Trump's first debate in 2020 was a big disaster, nothing like tonight, and he still almost won. The polls may shift slightly but they'll get tight again near November like they've always down in a Trump election

rgag12 said:

---

Trump's first debate in 2020 was a big disaster, nothing like tonight, and he still almost won. The polls may shift slightly but they'll get tight again near November like they've always down in a Trump election

---

Trumps' first 2020 debate was worse. ALOT worse

DonHenley said:

---

Not looking forward to the polls after this debate

---

I actually think it will be good for Trump

Quo Vadis? said:

---

DonHenley said:

---

Not looking forward to the polls after this debate

---

I actually think it will be good for Trump

---

It's gonna be hard to tell the way they yo-yo every day.

Quo Vadis? said:

---

DonHenley said:

---

Not looking forward to the polls after this debate

---

I actually think it will be good for Trump

---

Please explain your mental gymnastics behind this statement

TheCougarHunter said:

---

Quo Vadis? said:

---

DonHenley said:

---

Not looking forward to the polls after this debate

---

I actually think it will be good for Trump

---

Please explain your mental gymnastics behind this statement

---

The takeaway from this debate will be the moderator bias against Trump. We didn't learn anything about the candidates that we didn't already know, what was exposed is the gigantic machine that is behind Harris. People don't like being gaslit

Quo Vadis? said:

---

TheCougarHunter said:

---

Quo Vadis? said:

---

DonHenley said:

---

Not looking forward to the polls after this debate

---

I actually think it will be good for Trump

---

Please explain your mental gymnastics behind this statement

---

The takeaway from this debate will be the moderator bias against Trump. We didn't learn anything about the candidates that we didn't already know, what was exposed is the gigantic machine that is behind Harris. People don't like being gaslit

---

This!!!

Who?mikejones! said:

---

One thing that makes me nervous about both Arizona and even Florida, is that there are abortion measures on the ballot. As we've seen, that's one issue that will drive otherwise benign voters to the polls.

---

and more than 50% of this country loves them some baby murdering.... Taylor Swift included.

Quo Vadis? said:

---

TheCougarHunter said:

---

Quo Vadis? said:

---

DonHenley said:

---

Not looking forward to the polls after this debate

---

I actually think it will be good for Trump

---

Please explain your mental gymnastics behind this statement

---

The takeaway from this debate will be the moderator bias against Trump. We didn't learn anything about the candidates that we didn't already know, what was exposed is the gigantic machine that is behind Harris. People don't like being gaslit

---

I believe you may be right. It's kinda like the lawfare that failed. This will too

Changed exactly nothing.

RESULTS of our joint @trafalgar_group @InsiderPolling #PresidentialDebate2024 #Battlegroundstate #poll.

1) Supporting for president before the debate.

47% Trump
47% Harris
2% Others
4% Undecided

2) Who won the debate?

55% Harris
43% Trump
2% Tie

3) Who are you… pic.twitter.com/HT0uKQS4fK

— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 11, 2024

Quo Vadis? said:

---

TheCougarHunter said:

---

Quo Vadis? said:

---

DonHenley said:

---

Not looking forward to the polls after this debate

---

I actually think it will be good for Trump

---

Please explain your mental gymnastics behind this statement

---

The takeaway from this debate will be the moderator bias against Trump. We didn't learn anything about the candidates that we didn't already know, what was exposed is the gigantic machine that is behind Harris. People don't like being gaslit

---

18-30s don't like to be gaslit. And they are generally more focused on that concept more so than any generation in the past.

#New General Election poll

🔵 Harris 48% (+3)
🔴 Trump 45%

Last poll (8/18) - 🔵 Harris +2

Who won the debate - 🔵 Harris +19

SoCal (🔴) - 719 LV - 9/11

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 11, 2024

A group of undecided voters revealed that Kamala Harris’s debate performance failed to persuade them, with most swayed by Donald Trump’s economic promises, citing vague responses from Harris and a lack of differentiation from President Biden’s policies (Reuters). pic.twitter.com/hm51xwT7uJ

— The Bias (@thebias_news) September 11, 2024

This is why Kamala immediately called for a 2nd debate

She knows she missed on the issues that matter - economy & immigration

Slamming Trump w/talking points that appeal to NYC/LA voters may feel good

But those people aren’t deciding the election

PA, GA, NV and AZ are https://t.co/vM36ENMnxb

— DC_Draino (@DC_Draino) September 11, 2024

Hopefully, Democrats really do think she won on substance/materially last night.

