver bulletin numbers independent of the post.
I think the claim is that the Silver Bulletin (or rather Nate Silver) agrees that if Trump loses the national popular vote by less than one he has a 93 percent chance to win the EC, because the battleground states are to the right of the NPV.



Nate himself (via his algorithms/weighting of recent polls like Quinnipiac/Redfield etc) does have Trump closing/moving in the right direction still:



Sorry if previous post was misleading.
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agsalaska
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In reply to nortex97 • 1:59p, 10/20/24
AG
I got it. Tht makes a lot more sense.
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.



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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 5:04p, 10/20/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
Races often break in the last few weeks as the undecided decide. Trump has closed strong in his previous two cycles, so this is in line with what we have seen before. I also do think pollsters want to ultimately get their final poll correct.


What's your take on this one? You think they've corrected the hidden support or you think he'll overpower again by same margins. I think the hidden support has grown A LOT since 2020
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aezmvp
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 6:45p, 10/20/24
[Reminder to the board: this thread is for posters sharing, discussing, and trying to understand polls. It's not for a discussion on voter fraud, individual opinions on who will win a state, personal projections of the Electoral College, etc. Keep it to the intended topic. Thanks -- Staff]
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will25u
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9:38p, 10/20/24

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aginlakeway
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10:00p, 10/20/24
AG
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
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aggiehawg
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In reply to will25u • 10:01p, 10/20/24
AG
Bernie Sanders did her no favors today going on Jake Tapper and saying she was lying about her backing the Green New Dea; anti=fracking and healthcare for all "because she wants to win an election."
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