Muh Polls

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SwigAg11
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 1:20p, 9/29/24
AG
PA being slightly in Harris's favor is buoyed by that Bloomberg pool (which I believe is just the Morning Consult poll) that has been a really poor poll in the past.
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Old McDonald
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In reply to nortex97 • 1:52p, 9/29/24
nortex97 said:
I appreciate it but that all doesn't make much sense at all to me. Rasmussen maybe they are using an algorithm for R Bias but they were most accurate in 2016-2020. Having an algorithm doesn't mean the algorithm is right.
how accurate were they in 2022? i don't suspect rasmussen is deliberately skewing their polls to have an R-leaning house effect, but it's important to note that past accuracy is not on its own an indicator of future accuracy, and an accurate poll can still be low quality and vice versa.
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TRM
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In reply to nortex97 • 2:29p, 9/29/24
AG
Are there crosstabs on that poll? Specifically something related to this, language used in the household a majority of the time. Majority English-speaking Hispanic households lean more conservative. Majority Spanish-speaking Hispanic households are heavily Democratic.
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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to Old McDonald • 2:41p, 9/29/24
Old McDonald said:
nortex97 said:
I appreciate it but that all doesn't make much sense at all to me. Rasmussen maybe they are using an algorithm for R Bias but they were most accurate in 2016-2020. Having an algorithm doesn't mean the algorithm is right.
how accurate were they in 2022? i don't suspect rasmussen is deliberately skewing their polls to have an R-leaning house effect, but it's important to note that past accuracy is not on its own an indicator of future accuracy, and an accurate poll can still be low quality and vice versa.


I don't think it's fair to include non-presidential election years to presidential cycles. It is much harder to predict turnout in non-presidential election contests.

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Ag with kids
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 2:48p, 9/29/24
AG
Quo Vadis? said:
Old McDonald said:
nortex97 said:
I appreciate it but that all doesn't make much sense at all to me. Rasmussen maybe they are using an algorithm for R Bias but they were most accurate in 2016-2020. Having an algorithm doesn't mean the algorithm is right.
how accurate were they in 2022? i don't suspect rasmussen is deliberately skewing their polls to have an R-leaning house effect, but it's important to note that past accuracy is not on its own an indicator of future accuracy, and an accurate poll can still be low quality and vice versa.


I don't think it's fair to include non-presidential election years to presidential cycles. It is much harder to predict turnout in non-presidential election contests.

There were also a lot of abortion bills up for a vote, which increased normal turnout AND skewed it towards the left with all the women voting for increased abortions.
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Quo Vadis?
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3:44p, 9/29/24
https://www.axios.com/2024/09/29/michigan-senate-race-slotkin-harris

Michigan Rep Slotkin says Harris is underwater in Michigan in internal polls.

I have heard that some insiders from the Harris campaign might be telegraphing her impending loss and the focus to Texas and Florida to "hold the senate" might be a part of that
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to Hungry Ojos • 4:15p, 9/29/24
AG
What's deflating?
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Hungry Ojos
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 4:20p, 9/29/24
Philip J Fry said:
What's deflating?


56.3% - Harris (of winning)
vs.
43.5% - Trump

What could possibly be positive about that?
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nortex97
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In reply to Hungry Ojos • 4:24p, 9/29/24
AG
The fact that he has over-weighted morning consult (and other trash polls), and under-weighted Rasmussen yet this is a 5 or 6 point swing back toward Trump's odds vs. just a few days ago in his model (he had Cackling Commie up around 62).
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to Hungry Ojos • 4:26p, 9/29/24
AG
Guess you've decided to not read the post and the numbers behind it. Carry on.
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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to Hungry Ojos • 4:30p, 9/29/24
Hungry Ojos said:
Philip J Fry said:
What's deflating?


56.3% - Harris (of winning)
vs.
43.5% - Trump

What could possibly be positive about that?


I didn't trust silver's % when it said he was 4 to 1 on Kamala, and I don't trust it now. He's trending great on all decent polls
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JDUB08AG
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4:33p, 9/29/24
AG
Sometimes the obvious answer is right in front of you. Until I see some more indicators that they learned to accurately poll trump, none of these numbers are good for Harris. If the pollsters figured it out, good for them, but I am very skeptical.
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nortex97
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In reply to JDUB08AG • 4:36p, 9/29/24
AG
Correct. Polls, and win probabilities using them, should always be taken/studied/interpreted in context, vs. previous cycles and polls/trends etc. Things like Hezbollah being decapitated also won't help Democrats with polls in Michigan moving forward.

