Muh Polls

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Waffledynamics
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9:53p, 9/30/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 10:18p, 9/30/24
AG
Just so it's clear, these are model forecasts from CBS, not polls.
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nortex97
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In reply to normalhorn • 4:52a, 10/1/24
AG
normalhorn said:
Rasmussen was pumping up some big news to be expected this week. Surely this isn't it, is it?
No, they haven't released anything dramatic, not sure on that. Their only 'dramatic' headline I've seen is the Democrats collapsing a bit in NJ/NY, but not enough to really put them in play.

Great polling analyses; Dems losing around a quarter percent/day, and highlights the silliness of Bloomberg (Morning Insult) distorting the average with their Harris+5 PA poll.


Good news; GOP El Niño.
Quote:
For the past 10 days, RCP had given Pennsylvania to Kamala Harris by a whisker, and that was enough for her to get to 276 EV's. Several polls, 10 of the last 11, in fact, dating back to mid-September, have the race either tied or Trump up anywhere from 1 to 3 points. Only Bloomberg's outlier poll of Harris +5 is keeping Pennsylvania's RCP current average at Trump +0.2. With each passing week, Harris' chances are fading coming down the stretch. Keep in mind that all of these polls had an average of 4.6% miss rate in favor of the Democrat last cycle. If Trump is ahead now in those polls even by a little bit, with their error rate, he's probably ahead outside of margin of error when everything is counted. Even without Nevada, Michigan or Wisconsin, if Trump wins Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and now Pennsylvania, which are all increasingly likely as more polls are released, it's game over for Harris.

In Michigan, what was thought to be Kamala Harris' safest bet among the seven swing states, Atlas Intel, the most accurate polling outfit in the last couple cycles, came out with a survey over the weekend that has Trump now up 4. Before you write that off as an outlier of its own, take this into consideration. Elissa Slotkin, the Democratic Congresswoman locked in a dogfight with Republican Mike Rogers for the open Senate seat in the Wolverine State, said this on a donor call about her own internal polling.
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nortex97
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5:15a, 10/1/24
AG




Happy election is just next month day.
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Barnyard96
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In reply to normalhorn • 6:43a, 10/1/24
AG
normalhorn said:
Rasmussen was pumping up some big news to be expected this week. Surely this isn't it, is it?


Is it the dominion news they tweeted? There's another thread on it

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3494366
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Captn_Ag05
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7:33a, 10/1/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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7:33a, 10/1/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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7:34a, 10/1/24
AG
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nortex97
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 8:17a, 10/1/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
This one is more interesting than some others, even if a week old, for being a bipartisan one with Fabrizio Ward involved:
Quote:
Biden was down 5 percentage points overall in that April survey. Among voters aged 18 to 49, he was behind by 1 point; she is now ahead by 14. He was losing independents by 6 points; she is winning them by 9. With Democrats, women, suburban voters, rural voters and even voters without a college degree, she is outperforming Biden.

There is a major voting bloc, though, among which she has slipped: seniors. Harris is losing voters aged 65 and older by 7 points, compared with 1 point for Biden.

"Harris' biggest weakness is older voters. It is the biggest share of the electorate, and she is behind," said Republican pollster Bob Ward, whose firm, Fabrizio Ward, helped conduct the AARP survey and also polls for the Trump campaign.

The economy appears to be a big reason why older voters prefer Trump to Harris. For voters aged 50 and up who ranked inflation and high prices as a top issue, Trump has a 54-point lead.

Jeffrey Liszt, a Democratic pollster whose firm Impact Research joined Ward's to conduct the AARP survey, said Harris' greatest challenge is the fact that Trump's retrospective job rating is higher than hers. And "a big piece of that is the economy," he said.
…
Quote:
The gender gap in the poll is eye-popping and in line with other surveys that show a wide divergence between men and women's vote preference in the presidential race. Harris leads among women by 19 points, while Trump is ahead with men by 16 points. However, among women voters aged 50 and older, the candidates are tied.

In addition to the presidential election, AARP also surveyed other statewide races, including the Senate contest, where Democratic incumbent Bob Casey leads GOP challenger Dave McCormick 49 percent to 45 percent among likely voters.

The poll also found close races for a pair of down-ballot elections: for state attorney general and state treasurer.

