Muh Polls

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Silvertaps
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 10:05p, 9/13/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
GenericAggie said:
There is no way Cruz is only leading by 4


Cruz is up 5, Trump up 9 in Cruz campaign internals.

In regards to Trump, what does that mean? In Texas or nationally?
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Silvertaps • 10:48p, 9/13/24
AG
Yes Texas.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:17p, 9/13/24
You're awesome thanks for the updates and thanks for fighting for us.
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Prosperdick
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11:32p, 9/13/24
AG
We're in 3 proxy wars and people look at Kamala and they don't see a Commander-In-Chief. They see an unserious person who slept her way to where she is now. Ultimately that's driving the poor polling no matter how much they crow about her winning the debate.
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GoAgs11
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 12:47a, 9/14/24
Waffledynamics said:
GenericAggie said:
There is no way Cruz is only leading by 4
He's not running any ads and is letting an extreme Democrat pretend to be conservative.

Yes, I believe it's close, and Cruz needs to campaign.

Wtf is the Republican Party doing?
cruz will win handily
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Sq 17
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1:05a, 9/14/24
Cruz won in '18 by 2.6%
Cruz by 4-5 seems about right
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Prosperdick • 1:14a, 9/14/24
nortex97
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6:02a, 9/14/24
AG


This would be fine by me.
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ts5641
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 6:19a, 9/14/24
New Hampshire just shored up it's election integrity laws by requiring ID to register and requiring photo ID to vote. This should push Trump over the line there.
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ts5641
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In reply to nortex97 • 6:19a, 9/14/24
nortex97 said:


This would be fine by me.
Lord please let it be so!
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Silvertaps
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In reply to ts5641 • 7:05a, 9/14/24
AG
ts5641 said:
nortex97 said:


This would be fine by me.
Lord please let it be so!

Isn't this a bit of exaggeration based on some of the swing state and national polls that have come out the last few days?
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nortex97
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In reply to Silvertaps • 7:23a, 9/14/24
AG
It's Nate Silver's odds of who will win those 7 states based on his algorithms/models using current polls.

Further, the Harris campaign itself sees Trump winning right now based on their data: (Caution, very fake news CNN source, could all just be made up).
Quote:
At a leadership retreat for top aides in Wilmington last week, Jen O'Malley Dillon the campaign chair hired by Joe Biden and retained by Kamala Harris ticked through the battleground states and warned them: the vice president still did not have any one sure path to 270 electoral votes.

Pennsylvania looks rough, though very possible, by their internal numbers before the debate. North Carolina, disappointing Democrats every election for the last 15 years, is feeling better to them this time around than Arizona, which Biden narrowly won four years ago. Nevada and Georgia both seem possible, though depending on the poll, can take a lot of squinting. Michigan and Wisconsin are looking like the best of the bunch for Harris, according to the campaign's internal numbers.

As pumped as Harris aides are about her debate performance earlier this week, they don't think it changed any of that.

That makes for a lot of potential paths to victory based on the current and projected internal data, O'Malley Dillon told them last week, but multiple top aides on the Harris campaign told CNN they fear that if the election were held next Tuesday instead of eight Tuesdays from now, Trump still would be in a good position to win.
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Waffledynamics
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10:53a, 9/14/24
AG
Eric Daugherty always has good news. Consider me skeptical. Who is he, and why is he credible?

Edit: I understand he used Nate Silver's numbers there. I just get a bit skeptical when someone always tells me what I want to hear, kind of like Rasmussen polling.
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TRM
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 11:05a, 9/14/24
AG
Silver is the outlier.

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GoAgs11
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11:19a, 9/14/24
538 one is laughable double digit chance?
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to nortex97 • 11:51a, 9/14/24
Man that pass on Shapiroโ€ฆโ€ฆโ€ฆโ€ฆ.

Working out great. I bet he doesn't give a rats ass if she wins or not. And he shouldn't. It's obvious he's the rising star not her.
McCormick is closing in to. They think they'll lose, and everything that's been thrown at him is not hurting him in POLLING. Just a terrible situation for them. Prayers
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Jeeper79
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 11:54a, 9/14/24
AG
Waffledynamics said:
Eric Daugherty always has good news. Consider me skeptical. Who is he, and why is he credible?

Edit: I understand he used Nate Silver's numbers there. I just get a bit skeptical when someone always tells me what I want to hear, kind of like Rasmussen polling.
Same I'm way more skeptical of good news than bad news. It's only prudent.
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MarkTwain
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12:04p, 9/14/24
Nate Silver is a pragmatic thinker who has that big time poker player mentality. He just reads the numbers and instead of using persuasion modeling techniques he leans on probabilistic and statistical modeling and methods to come up with pretty accurate predictions and should not be dismissed
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aggiehawg
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12:34p, 9/14/24
AG
Who could have seen this coming?

