Muh Polls

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Rockdoc
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12:10p, 10/18/24
AG
Looks like a trajectory to me!
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Captn_Ag05
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12:20p, 10/18/24
AG
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Ag06Law
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In reply to aggiehawg • 12:36p, 10/18/24
AG
aggiehawg said:


So is that a trend, Nate? Or still "statistical noise"?


Seems like Nate was given marching orders to go out there and sell it as a close race, but is now abandoning ship to try to get on the right side before the end.
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nortex97
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In reply to Ag06Law • 12:57p, 10/18/24
AG
Nate lives in NYC and considers his model a coin flip until one side is over 60 percent I believe.



First comment:
Quote:
Trump takes the lead in Nate Silver's forecast. Trump 51.6, Harris 48.1 Those are odds of winning, not a prediction of the vote. But this is the first full lead above 1% for Trump since the debate.

And the trendline.....oh, the trendline. And it comports with the polls.

Now imagine if Nate Silver added in the (still early) early vote data.

Ooooooooooooomf.
I again actually like Nate despite his being a flaming partisan Democrat, but their team is dangerously close to 'throwing in the towel' at this point. Really, he's best as just a 'numbers' guy. I believe after this weekend, historically, early voting starts to mean more than polls, but with the GOP shifting to push early voting more than in the past, that will be tougher to contextually interpret than the polls this cycle (especially vs. 2020 covid election), and we are about to go into more of a vacuum space in terms of good public polling on a daily basis.

A lot of folks on this thread are keeping an eye on the trends and feel good about them right now I think, as do I.
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LMCane
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1:07p, 10/18/24
look at the difference in the same pollster from 2020 to 2024"

Biden +11

now

Harris +1

Final popular vote poll US National electorate

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Captn_Ag05
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1:29p, 10/18/24
AG
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rathAG05
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In reply to LMCane • 1:31p, 10/18/24
AG
He is under 2% in the RCP average.
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to LMCane • 1:35p, 10/18/24
AG
LMCane said:
really would feel a LOT better if Trump in the next two weeks can get that national poll average under +2 for Harris

if he gets it down to a 1.6% or 1.7% national lead for Harris, that is in really good shape to win.


Captn_ag05 had a comment on that previously. I don't remember the number but it was something like if she is up less than 3.5 in the national, she's going to lose.
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LMCane
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1:36p, 10/18/24
as some asking the clarification between likely and registered voters. here is the Gallup model

just looking on the twitters, one sees a lot of first time old voters who will now vote trump in PA. They are probably not being picked up on voter screens as they have NEVER voted or been registered.

Understanding Gallup's Likely Voter Procedures for Presidential Elections
Since 1950, Gallup has used likely voter models to identify Americans who are most likely to vote in upcoming presidential elections. These procedures address the need to winnow down national adult or registered voter surveys to a subset of respondents who are most representative of the likely voter electorate. Many more people say they will vote than actually do, so it is not sufficient to simply ask people whether they will vote.

Gallup's likely voter procedures involve asking poll respondents a variety of questions about their interest in the coming election, their past voting behavior, and their intention to vote in the coming election (see the exact question wording in the "Question Wording" section). Gallup analysts have developed and validated these questions over the years and have modified them as necessary to take into account new information and changes in the ways in which the voting process takes place.

Gallup gives respondents one point for each question they answer in a way consistent with voting (the scoring scheme is detailed in subsequent paragraphs), resulting in overall likelihood of voting scores ranging from zero to seven. Gallup has then used various procedures to set a threshold for the pool of likely voters. The validity of setting a threshold based on a specific estimated turnout among the voting age population (VAP) or voter eligible population (VEP) is less clear than it was in the past, particularly given real-world changes in voting, such as early voting and decreases in survey participation rates. For the 2008 and 2012 elections, Gallup considered respondents with the highest scores (six or seven) to be likely voters.
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LMCane
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 1:38p, 10/18/24
FTAG 2000 said:
LMCane said:
really would feel a LOT better if Trump in the next two weeks can get that national poll average under +2 for Harris

if he gets it down to a 1.6% or 1.7% national lead for Harris, that is in really good shape to win.


