Muh Polls

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Philip J Fry
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4:12p, 10/4/24
AG
What I really mean is look at Wisconsin, Penn, and Michigan. A handful of counties is all that matters and she's doing terribly compared to previous cycles.
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Sq 17
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 4:37p, 10/4/24
Or the pollsters are doing a better job of modeling the results from the sample.
All Of these results are models based on educated guesses working with data from the small sub set of people who answer there phone from an unknown caller
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Philip J Fry
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5:42p, 10/4/24
AG
That's right. After a decade of being off by 4-5%, now they've dialed it in.

Kind of hard to believe.
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outofstateaggie
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 5:49p, 10/4/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:




Interesting.

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Hungry Ojos
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In reply to outofstateaggie • 6:35p, 10/4/24
What is the significance of this?
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McInnis 03
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In reply to Hungry Ojos • 6:43p, 10/4/24
AG
Hungry Ojos said:
What is the significance of this?


Sounds like repub money is getting pulled from Nevada. This can be a sign of conceding the state.
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FTAG 2000
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6:43p, 10/4/24
AG
Ralston is saying republican senate pac is pulling ads in Nevada, meaning they are conceding Nevada senate race.

He's a huge, stuck up liberal POS.
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YokelRidesAgain
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In reply to Hungry Ojos • 6:44p, 10/4/24
AG
Hungry Ojos said:
What is the significance of this?
Not sure what Gen 2 LLC is, but they seem to contribute to Republican candidates and fund ads for same.

Implication is that GOP is pulling back from Nevada.

Could just mean that they can do math and figure out that there are not a lot of plausible maps where Nevada puts Harris over the top.
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txags92
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In reply to Hungry Ojos • 6:45p, 10/4/24
AG
Hungry Ojos said:
What is the significance of this?
I think the insinuation is that they are giving up on Nevada and pulling their ad spending to use it elsewhere. Could mean they think Nevada is lost…could also mean their internal polling for larger swing states is telling them they won't need Nevada. Without more info, it is missing context.
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Quo Vadis?
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6:53p, 10/4/24
This is the Republican Senate fund, seems like they're waving the white flag on taking the senate seat in NV
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Viper16
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 11:37p, 10/4/24
AG
Quo Vadis? said:
This is the Republican Senate fund, seems like they're waving the white flag on taking the senate seat in NV
Agree
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oh no
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1:03a, 10/5/24
AG
That sucks. I like Sam Brown. He's a real American hero.
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2023NCAggies
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1:52a, 10/5/24
.
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nortex97
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4:30a, 10/5/24
AG


Nevada is looking very good for the GOP, for POTUS regarding the above discussion, definitely better than 2016 and Trump is doing better with hispanics/independents/labor union members there than ever. I think Rich Baris said he has Trump +3 right now in NV. It has the second highest unemployment rate in the country, highly likely more on the 'wrong track' vs. national.






Ipsos yesterday: (I can't find the actual cross-tabs/poll, sorry).
Quote:
Fresh polling of the seven swing states widely seen as deciding factors in the presidential election holds good news for Donald Trump.

The 1,598 likely voters Ipsos polled in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin rate the Republican nominee better in key areas than Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.
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SwigAg11
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In reply to nortex97 • 8:06a, 10/5/24
AG
It looks like once again the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll is inflating the RCP average for Harris.
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rwpag71
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10:37a, 10/5/24
AG
Nevada would be a good buffer for Trump in the event of a possible loss in NC due to all of the disruption.
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evestor1
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In reply to rwpag71 • 10:48a, 10/5/24
It would seem that Asheville and Boone would be relatively liberal.


Does the flooding hurt D or R more in terms of votes? I would have assumed it hurt D more.
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rwpag71
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In reply to evestor1 • 11:02a, 10/5/24
AG
Not sure. Axelrod seems to believe the more intelligent and affluent liberals impacted will find their way to the polls while the Trump rubes will be floundering.
OK, that might be a slight exaggeration
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IDaggie06
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In reply to evestor1 • 11:06a, 10/5/24
AG
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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to rwpag71 • 11:36a, 10/5/24
rwpag71 said:
Nevada would be a good buffer for Trump in the event of a possible loss in NC due to all of the disruption.


Nevada doesn't do a whole lot except in a very weird circumstance where Trump loses Georgia and wins PA, or loses NC and wins PA.
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aggiehawg
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2:51p, 10/5/24
AG
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to evestor1 • 10:31p, 10/5/24
evestor1 said:
It would seem that Asheville and Boone would be relatively liberal.


Does the flooding hurt D or R more in terms of votes? I would have assumed it hurt D more.


They have no shot in Georgia or NC now after the storm. It won't be within 75k for either. That was horrible press for them. Yall are crazy to think she has a shot there
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to nortex97 • 10:34p, 10/5/24
Check these headlines out lol they are almost in full tilt meltdown mode gentlemen.


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nortex97
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 4:07a, 10/6/24
AG
'People of color' are walking off the Dem plantation:





Remember Trump only got 8 percent of black voters in 2020, but recent polls have him anywhere from 16 to 40 percent in various states/nationally, and either winning outright or losing by only 15 or so the Hispanic vote. This is why they are desperately pulling the Kenyan One out into the field to campaign for them.



