Muh Polls

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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to JDUB08AG • 6:09p, 7/31/24
JDUB08AG said:
I think Harris is close to her high water mark too. I really don't see her being able to sway a large portion of the population once the dust settles. She has a lot of negatives to defend once this gets going and she's not likable.


Here's the problem with that line of thinking. Early voting starts in 45 days. She gets the media honeymoon now. Then she names the VP pick and gets another honeymoon. Then the convention for another honeymoon. Then people start mailing in ballots. There is not much time at all for the honeymoon to die down and for people to actually start looking at policy positions. A lot of people will be swayed by emotional responses over the next month or so. There is not much time for people to figure out who she actually is and for the media hype to die down.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to oh no • 6:13p, 7/31/24
oh no said:
McInnis 03 said:
Disregard all you want but the data is either right and alarming or it's manufactured and designed to keep flustered voters at home on the couch.

A very public gaffe would be great about now.

all this time I thought maybe, just maybe, if any swing states did anything at all about election integrity and the conversion of absentee voting into untraceable and unvouchable mass-mailed, mickey mouse, banana republic **** shows, it was GA and AZ. and all this time I thought PA was long gone, as in forever gone and captured by communists... ...but this poll map would seem to indicate the opposite.



Anybody freaking out about a morning consult prediction needs to sleep until after the election

One of the worst polls out there. Garbage
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2023NCAggies
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6:37p, 7/31/24
Waiting on Emerson and HarrisX polling on states

Y'all need to chill TF out lol. Acting like y'all didn't expect polling to switch quickly. That's their doing, trying to fire up their base with garbage polling

And it's doing what I hoped it'd do. It's firing up our base and not letting RNC sit back and relax.

What I predict happening is a giant false prop up (happening now) things eventually leveling out with Harris taking the national average lead by +1 or 2. Swing states close as hell.

But come election it's 2016 + Nevada. Blowout.

Just watch. And the MSM will have screwed themselves again with credibility. Adding to their slow death

Weather y'all agree or not big tech is way less involved this election. Facebook is quickly fixing their mistakes and X leans R. Google is bad but they are not near as bad as 2020

Keep donating. That's the biggest thing. RNC needs to at least match Dems
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Barnyard96
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 6:38p, 7/31/24
AG
Well, we're gonna have one or two here waking up each morning and freaking out.
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SoyTanLento
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 7:56p, 7/31/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
Georgia has gone from a fairly safe Trump lead to tossup with Kamala. Black female vote will be huge for her there.
Trump won't win GA. Far too many GA Republicans and moderates don't want anything to do with him - see Walker vs Warnock.
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Barnyard96
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In reply to SoyTanLento • 7:58p, 7/31/24
AG



Georgia
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will25u
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8:15p, 7/31/24
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aginlakeway
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In reply to SoyTanLento • 9:22p, 7/31/24
AG
ImSoDumb said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Georgia has gone from a fairly safe Trump lead to tossup with Kamala. Black female vote will be huge for her there.
Trump won't win GA. Far too many GA Republicans and moderates don't want anything to do with him - see Walker vs Warnock.

How do you know that for sure on July 31?
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
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Claverack
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In reply to SoyTanLento • 9:26p, 7/31/24
ImSoDumb said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Georgia has gone from a fairly safe Trump lead to tossup with Kamala. Black female vote will be huge for her there.
Trump won't win GA. Far too many GA Republicans and moderates don't want anything to do with him - see Walker vs Warnock.


This isn't 2020.

The Democrat Party has a record to run on. It has not been successful.

Trump wins Georgia because this White House is a failure in economic, domestic and foreign policy results.
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SoyTanLento
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 9:34p, 7/31/24
Barnyard96 said:



Georgia
Remove the pre-Biden announcement polls.
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SoyTanLento
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In reply to aginlakeway • 9:36p, 7/31/24
aginlakeway said:
ImSoDumb said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Georgia has gone from a fairly safe Trump lead to tossup with Kamala. Black female vote will be huge for her there.
Trump won't win GA. Far too many GA Republicans and moderates don't want anything to do with him - see Walker vs Warnock.

