Muh Polls

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Drahknor03
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 5:48a, 9/15/24
AG
DM Register had Trump and Biden tied in September of 2020. It didn't have Trump +7 until right before the election. Trump won by 8.
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nortex97
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 6:01a, 9/15/24
AG
I don't really think it's 'good' news by any stretch but that is really contingent on big turnout among women in Iowa and there aren't a lot of persuadable folks left to actually shift it to the communist column from what I read:

Quote:
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has abandoned his independent presidential campaign but will remain on the Iowa ballot, gets 6% of the vote. That's down from 9% in June.

Another 1% pick Libertarian presidential candidate Chase Oliver, 1% say they would vote for someone else and 1% are not sure.

The poll puts the race more closely in line with the 2020 election results, which ultimately saw Trump win Iowa by about 8 percentage points over Biden.

It also shows a sharp divide between men and women likely voters Trump leads with men 59% to 32% over Harris. And Harris leads with women 53% to 36%.
Quote:
Harris is viewed favorably by 43% of Iowa adults and unfavorably by 54%, while 3% are not sure.

That's about on par with Trump, who is viewed favorably by 48% of Iowans and unfavorably by 51%, with another 2% who are not sure.
She's not winning Iowa, imho, is more unpopular than Trump, and the good news remains his lead with independents, across pretty much every poll;
Quote:
Independent Iowa voters lean toward Trump

Trump and Harris each get strong majorities of support from their party bases.
Republican likely voters support Trump over Harris 94% to 2%. And likely Democratic voters support Harris over Trump 95% to 2%.

Independent voters lean toward Trump, with 41% supporting him and 36% supporting Harris.
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Quo Vadis?
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6:17a, 9/15/24
Yeah seems like not as bad as I thought. For some reason I thought her September poll was the last one she did, and that one showed Trump +7 over Biden
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Captn_Ag05
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9:45a, 9/15/24
AG
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sanangelo
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9:57a, 9/15/24
AG
[The financial shape of the Republican party in Texas is a derail from this thread on polls. You are encouraged to tee up the topic for further discussion but please start a different thread. Thanks -- Staff]
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nortex97
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10:33a, 9/15/24
AG
Hovde vs. Tammy Baldwin is a closer race than I'd have thought. She's a stealthy, highly dishonest operator even by Senate standards, including with her partner. As usual, Dems are outspending the GOP candidate 2:1, but I'm cautiously optimistic Hovde pulls this one out in November.
Quote:
Another Democratic line of attack alleges that Sunwest Bank holds $188 million in deposits from foreign governments whose identity Mr. Hovde refuses to reveal. Mr. Hovde's campaign has responded by noting that Ms. Baldwin's domestic partner, Maria Brisbane, is a Wall Street financial consultant. The ostensible impropriety, according to a Hovde campaign ad, is that "Tammy regulates the biotech industry. Maria advises clients in the biotech industry. If they were married, they would have to disclose their financial conflicts. But they aren't married, so they can share inside information to get rich."

If this charge has potency, it may be less from the claim of a conflict of interest than from the assertion that Ms. Baldwin spends a fair chunk of her time in New York, where presumably she isn't doing a lot of senatorial work.

Mr. Hovde's campaign seems smartly aimed at winning the Milwaukee suburbs. At a party venue in that city's Saint Joseph neighborhood, he met with a small group of female volunteers associated with the American Cancer Society's lobbying arm, Cancer Action Network. He spoke movingly of his father's 1971 death from prostate cancer and his wife's diagnosis with breast cancer four years ago (she is in remission). In 1991, at 27, Mr. Hovde was diagnosed with multiple sclerosis, suffered years of slow debilitation, and at age 40 found near-total relief from the disease after contracting two parasites in a South American rainforest. Parasites can modulate the immune system and ameliorate autoimmune conditions such as MS.

Thin, 6-foot-2, with a booming voice and lately a hefty 1980s-style mustache, Mr. Hovde tends to dominate the room. But at the cancer roundtable, as the event was termed, he mainly listened, asked pertinent questions of cancer survivors, and had the sense not to talk politics. Several cried as they told him their stories.

A smart campaign run by a gifted retail politician may not be enough to best Ms. Baldwin, whose advantagesapart from the perks of incumbencyinclude an ad campaign that even the "megamillionaire" Mr. Hovde can't match. He said the polls are wrong because, as he told me, Republicans are mostly "private-sector people" who work for a living and don't have time or inclination to yap about politics with a pollster whose intentions they don't trust anyway. It bears remembering, too, that in 2022 Sen. Johnson trailed his opponent by 6 or 7 points in late summer and won in November.
RCP has this as a 5 point race right now, though the highest quality poll I see is the Emerson one a couple weeks back that had it at 1 point. With Trump likely leading in WI, and only something like 3 percent undecided (as in Michigan), where most won't break for Harris/Dems, I think again this will be a sub-1 point race either way.

