Quo Vadis? said:

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I wonder if the hurricane pissed off Georgians and Carolinians. That's a huge swing

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Doubt there is a way to calculate the impact of the storm, especially this soon after.

The impact of the craziness going on right now is what I am waiting on, in its entirety. Israel, the storm, the port strike, etc. None of it is good news for Harris, all of those issues will impact pricing on everything.

Next weeks polls will be revealing some of that i assume

2023NCAggies said:

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Quo Vadis? said:

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I wonder if the hurricane pissed off Georgians and Carolinians. That's a huge swing

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Doubt there is a way to calculate the impact of the storm, especially this soon after.

The impact of the craziness going on right now is what I am waiting on, in its entirety. Israel, the storm, the port strike, etc. None of it is good news for Harris, all of those issues will impact pricing on everything.

Next weeks polls will be revealing some of that i assume

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Correct. All bad news for her.

She is the VP and #2 in the current administration. Despite her efforts, she is part of the administration that is in charge right now, and has been for the last 3+ years.

nortex97 said:

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#New General election poll

North Carolina
🔴 Trump 49%
🔵 Harris 48%

Arizona
🔴 Trump 50% (+3)
🔵 Harris 47%

Emerson (RCW) #B - 900 LV (Each) - 9/28

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 1, 2024

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Emerson's last poll was Harris +1 in NC and Trump +2 in AZ. Movement towards Trump here. Notice a trend?

2023NCAggies said:

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Quo Vadis? said:

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I wonder if the hurricane pissed off Georgians and Carolinians. That's a huge swing

---

Doubt there is a way to calculate the impact of the storm, especially this soon after.

The impact of the craziness going on right now is what I am waiting on, in its entirety. Israel, the storm, the port strike, etc. None of it is good news for Harris, all of those issues will impact pricing on everything.

Next weeks polls will be revealing some of that i assume

---

VP Debate also. Not that VPs have had huge influence on elections but if Vance does well, it can't hurt.

It will be interesting to see the polling on this. I hope someone asks the question directly. But I could see a disaster for Walz have a measurable impact on the polling. I know it would be unusual but it makes some sense this year.

#New General election poll - Pennsylvania

🔵 Harris 48%
🔴 Trump 48%

Emerson (RCW) #B - 1000 LV - 9/28

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 1, 2024

agsalaska said:

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It will be interesting to see the polling on this. I hope someone asks the question directly. But I could see a disaster for Walz have a measurable impact on the polling. I know it would be unusual but it makes some sense this year.

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In most polls Walz has a plus 14 favorbility while Vance has a negative 11. This is abnormal in the history of polling. If Vance destroys Walz, you could see a few points swing.

4stringAg said:

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2023NCAggies said:

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Quo Vadis? said:

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I wonder if the hurricane pissed off Georgians and Carolinians. That's a huge swing

---

Doubt there is a way to calculate the impact of the storm, especially this soon after.

The impact of the craziness going on right now is what I am waiting on, in its entirety. Israel, the storm, the port strike, etc. None of it is good news for Harris, all of those issues will impact pricing on everything.

Next weeks polls will be revealing some of that i assume

---

VP Debate also. Not that VPs have had huge influence on elections but if Vance does well, it can't hurt.

---

Would think that it would help the polling if Vance does well. Trump is close to 80 after all and there is a non zero chance of Vance being Pres

Looking at the polls on this thread and things I've seen elsewhere... Ohio is so interesting. It's been such a coveted & contested state since I've been alive (Carter & Reagan Years).

Trump could potentially win it by double digits in '24. That's wild. It's always been a battleground state but it looks like several people "experts" feel like the battle is over before it even began this year.

🚨 The latest Pennsylvania poll from Emerson found that among independents, Trump leads by 12 points on which candidate would be better for their personal finances.

Folks, he isn't losing if this keeps up. Economy is #1.