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Barnyard96
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4:49p, 9/29/24
AG
Harris now under 49 in Michigan

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nortex97
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5:10p, 9/29/24
AG


Same Dem pollster had Robert Francis O'Rourke winning, fyi.
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Captn_Ag05
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7:23p, 9/29/24
AG
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AtticusMatlock
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1:32a, 9/30/24
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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 1:34a, 9/30/24
Not sure about Florida, but the Democrats have been trying to flip the Cruz seat in Texas for a long time. It's not a new focus at all.
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nortex97
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4:19a, 9/30/24
AG




Sounds like Slotkin is concerned about being pulled down by Harris as well in her race.

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Captn_Ag05
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8:32a, 9/30/24
AG


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Captn_Ag05
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8:33a, 9/30/24
AG
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Old McDonald
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8:53a, 9/30/24
it's interesting to see trump poll ahead of down ballot republicans after it being the opposite the previous two elections. supports the theory that trump has an advantage with low-engagement and low-propensity voters this time around and turnout will be key to his success.
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Captn_Ag05
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9:10a, 9/30/24
AG
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McInnis 03
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10:22a, 9/30/24
AG
North Carolina may get interesting now that the western half of the state has been decimated and it may affect certain residents ability or even desire to get to the polls in a month.
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Captn_Ag05
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12:19p, 9/30/24
AG
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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 12:26p, 9/30/24
McInnis 03 said:
North Carolina may get interesting now that the western half of the state has been decimated and it may affect certain residents ability or even desire to get to the polls in a month.
Apart from the one county that contains Asheville, it was pro-Trump areas hit hardest.
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/north-carolina/
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IDaggie06
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In reply to AtticusMatlock • 2:27p, 9/30/24
AG
AtticusMatlock said:
McInnis 03 said:
North Carolina may get interesting now that the western half of the state has been decimated and it may affect certain residents ability or even desire to get to the polls in a month.
Apart from the one county that contains Asheville, it was pro-Trump areas hit hardest.
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/north-carolina/
Yup it is HARDCORE Trump territory except for Ashville which, even though it's the largest county around the impacted areas, it doesn't come close to offsetting the other counties (based on 2020 election results). Not good news but hopefully the Trumpers are able to fnd a way to vote in 5 weeks. i assume the voting locations in the efffected areas are largely run by republcans so im sure they will do whatever they can. North Carolina is too important. Will be interesting how this affects the NC polls in the next week or so.
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oh no
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In reply to IDaggie06 • 3:07p, 9/30/24
AG
The AtlasIntel poll tweet above has Trump winning the EC by winning all three of the blue wall states but losing NC. Very interesting. NC becomes less important if there's polling confidence in WI, MI, and PA ..but GA is polling too close and it feels like NC is going to be too important. All three of the blue wall will never seem likely to me no matter what polls are showing; we've seen the pictures from Wayne Co MI last time and PA already announced their plan to keep counting after election day until predetermined results are achieved again. What did AtlasIntel's last poll look like?
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to nortex97 • 3:14p, 9/30/24
I was about to post on Michigan. People are worried about PA, but Trump is quietly progressing to undoubtably win Michigan. Biden was up 6.1 going in and only won by 2.78%. Harris average lead is 1.2

Yall do the math. Also they're not going to have a 71% turnout like in 2020. Which party do y'all think benefited more from the 2020 mass mail ballots sent to everyone?
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nortex97
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3:32p, 9/30/24
AG
MI and PA are both razor tight right now, but if you asked either side which hand they'd rather have, it would be the GOP in each case. None of the trend lines/poll trends favor the Dems there.
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aggiehawg
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3:53p, 9/30/24
AG


FWIW.
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rathAG05
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In reply to aggiehawg • 3:58p, 9/30/24
AG
Rasmussen tells me what I want to hear 90% of the time. I damn sure hope their polling is accurate.
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normalhorn
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In reply to aggiehawg • 4:01p, 9/30/24
Rasmussen was pumping up some big news to be expected this week. Surely this isn't it, is it?
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Quo Vadis?
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5:33p, 9/30/24


Trump lost NY by 23% in 2020
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Waffledynamics
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8:29p, 9/30/24
AG
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