You're not sounding nearly as confident as you previously were.

Thankfully. Neither is Silver:

Today's update. 2nd straight mediocre polling day for Harris. In the range where it could be noise, but her lead in our national polling average has been trimmed to 2.4 points from 3.1.https://t.co/vsGVG18HHI pic.twitter.com/r5rf4hLPa4

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 16, 2024

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A second straight day of gains for Trump with some mediocre polling for Harris; her lead in our national polling average is down to 2.4 points from a peak of 3.1. It's too early to say whether there's been some turn in momentum or if this is just statistical noise and in any event, Harris will have a chance to refresh her momentum at the DNC next week, but the vibes aren't as good as they were a week ago.

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ED MORRISSEY
It doesn't seem to be narrowing up at RCP yet, but Silver has a different aggregation/weighting process. It's a tie in PA at RCP still, and within one in Wisconsin still too. Only in MI does there seem to be Kamomentum, but Trump only trails by 2.1 there.

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How is the GOP incumbent down 1 in a district the Dem governor won by 12 in the same year (2022)…something that makes sense? This is basically greater Harrisburg, maybe the Dem (shamaine Daniels) was terrible in 22? It was D+9 for Biden (a ways west of Philly) in 2020. 71% white, 10% black…this one is a real head scratcher, but also maybe Perry (vet, house freedom caucus) is struggling as too far right?

This is a district Shapiro won by 12pts in 2022. If a democratic internal poll shows Stelson up only by 1pt, it spells TROUBLE for Democrats.

— D (@dennisrumet) August 16, 2024

Interesting because the NRCC feel they're falling behind.

Another source on the call tells me Hudson is sounding the alarm.

Hudson says he’s seen a significant shift towards the Dems in polling as Dems unite, “peaking really at the right time.” He’s describing a situation in which the Dems and DCCC are shattering fundraising records… https://t.co/tUs5QODwmH

— Olivia Beavers (@Olivia_Beavers) August 15, 2024

Trump up 4 in Georgia but down in NC doesn't compute to me. Also down 5 in Arizona but up in Nevada. Weird numbers.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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Trump up 4 in Georgia but down in NC doesn't compute to me. Also down 5 in Arizona but up in Nevada. Weird numbers.

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Those all make sense to me. NC is more of an east coast state and similar to VA, which is often blue. GA is more deep south and should be in the Trump camp. A lot of lingering anti-Trump emotions in AZ after he publicly attacked their beloved Senator McCain. Whether any Trumpers like it or not, his behavior has consequences.

Sure but you can always find fundraising pleas as to how critical it is to send either side money immediately. And the NRCC has to decide how to divvy up funds between GOP incumbents/challengers, so there's always gonna be a fight about that, basically (leaks, accusations, etc). I found that Dem-poll interesting, is all. Again, I don't really understand/know that race/district, though.

And Dem infighting is also a big deal within Pennsylvania, not just that Fetterman wanted to sink Shapiro's VP chances. McClelland (am I the only one having civil war reading flashbacks?) is also lashing out (she's the 10th district nominee) at others in the Dem PA establishment.

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The problems with the Democratic candidate for state treasurer have been lingering since she upended party favorite state Rep. Ryan Bizzarro in the Democratic primary, her fifth turn at running for office in the past 10 years, but what really set off members of her own party were the swipes she made at Shapiro that caught national attention. Last week, at a press event for Harris, Pennsylvania Democratic Party Chairman Sharif Street said he was "offended" by McClelland's comments.

McClelland had posted on social media that she had endorsed Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC), not Shapiro, to be Harris's running mate. That's fine enough: She is entitled to her own choice. It was what she said next, however, that didn't go down well with statewide Democrats.

"I want a VP pick that's secure enough to be second under a woman, is content to be VP & won't undermine the President to maneuver his own election & doesn't sweep sexual harassment under the rug. I want someone that can speak to rural voters. That is @RoyCooperNC," McClelland wrote in one of several posts she put up criticizing her own party and Shapiro.

Street said at the campaign event everybody's entitled to an opinion, adding, "Certainly, I think, Vice President Harris, whoever she picks, we're going to stand behind her, she's going to do a great job. … But, I'll tell you, I'm offended by that … by the post. I'm personally offended, and I'll have conversations with our nominee for treasurer separately."

McClelland's line about sexual harassment was a reference to a situation last year in which former Legislative Affairs Secretary Mike Vereb resigned from his position amid harassment allegations and the governor's office paid to settle the complaint filed against

McClelland has always had a bit of a love-hate relationship with her own party. She has run a total of three times in congressional elections, once dropping out before the primary. Last year, she ran in the Democratic primary for Allegheny County executive, dropping out a few weeks before the primary election after she failed to submit signatures to the county election division.

