Muh Polls

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Captn_Ag05
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8:27a, 9/25/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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8:27a, 9/25/24
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Captn_Ag05
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8:28a, 9/25/24
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Captn_Ag05
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8:46a, 9/25/24
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nortex97
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 9:08a, 9/25/24
AG
The top line is good but the Latino vote there is absolutely incredible.
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will25u
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 9:14a, 9/25/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
First two things that jump out to me about this poll that makes it pretty useless.

1 - 400LV? Ridiculously small pool.
2 - 49/39 D/R ratio? Absurd. Even weighted, it is absurd.

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will25u
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9:19a, 9/25/24
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 9:48a, 9/25/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
Glad Texas is trending in the right direction, but I am not happy that Cruz and the state GOP are not actively trying to expand the base and keep Texas Red.

We cannot become Arizona or better description, Georgia.
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SouthTex99
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9:59a, 9/25/24
AG
Every road to 270 goes through Pennsylvania. And I just don't know there's enough rural left in PA to overcome the cities. Republicans need more urban support if they are going to win elections moving forward.
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will25u
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10:16a, 9/25/24
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Rockdoc
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In reply to will25u • 10:39a, 9/25/24
AG
I'm rather surprised at that.
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nortex97
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11:21a, 9/25/24
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Captn_Ag05
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1:01p, 9/25/24
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aggiehawg
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3:53p, 9/25/24
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That's got to hurt Kamala. So what economic nonsense will she release today might change any of that?
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agsalaska
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4:01p, 9/25/24
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Anyone else getting the feeling that this race is about to turn. A lot of times you see the turns in the crosstabs data bvefore you see it in the totals. I feel like we are about to see an overall shift towards Trump nationally and in the Swing States. It may have already started with the last few polls.
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.

Elko is a loser and we will be buying him out for some obscene amount of money in two years. - Agsalaska

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Drahknor03
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4:12p, 9/25/24
AG
Several pollsters have been saying they're seeing signs of Kamala collapse. It's going to come down to turnout machines, but I think Trump is going to have a slight edge in total support.
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4stringAg
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4:17p, 9/25/24
AG
I think people are motivated to vote for Trump AND vote against Kamala. All the left has is motivation to vote against him, not for Kamala. I think that shows up in turnout this year.
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FireAg
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4:28p, 9/25/24
AG
People are tired of high prices…
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aggiehawg
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4:32p, 9/25/24
AG


CBS Poll?
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normalhorn
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4:32p, 9/25/24
As much as I'd like to subscribe to the belief that there's a growing undercurrent silently backing Trump, I've ventured over to liberal-heavy online threads and have seen similar conversation threads with building confidence surrounding Harris' odds of winning. Some going so far as to say their polls they reference have a Reagan-esque blowout, like Harris sweeping every swing state and stealing Florida.
Most of my mind wants to subscribe that to fearmongering, but some of it is genuine concern that we're looking at and holding on to poor data metrics that are leading us down a path of disappointment
TLDR: I'm ready for the election to be over and for Trump to get back to righting the ship again
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agsalaska
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In reply to normalhorn • 4:46p, 9/25/24
AG
normalhorn said:
As much as I'd like to subscribe to the belief that there's a growing undercurrent silently backing Trump, I've ventured over to liberal-heavy online threads and have seen similar conversation threads with building confidence surrounding Harris' odds of winning. Some going so far as to say their polls they reference have a Reagan-esque blowout, like Harris sweeping every swing state and stealing Florida.
Most of my mind wants to subscribe that to fearmongering, but some of it is genuine concern that we're looking at and holding on to poor data metrics that are leading us down a path of disappointment
TLDR: I'm ready for the election to be over and for Trump to get back to righting the ship again



Right or wrong I think I am pretty objective looking at these things and I don't see how anyone on the left can be excited about anything beyond maybe the aggregate national poll. If they are it is just feel good stuff not backed by any data again beyond the national number. Almost everything else is trending away from them. Maybe, maybe if the election was tomorrow but it's not for another six weeks.

These trend lines were working for Trump in 2016, against him in 2020, and against the right during the 2022 midterms. I think anyone being objective knew what was happening both years.
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.

Elko is a loser and we will be buying him out for some obscene amount of money in two years. - Agsalaska

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Drahknor03
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In reply to normalhorn • 4:49p, 9/25/24
AG
There is not a single sign that Harris is running away with anything. It's close. Probably tied. If Harris wins it will be the closest election since 2000.
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sam callahan
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5:05p, 9/25/24
There is no way that 6% of the people that plan on voting in this race are undecided at this point.

They are just embarrassed about admitting who they plan to vote for.

Question is how much of that is Kamala and how much is Trump?
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normalhorn
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5:08p, 9/25/24
[We've been clear in prior staff notes that this thread is for a discussion on polls and posters trying to understand what they mean. It is not a thread for personal opinions on who's going to win a race, personal projections of the electoral college map, or statements about why one candidate is better or worse than the other. You are free to explore those topics on other existing threads or to start a new one. We're not going to debate the moderation of this thread on this thread either. We're trying to keep it free of derails so that readers and posters can engage on the original topic of the thread -- Staff]
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Noctilucent
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5:19p, 9/25/24
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[Calling out moderation won't get you anywhere but a ban -- Staff]
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normalhorn
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5:23p, 9/25/24
I'll rephrase a previous post.

Rasmussen seems to hold a good opinion as a poll that goes against the aggregate data like Nate Silver's does.
Which polls do you all see Democrats putting a lot of stock into, that also aren't aggregated?
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Captn_Ag05
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5:44p, 9/25/24
AG




With Senate polls

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Captn_Ag05
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5:49p, 9/25/24
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Old McDonald
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In reply to sam callahan • 6:01p, 9/25/24
sam callahan said:
There is no way that 6% of the people that plan on voting in this race are undecided at this point.

They are just embarrassed about admitting who they plan to vote for.

Question is how much of that is Kamala and how much is Trump?
if anything the share of undecideds is smaller at this point compared to recent cycles. people always focus on the net headline (i.e. trump +3) and not on the totals, but in 2016 and 2020 many polls had a "shy Trump voter effect" where as much as 10+% of the responders were "undecided" and the vast majority broke to trump in the booth.

my guess is there's not as much stigma to being a trump voter these days, hence the smaller undecided shares.
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outofstateaggie
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6:18p, 9/25/24
AG
Quote:


Has the AZ senate race tightened? Last numbers I saw showed a pretty big deficit for Lake.
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Drahknor03
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In reply to outofstateaggie • 6:41p, 9/25/24
AG
It was always going to be a single digit race. Lots of Rs coming home.
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Barnyard96
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In reply to outofstateaggie • 7:17p, 9/25/24
AG

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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to outofstateaggie • 7:28p, 9/25/24
Rasmussen.
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2023NCAggies
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11:22p, 9/25/24
[Stop derailing this thread from a conversation on polls. We're done simply removing your derails. Automatic bans if you continue -- Staff]
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Captn_Ag05
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11:50p, 9/25/24
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