Captn_ag05 had a comment on that previously. I don't remember the number but it was something like if she is up less than 3.5 in the national, she's going to lose.
it's possible to win with a Harris +3 in national polls but that was the outside maximum

which is why I will be happy if we get it down to 1.4 or 1.5 in the final polls- that likely brings a nice Electoral College victory in PA / WI / AZ / GA / NC
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In reply to Ag06Law • 1:46p, 10/18/24
AG
Ag06Law said:
aggiehawg said:


So is that a trend, Nate? Or still "statistical noise"?


Seems like Nate was given marching orders to go out there and sell it as a close race, but is now abandoning ship to try to get on the right side before the end.

If the polling inconsistency stays the same as 2020, this would indicate that Trump is actually ahead almost 15 points
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LMCane
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1:55p, 10/18/24
just to follow up on the "likely voter screen" issues with the polls

as below- there are a bunch of these older people who have NEVER voted or even registered before. would they be picked up on any poll? I doubt it. and my guess is we have more of this on our side in MI/WI/PA than Kamala does

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LMCane
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2:57p, 10/18/24
Any of the experts know when the FINAL polls will start to come out?

meaning do some companies keep polling until election day- when others stop 2 weeks or 10 days out?
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LMCane
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2:57p, 10/18/24
this looks very encouraging- especially if they are still somewhat undercounting silent Trump voters

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2023NCAggies
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3:19p, 10/18/24
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will25u
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3:55p, 10/18/24
HA

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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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4:00p, 10/18/24
They are a horrible polling outfit. Comical they are still doing it.
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4
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In reply to Mostly Foggy Recollection • 4:03p, 10/18/24
AG
Mostly Foggy Recollection said:
They are a horrible polling outfit. Comical they are still doing it.

Yeah. That one and, ironically, the recent Fox News poll showing Trump down by 6 points in the toss up states are so far out of the mainstream polling that one wonders who the hell they polled??
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1836er
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In reply to LMCane • 4:05p, 10/18/24
AG
LMCane said:
Any of the experts know when the FINAL polls will start to come out?

meaning do some companies keep polling until election day- when others stop 2 weeks or 10 days out?
I was looking at both the RCP and 5 3 8 sites yesterday and saw a whole bunch of the familiar polls that were still publishing polls in 2020 within a week of election day.
Vance in '28
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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to will25u • 4:07p, 10/18/24
Should note the point of that raw Bullfinch unweighted poll is so users can download the raw data and weight the data based on their preference. They know they had a heavy D sample.
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nortex97
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 4:32a, 10/19/24
AG
Waffledynamics said:
aggiehawg said:
Quote:
This. People need to stop expecting the Amish to sway these polls. They aren't a huge force.
Uhmm? Link for that? TIA.


Per this site, <10% vote.

https://www.amishbaskets.com/blogs/blog/do-the-amish-vote-for-president?srsltid=AfmBOoqyuGAwq06fZdjELDAduISyuv_qHNKioDk0x11yJvB1s2CWDV_l




I haven't checked out this 'vote hub' site but they have some interesting tools:



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Waffledynamics
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In reply to nortex97 • 6:43a, 10/19/24
AG
How would there be 180,000 Amish registered voters if there aren't even half of that number of Amish in Pennsylvania? A quick search shows there are 88,850 at most. That's every man, woman, and child.

The Amish do not tend to vote and do not obviously show up in polls in significant amounts.
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nortex97
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 7:22a, 10/19/24
AG
I think it counts the communities around them a well. Could be wrong.

Edit to add: 20% of black males in GA appear to be voting for Trump (4 percent Stein).

Quote:
If former President Donald Trump wins Georgia for the first time since 2016, it'll be because he succeeded in getting a key demographic to come out for him during ongoing early voting and on Election Day.