When she ran against Bizzarro this spring, few Democrats thought she would make it through her fifth try. She did, though, surprising everyone. She now will face incumbent Republican Treasurer Stacy Garrity, a former businesswoman and Army reservist who deployed to Iraq three times.

In 2020, when President Joe Biden won Pennsylvania, Garrity, with little money and no name recognition, won the statewide election handily.

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Maybe some of that drama is why she's not doing that well in the 10th. But party infighting won't help up or down ballot, as the GOP can attest from AZ, MI, OR, etc. I am starting to feel a little better about PA for the GOP.

NC is going to be within a point or two of Georgia in actual results. Likely a point to the right. In no world do those results make sense. Sorry.

TRM said:

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Interesting because the NRCC feel they're falling behind.

Another source on the call tells me Hudson is sounding the alarm.

Hudson says he’s seen a significant shift towards the Dems in polling as Dems unite, “peaking really at the right time.” He’s describing a situation in which the Dems and DCCC are shattering fundraising records… https://t.co/tUs5QODwmH

— Olivia Beavers (@Olivia_Beavers) August 15, 2024

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Shattering fundraising records?!?!? THEY'RE LAUNDERING EFFING MONEY!!!! Everyone knows it and nothing is going to happen. They're downright gleeful about it. Dems are scum. Pure scum.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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NC is going to be within a point or two of Georgia in actual results. Agree, more or less.

In no world do those results make sense. Sorry. Absolutely makes sense. In the three elections 2008-2016, GA on average was 2.2% more (R) than NC. 2020 was a fluke. Sorry.

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MemphisAg1 said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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NC is going to be within a point or two of Georgia in actual results. Agree, more or less.

In no world do those results make sense. Sorry. Absolutely makes sense. In the three elections 2008-2016, GA on average was 2.2% more (R) than NC. 2020 was a fluke. Sorry.

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If you agree that they will be within a point or two, how does a 6 point difference make total sense.

Also, your analysis of Georgia and North Carolina and what other states they are like was right…twenty years ago.

In 2024, Georgia has less and less in common with their neighboring southern states. Atlanta and suburbs have attracted hundreds of thousands of educated/credentialed individuals from all over the country. The black population of Georgia is much more credentialed/educated and affluent than the black population of states like Mississippi and Alabama. Trump has cut into the black vote with working class black men, which is not the black population of Atlanta, which skews younger, wealthier, and again more educated/credentialed. It is a state that will continue to have less and less in common with its geographic neighbors. The rural parts do Georgia absolutely are similar to rural parts of Mississippi and Alabama, but their influence is fading.

North Carolina has a similar issue with the growth of Charlotte and the research triangle. With all of the colleges in NC, there was always pockets of the "educated" liberal, but they have been aided with the new young professionals moving into the state.

Regarding Virginia, it has only shifted left in the last 20 years because of the rapid growth of our federal government and those people swarming the Virginia suburbs of DC. Take those people away and Virginia is very similar culturally, demographically, and politically to a state like South Carolina.

North Carolina's shift left is nothing like Virginia's shift left.

I've lived in GA three times, including recently. Different location each time: Atlanta, Savannah, Athens. Voted in the 2020 election there. Have a very good sense for the state. 2020 was a fluke driven by Dem fraud and system abuse, largely in Fulton County. Gov Kemp and the legislature have cleaned a lot of that up since then.

We'll see how the votes land in this election, but GA being slightly more red than NC is not a shocker at all.

VA being more red than NC would be a shocker. Agree on VA; I spend a lot of time in NOVA and the Dem influence is clear.

And for AZ, I'm not surprised by any anti-Trump sentiment showing up there due to his treatment of McCain. Probably a small slice of the electorate, but in races this close, small margins matter.

I of course want Trump to win because a Harris presidency would be a disaster.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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Trump up 4 in Georgia but down in NC doesn't compute to me. Also down 5 in Arizona but up in Nevada. Weird numbers.

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Arizona cross tabs show a recalled vote of 51-44 Biden over Trump. The actual results were +.3 for Biden. They have a too heavily Democrat leaning independent sample it appears.

MemphisAg1 said:

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I've lived in GA three times, including recently. Different location each time. Voted in the 2020 election there. Have a very good sense for the state. 2020 was a fluke driven by Dem fraud and system abuse, largely in Fulton County. Gov Kemp and the legislature have cleaned a lot of that up since then.

We'll see how the votes land in this election, but GA being slightly more red than NC is not a shocker at all.

VA being more red than NC would be a shocker. Agree on VA; I spend a lot of time in NOVA and the Dem influence is clear..

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6 points is not slightly more red. It's a bad poll.