How do you know that for sure on July 31?
I do this dumb thing where I look at past history, make inferences, and draw conclusions.
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SoyTanLento
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In reply to Claverack • 9:37p, 7/31/24
Claverack said:
ImSoDumb said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Georgia has gone from a fairly safe Trump lead to tossup with Kamala. Black female vote will be huge for her there.
Trump won't win GA. Far too many GA Republicans and moderates don't want anything to do with him - see Walker vs Warnock.


This isn't 2020.

The Democrat Party has a record to run on. It has not been successful.

Trump wins Georgia because this White House is a failure in economic, domestic and foreign policy results.
What about Walker's failed Senate run in 2022 don't you get? It was a referendum on Trump in GA and he lost.
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Claverack
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In reply to SoyTanLento • 9:42p, 7/31/24
ImSoDumb said:
Claverack said:
ImSoDumb said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Georgia has gone from a fairly safe Trump lead to tossup with Kamala. Black female vote will be huge for her there.
Trump won't win GA. Far too many GA Republicans and moderates don't want anything to do with him - see Walker vs Warnock.


This isn't 2020.

The Democrat Party has a record to run on. It has not been successful.

Trump wins Georgia because this White House is a failure in economic, domestic and foreign policy results.
What about Walker's failed Senate run in 2022 don't you get? It was a referendum on Trump in GA and he lost.


Relying on Herschel Walker to save you in 2024 is a pipe dream.

You are operating under the assumption your collective orgasm for Blowhard will last forever.

When it dies down and people remember the Democrats they elected in 2020 failed them comprehensively these last four years, then you will find out Georgia is not voting for the Joeless Ho.

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aginlakeway
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In reply to SoyTanLento • 9:43p, 7/31/24
AG
ImSoDumb said:
aginlakeway said:
ImSoDumb said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Georgia has gone from a fairly safe Trump lead to tossup with Kamala. Black female vote will be huge for her there.
Trump won't win GA. Far too many GA Republicans and moderates don't want anything to do with him - see Walker vs Warnock.

How do you know that for sure on July 31?
I do this dumb thing where I look at past history, make inferences, and draw conclusions.

OK. But I don't understand how on July 31, you're 100% sure of how things will go in Georgia later this fall. No one is 100% sure how will win. You would be the only person who is certain.

Everyone else (including experts) who don't know ... what are they doing wrong?
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
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TexasAggie_97
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In reply to Claverack • 9:43p, 7/31/24
AG
Claverack said:
ImSoDumb said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Georgia has gone from a fairly safe Trump lead to tossup with Kamala. Black female vote will be huge for her there.
Trump won't win GA. Far too many GA Republicans and moderates don't want anything to do with him - see Walker vs Warnock.


This isn't 2020.

The Democrat Party has a record to run on. It has not been successful.

Trump wins Georgia because this White House is a failure in economic, domestic and foreign policy results.
Do you really think the stupid voters care about that? They will vote against their own interests because their leaders tell them too.
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to TexasAggie_97 • 9:46p, 7/31/24
AG
TexasAggie_97 said:
Claverack said:
ImSoDumb said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Georgia has gone from a fairly safe Trump lead to tossup with Kamala. Black female vote will be huge for her there.
Trump won't win GA. Far too many GA Republicans and moderates don't want anything to do with him - see Walker vs Warnock.


This isn't 2020.

The Democrat Party has a record to run on. It has not been successful.

Trump wins Georgia because this White House is a failure in economic, domestic and foreign policy results.
Do you really think the stupid voters care about that? They will vote against their own interests because their leaders tell them too.
This. Many people will twist whatever they need to mentally to vote Democrat.
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Claverack
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In reply to TexasAggie_97 • 9:47p, 7/31/24
TexasAggie_97 said:
Claverack said:
ImSoDumb said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Georgia has gone from a fairly safe Trump lead to tossup with Kamala. Black female vote will be huge for her there.
Trump won't win GA. Far too many GA Republicans and moderates don't want anything to do with him - see Walker vs Warnock.