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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:57a, 9/15/24
Captn_Ag05 said:


What a trash poll. Whites +8 for Trump? Men even? Nope.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 12:14p, 9/15/24
AG
I agree. But it at least showed no post debate bump from their last poll.
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nortex97
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 12:16p, 9/15/24
AG
It's ABC. The folks who employ Muir etc. Their news director introduced Kamala to her husband. I try not to cast stones at individual polls but that one is just absurd.
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Captn_Ag05
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12:29p, 9/15/24
AG


Rasmussen is also Trump plus 2
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Captn_Ag05
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12:32p, 9/15/24
AG


Biden beat Trump by 11 in '20
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MagnumLoad
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12:39p, 9/15/24
All liberal run polls. Meaningless
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to MagnumLoad • 1:14p, 9/15/24
AG
MagnumLoad said:
All liberal run polls. Meaningless
Maybe, or maybe this board wants only conservative-ran polls. We're putting a lot of faith in outliers and hoping they're right.

I'd like to better understand the results instead of just having someone say "ehh it's a liberal poll".
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Captn_Ag05
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1:40p, 9/15/24
AG
Scott Rasmussen's take on this very topic today

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2023NCAggies
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In reply to nortex97 • 2:11p, 9/15/24
That poll is for Minnesota? He's up 3 by an A+ poll?

WTF
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 2:34p, 9/15/24
AG
No, the atlas poll with Trump up 3 is a national poll. Poster put several thoughts in one post. There was a Minnesota poll released last week with Harris only up 4-5.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 2:34p, 9/15/24
There is some good Dem ran polls. And no they all do not show Trump ahead but +1 or +2 and that is believable. 3 is stretching it.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 2:42p, 9/15/24
And with those breakdowns she should be up more than that. Straight gas lighting to manipulate.

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2023NCAggies
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In reply to nortex97 • 2:59p, 9/15/24
He is a good candidate. Rs are strapped for cash. If it was even he'd be tied at least. McCormick is closing in too. PA is trending RED. Lake is at least within 4.

Moreno will likely be carried by Trump but all the new attention on illegals might push him to victory by itself
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 3:02p, 9/15/24
Yeah that one was a pretty bad one for them and embarrassing

You hearing anything about McCormick closing in? I cannot stand Kasey

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MagnumLoad
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 3:31p, 9/15/24
Waffledynamics said:
MagnumLoad said:
All liberal run polls. Meaningless
Maybe, or maybe this board wants only conservative-ran polls. We're putting a lot of faith in outliers and hoping they're right.

I'd like to better understand the results instead of just having someone say "ehh it's a liberal poll".

Most of these polls just showed up.
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nortex97
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3:53p, 9/15/24
AG
Independent margin is significant, and growing.

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texagbeliever
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In reply to nortex97 • 4:19p, 9/15/24
it makes sense for the debate bounce to go Trump.

The fake "big takeaway" was the "concepts of a plan". That story has no legs.

the actual narrative driver: the immigrants are eating cats & dogs.
What does that do, focus attention on immigration and in particular high concentration immigration. A winning issue for Trump.

the secondary narrative driver that could develop: ABC colluded with Harris.
Basically adds more credence to RFK and the need for moderates to turn away from the democratic party.

This is great news
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GenericAggie
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5:15p, 9/15/24
AG
I believe the Dems would want to show that Trump was winning by +2 to keep their base motivated.

I believe the Republicans would want the same situation. Show Harris +2 to keep their base motivated.

I don't believe any of the polls.
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Captn_Ag05
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9:58p, 9/15/24
AG
Harris had by far her best day in the Rasmussen daily tracker today (up 6).

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Rockdoc
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10:16p, 9/15/24
AG
Wonder why that is?
I mean there's no reason for it.
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JDUB08AG
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In reply to Rockdoc • 10:17p, 9/15/24
AG
Rockdoc said:
Wonder why that is?


When you poll daily you get some weird outliers
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Rockdoc • 10:24p, 9/15/24
AG
Rockdoc said:
Wonder why that is?
I mean there's no reason for it.


Statistical noise most likely.

Although idiots on Twitter are calling it the Taylor Swift effect
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Captn_Ag05
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9:12a, 9/16/24
AG


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agracer
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10:11a, 9/16/24
AG
how do all these polls operate financially? They have to employ people to conduct the polls, go thru the data, etc. Who pays for all this?
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Captn_Ag05
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11:38a, 9/16/24
AG
Alaska isn't a state that is polled often, but this is a surprising result. Trump won by over 10 in 2020.

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Drahknor03
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12:44p, 9/16/24
AG
Some "poll data" for this slow Monday:

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Ag with kids
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 12:55p, 9/16/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Harris had by far her best day in the Rasmussen daily tracker today (up 6).

A 12 point swing over a weekend?

Sounds...odd.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Ag with kids • 1:00p, 9/16/24
AG
Ag with kids said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Harris had by far her best day in the Rasmussen daily tracker today (up 6).

A 12 point swing over a weekend?

Sounds...odd.


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Captn_Ag05
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4:01p, 9/16/24
AG


Slow day on the polling front
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