Muh Polls

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nortex97
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In reply to Hungry Ojos • 2:23p, 8/23/24
AG
Hungry Ojos said:
nortex97 said:
Philip J Fry said:
Difference between the two is PA. I don't like depending on PA going red to win.
538 is just ABC news/Disney Entertainment, and should be taken with a grain of salt at this point in it's history. But yes, I agree depending on PA would be disappointing. I don't think that is likely, however.

They just finally got around to appointing a new upper west side chief (after several months). If you have been under the misapprehension that David Muir's nightly news program has been calling it straight, this is probably encouraging. Nate Silver himself has derided them a few times this year.
I don't know how all of you guys can just outright dismiss every poll that shows Trump behind. I understand bias, but why would literally ALL of these pollsters, intentionally manipulate their data, knowing that once its discovered that they are wrong, they no longer have a business to live off of. In other words, they are all willing to intentionally tank their personal livelihood for fake polls?
First, I don't speak for anyone else, here or elsewhere. Second, I don't dismiss 'all' polls but the comparisons and cross tabs should be used. Nate Silver for instance is a Dem/Harris supporter but is much more fair overall (still shows her up in his analyses right now). RCP fairly shows her up but only by 1.5, vs. the same time 4 or 8 years ago. The cross tabs do matter. I posted one today (Harris) that showed PA very close (but Harris plus 2) which I think is a decent approximation probably, but had 97 percent of black voters going for her. That's…just silly.

And again, the media, including Disney (538) have gone all out to generate an image of a Harris surge which I frankly think is wrong. Folks are free to disagree.
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WestAustinAg
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In reply to nortex97 • 2:34p, 8/23/24
AG
nortex97 said:
Hungry Ojos said:
nortex97 said:
Philip J Fry said:
Difference between the two is PA. I don't like depending on PA going red to win.
538 is just ABC news/Disney Entertainment, and should be taken with a grain of salt at this point in it's history. But yes, I agree depending on PA would be disappointing. I don't think that is likely, however.

They just finally got around to appointing a new upper west side chief (after several months). If you have been under the misapprehension that David Muir's nightly news program has been calling it straight, this is probably encouraging. Nate Silver himself has derided them a few times this year.
I don't know how all of you guys can just outright dismiss every poll that shows Trump behind. I understand bias, but why would literally ALL of these pollsters, intentionally manipulate their data, knowing that once its discovered that they are wrong, they no longer have a business to live off of. In other words, they are all willing to intentionally tank their personal livelihood for fake polls?
First, I don't speak for anyone else, here or elsewhere. Second, I don't dismiss 'all' polls but the comparisons and cross tabs should be used. Nate Silver for instance is a Dem/Harris supporter but is much more fair overall (still shows her up in his analyses right now). RCP fairly shows her up but only by 1.5, vs. the same time 4 or 8 years ago. The cross tabs do matter. I posted one today (Harris) that showed PA very close (but Harris plus 2) which I think is a decent approximation probably, but had 97 percent of black voters going for her. That's…just silly.

And again, the media, including Disney (538) have gone all out to generate an image of a Harris surge which I frankly think is wrong. Folks are free to disagree.


538 won't include Rasmussen polls in his averages because he is seen as partisan. They sent him a questionnaire wanting to find out how he is funded and how he does certain aspects of his polling operation and he said that he isn't going to reply to their invasive questions. He is also supposed to apologize for something publicly and he said no thanks.
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DTP02
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In reply to WestAustinAg • 2:35p, 8/23/24
AG
WestAustinAg said:
The Asterisk on Kamala Harris's Poll Numbers
Pollsters think they've learned from their mistakes in 2020. Of course, they thought that last time too.

https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/08/election-polls-2020-mistakes/679545/

******

The 2016 election lives in popular memory as perhaps the most infamous polling miss of all time, but 2020 was quietly even worse. The polls four years ago badly underestimated Trump's support even as they correctly forecast a Joe Biden win. A comprehensive postmortem by the American Association for Public Opinion Research concluded that 2020 polls were the least accurate in decades, overstating Biden's advantage by an average of 3.9 percentage points nationally and 4.3 percentage points at the state level over the final two weeks of the election. (In 2016, by contrast, national polling predicted Hillary Clinton's popular-vote margin quite accurately.) According to The New York Times, Biden led by 10 points in Wisconsin but won it by less than 1 point; he led Michigan by 8 and won by 3; he led in Pennsylvania by 5 and won by about 1. As of this writing, Harris is up in all three states, but by less than Biden was. A 2020-size error would mean that she's actually downand poised to lose the Electoral College.

The pollsters know they messed up in 2020. They are cautiously optimistic that they've learned from their mistakes. Of course, they thought that last time too.

How did the polls get worse from 2016 to 2020, with everyone watching? In the aftermath of Trump's surprise 2016 victory, the public-opinion-research industry concluded that the problem was educational polarization. If pollsters had made a point of including enough white people without college degrees in their samples, they wouldn't have underestimated Trump so badly. During the 2020 cycle, they focused on correcting that mistake.