Nerves.
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Barnyard96
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In reply to nortex97 • 9:27a, 10/6/24
AG

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nortex97
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 9:41a, 10/6/24
AG


I do think the betting markets can be swung by the enthusiasm/perception of the more hardcore partisans, on either side. For instance, theoretically Elon Musk could place a 500 million dollar wager on Trump and move the needle significantly, but he's only one vote, in reality. And, it's worth pointing out the advantage with the wealthy/elite the Democrats/socialists always have, not just in ad spending/party donations. But, I like tracking the trends anyway, I guess just as a politics geek.



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Barnyard96
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In reply to nortex97 • 10:31a, 10/6/24
AG
I dont fully understand what drives betting markets or what to make of the averages.
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nortex97
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5:16a, 10/7/24
AG
Presumably a fabrizio poll?



I guess the NYT admitted yesterday that they have been weighting to advantage Harris vs. even 2020 turnout rates. Big surprise there (that they admitted this).



NBC: PA Latino belt shifts toward Trump.
Quote:
And then, from Trump's standpoint, there's a lot of rural counties in the state that have gotten redder, small, rural counties. But let's talk about this collection here. Some people call this the Latino belt of Pennsylvania. These are counties that have some small to mid-sized cities with rapidly growing Latino populations. And we've been talking about Trump improving, relative to 2020 and 2016, among Hispanic voters. Well, you can see it. Here are some of the cities in that Latino belt in Pennsylvania. Reading, Pennsylvania. It's 70% Latino. Now, it was overwhelmingly Democratic in 2020. Joe Biden won by 45 points. But look at that. That's down almost 20 points from 2012. Hazelton, Pennsylvania, more than 60% Hispanic. In 2012, Democrats won it narrowly. It's now a double-digit Trump place. Allentown, it has come down 10 points in its margin for Democrats.

Can Trump grow new support in the Latino counties, the emerging Latino counties, with large populations of Latino voters in Pennsylvania? That's a key from his campaign standpoint, to the state to the Keystone State.
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ts5641
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In reply to nortex97 • 5:31a, 10/7/24
New Mexico is definitely not in play but an encouraging development nonetheless.
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GoAgs11
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In reply to ts5641 • 5:32a, 10/7/24
ts5641 said:
New Mexico is definitely not in play but an encouraging development nonetheless.


New mexico is in play
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Sq 17
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 5:35a, 10/7/24
Philip J Fry said:
That's right. After a decade of being off by 4-5%, now they've dialed it in.

Kind of hard to believe.
Blind squirrels find nuts occasionally and the pollsters have missed almost every election for a decade first they couldn't accurately poll Trump now Dobbs is also proving hard to model
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SwigAg11
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In reply to nortex97 • 5:53a, 10/7/24
AG
Still trying to understand why Rasmussen is pointing out the recall voting. It just feels like wishful thinking, but I'm probably misinterpreting what it means.

There has just been so much manipulation of the polls this election it seems.
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nortex97
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 7:59a, 10/7/24
AG
Pointing out weighting/cross tabs in other polls isn't really unusual for them, imho.

Good:


Not good (and I don't believe it):


When you're doing a whole state that is close (well, one much larger/more diverse than, say, Vermont), I don't think 400 respondents gives a real solid MOE/result. And that was gathered from Sept 7 thru Oct 6? I kinda think things might have changed over the course of the month.

A 'bellweather county' PA poll is sort of funny, with more utility as to trends by demographics imho than anything else:
Quote:
"In a reversal from 2020, Pennsylvania's 'Bellwether Counties' have narrowly swung back to Donald Trump," the pollster wrote, determining that the former president is winning over traditional Democrat voters that view Harris as too radical. "As Democrats have a 4-point party registration advantage in these counties, this is further evidence of these ancestral Democrats increasingly leaving the party of their forefathers."
As with the rest of the country, the economy and immigration are at the top of mind for bellwether voters, with 31% listing inflation and the economy as their top issue, and 24% saying the biggest issue is immigration and border security.
Former President Trump holds a 6-point lead on the economy (52-46) and a significant 15-point lead (56-41) on immigration. He's also ahead by 6% on crime (52-46), while Harris holds a 14% advantage on abortion (53-39), though fewer than one in five bellwether voters share her position that it should be legal up until birth.
Quote:
Polling from Cygnal indicates that Donald Trump has further solidified his support among working-class voters. He holds a 16% lead among union households and a 13% advantage with voters earning less than $100,000 a year.

While Harris holds a 27-point lead with college-educated bellwether voters, Trump is ahead by 20 points among those without a college degree.

Harris also outperforms Trump with wealthier households she's up by 18 points among those earning over six figures and women under 55 a group she carries by 25 points.

In addition to a wide education and wealth gap, the poll also shows a stark divide along gender lines. Harris leads by 25% with women, while Trump is ahead by 29% among men.
…
Among bellwether voters in the state, Shapiro has a plus-14-point favorability rating, while Walz sits at plus-2. And more importantly, in a hypothetical Trump/Vance Harris/Shapiro head-to-head, the Democrats are ahead by one point (48-47).
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nortex97
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8:09a, 10/7/24
AG
What if Hispanic men wind up saving us from what black women would collectively elect?

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McInnis 03
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In reply to nortex97 • 8:20a, 10/7/24
AG
I cannot help but think NC goes blue now with such a large chunk of GOP voters having far more worrisome things to deal with.

I think i read that in the counties most affected by absolute and crushing devastation the vote counts were something like 150K GOP and 30k or 40K DEM?
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