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 1, 2024

Senate Prediction Updates

Cook Political Report:
Lean D: AZ, NV, PA, WI
Toss Up: MI, OH
Lean R: MT, TX
Results in 51R, 47D, 2 unknown

FiveThirtyEight (% spread for D shown):
Lean D : WI (+5%), MI (+5%), PA (+6%), AZ (+7%)
Toss Up: OH (+2.7%)
Lean R: TX (-3%), FL (-4%), MT (-4%)
Results in 51R, 48D, 1 unknown

RealClearPolling:
Lean D: OH (+4%), PA (+4%), MI (+5%), WI (+3%), AZ (+6%), NV (+8%), MD (+8%)
Lean R: MT (-6%), FL (-4%), TX (-5%)
Results in 51R, 49D

PolyMarket:
By State: MT - R (-56%), OH-tossup (+1%), PA-D (+64%), FL-R (-63%), NV-D (+74%), MI-D (+61%), TX-R (+64%), WI-D (+63%). Results in 51R, 48D, 1 unknown
Number of R seats: <50-11% chance, 50-16%, 51-23%, 52-36%, 53-8%
Democrat Senate Control: 27% chance

#New general Election Poll - Wisconsin

🔴 Trump 47% (+1)
🔵 Harris 46%

Trafalgar #C - LV - 9/30

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 2, 2024

That puts Harris under 49 in wisconsin RCP average.

Will the polls seek reality in the next two weeks? https://t.co/2rMo3zlRh1

— Scott Adams (@ScottAdamsSays) October 2, 2024

Ben brings up a good point- in these polls, how is Trump supposedly only losing Hispanic voters by 14 points and almost tied with union workers -historically deep deep blew no matter who parts of the dem base- yet tied or losing in the statewide polls for some of these states?

Markets favor Trump sweep: 'most bullish outcome'

Quote:

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The most bearish scenario for US analysts would be a sweep for Kamala Harris's Democratic party, although the survey showed a modest tilt of opinions for all outcomes. Strategists said that reflected how difficult it is to accurately assess the potential impact of policy ideas, a big focus for Wall Street as the two candidates are close in polls with just over a month to go.

"Our survey results point to a Trump win as a possible short-term positive for stocks, and a Democratic sweep scenario as a possible short-term negative," said RBC strategists led by Lori Calvasina. "However, the survey results also add to our growing belief that the thing that may matter most for US equities (for 2024 at least) is simply getting past the event so that companies, and investors, know what they are dealing with."

---

Uh oh:

Right Direction - today (9/23):

Republicans - 21% (17%)

Democrats - 56% (60%)

— Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports (@Mark_R_Mitchell) October 1, 2024

Kamala Harris should totally listen to failed sports handicappers-turned failed election "modelers"... and spend a bunch of money in Florida. https://t.co/ntsOEl2V0X

— Rich Baris The People's Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) October 2, 2024

#New general Election Poll - Wisconsin

🔴 Trump 47% (+1)
🔵 Harris 46%

Trafalgar #C - LV - 9/30

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 2, 2024

Senate ballots:

WI
Baldwin 49
Hovde 47

MI
Slotkin 50
Rogers 46

PA
Casey 52
McCormick 45

NV
Rosen 53
Brown 40

AZ
Gallego 54
Lake 41

NC Gov
Stein 59
Robinson 35 https://t.co/ISjb8TCK6U

— Jessica Taylor (@JessicaTaylor) October 2, 2024

Waffledynamics said:

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I don't understand how that makes any sense whatsoever.

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Abortion and unmarried women voters.

jr15aggie said:

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Looking at the polls on this thread and things I've seen elsewhere... Ohio is so interesting. It's been such a coveted & contested state since I've been alive (Carter & Reagan Years).

Trump could potentially win it by double digits in '24. That's wild. It's always been a battleground state but it looks like several people "experts" feel like the battle is over before it even began this year.

