Hungry Ojos said:

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Harris Faulkner just showed a clip of some dem pollster guru claiming that the polls showing Trump ahead were "horse****" and that he wasn't concerned at all about Harris losing. No idea what to believe.

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That's what Trump voters said in 2020

🚨🚨BARIS MICHIGAN poll: TRUMP +3.5% (3.7% with leaners)

(Generic vs the field)
Trump 48.6% (+3.5%)
Harris 45.1%

With Leaners
Trump 49.3% (+3.7%)
Harris 45.6% https://t.co/TRfHboZl3N

— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 15, 2024

#NEW NORTH CAROLINA poll

🔴 Trump: 46.5% (+1.9)
🔵 Harris: 44.6%
🟡 Undecided: 5.2%
🟢 Other: 3.6%@trafalgar_group | 10/10-13 | N=1,085LV

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 15, 2024

please let this happen!!

For the first time we can compare the Top 3 pollsters for MICHIGAN from 2020 with their current polling:

Atlas Intel: Trump +3.4% (Sept 28)
Insider Advantage: Trump +2 (Oct 10)
Baris (Big Data Poll): Trump +3.5% (Oct 15)

Average from Top 3 for Michigan: Trump +3% https://t.co/1jvoxpx2Sa

— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 15, 2024

For the more visual folks

1836er said:

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AtticusMatlock said:

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Another interesting point is that despite many of the polls being off in 2020 the RCP average on Election Day was actually pretty close to the outcome in many states.

Biden won Pennsylvania by almost exactly the RCP average. iirc Michigan was also close to the final RCP number. Wisconsin was the huge outlier in that Trump did way better than the RCP average.

I would not necessarily expect a huge swing on Election Day to Trump over what the polls are already saying.

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In both 2016 and 2020 the public polls did close a little in Trump's direction at the very last minute, and there are two explanations for this - both of which I think are true.

1) Trumps tends to be a good closer, and there was some slight to modest movement in his direction very late in both elections.

2) After having purposefully overstated Clinton's and Biden's support for the most of the election cycle, they cranked out a few more realistic polls at the very last minute so they could pretend that their polls weren't "that far off" the actual results. In essence they're saying "pay no attention to our polls from January to October when comparing them to the actual elections results... just focus on the very last one we did the weekend before the election." The mainstream media, or course, would buy it, so they would avoid being called out for having their polls serve as Democrat propaganda for most of the election cycle.

Even still... in the final polls - for both the national popular vote and the swing state polls - they still tended to understate Trump's actual vote by 4-6 points.

If we were to compare the public polls from early October, September, and August of those years, the degree to which they understated Trump's actual vote was even worse.

It is my contention in both 2016 and 2020, as well as in 2024, that Trump was never as far down as the media/university polls said... and the slightly more realistic polls they published "at the last minute" were done to preserve their "credibility" as pollsters.

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As I have been voting for President since 1992 this is 100% correct above

I don't think there has been an election in my adult lifetime where the Republican did as well in the polls as in the electoral college

even Bush in 2004 was neck and neck with Kerry in the polls but it was not that close in the EC voting.

I mean it's just a fact that if the polls are still undercounting Trump support by even 1.5%-

this election will be won by Trump.

so it all comes down to getting out the vote,

and hoping the pollsters did not "overcorrect" from their previous stupidity

I think everyone knows this, but maybe some don't.

We won't know how good the polling is until after the election. So really, any number is just a guess. BUT. One thing to watch in polls is TRENDS.

Are Trump/Harris's numbers trending up or down? That is the only reliable question that can be answered.

#New @Reuters General election poll

🔵 Harris 47% (+3)
🔴 Trump 44%

Ipsos #B - 769 LV - 10/13

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 15, 2024

Captn_Ag05 said:

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#New @Reuters General election poll

🔵 Harris 47% (+3)
🔴 Trump 44%

Ipsos #B - 769 LV - 10/13

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 15, 2024

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Here's the same poll from the same time period in 2020.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/reutersipsos-core-political-survey-general-election-tracker-10142020

That was Biden +10 on October 14, 2020... in case you don't want to sift through that yourself.

Nate just throwing darts at a dart board, at this point.

Today's update. It's now literally 50/50.https://t.co/vsGVG18HHI pic.twitter.com/IynflBiMWb

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 15, 2024

Funny how his and Polly market are identical until around the debate time and then after that time. Period.

It's pathetic at this point.

Aside from being a Democratic hack, part of what he doing is just an ego-driven effort to stay (as if he were in the first place, LOL) relevant.

NORTH CAROLINA GE: @Rasmussen_Poll

🟥 Trump: 51%
🟦 Harris: 46% @AmericanThinker | 1,072 LV | 10/9-14https://t.co/0uO5LIM6IB pic.twitter.com/4vIn0E8icY

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 15, 2024

1836er said:

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It's pathetic at this point.

Aside from being a Democratic hack, part of what he doing is just an ego-driven effort to stay (as if he were in the first place, LOL) relevant.

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Agree. Laughable.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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NORTH CAROLINA GE: @Rasmussen_Poll

🟥 Trump: 51%
🟦 Harris: 46% @AmericanThinker | 1,072 LV | 10/9-14https://t.co/0uO5LIM6IB pic.twitter.com/4vIn0E8icY

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 15, 2024

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Is that an R leaning poll?