Also, in no way was I saying Virginia would be more red than North Carolina. I'm just explaining why I think your comparison of North Carolina to Virginia is a poor one.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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6 points is not slightly more red. It's a bad poll.

Also, in no way was I saying Virginia would be more red than North Carolina. I'm just explaining why I think your comparison of North Carolina to Virginia is a poor one.

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Polls have random error. You can't compare the mean of one to the mean of others without accounting for the sampling error. If the random error was 3 pts, they could essentially be the same and still show up as 6 different. I'm not claiming that GA is 6 pts more red than NC, but I am stating it is not a shocker for GA to show up slightly more red than NC.

I didn't interpret your comments as VA is more red than NC. I was just stating that would be a shocker, whereas GA being more red than NC is not.

Thanks for the discussion; I'm done with this one. Lots of people will claim to be experts on polls in the coming weeks, and then we'll get to see how it actually plays out... which will not match the polls exactly.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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Trump up 4 in Georgia but down in NC doesn't compute to me. Also down 5 in Arizona but up in Nevada. Weird numbers.

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There is no way possible Trump wins Georgia and loses NC

MemphisAg1 said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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Trump up 4 in Georgia but down in NC doesn't compute to me. Also down 5 in Arizona but up in Nevada. Weird numbers.

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Those all make sense to me. NC is more of an east coast state and similar to VA, which is often blue. GA is more deep south and should be in the Trump camp. A lot of lingering anti-Trump emotions in AZ after he publicly attacked their beloved Senator McCain. Whether any Trumpers like it or not, his behavior has consequences.

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Georgia has 3x as many blacks as a % than NC, there's no way he wins Georgia and not NC

Quo Vadis? said:

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MemphisAg1 said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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Trump up 4 in Georgia but down in NC doesn't compute to me. Also down 5 in Arizona but up in Nevada. Weird numbers.

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Those all make sense to me. NC is more of an east coast state and similar to VA, which is often blue. GA is more deep south and should be in the Trump camp. A lot of lingering anti-Trump emotions in AZ after he publicly attacked their beloved Senator McCain. Whether any Trumpers like it or not, his behavior has consequences.

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Georgia has 3x as many blacks as a % than NC, there's no way he wins Georgia and not NC

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If the voting rules are back to pre-2020, there is no way he loses either....

TyHolden said:

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Quo Vadis? said:

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MemphisAg1 said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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Trump up 4 in Georgia but down in NC doesn't compute to me. Also down 5 in Arizona but up in Nevada. Weird numbers.

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Those all make sense to me. NC is more of an east coast state and similar to VA, which is often blue. GA is more deep south and should be in the Trump camp. A lot of lingering anti-Trump emotions in AZ after he publicly attacked their beloved Senator McCain. Whether any Trumpers like it or not, his behavior has consequences.

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Georgia has 3x as many blacks as a % than NC, there's no way he wins Georgia and not NC

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If the voting rules are back to pre-2020, there is no way he loses either....

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This brings up an interesting question.

What are the voting rules per swing state? How do these rules compare pre/post Covid and what are the implications and predications based on those changes?

For example some - Michigan - what are the rules today vs Covid rules? How will those rules affect the outcome?

Also, what do we know about Zuckerberg and his plans? He invested 400M into polling locations in 2020 that caused some serious issues.

GenericAggie said:

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TyHolden said:

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Quo Vadis? said:

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MemphisAg1 said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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Trump up 4 in Georgia but down in NC doesn't compute to me. Also down 5 in Arizona but up in Nevada. Weird numbers.

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Those all make sense to me. NC is more of an east coast state and similar to VA, which is often blue. GA is more deep south and should be in the Trump camp. A lot of lingering anti-Trump emotions in AZ after he publicly attacked their beloved Senator McCain. Whether any Trumpers like it or not, his behavior has consequences.

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Georgia has 3x as many blacks as a % than NC, there's no way he wins Georgia and not NC

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If the voting rules are back to pre-2020, there is no way he loses either....

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This brings up an interesting question.

What are the voting rules per swing state? How do these rules compare pre/post Covid and what are the implications and predications based on those changes?

For example some - Michigan - what are the rules today vs Covid rules? How will those rules affect the outcome?

Also, what do we know about Zuckerberg and his plans? He invested 400M into polling locations in 2020 that caused some serious issues.

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As for Zuck, Biden has another plan for that.

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3481204

GenericAggie said:

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TyHolden said:

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Quo Vadis? said:

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MemphisAg1 said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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Trump up 4 in Georgia but down in NC doesn't compute to me. Also down 5 in Arizona but up in Nevada. Weird numbers.

---

Those all make sense to me. NC is more of an east coast state and similar to VA, which is often blue. GA is more deep south and should be in the Trump camp. A lot of lingering anti-Trump emotions in AZ after he publicly attacked their beloved Senator McCain. Whether any Trumpers like it or not, his behavior has consequences.