---

It's a reflection of the 2016 gradual migration of more blue collar towards republicans and more white collar towards democrats.

WISCONSIN UPDATE

WISCONSIN is hard to poll with the average polling miss being 6% on the Dem side in 2020. And unlike Pennsylvania, there is no voter registration by party. The polls were also way off in 2016.

The NYT/Siena poll, which had Biden +11 in 2020 (10-pt miss) now has…

— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 2, 2024

rgag12 said:

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jr15aggie said:

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Looking at the polls on this thread and things I've seen elsewhere... Ohio is so interesting. It's been such a coveted & contested state since I've been alive (Carter & Reagan Years).

Trump could potentially win it by double digits in '24. That's wild. It's always been a battleground state but it looks like several people "experts" feel like the battle is over before it even began this year.

---

It's a reflection of the 2016 gradual migration of more blue collar towards republicans and more white collar towards democrats.

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I forgot that Vance is from Ohio when I posted this... yeah just go ahead and color Ohio red, it's over.

will25u said:

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WISCONSIN UPDATE

WISCONSIN is hard to poll with the average polling miss being 6% on the Dem side in 2020. And unlike Pennsylvania, there is no voter registration by party. The polls were also way off in 2016.

The NYT/Siena poll, which had Biden +11 in 2020 (10-pt miss) now has…

— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 2, 2024

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for those that don't want to click to see the rest of the text content:

Quote:

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WISCONSIN UPDATE

WISCONSIN is hard to poll with the average polling miss being 6% on the Dem side in 2020. And unlike Pennsylvania, there is no voter registration by party. The polls were also way off in 2016.

The NYT/Siena poll, which had Biden +11 in 2020 (10-pt miss) now has Harris +2. The RCP average for multi-candidate has Harris +1.2% and head-to-head is 0.5%.

The two most accurate pollsters in 2020 for WISCONSIN have recent polling.

Last night Trafalgar Group dropped a Trump +1.1% in WISC. In 2020, Trafalgar was nearly perfect having Biden +0.4% when the official result was Biden +0.7%. Only a 0.3% miss!

Recently, Atlas Intel dropped a Trump +1.4% in WISC. In 2020 Atlas Intel had Biden +1.9% and thus was only off 1.2% on the Biden side. That they now show a Trump lead is significant.

In 2020, Emerson, had Biden +8 but on Sept 21 has Trump +1%. Rasmussen Reports has a tie.

Our estimate is that we are probably looking at a Trump +1% in WISC, perhaps a tick more. If the polling misses on the Dem side in WISC continue the Trump lead could be more.

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#New General election poll

Arizona - 🔵 Harris+2
Michigan - 🔵 Harris +3
Nevada - 🔵 Harris +1
Pennsylvania - 🔵 Harris +1
Wisconsin - 🔵 Harris +2
North Carolina - 🟡 Tie
Georgia - 🔴 Trump +2

BSG #B - LV - 9/25

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 2, 2024

From Scott Rasmussen's firm

#NEW TEXAS SENATE poll

🔴 Cruz: 50% (+3)
🔵 Allred: 47%

RMG | Sept. 25-27 | N=779LV

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 2, 2024

#NEW NATIONAL poll

🔵 Harris: 48% (+3)
🔴 Trump: 45%
🟡 Undecided: 4%

YouGov & Economist | Sept. 29-Oct. 1 | N=1,638RV

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 2, 2024

#NEW NATIONAL poll

🔵 Harris: 48% (+4) [-2]
🔴 Trump: 44% [=]

[+/- from Sept. 22]

Ipsos | Sept. 25-30 | N=1,313LV

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 2, 2024

#NEW FLORIDA poll

PRESIDENT:
🔴 Trump: 51% (+5)
🔵 Harris: 46%

SENATE:
🔴 Scott: 51% (+7)
🔵 Mucarsel-Powell: 44%

McLaughlin | Sept. 23-25 | N=1,200LV

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 2, 2024

#NEW MICHIGAN poll

🔴 Trump: 47% (+2)
🔵 Harris: 45%@trafalgar_group | Sept. 28-30 | N=1,086LV pic.twitter.com/d2FFp9U7zN

