First, I don't speak for anyone else, here or elsewhere. Second, I don't dismiss 'all' polls but the comparisons and cross tabs should be used. Nate Silver for instance is a Dem/Harris supporter but is much more fair overall (still shows her up in his analyses right now). RCP fairly shows her up but only by 1.5, vs. the same time 4 or 8 years ago. The cross tabs do matter. I posted one today (Harris) that showed PA very close (but Harris plus 2) which I think is a decent approximation probably, but had 97 percent of black voters going for her. That's…just silly.Hungry Ojos said:I don't know how all of you guys can just outright dismiss every poll that shows Trump behind. I understand bias, but why would literally ALL of these pollsters, intentionally manipulate their data, knowing that once its discovered that they are wrong, they no longer have a business to live off of. In other words, they are all willing to intentionally tank their personal livelihood for fake polls?nortex97 said:538 is just ABC news/Disney Entertainment, and should be taken with a grain of salt at this point in it's history. But yes, I agree depending on PA would be disappointing. I don't think that is likely, however.Philip J Fry said:
Difference between the two is PA. I don't like depending on PA going red to win.
They just finally got around to appointing a new upper west side chief (after several months). If you have been under the misapprehension that David Muir's nightly news program has been calling it straight, this is probably encouraging. Nate Silver himself has derided them a few times this year.
And again, the media, including Disney (538) have gone all out to generate an image of a Harris surge which I frankly think is wrong. Folks are free to disagree.