At this point in the election four years ago (10-21-2020) Rasmussen had Trump +1 over Biden. The actual election result was Trump +1.3, so Rasmussen was pretty much right on the dot.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/north_carolina_trump_48_biden_47

P.S. Their final poll in 2020 was also Trump +1.

Nevada dead heat:

Breaking: Dead heat between Trump and Harris in Nevada, latest polling shows https://t.co/qykJta4AVc

— John Solomon (@jsolomonReports) October 15, 2024

This is again to me the least likely Trump flip, so very encouraging. W was the last to win it, in 2004:

Quote:

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The race in Nevada for the 2024 general election is now tied between Harris and Trump, according to FiveThirtyEight.
A Wall Street Journal poll conducted from 9/28 through 10/8 shows Trump leading by 6 but other polls show Harris leading slightly.
The Hill Newspaper and Emerson College released results from a poll conducted from 10/5 through 10/8 showing Harris up by 1 point.
The RealClearPolitics polling average shows the race is tied.
Harris is reportedly struggling to gain traction with Hispanic voters in the state.

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Quote:

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This is again to me the least likely Trump flip, so very encouraging. W was the last to win it, in 2004:

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The Harry Reid Machine is in its death throes. Rank and file union members are not on the reservation anymore.

Rasmussen with a tie in their overnight. Trump plus 3 in the four day average.

ANNNND - WE'RE OFF! 🐎

Our 1st Trump v Harris 2024 Daily Tracking Poll ! https://t.co/oa2ge10vEc pic.twitter.com/0Jq591bTqE

— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) October 15, 2024

They also quadrupled their sample volume for their dailys so it will bounce around less now.

#New General election poll

🔴 Trump 48% (+3)
🔵 Harris 45%

Last poll - 🔴 Trump +2

Rasmussen #C - 1948 LV - 10/14

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 15, 2024

[Reminder to the board: this thread is for posters sharing, discussing, and trying to understand polls. It's not for a discussion on family political machines, Kamala Harris' middle class upbringing, voter fraud, individual opinions on who will win a state, personal projections of the Electoral College, etc. Keep it to the intended topic. Thanks -- Staff]

No, they are still doing only 400-500 a night and then a running aggregate of the four days that they push out daily as a four day total.

I'm still having fun comparing polling from the previous 2 elections. There's never been a modern election where we have 1 constant to compare across 3 different polling cycles (Trump being that constant).


2016 Polls pretty heavily favored Hillary and Trump won the electoral college big with some narrow swing state victories.

2020 Polls VERY heavily favored Biden and Biden won the electoral college big with some razor thin swing state victories.

2024 Polls now slightly favoring Trump so it's hard to imagine Kamala even getting close. She may only do slightly worse than Hillary with regards to electoral votes, but some of the swing states won't be near as close and Trump might even take the popular vote.

At least, that's what the polling comparisons are saying.

aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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This is again to me the least likely Trump flip, so very encouraging. W was the last to win it, in 2004:

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The Harry Reid Machine is in its death throes. Rank and file union members are not on the reservation anymore.

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Ralston, liberal political analyst/pollster in Nevada, is losing his mind. His tweets are showing more and more despair every day.

I was contacted the other day by Research Polls of Texas via text and it was an online form I filled out. (probably 7-10 questions)

Is that how most/some of the samples are taken for these polls current day or is it still just robo/phone-dialing? mostly?

If Polymarket and Predictit are right, and the mainstream polling industry fails again with their "high quality polls" like they did in 2016 and 2020 then they are basically over as a industry.

No one will ever trust them again.

The only people with any credibility will be Mark Mitchell, Rich Baris, Scott Rasmussen, Atlas Intel, and Trafalgar.

I can't believe mainstream Democrat aligned polling had Biden +11 Wisconsin in 2020 (final NY Times Siena), and it ended up being a dead heat. Reuters had Biden +10 in 2020 in their final Wisconsin poll. CNN, Emerson, and CNBC were almost as bad. The only one that got it correct was Trafalgar.

What a failure by the Dem aligned mainstream media polls.

This is very common. It's way more cost effective than employing call centers with humans to ask questions.

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No one will ever trust them again.

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Memories are short and desire to know what is happening is high. They will never fade away.

I would like to think a lot of the pollsters have adjusted their models. While a lot of people know that there's going to be bias one thing these big polling companies don't want to be is wrong and viewed as unreliable.

outofstateaggie said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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This is again to me the least likely Trump flip, so very encouraging. W was the last to win it, in 2004:

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The Harry Reid Machine is in its death throes. Rank and file union members are not on the reservation anymore.

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Ralston, liberal political analyst/pollster in Nevada, is losing his mind. His tweets are showing more and more despair every day.

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I was actually referring back to a statement by Rich Baris about the Reid Machine being "on life support, not dead yet." That was what he was seeing from his polling. He's a good follow, IMO.

AtticusMatlock said:

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I would like to think a lot of the pollsters have adjusted their models. While a lot of people know that there's going to be bias one thing these big polling companies don't want to be is wrong and viewed as unreliable.

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Sure, and I think about that too (I'm certainly not an expert here). But it didn't feel like they adjusted them much after being way off in 2016. I mean, they at least got the "winner" right, but they were still far left of the actual state by state margins.

Doesn't mean they haven't adjust this year, but as I said, it's part of the fun because Trump is the constant denominator here and the polls (for the first time) have him winning.

But then you start looking at the cross tabs and the breakdowns don't make much sense in a lot of these polls.