Muh Polls

772,687 Views | 5704 Replies | Last: 17 hrs ago by dreyOO
GenericAggie
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TRM said:

For all the talk of Waltz and his flaws, it doesn't seem be getting through. Maybe, change strategy.



I honestly do not for the life of me understand New Hampshire and how they vote. They love hunting independence, the outdoors, and they vote Democrat. It is the craziest thing to me.
Captn_Ag05
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Great poll for Trump
Captn_Ag05
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The purple Nebraska district that may go Harris. Nebraska awards their electoral votes by congressional district.

oh no
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I'd like to see Virginia and Nebraska 2nd at this exact time 4 years ago. Was Biden up bigly?
Showstopper
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The population of New Hampshire is concentrated in the southeastern portion of the state, which is essentially part of the greater Boston area.
Captn_Ag05
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oh no said:

I'd like to see Virginia and Nebraska 2nd at this exact time 4 years ago. Was Biden up bigly?
Here are NE-2 and VA polls from 2020.

For Virginia, polls showed a Biden lead anywhere from 5 to 17 points. Biden won Virginia by 9.4.

For Nebraska-2, there were only two polls, one where Biden was up 3 and the other 7. Biden won by 6.8.

Virginia



Nebraska CD-2

oh no
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thank you
2023NCAggies
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GenericAggie said:

TRM said:

For all the talk of Waltz and his flaws, it doesn't seem be getting through. Maybe, change strategy.



I honestly do not for the life of me understand New Hampshire and how they vote. They love hunting independence, the outdoors, and they vote Democrat. It is the craziest thing to me.
Too soon to look at favorable ratings for Walz. Matter of fact it is too early to believe the Harris approval.

Neither one will fairly be ranked until they do some interviews, press conferences, debates and Town Halls.

Vance isn't properly ranked either, after all the hit pieces he fell to where he is, he is now ascending with all the public appearances he has been making. Which is surprising me a little, when he talks and you actually listen, you come away loving the guy. He is pretty damn smart and relates to many.

Good pick, still would have picked DeSantis or Byron, but Vance may turn out to prove that view point wrong

Every one notices Harris approval rating Jumped, so did Trumps a little, most polls I have seen are around 47-53. So while he has said some outlandish things lately, for the most part the new calm nicer Trump they are trying to pass for the women vote is working a little. But with ghetto combative Kamrad Harris, idk if it is possible to hold back a ton.

Listen to her speak, the whole say it to my face, portraying he is scared to debate, when she is the one wanting to be in charge of every aspect of the debates.

I think the ghetto trash talk is way worse than anything Trump says or tweets. She likes to bark like a dog then hide behind the media, one of those types.
2023NCAggies
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IF you are Trump, you are going for Virginia just as much as PA. With this poll he is only down 3.

Youngkin might get paper ballots and ID req. passed as well

https://roanoke.edu/news/rcpoll/august2024
2023NCAggies
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Captn_Ag05 said:



Great poll for Trump
Very good one, Trump needs to have a massive ground game there and get every redneck they can find to vote, ballot harvest
2023NCAggies
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Captn_Ag05 said:

The purple Nebraska district that may go Harris. Nebraska awards their electoral votes by congressional district.


POsters on X think this poll is garbage and Trump is doing a lot better than people think in Omaha.

The sample was +8 Dem, and there is no way that is correct. Also that poll had 16% Republicans deflecting to Harris, that is complete BS

People in Omaha seem to think it will be Trump
AggieUSMC
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Quo Vadis? said:

MemphisAg1 said:

Captn_Ag05 said:

Morning Insult's weekly poll


I'm extremely skeptical of Trump getting 21% of the black vote, but if he does, it's ball game.


Would be huge.

Of the 20.2 million blacks who voted in 2020 exit polls estimate 17.6 million voted for Biden and 2.61 for Trump, a difference of 15,000,000 for Biden

If the same 20.2 million vote in 2024 in the percentage above it would be
14.54 for Harris, and 4.24 for Trump. A difference of 10,300,00 for Harris.