Quote:
The Land of 10,000 Lakes may not have seemed like an electoral battleground when the state's governor got picked for the presidential ticket.

But now it may be a different matter, per a MinnPost-Embold Research poll, which shows the narrowest gap in any Minnesota survey between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, who picked favorite son Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate.

And independent voters are the reason.

Harris leads by just over 4 points, 48.8% to 44.6%, which is an even narrower margin than the 5-point lead she had in a poll a Minnesota TV station released two weeks ago.

A big part of why Trump is so close in a state with a D+7 registration advantage: Independent voters are rallying to him by nearly a 2-to-1 ratio.
Quote:
This survey of 1,616 likely voters was conducted between Sept. 4 and 8, before what looks likely to be the only televised debate between the two major-party candidates.

Regardless, it suggests enthusiasm for Harris isn't what it should be in a state seemingly clinched with the Walz pick.
LINK
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nortex97
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In reply to aggiehawg • 2:12p, 9/14/24
AG
Looking gooder.



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FireAg
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3:20p, 9/14/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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5:03p, 9/14/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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5:03p, 9/14/24
AG
2020's most accurate pollster weighs in

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SwigAg11
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 5:58p, 9/14/24
AG
Do you know if they were the most accurate across-the-board or just in the presidential race?
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 6:09p, 9/14/24
AG
I don't think they polled anything but national presidential race. Their final poll was Biden +4.7 and result was Biden +4.5.
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TexAgs91
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In reply to GenericAggie • 6:14p, 9/14/24
AG
GenericAggie said:
There is no way Cruz is only leading by 4

Texas is a purplish-red state
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kag00
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In reply to TexAgs91 • 6:53p, 9/14/24
AG
TexAgs91 said:
GenericAggie said:
There is no way Cruz is only leading by 4

Texas is a purplish-red state


It's a repeat of Beto where Cruz is doing zero campaigning. He does nothing to stop the momentum.
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OldArmy71
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In reply to kag00 • 8:30p, 9/14/24
AG
I have seen about 20 Allred ads. I have seen one Cruz ad.

If you watched the A&M game today, there were at least two Allred ads, one attacking Cruz, one extolling Allred's creds as a "bipartisan" guy.

ZERO Cruz ads.

I don't get this approach at all, but I remember the last time Cruz did this and damn near lost.
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RED AG 98
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In reply to OldArmy71 • 8:36p, 9/14/24
AG
[Calling out moderation will draw a ban if you continue. Feel free to comment on the thread topic. Occasionally posts get removed if they're a derail or a response to a derail -- Staff]
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JWinTX
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8:41p, 9/14/24
Cruz is just not well liked, but people tend to trust him. I don't have a problem with him at all, but I hear people complain about him thinking and acting like he's the smartest person in the room. To me, he probably is just that. But he's not someone that appeals much to the suburban white woman at allโ€ฆ
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Captn_Ag05
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9:10p, 9/14/24
AG
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newbie11
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In reply to JWinTX • 9:17p, 9/14/24

[No need for the vulgarity. You can make your point without it -- Staff]
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Jack Boyette
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In reply to JWinTX • 9:36p, 9/14/24
JWinTX said:
Cruz is just not well liked, but people tend to trust him. I don't have a problem with him at all, but I hear people complain about him thinking and acting like he's the smartest person in the room. To me, he probably is just that. But he's not someone that appeals much to the suburban white woman at allโ€ฆ


He's the smartest Senator we have. By a mile.
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nortex97
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5:02a, 9/15/24
AG
Minnesota?

Quote:
Are they solid enough, though? Power Line's John Hinderaker noticed this in the results:
Quote:
The poll showed regional divides among likely voters. Harris secured a substantial majority of the vote (73% to Trump's 21%) in Minneapolis and St. Paul, but the candidates are virtually tied in the seven-county metro area excluding Minneapolis and St. Paul. Trump had a more dominant lead (28 percentage points) in Greater Minnesota.
John adds: "If Trump can run anywhere near even in the Twin Cities suburbs, the election in Minnesota will be close." And close might be enough to indicate strength elsewhere. "But if Trump runs close here, and if even the Twin Cities suburbs are open to his message," John concludes, "there are a number of other states that should fall into his column." That would include the Blue Wall states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

And not to be too excited about a single poll result, but Insider Advantage put Trump up 49/48 in Michigan, in a poll taken the day of the debate and the day after. That's the only poll in any battleground state conducted with any post-debate response so far in RCP's aggregation. We may see a post-debate bump for Harris yet, but even the MinnPost's pollster is skeptical about that.


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Quo Vadis?
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5:37a, 9/15/24


Oof this is a VERY bad one for Trump. Selzer is the gold standard of Iowa polling. A June poll vs Biden had Trump +18, this one shows Trump +4
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