Muh Polls

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Barnyard96
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6:36p, 8/18/24
AG
Rasmussen state polls. 4 more coming


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2023NCAggies
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11:41p, 8/18/24
Still looking like a Trump beatdown. Amazing considering the amount of money and effort they've put into Harris campaign.

They're barely leading in most swing states and a couple are drifting away from them already. Riot's and mayhem are about break out during their convention lol from the group they've tried to appease to the most, Muslims

What a bunch of idiot's. Her economic plan was a giant bust. They literally have a new nickname Kamrad Kamala

Don't trip about the polls. These recent state polls are all over the place and I do not see any consistency state to state. Nationally I was expecting most to be +3% for Harris which she is underperforming

Trump is in a good spot. Harris has been crowned The Black Virgin Mary for 30 days straight, spending tons and Trump has basically sat back and did a bunch of cheap free press.

No one should be complaining about Trump. Raegan would be doing the same in this environment. No matter who they'd be doing about the same and y'all would all have something you'd do better.

If her numbers don't go up a lot during their convention, they're in deep trouble

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nortex97
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5:08a, 8/19/24
AG
Hamas Democrats not happy with Harris/Biden:

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ts5641
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In reply to nortex97 • 5:16a, 8/19/24
Could the hamas dems save us?
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Corporal Punishment
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In reply to ts5641 • 6:29a, 8/19/24
AG
ts5641 said:
Could the hamas dems save us?

Maybe we'll see Ihlan Omar wearing a MAGA hat.
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oh no
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In reply to ts5641 • 7:40a, 8/19/24
AG
ts5641 said:
Could the hamas dems save us?
some things that start to chip away from the machine to save us

- twitter taken private and bought by someone who was pissed about government influence censoring the press last time means meant that not all social media tech platform monopolies are part of the security state's influence and control anymore = truths will come out and get decimated more easily.

- no scamdemic could mean fewer "absentee" ballots mailed out

- some states actually did something with registration rolls and election integrity, even if just a little bit

- the disastrous Biden-Harris admin has billionaires like Zuckerberg possibly less motivated to fund as much of the electioneering and ballot harvesting operations. Zuck even admitted that it was bad ass when Trump stood up after being shot. will he give half a billion to CTCL again? or nah?

- polling for minorities indicates Trump will take an even bigger dent than he did in 2020, which was already more than any republican in over 40 years. a clue on why Biden-Harris invited +10 million poor asylum claimants who want free stuff and always talk about "path to amnesty"?

- a lot of the tiktok generation has gone all the way in with hamas and hatred of israel and jews. most were never going to vote for a non-socialist, but this time, they might not vote at all.
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Captn_Ag05
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9:41a, 8/19/24
AG
As ugly as these numbers are, a one point shift in NC and PA would still be a Trump win

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nortex97
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 10:08a, 8/19/24
AG
Focal Data is a British outfit founded by a Columbia masters in poli-sci (Ibbitt). Yeah, I'm gonna go with…not real persuasive/insightful/trustworthy, for me, until proven otherwise. Columbia is a hotbed of communists/antisemites, most especially their political science program(s).
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jt2hunt
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 10:12a, 8/19/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
As ugly as these numbers are, a one point shift in NC and PA would still be a Trump win



Ocean front property in Arizona
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LMCane
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 10:14a, 8/19/24

[We removed three of your posts where you're either derailing about how the Republicans should have picked a different candidate, or claiming that Trump has already lost the election, or calling out the posting pattern of other posters. Totally fine to discuss and debate polls, but those behaviors are out of bounds, especially the consistent pattern that is hijacking the thread -- Staff]

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Captn_Ag05
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10:21a, 8/19/24
AG
My biggest worry with Georgia...

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/18/trump-kemp-feud-georgia-00174471
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 10:57a, 8/19/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
My biggest worry with Georgia...

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/18/trump-kemp-feud-georgia-00174471
Meh. They do not like each other at all, it goes both ways. That won't change but GOP in Georgia is pretty united beyond that and have fixed the cheat machine in Atlanta. Not worried about Georgia
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oh no
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 11:11a, 8/19/24
AG
Quote:
fixed the cheat machine in Atlanta
i don't believe you.gif


Hopefully they have implemented enough to tamp it down a bit. I think Trump needs to be up at least 2 points in the polls in GA heading into election day, but that's a WAG. Who knows how much is too big to cheat?
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Barnyard96
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 11:12a, 8/19/24
AG
Please elaborate on how they fixed atlanta
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Captn_Ag05
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11:29a, 8/19/24
AG


In the actual results, Trump has a .5 lead in Georgia. With these results, Trump would win the EC, 283-255
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Barnyard96
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11:57a, 8/19/24
AG
I've decided the polling industry might as well sit this one out.
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nortex97
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 12:50p, 8/19/24
AG
Barnyard96 said:
I've decided the polling industry might as well sit this one out.
I've seen this on 'the right' a lot, but I think the cynicism is misplaced. Polls were still relatively accurate even in 2020 given the fraud that was blatantly present in places like Wayne, Fulton, Maricopa counties etc. It's fine not to 'trust all polls' or even any given poll but it's also silly to ignore the data they provide, imho.