The AARP survey interviewed 1,398 likely voters, including an oversample of 470 likely voters aged 50 and up. The margin of error among overall likely voters is plus or minus 4 percentage points. For those voters 50 and up, it is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
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McInnis 03
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8:27a, 10/1/24
AG
A commentary on the polls: "Harris is losing ground with" and then insert "Blacks", "Hispanics", "Seniors", "youth"....or whatever......yet they continue to show slim margins in her favor in the same sentence. I've never followed polling as much as I have this cycle and I'm pretty much certain that it's less valuable than a rookie weather person.
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RED AG 98
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 8:30a, 10/1/24
AG
Question -- the #C at the end of this post, and the #B in your post above on the AARP poll of PA -- are these pollster grades or something else? And if so grades by whom? I follow this thread but not really polling anywhere else. TIA.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to RED AG 98 • 9:04a, 10/1/24
AG
Yes that is the grade of how they did in 2020 and 2022 compared to actual results.
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Captn_Ag05
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9:04a, 10/1/24
AG
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RED AG 98
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 9:06a, 10/1/24
AG
Gracias. Thank you sir. Really appreciate all the info you and others are providing here.
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Captn_Ag05
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9:10a, 10/1/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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9:16a, 10/1/24
AG
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lead
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In reply to nortex97 • 9:19a, 10/1/24
But I just read a CNN article that said Kamala is doing better with the olds to make up for the losses in minorities…

I love numbers, stats, etc so I want to geek out on all of this, but it seems less meaningful than ever even though we have more data.
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nortex97
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In reply to lead • 9:30a, 10/1/24
AG
There's more and more data late in the cycle, publicly, but you have to really put in some effort to sift out the garbage/noise to really 'get it.' Just my two cents, and I do understand/respect why folks who don't really look into this much, can quickly get overwhelmed/throw hands up and say 'it's all crap!'

I don't think it is, but I have personal/professional reasons for disagreeing.
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Captn_Ag05
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9:33a, 10/1/24
AG
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lead
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9:34a, 10/1/24
https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/news/cnn%E2%80%99s-harry-enten-says-kamala-harris-headed-for-%E2%80%98worst-democratic-performance-in-a-generation%E2%80%99-among-union-voters/vi-AA1rwWye?t=0
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txags92
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In reply to nortex97 • 9:35a, 10/1/24
AG
nortex97 said:
There's more and more data late in the cycle, publicly, but you have to really put in some effort to sift out the garbage/noise to really 'get it.' Just my two cents, and I do understand/respect why folks who don't really look into this much, can quickly get overwhelmed/throw hands up and say 'it's all crap!'

I don't think it is, but I have personal/professional reasons for disagreeing.
The polls can say what they want, but the demographic trends underlying them seem to point to a huge loss for Kamala. I don't see how any reputable polling outfit can see Trump getting +/- 20% of the Black vote and +/-40% of the Latino vote while Kamala is showing weaker support among the young and the elderly and think that points to a toss up.

ETA: The linked article right above this post points out another two democratic constituencies that Kamala is losing ground on. Where is the support coming from to overcome all these different losses she is stacking up? There wouldn't seem to be enough suburban white women to overcome the loss of ground in all these other demographics.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 9:39a, 10/1/24
AG
Compared to this point in 2016, Trump is doing slightly better in the national average
  • He is doing more than 3 points better in Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, and Florida
  • He is going slightly better (less than 3 points) in Pennsylvania and North Carolina
  • He is doing worse in Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona
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Captn_Ag05
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9:42a, 10/1/24
AG
Compared to this point in 2020, Trump is doing significantly better in the national average

  • He is doing more than 3 points better in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, and Florida
  • He is going slightly better (less than 3 points) in North Carolina and Georgia
  • He is doing worse in no states
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Corporal Punishment
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In reply to lead • 9:42a, 10/1/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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11:23a, 10/1/24
AG


Small bump for Harris since their poll last month

Trump leads with these voters on who will do better on the top four issues but then still trails the head to head.


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Waffledynamics
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:46a, 10/1/24
AG
I don't understand how that makes any sense whatsoever.
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agsalaska
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 12:00p, 10/1/24
AG
Any real answer to that would lead to a massive derail of the thread
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.



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Captn_Ag05
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12:02p, 10/1/24
AG


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Captn_Ag05
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1:14p, 10/1/24
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Captn_Ag05
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1:15p, 10/1/24
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Captn_Ag05
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1:15p, 10/1/24
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Artorias
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 1:28p, 10/1/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
This from Qpac is interesting, as they are typically more Dem leaning in their polls, I believe?
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Artorias • 1:48p, 10/1/24
AG
Artorias said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
This from Qpac is interesting, as they are typically more Dem leaning in their polls, I believe?
Yes. Also, their last NC poll had Harris up 3, now down 2. 5 point swing.
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Quo Vadis?
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2:16p, 10/1/24
I wonder if the hurricane pissed off Georgians and Carolinians. That's a huge swing
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nortex97
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2:18p, 10/1/24
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