This isn't 2020.

The Democrat Party has a record to run on. It has not been successful.

Trump wins Georgia because this White House is a failure in economic, domestic and foreign policy results.
Do you really think the stupid voters care about that? They will vote against their own interests because their leaders tell them too.


People can and do change their minds when a party in power deprives them of about 20% of their spending power over the course of four years.
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TexAgs91
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In reply to TexasAggie_97 • 9:49p, 7/31/24
AG
Unfortunately this is true.
Fight! Fight! Fight!
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to Claverack • 9:52p, 7/31/24
AG
Claverack said:
TexasAggie_97 said:
Claverack said:
ImSoDumb said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Georgia has gone from a fairly safe Trump lead to tossup with Kamala. Black female vote will be huge for her there.
Trump won't win GA. Far too many GA Republicans and moderates don't want anything to do with him - see Walker vs Warnock.


This isn't 2020.

The Democrat Party has a record to run on. It has not been successful.

Trump wins Georgia because this White House is a failure in economic, domestic and foreign policy results.
Do you really think the stupid voters care about that? They will vote against their own interests because their leaders tell them too.


People can and do change their minds when a party in power deprives them of about 20% of their spending power over the course of four years.
You would be shocked at how few that number is.
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BBRex
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9:57p, 7/31/24
AG
I think Kamala gets a, for want of a better term, dead cat bounce as Democrats show some enthusiasm over replacing Joe. But she was dreadful in her 2020 campaign, and I expect those numbers to cool as the campaign wears on.
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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to BBRex • 10:00p, 7/31/24
The election is less than 100 days away. Very easy to do almost no campaigning and have the media and celebs campaign for you. Just like we were telling Trump to shut up after the debate so Biden could flounder, Harris will try the same. She's not going to do any unscripted interviews.
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rgag12
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In reply to AtticusMatlock • 10:05p, 7/31/24
AG
AtticusMatlock said:
The election is less than 100 days away. Very easy to do almost no campaigning and have the media and celebs campaign for you. Just like we were telling Trump to shut up after the debate so Biden could flounder, Harris will try the same. She's not going to do any unscripted interviews.


Agree, she will debate Trump once or twice. In the debates all she has to do is be more focused and intelligible than Biden was and America will proclaim her the victor.

Then all she'll do is campaign stop stump speeches and coast into election night.
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BBRex
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In reply to rgag12 • 10:16p, 7/31/24
AG
I think being the sitting VP is likely to force her hand. She's going to either have to defend Joe's policies or take some time to outline her own. Joe, as a challenger, had more ability to duck.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to AtticusMatlock • 10:33p, 7/31/24
AtticusMatlock said:
The election is less than 100 days away. Very easy to do almost no campaigning and have the media and celebs campaign for you. Just like we were telling Trump to shut up after the debate so Biden could flounder, Harris will try the same. She's not going to do any unscripted interviews.


That's an eternity in politics lmao Go cry in the corner

War all over, inflation, and 20 million illegals wrecking havoc in cities. No one can buy a house

And y'all think she can just hide? She's doing rallies, which means she plans to do a lot more. Why do y'all think they switched Biden out?

So she could bring the base together and campaign, at least give them a shot and help them down ballot. I'm not seeing where that says "hide out"

Get ready for debates and two furious parties going at each other. All while independents sit and at 70-30 lean R

Surprise. Blowout Rs.

Cannot wait for media meltdowns
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to BBRex • 10:46p, 7/31/24
BBRex said:
I think being the sitting VP is likely to force her hand. She's going to either have to defend Joe's policies or take some time to outline her own. Joe, as a challenger, had more ability to duck.