This is what I was saying. I'm sure a bunch of "yassss brat kweeeen slay" voters thought she owned the stage last night, but no one cares about those people. People are furious about the moderation, and think Kamala was a phony who told stories instead of answering questions

#New General Election poll

🔴 Trump 45%
🔵 Harris 45%

Last poll - 🔵 Harris +2

Economist #B - 1462 RV - 9/10

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 11, 2024

Quo Vadis? said:

---

This is what I was saying. I'm sure a bunch of "yassss brat kweeeen slay" voters thought she owned the stage last night, but no one cares about those people. People are furious about the moderation, and think Kamala was a phony who told stories instead of answering questions

---

And now for a different kind of poll. 1% of people born between 1980 and 1994 claim not to have been alive during the 9/11/01 attacks

And check out the party ID. Woof

🇺🇲 National poll: YouGov/Economist

🟦 Harris: 45% [-2]
🟥 Trump: 45% [=]
🟩 Stein: 1%
🟨 West: 1%
🟪 Other: 2%

[+/- change vs 9/1-3]
——
Trends
Aug. 20 - 🔵 Harris +3
Sept. 3 - 🔵 Harris +2
Sept. 10 - 🟡 Tie
——
#4 (2.9/3.0) | 1,462 RV | 9/8-10 https://t.co/5ZQ0KLID0j pic.twitter.com/dhtPu6jxEs

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 11, 2024

D+8 sample. Why would they do that? That's ridiculous. They severely underpolled Independents.

IIRC the national breakdown is something like 35/33/32 for D/R/I

What's your read now, post debate? Not seeing anything yet that is moving the needle toward Harris this morning…

Quo Vadis? said:

---

D+8 sample. Why would they do that? That's ridiculous. They severely underpolled Independents.

IIRC the national breakdown is something like 35/33/32 for D/R/I

---

Some would argue bias on their part, but I would lean towards general incompetence and laziness. It does appear that they adjusted it from the D+8 to D+4 for the final results (of a tie). But, their Democrat sample is overly liberal and overly urban. They are getting the cat ladies from Manhattan and not the blue dog Democrat from Kentucky in their samples.

Really what matters is polling PA, Ga, NC, MI in that order. All have 10 million + and 15+ EV's. Voting places in Atlanta, Philly/Pit, Charlotte/Research Triangle and Detroit need to be watched like hawks

Then comes AZ, WI, and NV in that order. There watch Phoenix, Milwaukee, and Vegas.

All the energy in the next 6 weeks is going to land on these places.

FireAg said:

---

What's your read now, post debate? Not seeing anything yet that is moving the needle toward Harris this morning…

---

I think you may see a small shift to Harris in the polls over the next couple of weeks but by the end of the month it won't be a game changer.

The news cycle over the next couple of weeks will be important too. Does the Ohio immigration story take off outside of conservative news outlets? Does the Israel war ramp up or is a peace deal brokered? People are generally unhappy with the economy, the state of the country, and what is going on across the globe. Harris can't change that in the next couple of months. Trump just has to stay out of his own way and not turn off those that are soft Trump supporters to where they don't turn out.

🚨 NEW - ECONOMIST has put Pennsylvania and now NEVADA narrowly in Trump's column as of today. pic.twitter.com/ensAlWrFLm

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 11, 2024

Interesting…

I admit that I didn't watch the debate…. Why? Zero chance anything either said or did last night is going to change my vote…

Polls won't have moved yet from any debate effect.

Trump back on top in Polymarket

🇺🇲 National poll by @cygnal

🟦 Harris: 49% [+1]
🟥 Trump: 47% [=]
—
Generic Ballot
🟥 GOP: 48% [+1]
🟦 DEM: 47% [+1]

[+/- change vs 8/6-8]
——
Crosstabs
• Independents: Harris 53-36%
• Democrats: Harris 96-3%
• Republicans: Trump 95-3%
---
• Unfav. of Biden & Trump:… pic.twitter.com/yY8RkYPc1W

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 11, 2024

Quote:

---

But according to a report from Reuters, undecided voters largely shifted to him after the debate.
"Kamala Harris was widely seen as dominating Tuesday's presidential debate against Republican former president Donald Trump, but a group of undecided voters remained unconvinced that the Democratic vice president was the better candidate," the outlet reported.