That's what an East Carolina University poll shows, with more than one in five black men in the Peach State down with the Donald.

Twenty-two percent of the group backs Trump, with Democrat Kamala Harris at 74% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 4%.
….

In the race for 16 critical electoral votes, Trump leads Harris overall by 3 points, 49% to 46%.

This poll of 701 registered voters between Oct. 9 and 14 validates Trump's plays to black men overtures seldom seen in Republican politics in decades yet poised in the homestretch to potentially swing Georgia and other battlegrounds.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 8:40a, 10/19/24
AG
Waffledynamics said:
How would there be 180,000 Amish registered voters if there aren't even half of that number of Amish in Pennsylvania? A quick search shows there are 88,850 at most. That's every man, woman, and child.

The Amish do not tend to vote and do not obviously show up in polls in significant amounts.


Also that video of the buggy is from 2020. There has been an effort to register the Amish, but otherwise everything else about that tweet is inaccurate.
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Captn_Ag05
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8:41a, 10/19/24
AG
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 8:55a, 10/19/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Waffledynamics said:
How would there be 180,000 Amish registered voters if there aren't even half of that number of Amish in Pennsylvania? A quick search shows there are 88,850 at most. That's every man, woman, and child.

The Amish do not tend to vote and do not obviously show up in polls in significant amounts.


Also that video of the buggy is from 2020. There has been an effort to register the Amish, but otherwise everything else about that tweet is inaccurate.
Do you think maybe Mennonites might be included as "Amish'? They are very similar and people confuse the two often.
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nortex97
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In reply to aggiehawg • 9:09a, 10/19/24
AG
There's a whole swath of folks who are Amish "adjacent." Sort of like how we have a huge number of folks from Baptist families but who are not by any definition practicing southern baptists. I doubt their registration drives etc. discriminated on the basis of being a practicing Amish community member.

The trigger of the feds (USDA) going after that one self reliant organic farmer has ignited some significant share of their community, imho, to vote against Democrats this time. That's why their registrations, turnout, and political participation in PA is much different and worth watching.
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ts5641
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In reply to nortex97 • 9:12a, 10/19/24
nortex97 said:
I think it counts the communities around them a well. Could be wrong.

Edit to add: 20% of black males in GA appear to be voting for Trump (4 percent Stein).

Quote:
If former President Donald Trump wins Georgia for the first time since 2016, it'll be because he succeeded in getting a key demographic to come out for him during ongoing early voting and on Election Day.

That's what an East Carolina University poll shows, with more than one in five black men in the Peach State down with the Donald.

Twenty-two percent of the group backs Trump, with Democrat Kamala Harris at 74% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 4%.
….

In the race for 16 critical electoral votes, Trump leads Harris overall by 3 points, 49% to 46%.

This poll of 701 registered voters between Oct. 9 and 14 validates Trump's plays to black men overtures seldom seen in Republican politics in decades yet poised in the homestretch to potentially swing Georgia and other battlegrounds.
If Trump gets 20% of the black male vote he most likely wins.
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Captn_Ag05
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10:22a, 10/19/24
AG
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SwigAg11
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 10:29a, 10/19/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:

What's the * for in the figure?
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Gaeilge
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 10:31a, 10/19/24
Incumbent
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ttha_aggie_09
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 10:48a, 10/19/24
AG
NV was not an expected battle for Senate, right? I'm wondering how much of a buffer the Rs may have with this recent momentum? 53 seats?
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Barnyard96
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10:50a, 10/19/24
AG

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nortex97
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In reply to ttha_aggie_09 • 10:56a, 10/19/24
AG
ttha_aggie_09 said:
NV was not an expected battle for Senate, right? I'm wondering how much of a buffer the Rs may have with this recent momentum? 53 seats?
I think she was pretty flat and dismissive in the debate. If republicans get jazzed about trump there both could be pulled over the line.
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aggiehawg
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11:47a, 10/19/24
AG
Pittsburgh Cookie Poll.

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