It didn't work. Even though polls in 2020 included more white non-college-educated voters, they turned out to be disproportionately the white non-college-educated voters who preferred Biden. The new consensus is that Republican voters are less likely to respond to polls in the first place, even controlling for education level. (To put it more nerdily, partisan preference correlates independently with willingness to take a poll, at least when Trump is on the ballot.) Don Levy, the director of the Siena College Research Institute, which conducts polls on behalf of The New York Times, calls the phenomenon "anti-establishment response bias." The more someone distrusts mainstream institutions, including the media and pollsters, the more likely they are to vote for Trump.


I would add to that for the past few weeks the enthusiasm factor is skewing polling. There was a rush of enthusiasm from Dem voters once they no longer had to vote for Biden, which almost certainly had led to a greater likelihood of Dems responding to polling attempts.

I expect that enthusiasm effect to wane and that the polls in about two weeks will be the most accurate polls we've had since Biden was forced out.
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Marvin_Zindler
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In reply to outofstateaggie • 2:36p, 8/23/24
AG
outofstateaggie said:
1
WestAustinAg said:
How bad is this poll?





14% Undecided? Good grief.



If I was a dude named Jasper….I'd just change my name.
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oh no
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In reply to rgag12 • 3:26p, 8/23/24
AG
rgag12 said:
Philip J Fry said:
Difference between the two is PA. I don't like depending on PA going red to win.


Any way you slice it, Trump has to win either PA, MI, or WI. Any one of those is a big ask and why Dems are currently in a strong position for electoral college races.

Northern Virginia turning DEEP blue and taking Virginia out of play for republicans was one of the most consequential things that happened between 2008 and 2016.
if Youngkin's voter integrity EO holds and is enforced, VA could be in play at best or force the Kamlala campaign to spend resources playing defense there at worst.

But yes, assuming VA is not in play, Trump must flip AZ and GA back (did they do enough on integrity controls?), hold NC (it's tight in the polls), and flip one of the three blue wall states. It's a lot. All the pressure is on R and the odds favor the side that controls the counting in the key urban centers Phoenix, Atlanta, Charlotte, Philly & Allegheny co, Detroit, Madison & Milwaukee.

Of the three blue wall states, PA is the only one Trump leads in some polls, but, in Nico Maduro-like fashion, PA already announced they're going to keep counting after the election until desired results are achieved again. Trump campaign cannot count on PA at any time for any reason, IMO.

MI is getting closer in the polling, but I think the best chance is WI. Trump won WI by less than 1% in 2016 and lost it by less than 1% in 2020. They still have a R senator and a D senator. I believe they actually tried to do something about election integrity since 2020 with the quantity of un-surveilled drop boxes and the requirements to request absentee ballots. Probably best chance for Trump there, again, assuming AZ, GA, NC hold.
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jt2hunt
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In reply to oh no • 5:25p, 8/23/24
AG
If you can keep those shady ass election officials from printing out, fake ballots for Harris
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Captn_Ag05
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5:27p, 8/23/24
AG
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nortex97
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6:50p, 8/23/24
AG
This is a real (internal) poll:

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SoyTanLento
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In reply to nortex97 • 6:57p, 8/23/24
I've got some ocean front property in Arizona to sell you if you believe that poll. 66% in Nevada is no where near the right number.
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nortex97
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In reply to SoyTanLento • 7:00p, 8/23/24
AG
Reading comprehension; that's Trump's share of Kennedy's (former) share. LOL.

You don't have to believe me, but Trump's team has been excited about this and polling the data for the past week.
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rgag12
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In reply to SoyTanLento • 7:01p, 8/23/24
AG
Username checks out
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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:15p, 8/23/24
nortex97 said:
This is a real (internal) poll:



It's amazing how much the RFKJR vote changes from state to state
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Quo Vadis?
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7:22p, 8/23/24
Make America Jacked Again
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Waffledynamics
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8:47p, 8/23/24
AG
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Phog06
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 10:39p, 8/23/24
AG
Waffledynamics said:



No one believes this. Harris is an absolute disaster.
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oh no
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In reply to Phog06 • 1:14a, 8/24/24
AG
Phog06 said:
Harris is an absolute disaster.
yes, but people are really stupid and easy to manipulate.
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nortex97
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4:37a, 8/24/24
AG


On Silver's post, he has an addendum to it I pasted below:

Quote:
There is a lot of complicated context here about RFK (the adjustments for his withdraw are NOT yet fully implemented) and the convention bounce adjustment. That's explained a rare Nate longform tweet below.

___

RFK Jr. endorsed Donald Trump today and dropped out of the race sort of. The reality is a little more complicated: he intends to withdraw his name from swing state ballots although that may not be possible in all cases but not noncompetitive ones. For a much longer take on What This All Means, including our first thoughts on how the model will handle it, see here.