---

Georgia has 3x as many blacks as a % than NC, there's no way he wins Georgia and not NC

---

If the voting rules are back to pre-2020, there is no way he loses either....

---

This brings up an interesting question.

What are the voting rules per swing state? How do these rules compare pre/post Covid and what are the implications and predications based on those changes?

For example some - Michigan - what are the rules today vs Covid rules? How will those rules affect the outcome?

Also, what do we know about Zuckerberg and his plans? He invested 400M into polling locations in 2020 that caused some serious issues.

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There have been a lot of changes.

Michigan is no longer mailing a ballot to every registered voter, and in NC and Georgia you have to show an actual photo ID to vote. Wisconsin is fighting with their Supreme Court to outlaw drop boxes, and in Pennsylvania only mail in ballots received on Election Day, regardless of when mailed are being counted (2020 they counted up until 3 days after Election Day)

Arizona is worrisome they haven't done much of anything.

Quo Vadis? said:

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There is no way possible Trump wins Georgia and loses NC

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Of course there isn't, but there is a conceivable reality where he loses both of them. If there is a reasonably close race, an honest pollster who is not intentionally thumbing the scale is going to produce an occasional counterintuitive result like, say, Harris +2 in both Wisconsin and Minnesota. Statistical reality dictates that such results will occur.

It is pointless to object to a single polling data point or worse yet (shudder) the crosstabs.

Quote:

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Arizona is worrisome they haven't done much of anything.

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Not for lack of trying. Governor Hobbs has had a very large number of vetoes plus they have the misfortune of being in the 9th Circuit.

YokelRidesAgain said:

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Quo Vadis? said:

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There is no way possible Trump wins Georgia and loses NC

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Of course there isn't, but there is a conceivable reality where he loses both of them. If there is a reasonably close race, an honest pollster who is not intentionally thumbing the scale is going to produce an occasional counterintuitive result like, say, Harris +2 in both Wisconsin and Minnesota. Statistical reality dictates that such results will occur.

It is pointless to object to a single polling data point or worse yet (shudder) the crosstabs.

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Indeed im not saying NC or Georgia are in the bag, I'm saying if he loses NC, he definitely loses Georgia. There is no world where he wins Georgia by 4 and loses NC

2024 National GE, Among Likely Voters:

Harris 51% (+6)
Trump 45%

.@Ipsos/@ABC/@washingtonpost, 8/9-13https://t.co/1bGAFKhFKQ https://t.co/DZSqMNQ9h6 pic.twitter.com/xXkmnhRv2F

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 18, 2024

🇺🇲 2024 GE: CBS News/YouGov (with leans)

🟦 Harris: 51% [+1]
🟥 Trump: 48% [-1]

Battlegrounds
🟦 Harris: 50% [=]
🟥 Trump: 50% [=]
—
Full field
🟦 Harris: 49% [=]
🟥 Trump: 47% [=]
🟨 RFK Jr: 2%
🟪 Other: 2%

[+/- change vs 8/2]
——
Battleground-state estimates...… pic.twitter.com/FF9yCLBjVj

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 18, 2024

Hmmmm....

Good morning. Trump has caught Kamala in the betting markets, Kamala’s lead was up to 10% before her economics speech, now they are dead even again. Looks like Kamala’s political honeymoon is over. pic.twitter.com/UzOWzz1snl

— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) August 18, 2024

Those numbers below are why Trump has a great chance of being the winner.

If you took out identity politics and blind party loyalty, this race wouldn't even be close.

What is wrong with Democrats? pic.twitter.com/YU5ygZvHRb

— Kyle Becker (@kylenabecker) August 18, 2024

he should come out super gracious at the debate, thank her for her service, say what an inspiration she is with her groundbreaking VP status. She's looking for a slugfest where she can "rise above" his personality defects. If he comes out with the olive branch, she's got nothing but 4 years of terrible policies. Then it will be time to either throw Old Man Biden under the bus or panic.

The Porkchop Express said:

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he should come out super gracious at the debate, thank her for her service, say what an inspiration she is with her groundbreaking VP status. She's looking for a slugfest where she can "rise above" his personality defects. If he comes out with the olive branch, she's got nothing but 4 years of terrible policies. Then it will be time to either throw Old Man Biden under the bus or panic.

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Yeah, he's probably going to make fun of her ancestors and challenge her to arm wrestle, but that's our dude.

Barnyard96 said:

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"Because you'd be in jail" was the line that beat Hillary.

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One of the most amazing moments of my life watching that live .

I love how all these polls showing a tight race use registered voters and heavily skewed samples. These pollsters are pathetic.