People on here have really bad PTSD from 2020 it's actually pathetic how many have come out in the last week. Go back in the corner Jesus.

You know she's in the spotlight no matter where she's at? Go to the grocery store and look at the prices. Look at the gas prices. Cost to live. 20 million allowed in.
Hide? Really?

That's her front and center. Y'all think Americans are stupid? Maybe, until it hurts. This election you can't hide. Issues are affecting people.

100 days might as well be a lifetime.

Independents-Oh this Harris lady looks refreshing. After 400 dollar grocery trip.
Let me look into this woman further…………..
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MemphisAg1
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 6:58a, 8/1/24
AG
2023NCAggies said:

Surprise. Blowout Rs.
I agree there's too much hand-wringing over Kamala's poll bump. It's bound to recede when she starts talking and her policy record becomes more clear to independent voters. She has rejuvenated the Dem base, but the election will be won or lost with those independents.

However, a blowout R projection strikes me as the equivalent of the hand-wringing, just on the opposite side of the spectrum. R Senate candidates in battlegrounds were typically trailing their D opponents, even when Trump was riding high compared to Biden. There's something going on there that doesn't smell like a R blowout to me.

Of course I would love that outcome, but it seems like a pipe dream at this stage. Coupled with a rate cut coming in September, the "buzz" will be that the economy has "turned the corner" and Biden's policies worked after all. I don't buy that BS, but the average voter goes by feelings and the mood of the moment.

I think the next 100 days are going to be ugly, culminating with a hotly contested election.
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nortex97
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In reply to SoyTanLento • 7:03a, 8/1/24
AG
ImSoDumb said:
aginlakeway said:
ImSoDumb said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Georgia has gone from a fairly safe Trump lead to tossup with Kamala. Black female vote will be huge for her there.
Trump won't win GA. Far too many GA Republicans and moderates don't want anything to do with him - see Walker vs Warnock.

How do you know that for sure on July 31?
I do this dumb thing where I look at past history, make inferences, and draw conclusions.
Trump is killing it with independents and I believe the Dems are not spending much at all in Georgia as it's off the table for them (and no senate race or governor even to justify the spend).

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MemphisAg1
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:06a, 8/1/24
AG
Trump at 27% of the black vote is a pipe dream.
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McInnis 03
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7:29a, 8/1/24
AG
Kennedy is pulling better numbers on the phone than I would have imagined.
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Captn_Ag05
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8:07a, 8/1/24
AG


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Barnyard96
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 8:31a, 8/1/24
AG

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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 9:02a, 8/1/24
AG
Barnyard96 said:

I also think the sampling size per state (400 respondents) is too small, particularly for a state like Wisconsin which is notoriously difficult to poll. Public Opinion Strategies (POS) is a republican aligned pollster and these polls were done for a Republican organization, so I don't think they are agenda driven, just perhaps poorly structured polls.
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BoDog
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 10:04a, 8/1/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Barnyard96 said:

I also think the sampling size per state (400 respondents) is too small, particularly for a state like Wisconsin which is notoriously difficult to poll. Public Opinion Strategies (POS) is a republican aligned pollster and these polls were done for a Republican organization, so I don't think they are agenda drive, just perhaps poorly structured polls.
400 respondents is a waste of everyone's time.
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Captn_Ag05
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10:26a, 8/1/24
AG


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LMCane
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 10:28a, 8/1/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
It is a couple of hours long, but if you want to spend some time listening to what Richard Baris (the People's pundit) is showing, this is a good watch. He just wrapped up national polling and really drills down into results by race, religion, income, sex, age, and how third parties impact the vote. He's confirming movement to Harris but Trump is still performing well with Hispanic and black men. Hispanic women may be a wildcard in this election, especially in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia.

https://www.youtube.com/live/00-TdKIGQS8?si=HxxO1KfNEiMVjWl-

he was dead wrong about the 2020 and 2022 elections- claimed Trump would win Arizona and Georgia.
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