A narrowing of 4,700,000 votes for Trump. That cuts away over half of what he lost the PV by in 2020.
If I had a dollar for every poll that showed a Republican cutting into the black vote yet still losing it with the Dem getting 90+% in the actual vote, I'd be a millionaire.
oh no
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AggieUSMC said:

Quo Vadis? said:

MemphisAg1 said:

Captn_Ag05 said:

Morning Insult's weekly poll


I'm extremely skeptical of Trump getting 21% of the black vote, but if he does, it's ball game.


Would be huge.

Of the 20.2 million blacks who voted in 2020 exit polls estimate 17.6 million voted for Biden and 2.61 for Trump, a difference of 15,000,000 for Biden

If the same 20.2 million vote in 2024 in the percentage above it would be
14.54 for Harris, and 4.24 for Trump. A difference of 10,300,00 for Harris.

A narrowing of 4,700,000 votes for Trump. That cuts away over half of what he lost the PV by in 2020.
If I had a dollar for every poll that showed a Republican cutting into the black vote yet still losing it with the Dem getting 90+% in the actual vote, I'd be a millionaire.
I don't think anyone expects Trump to get the 20% or whatever some polls are showing, but Trump increased his % of the black vote between 2016 and 2020 and in 2020, it was more than any republican candidate had received in over 40 years. Polls do seem to indicate that he'll take a bigger slice of that pie again this time.
Barnyard96
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I'd like to see a breakdown by swing state not national
will25u
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MiamiHopper
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OMAHA A new poll in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District shows Vice President Kamala Harris has reinvigorated local Democrats, infusing them with renewed hope.

The survey by conservative pollster Remington Research Group taken Aug. 14-17 indicates that Harris leads former President Donald Trump in the district 50%-42%, with a 3.8% margin of error.

The poll indicated minimal support for third-party candidates, including 2% support for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 1% for Cornel West and less support for Jill Stein and Chase Oliver.

https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2024/08/20/harris-leads-trump-in-new-nebraska-2nd-district-poll/

Captn_Ag05
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Barnyard96 said:

I'd like to see a breakdown by swing state not national
https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states
Barnyard96
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Was referring to the black vote and other demographics
Captn_Ag05
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Barnyard96 said:

Was referring to the black vote and other demographics
Most of those polls have cross tabs you can dig into and look at income, race, education, etc.

My general takeaway is that Trump is doing better with working class black men in places like Pennsylvania and Michigan, but not doing any better with more educated and affluent black men in areas like Atlanta or Charlotte.
AggieZUUL
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Im sure this has been answered here, but how are these polls obtaining their info? Online, people on the street, phone calls? Do they verify citizenship?

Based on the average of past polls from prior presidential races, They can never really predict the electoral election outcome based on popular vote polling. You'd have to give Trump a +5 handicap to makeup for the poor methodology.
Science Denier
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They make contact
Ask if the person identifies as left or right
If person says right, they hang up
if person says left, they ask their opinions
Captn_Ag05
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The Hub poll results

Barnyard96
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2 weeks old
oh no
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Barnyard96
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Artorias
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Barnyard96 said:



Holy ****, what prompted the big 10 point spike?
McInnis 03
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Artorias said:

Barnyard96 said:



Holy ****, what prompted the big 10 point spike?



You have to assume price caps.

Now give "un realized gains" a few days and see
rgag12
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Artorias said:

Barnyard96 said:



Holy ****, what prompted the big 10 point spike?



I'm guessing reaction to some of Kamala's economic policies she rolled out at the end of last week.
Artorias
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I hope it is her insane policies, gives me a glimmer of hope for our population.
Barnyard96
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rathAG05
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If that were true, it would give me hope in America again.
will25u
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Seems legit. Lol

Hungry Ojos
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will25u said:

Seems legit. Lol




What are the results for those of us without Twitter?
Artorias
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77/23 Trump
2.5 million votes

JasonD2005
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Currently running 71% DT and 29% KH
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