That may not happen and media will provide cover for her.Rockdoc said:
Not gonna be too interested in polls until about a week after she opens her mouth and answers real questions without a teleprompter.
magically. because the lowest rated VP in history and part of the current disastrous administration just decided to bring joy to politics two weeks ago.Hungry Ojos said:
So he's down in every swing state?
oh no said:magically. because the lowest rated VP in history and part of the current disastrous administration just decided to bring joy to politics two weeks ago.Hungry Ojos said:
So he's down in every swing state?
Early voting starts in a month and a half in several states. They have already gone 25 days without answering any real questions or doing anything other than campaign produced events. She has the convention coming up in less than two weeks and then early voting will start a month after that. If you don't think the media and her campaign will work together to run out the clock, you are kidding yourself.SA68AG said:That may not happen and media will provide cover for her.Rockdoc said:
Not gonna be too interested in polls until about a week after she opens her mouth and answers real questions without a teleprompter.
Trump needs to begin filling the vacuum she's leaving by citing what her stated positions are and stating what his are in comparison.
Unless it has changed, early voting in PA is extremely long, like 57 days before an election?Captn_Ag05 said:Early voting starts in a month and a half in several states. They have already gone 25 days without answering any real questions or doing anything other than campaign produced events. She has the convention coming up in less than two weeks and then early voting will start a month after that. If you don't think the media and her campaign will work together to run out the clock, you are kidding yourself.SA68AG said:That may not happen and media will provide cover for her.Rockdoc said:
Not gonna be too interested in polls until about a week after she opens her mouth and answers real questions without a teleprompter.
Trump needs to begin filling the vacuum she's leaving by citing what her stated positions are and stating what his are in comparison.
I believe PA allows counties to set their own process with some allowing for mail-in and absentee ballots as early as 60 days out, which is coming up really quickly. They will be banking votes before Kamala has to even open her mouth or do anything other than a campaign or DNC produced event.aggiehawg said:Unless it has changed, early voting in PA is extremely long, like 57 days before an election?Captn_Ag05 said:Early voting starts in a month and a half in several states. They have already gone 25 days without answering any real questions or doing anything other than campaign produced events. She has the convention coming up in less than two weeks and then early voting will start a month after that. If you don't think the media and her campaign will work together to run out the clock, you are kidding yourself.SA68AG said:That may not happen and media will provide cover for her.Rockdoc said:
Not gonna be too interested in polls until about a week after she opens her mouth and answers real questions without a teleprompter.
Trump needs to begin filling the vacuum she's leaving by citing what her stated positions are and stating what his are in comparison.
Captn_Ag05 said:FAU is a below average pollster. Their final poll in 2020 in Florida had Biden up by 2 and Trump won the state by 3.dreyOO said:
Trump by 3 in Florida? Laughable. So many activist pollsters
He won by 3.29.Jack Boyette said:Captn_Ag05 said:FAU is a below average pollster. Their final poll in 2020 in Florida had Biden up by 2 and Trump won the state by 3.dreyOO said:
Trump by 3 in Florida? Laughable. So many activist pollsters
He won it by almost 5.
LUNTZ: President Trump is doing better with union members than any Republican in decades.
— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) August 14, 2024
In my focus groups, union members say union leaders "don't speak for me." pic.twitter.com/En1mWP6C3H
Trump is still leading by 2.4 in the RCP average. He won NC by 3.8% in 2016 and 1.4% in 2020, so the 2.4% is in the range I would expect. Trump and Harris are campaigning there this week, so they clearly consider it a tight race still. NC is a must win for Trump and I think he will but it will likely be very close again.Jack Boyette said:
Harris up in North Carolina?
#New @MonmouthPoll (With Leaners)
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) August 14, 2024
🔵 Harris 48% (+5)
🔴 Trump 43%
Monmouth #A+ - RV - 8/12
I called it a hundred times that if Trump was the nominee we would lose Georgia and Arizona and likely North Carolina this time.Captn_Ag05 said:Trump is still leading by 2.4 in the RCP average. He won NC by 3.8% in 2016 and 1.4% in 2020, so the 2.4% is in the range I would expect. Trump and Harris are campaigning there this week, so they clearly consider it a tight race still. NC is a must win for Trump and I think he will but it will likely be very close again.Jack Boyette said:
Harris up in North Carolina?
BREAKING: Trump is reportedly in talks about firing his campaign managers Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles, according to former Trump aide Anthony Scaramucci.
— Leading Report (@LeadingReport) August 14, 2024
Trump campaign accounts of Chris LaCivita and Jason Miller deactivated following viral email push.
— AF Post (@AFpost) August 14, 2024
Follow: @AFpost pic.twitter.com/qVFavJDwxZ
BREAKING: Former President Trump is leading Kamala Harris nationally by two percentage points, according to a Daily Mail/J.L. Partners survey.
— Leading Report (@LeadingReport) August 14, 2024
Barnyard96 said:
Called what? Its August.