Reuters interviewed ten undecided voters before and after a debate. Six of them shifted toward supporting Trump, three leaned toward Harris, and one remained uncertain. That's a rather solid outcome for Trump.

"Although the sample size was small, the responses suggested Harris might need to provide more detailed policy proposals to win over voters who have yet to make up their minds," wrote Reuters.
It gets worse for Kamala.

Quote:

---

Five said they found Harris vague during the more than 90-minute debate on how she would improve the U.S. economy and deal with the high cost of living, a top concern for voters.
The encounter was particularly important for Harris, with a weekend New York Times/Siena College opinion poll showing that more than a quarter of likely voters feel they do not know enough about her, in contrast to the well-known Trump.
The Trump converts said they trusted him more on the economy, even though all said they did not like him as a person. They said their personal financial situation had been better when he was president between 2017-2021. Some singled out his proposal to tax foreign imports, although economists say that is likely to raise prices.
Four of those six also said Harris did not convince them she would pursue different economic policies than Democratic President Joe Biden, a Democrat they largely blame for the high cost of living.
"I still don't know what she is for," said Mark Kadish, 61, an entrepreneur in Florida. "There was no real meat and bones for her plans."

Four of the voters are women and six are men; eight are white and two are Black. All have voted for both Democratic and Republican candidates in the past.
[...]
Robert Wheeler, 48, a security firm executive in Nevada, was leaning toward Harris before the debate. He now says if the election were held tomorrow he would vote for Trump, largely because he thought Harris didn't provide clarity on her policies.
"I felt like the whole debate was Kamala Harris telling me why not to vote for Donald Trump instead of why she's the right candidate," Wheeler said.

---

---

Quote:

---

I'm not gonna lie, this result shocks me. My impression was that this debate likely wouldn't move the needle all that much, if at all, but if this sample is indicative of a larger trend, Donald Trump actually succeeded in doing what he needed to do.

---

Quote:

---

Of course, some will point to various polls saying that Kamala won the debate. And that may be true, but winning a debate doesn't necessarily translate into winning over voters. With the exception of Trump's debate with Joe Biden in June, I can't think of a time when the media ever didn't push the narrative that Trump lost a debate. According to them, he lost all of his debates with Hillary Clinton in 2016 and all of his debates with Joe Biden in 2020. Perhaps winning the debate isn't the goal candidates should be striving for. Perhaps the real goal is winning over undecided voters. And if this Reuters survey is any indication, Trump achieved that.

---

LINK

Trump may have not closed the deal with a knockout punch, my thoughts are he was coached not to be aggressive with her, but he didn't lose any votes either. And she was not able to move many needles in her direction.

Correct. Winning has to be defined/agreed before one starts opining about the 'winner' last night. The camps had very different objectives, especially as Trump is clearly leading where he needs to among demographic groups/states that really matter right now. He didn't answer questions in an eloquent detailed way as one might expect RFK Jr. or Ted Cruz etc to have done, but I think that's because he wasn't trying to reach the same types of folks editorial writers etc. do.

Trump already retaking the lead in poly market is the first indicia of how 'temporary' her 'bump' once again will be.

nortex97 said:

---

Correct. Winning has to be defined/agreed before one starts opining about the 'winner' last night. The camps had very different objectives, especially as Trump is clearly leading where he needs to among demographic groups/states that really matter right now. He didn't answer questions in an eloquent detailed way as one might expect RFK Jr. or Ted Cruz etc to have done, but I think that's because he wasn't trying to reach the same types of folks editorial writers etc. do.

Trump already retaking the lead in poly market is the first indicia of how 'temporary' her 'bump' once again will be.

---

And have to say I'm very surprised by that. Undecided voters, even Never Trumpers, don't believe ABC conducted a fair debate at all. Small sliver of hope that more people are picking up on when they are being gas-lighted by Harris and MSM.

Maybe the American electorate is collectively smarter than I thought up until now. We'll see by the weekend after the latest round of post debate polling. But the knee jerk reaction this morning is more encouraging than I expected.

What was the independent break in 2020 and 2016?

Who?mikejones! said:

---

What was the independent break in 2020 and 2016?

---

Trump was +4 in 16
Biden was +13 in 20