For the time being, all that we're doing is removing RFK from our projections in the four states where his campaign never claimed to qualify these are Kentucky, Wyoming, Mississippi and Rhode Island plus New York, where lawsuits knocked him off the ballot, and Arizona, where he's already taken steps to withdraw. In these states, the votes that would otherwise have gone to RFK in the model are reallocated to Trump and Harris, with Trump getting the slightly larger share since RFK was generally drawing more votes from Trump than Harris in polls that tested the matchup both ways. Previously, the model had been treating Kennedy's ballot access probabilistically in these states, meaning that the model would randomly have him on the ballot in some simulations but not in others.

We will be making further changes, but we need a day or two to sort through the options: it would have been more straightforward if RFK had just unambiguously withdrawn. It's not a particularly hard problem from a programming standpoint, but it's been a busy day Harris accepted the Democratic nomination last night and we have a long take for you on that, too.

As far as the polls themselves went, Harris got some promising data, so you can see a clear uptick for her in our national polling average. However, the model is now applying the a convention bounce adjustment to polls that were conducted during the DNC, so she only ticked up just slightly in the forecast part of our model, which adjusts for this. Again, this is not yet the full post-RFK version of the forecast.
The RFK Trump alliance in battleground states in particular will take some time to play out in the polls that are quality there, imho.

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ts5641
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In reply to nortex97 • 6:53a, 8/24/24
His followers are pretty loyal. I mean you'd have to be to stick by a guy getting 5%. So since he specifically instructed them to vote for Trump and eviscerated the dem party, I believe most of his followers will vote Trump or if they just can't bring themselves to do it, most likely abstain.
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WestAustinAg
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7:08a, 8/24/24
AG
Next media project. Find a a hand full of Kennedy supporters that are also never trumpers and spend a week talking about those kinds of voters.
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MagnumLoad
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12:49p, 8/24/24
Neither party officials should control the vote counting anywhere ever. That is an absurdly flawed concept.
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TyHolden
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6:31p, 8/24/24
AG
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outofstateaggie
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12:14p, 8/25/24
AG
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PA24
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12:16p, 8/25/24
AG
Polls since RFK should be out middle of the week?
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Rockdoc
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12:17p, 8/25/24
AG
I wonder if this is why we've seen a slowdown in poll reporting on here.
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Captn_Ag05
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12:26p, 8/25/24
AG
AM poll dump







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Rockdoc
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In reply to outofstateaggie • 1:16p, 8/25/24
AG
outofstateaggie said:

I'm starting to see why he said this now.
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nortex97
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1:17p, 8/25/24
AG
Luntz I…don't respect, personally, but he does have a large audience, so this should probably be here:



I consider him far left, but agree with his sentiment here, and Trump's messaging/position at this point;
Quote:
Quote:
If it is about attributes, if he continues to attack Harris in the way that he has done, and he gets away from inflation, which is really affordability, stops talking about paycheck-to-paycheck voters, which is better than working class or middle class, the language does matter here, if he does that, he is in the driver's seat.
We won't know if he's right until the Fat Lady sings in November, but two things are clearly evident: RFK Jr.'s decision to go with Trump and dump the duplicitous Democrat party that's been at the heart of his family's history will have a profound effect on this election, and 2) the media hates this move with every fiber of their corrupt being and will continue to do everything in their power to undermine the GOP and prop up the mendacious socialist campaign of Kamala Harris. American voters need to see through this ruse.
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backintexas2013
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1:30p, 8/25/24
AG
I think Kamala will remain where she is until she actually has to answer policy questions. Throwing out price gouging talking points gets the low information voters fired up. Throw in the lie about rich not paying their fair share and you have people who are jealous of the successful people foaming at the mouth
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 1:32p, 8/25/24
AG
Good grief those are catastrophic.
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RulesForTheeNotForMe
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1:44p, 8/25/24
AG
ActiVote was a D +13 survey pool and Harris is up 6?

I wouldn't call that a good pool for her. Always nice when all these pollster horribly skew their sample population to get a desired result. 15-20 years ago they would have been laughed at but now because we live in a twitter/headline only world, people take the headline at face value.
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BuddysBud
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In reply to RulesForTheeNotForMe • 1:47p, 8/25/24
AG
RulesForTheeNotForMe said:
ActiVote was a D +13 survey pool and Harris is up 6?

I wouldn't call that a good pool for her. Always nice when all these pollster horribly skew their sample population to get a desired result. 15-20 years ago they would have been laughed at but now because we live in a twitter/headline only world, people take the headline at face value.


I don't know details about polling but that seems catastrophic for Harris.
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TRM
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In reply to RulesForTheeNotForMe • 1:51p, 8/25/24
AG
They'll take a weighted average based on their turnout model.
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Barnyard96
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In reply to TRM • 1:54p, 8/25/24
AG
With a thumb on the scale
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RulesForTheeNotForMe
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In reply to TRM • 1:55p, 8/25/24
AG
Even in weighted average of D +5, that's not a good sign for Harris given she has have 35 straight days of media gushing over her with almost zero push back. This is a ceiling for her, it's all down from here.
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aggiehawg
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2:31p, 8/25/24
AG


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