Especially when considering RV vs. LV polls:



When even the NYT has Trump up 4 in Georgia, I am not of the camp that 'we should just throw the polls to the side this cycle.'
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Barnyard96
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In reply to nortex97 • 1:00p, 8/19/24
AG
If I was ignoring the data, I wouldnt have this thread bookmarked.
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nortex97
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 2:26p, 8/19/24
AG
Ok, fair enough, I just have seen a bunch of folks here who seem to only want to disparage polls/predict doom. Sorry.



Trump seems to actually be pulling…ahead in Penn, imho.
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whytho987654
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 2:29p, 8/19/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
As ugly as these numbers are, a one point shift in NC and PA would still be a Trump win

This is just more blatant lies in an attempt to make some 3 am changes and claim "well the polls had her winning"
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Claverack
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In reply to nortex97 • 2:30p, 8/19/24
nortex97 said:
Ok, fair enough, I just have seen a bunch of folks here who seem to only want to disparage polls/predict doom. Sorry.



Trump seems to actually be pulling…ahead in Penn, imho.
Telling it like is in Pennsylvania concerning the reason why Shapiro is not on that ticket will play there.

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Quo Vadis?
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3:14p, 8/19/24
Trump REALLY REALLY REALLY needs to throw some bull**** position at RFKJR in order to get his support. The dude is absolutely jacked, make him Health Czar or something like that. Give him a sweet ambassador spot. Just get him on board. We could use those 3-5%.
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aezmvp
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3:18p, 8/19/24
The way they weight these and the methodology and cross tabs are so important and 99.9% of people will never get past the top line.
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GeorgiAg
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3:22p, 8/19/24
AG
Meh. Hillary was up before 2016. We all know how that turned out.
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Drahknor03
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3:31p, 8/19/24
AG
The U.S. has the opportunity to do the funniest thing ever:

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Captn_Ag05
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6:37p, 8/19/24
AG
Morning Insult's weekly poll

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Captn_Ag05
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6:39p, 8/19/24
AG


Californians love communism.
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PanzerAggie06
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 6:43p, 8/19/24
AG
Quo Vadis? said:
Trump REALLY REALLY REALLY needs to throw some bull**** position at RFKJR in order to get his support. The dude is absolutely jacked, make him Health Czar or something like that. Give him a sweet ambassador spot. Just get him on board. We could use those 3-5%.


There's a a huge assumption in there. Just because RFK were to back Trump it would not mean his supporters would get on board. It's anecdotal but the handful of people I know that support RFK aren't going to suddenly vote for Trump because Robert might tell them to do so.

Not saying none of his supporters would head Trumps way but I have to believe there would be a lot of defections or people that would end up just staying home. Either way I'd like to see if there are any polls on what an RFK endorsement might mean in regards to how his supporters would respond.
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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to PanzerAggie06 • 6:44p, 8/19/24
PanzerAggie06 said:
Quo Vadis? said:
Trump REALLY REALLY REALLY needs to throw some bull**** position at RFKJR in order to get his support. The dude is absolutely jacked, make him Health Czar or something like that. Give him a sweet ambassador spot. Just get him on board. We could use those 3-5%.


There's a a huge assumption in there. Just because RFK were to back Trump it would not mean his supporters would get on board. It's anecdotal but the handful of people I know that support RFK aren't going to suddenly vote for Trump because Robert might tell them to do so.

Not saying none of his supporters would head Trumps way but I have to believe there would be a lot of defections or people that would end up just staying home. Either way I'd like to see if there are any polls on what an RFK endorsement might mean in regards to how his supporters would respond.


Sure; I just think a sizeable chunk would defect to Trump if rfk was part of the admin
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ttha_aggie_09
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 6:51p, 8/19/24
AG
Or would sit this one out
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MemphisAg1
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 6:51p, 8/19/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Morning Insult's weekly poll

I'm extremely skeptical of Trump getting 21% of the black vote, but if he does, it's ball game.
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Barnyard96
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In reply to MemphisAg1 • 7:03p, 8/19/24
AG
What if its 21% in any given swing state?
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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to MemphisAg1 • 7:04p, 8/19/24
MemphisAg1 said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Morning Insult's weekly poll

I'm extremely skeptical of Trump getting 21% of the black vote, but if he does, it's ball game.


Would be huge.

Of the 20.2 million blacks who voted in 2020 exit polls estimate 17.6 million voted for Biden and 2.61 for Trump, a difference of 15,000,000 for Biden

If the same 20.2 million vote in 2024 in the percentage above it would be
14.54 for Harris, and 4.24 for Trump. A difference of 10,300,00 for Harris.

A narrowing of 4,700,000 votes for Trump. That cuts away over half of what he lost the PV by in 2020.
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MemphisAg1
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 7:04p, 8/19/24
AG
Barnyard96 said:
What if its 21% in any given swing state?
Yeah that would be different. I was thinking of national.

Although if he gets 21% of the black vote in a swing state, he picks up that state.
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TRM
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8:58p, 8/19/24
AG
For all the talk of Waltz and his flaws, it doesn't seem be getting through. Maybe, change strategy.
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