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 2, 2024

#NEW MICHIGAN SENATE poll

🔵 Slotkin: 47% (=)
🔴 Rogers: 47%
🟡 Undecided: 6%@trafalgar_group | Sept. 28-30 | N=1,086LV pic.twitter.com/1B01SUHRDE

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 2, 2024

I am starting to feel vindicated about Michigan, at this point. Hopefully Trafalgar is right about all 3:

New state results from @trafalgar_group - Michigan

RR - Trafalgar this week so far ...
PA: RR Tie Race - Trafalgar Trump +3
WI: RR Tie Race - Trafalgar Trump +1
MI: RR Harris +1 - Trafalgar Trump +2 https://t.co/CxPVOtEUls pic.twitter.com/yofBLYTdJm

— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) October 2, 2024

#New General election poll - Wisconsin

🔵 Harris 52% (+4)
🔴 Trump 48%

Marquette #A - 790 LV - 9/26

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 2, 2024

Redstate: tiers of national polls and a breakdown to senate races. This is logical and well reasoned, to me.

Quote:

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The national polling is also very important for the Senate races. There are now three scenarios, or tiers, for the polling. Tier 1 polls have Kamala Harris up by more than 3 points, including Reuters, Morning Consult, CBS, NBC, and Yahoo. Tier 2 polls have her and Donald Trump in a statistical dead heat, including Quinnipiac, CNN, Rasmussen, Fox, Harris X, and Siena. Tier 3 has Trump up by 3 or more, and is Gallup and Atlas Intel. (Gallup refuses to give us actual head-to-head numbers, because they stopped doing that in 2012. However, it can be figured out from what they do give us.)

---

…

Quote:

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So, this leaves us with either the Tier 2 or 3 polls depicting the correct environment. Atlas Intel, Gallup and Siena have excellent reputations; the other polling firms are more mixed.

If the race ends with a close popular margin, like the Tier 2 polls indicate, then it could be similar to what happened in 1968. That year, the out-party Republican won 43.4 percent of the presidential vote to 42.7 percent for the Democrat vice president (with a strong third-party candidate taking from both sides), and a pick-up of 5 Senate Republican seats. But that same year, the GOP did win a convincing electoral college victory. And indeed, as I have said many times before, the Republicans have the edge in the Electoral College this year as well. If the race ends in a dead heat, Donald Trump will carry most of the battleground states and win the presidency.

If the race ends with a solid Trump popular lead, like the Tier 3 polls indicate, then it could be similar to what happened in 1980 and 2008. In 1980, the out-party Republican won the presidency 51 percent to 41 percent, and the GOP picked up 12 Senate seats. In 2008, the out-party Democrat won 53 percent to 46 percent, and the Democrats won 8 Senate seats.

But in all three of these elections, the out-party won big in the U.S. Senate. They picked up 5 in 1968, 12 in 1980, and 8 in 2008. Further, in these and all other Senate races, the party with the momentum (the "Big Mo") wins a disproportionate number of the Senate elections.

---

We will see…more at the link.

🇺🇲 National poll: @SusquehannaPR

🟦 Kamala Harris: 49%
🟥 Donald Trump: 44%

#66 (2.3/3.0) | 9/23-10/1 | 1,001 LV | ±3.2 pic.twitter.com/IfWcYCxsoP

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 2, 2024

Is the house still expected to flip per polling?

The house will be very narrow either way. I haven't seen any polls indicating either side is likely to have a 20+ seat majority (which historically would be a small one).

A lot of seats, and most House race polls are pretty small (under 500 LV) so it's really pretty tough to project. If I had to swag it, I'd say GOP goes to a 10 seat majority, which is what RCP has right now.