Dude you are embarrassing. You hate Trump, we get it. Anytime a poll comes out, you are the first to bash Trump. It is like you want him to loseLMCane said:I called it a hundred times that if Trump was the nominee we would lose Georgia and Arizona and likely North Carolina this time.Captn_Ag05 said:Trump is still leading by 2.4 in the RCP average. He won NC by 3.8% in 2016 and 1.4% in 2020, so the 2.4% is in the range I would expect. Trump and Harris are campaigning there this week, so they clearly consider it a tight race still. NC is a must win for Trump and I think he will but it will likely be very close again.Jack Boyette said:
Harris up in North Carolina?
we might win Georgia now and still lose Arizona and PA and the election is over
if NC is lost - it's an even worse blowout than in 2020
EMBARASSING!
but what does Trump really care? he will be back at Mar A Lago and the rest of us have to deal with this nightmare
So Trump doesn't care....LMCane said:I called it a hundred times that if Trump was the nominee we would lose Georgia and Arizona and likely North Carolina this time.Captn_Ag05 said:Trump is still leading by 2.4 in the RCP average. He won NC by 3.8% in 2016 and 1.4% in 2020, so the 2.4% is in the range I would expect. Trump and Harris are campaigning there this week, so they clearly consider it a tight race still. NC is a must win for Trump and I think he will but it will likely be very close again.Jack Boyette said:
Harris up in North Carolina?
we might win Georgia now and still lose Arizona and PA and the election is over
if NC is lost - it's an even worse blowout than in 2020
EMBARASSING!
but what does Trump really care? he will be back at Mar A Lago and the rest of us have to deal with this nightmare
Working on filling up a new weekly bin with almost zero RCP-approved polls.
— Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports (@Mark_R_Mitchell) August 14, 2024
Mainstream pollsters are the least curious they have been all year.
Surely nothing untoward is happening? pic.twitter.com/bS3kdKDdVn
WestAustinAg said:
Mark Mitchell of Rasmussen has been talking for about a week on how there are very few RCP approved polls that have come out in almost 2 weeks. He thinks the main pollsters are hiding bad Kamala/Walz information and so they just bury the poll until the data gets better for their favorite candidate.Working on filling up a new weekly bin with almost zero RCP-approved polls.
— Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports (@Mark_R_Mitchell) August 14, 2024
Mainstream pollsters are the least curious they have been all year.
Surely nothing untoward is happening? pic.twitter.com/bS3kdKDdVn
WestAustinAg said:
Mark Mitchell of Rasmussen has been talking for about a week on how there are very few RCP approved polls that have come out in almost 2 weeks. He thinks the main pollsters are hiding bad Kamala/Walz information and so they just bury the poll until the data gets better for their favorite candidate.Working on filling up a new weekly bin with almost zero RCP-approved polls.
— Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports (@Mark_R_Mitchell) August 14, 2024
Mainstream pollsters are the least curious they have been all year.
Surely nothing untoward is happening? pic.twitter.com/bS3kdKDdVn
After 2020, RCP revised their procedures for using polls in their average. If their internals don't meet the criteria, RCP will put them as outliers and not part of the average. That tends to discourage people to continue to pay for crap polling.WestAustinAg said:
This close to an election...we should have 2 or 3 times the number of high quality polls out than have been released...
In Fulton County, just get Ashleigh Merchant on it. That gal is nails, very very impressive. I wouldn't wish to be opposing counsel in court against her. Destroyed Fani Willis and Wade, then destroyed Judge Glanvill in the Young Thug case when on of her fellow criminal defense attorneys was being improperly threatened with criminal contempt. She twenty-five other crim defense attorneys were in that courtroom within an hour or so of Steel being taken into custody.oh no said:
flipping back AZ and GA and holding onto NC are required. 100%. Lose any one and Trump is done. Marxist regime continues its destruction. Tons of focus needs to be in those three states, and especially monitoring the shenanigans in Maricopa co and Fulton co. Then, the path to 270 is to just win one of the three in the blue wall.
Of the three, polling is the best for Trump in PA, but I believe the shenanigans in PA makes it too far gone, regardless of the polling and how most of the people in PA really feel. Philly and Allegheny Co will know what they need to do again- for days after election day if necessary. Their sec of state already warned the world what they're going to do.
I think the campaign should focus hard on WI, next closest blue wall state, but if Youngkin's executive order for paper ballots and cleaning registration rolls holds, VA could be in play. That would be huge, as WI would no longer be required, or it would reverse the damage if AZ or GA shenanigans are successful again. Force the Harris campaign to have to spend a lot of resources there at least.
The Harris campaign's path to 270 is much simpler: make sure the shenanigans are funded and ready to go again in Fulton Co, Maricopa Co., Philly, Allegheny co, Detroit/Wayne Co. They have the script from 2020. Only need to wait and see how many they need in a few of those states and then keep counting mailed in ballots until they get the result again.
2023NCAggies said:
50-49 Trump in latest Fox News poll. They usually lean Democrat in polling
So that is not good news at all for Harris. For Harris to even have a chance, I think she needs to be at least +2% in the national average
