Muh Polls

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nortex97
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8:23a, 7/30/24
AG
More bad news for Harris, who seems to have consolidated some of Dem support who had grown skeptical about re-electing a literal angry potato, but now will face a truly daunting task of getting more difficult/attentive voters who have more firmly established opinions of both her, and Trump.







No, not a 'likely voter' poll, but I think her being down 3-4 in national polls with realistic D:R:I breakouts is about what it sounds like this week. An LV poll showing Trump up 7 supports that (3 to 4) figure nationally:

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2023NCAggies
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In reply to nortex97 • 8:42a, 7/30/24
nortex97 said:
More bad news for Harris, who seems to have consolidated some of Dem support who had grown skeptical about re-electing a literal angry potato, but now will face a truly daunting task of getting more difficult/attentive voters who have more firmly established opinions of both her, and Trump.







No, not a 'likely voter' poll, but I think her being down 3-4 in national polls with realistic D:R:I breakouts is about what it sounds like this week. An LV poll showing Trump up 7 supports that (3 to 4) figure nationally:

I do not believe those approval numbers will stay long for Harris, they will try to keep her appearances limited and to try and keep it that way. But they cannot do that and win, plus it will hurt down ballot. She will have to campaign, and not just zoom calls

This is not 2020, there is no excuses for her

Also I do not believe her base is locked up either, she has the main hardcore base locked in but I think she is really around 85~90% with them, which they need 95%. The majority of their voters lost will go third parties or not vote. I am seeing a 2016 + Nevada for Trump

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LMCane
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In reply to Hungry Ojos • 8:57a, 7/30/24
Hungry Ojos said:
The Lake race proves unequivocally why the left is so much better at politics than the right. The left nominated Biden, then saw that they had made a huge mistake, then said "screw democracy, we need to win" and simply took another bite at the apple by swapping in Harris.

Lake is getting annihilated in the polls versus the Dem, head to head. So while we still have a chance to alter course and nominate someone more favorable, Republicans won't do it. They will simply watch their candidate get beat by double digits and throw their hands up.

Kari Lake is why republicans suck at politics.

Nikki Haley performed much better against the democrats in EVERY poll than Donald Trump.

you could say the same thing about our Presidential nominee as you are stating about Lake.
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nortex97
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 9:00a, 7/30/24
AG
She will have to campaign, I agree, and do interviews, which she is just not good at. Her appeal to different groups will drop off a cliff if she tries to go after Trump voters or RFK voters with yet more position changes. I don't see how she consolidates more Hispanic, or white male voters to her camp with the open borders ideations she will have to support to keep the current Marxist core.

It would take a very nimble, Bill Clinton at-his-peak abilities to pull that off, to be frank. It's more likely DJT will wind up pulling ahead further over the next couple weeks, then a slight tightening during their parade of lies known as a convention, and then your scenario makes sense. I see no decent polls giving her a great shot at Michigan at this point, let alone Georgia. Penn will be a coin flip as usual though.
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LMCane
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In reply to Hungry Ojos • 9:04a, 7/30/24
Lichtman was stating just two weeks ago that if they dumped Biden the democrats would lose! he will say whatever he wants. we can do the same test he uses and it is almost EVERY GOP WIN for all 13 issues:

literally one of his 13 rules is "incumbent" which has now switched to favor the GOP
The Keys to the White House is a checklist of 13 true/false statements that pertain to the circumstances surrounding a presidential election. If five or fewer of the following statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the election. If six or more are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose.

Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. (Favors GOP)

No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. (dumping Biden isnt' a primary contest!?!?) Favors GOP

Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. (Favors GOP Now)

No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. (RFK and Stein Favors GOP)

Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. (economy sucks favors GOP)

Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. (NOPE! Favors GOP)

Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. (Hamas supporters?!)

No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. (propping up a dementia patient?)

No foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. (afghanistan, Ukraine, Hamas /Israel?!)

Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. (nothing!)

Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (NOPE!)

Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.(nope!)
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LMCane
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 11:39a, 7/30/24
I believe it is true that Trump has outperformed his polling in the 2016 and 2020 races-

just not enough to win in 2020. there was a poll in Wisconsin Biden +14 and final result was under Biden +2

but in 2023 Trump UNDERPERFORMED the polls in the GOP primary.
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Captn_Ag05
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11:49a, 7/30/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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11:50a, 7/30/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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11:51a, 7/30/24
AG
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DonHenley
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11:51a, 7/30/24
AG
I don't know how people are giddy about Kamala. Sleepy Joe has been cooked for years, who do you think was the captain of the ship? If you disliked Joe for his policies, how can you like Kamala, when they were her policies too!!! She was helping run the country into ground with inflation, open borders, poor international relations, etc. Total failure as border czar. She has the same, if not worse policies that Biden had, so I can't see why any independent would suddenly be excited for the Dem ticket. Liberals are enthusiastic because Biden isn't running, but I don't understand why Indys would all of a sudden love her.
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will25u
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12:04p, 7/30/24
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aggiehawg
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12:07p, 7/30/24
AG
Quote:
These *******s had Trump up by 7 in their last poll (and that sample was R+3).

They have Harris up by 2 in the newest poll, a 9 point shift from the prior poll. However, the sample in this poll was D+6.

So that means, the ENTIRE shift came from the fact the sample became 9 points more Democrat.
Push polls.
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LMCane
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12:08p, 7/30/24
Nate Silver has actually been taking a ton of incoming flak from the leftists for his principled stands and truth telling regarding the reality of Biden and his dementia. Good news. B''h this comes to pass.

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LMCane
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In reply to Legal Custodian • 12:12p, 7/30/24
Legal Custodian said:
2023NCAggies said:
Man yall need to straighten up, it has been a week since Biden dropped out and nothing but glorifying Harris as the next Obama but a woman. Erasing her history. Raising huge sums of money.

Guess what, the worst poll I have seen for Trump is -2 nationally.

A lot of these polls are dogsh** btw, another way to drum up the fake hype. A lot of polling breakdowns do not make sense at all and it makes the polls look dumb AF and not trustworthy

And just something to think about, Trump outperformed the national polls by around 3~5 pts the last two elections. These polls still show a blowout
I agree with the sentiment around your posts wholeheartedly. But gotta correct you a little on the numbers.

Trump outperformed 2016 by 1.4% and 2020 by 3.5%. I had a post a while back about it, it's still a huge number though.

At this time 4 years ago, the polls had Biden at +9.1%. If it's now at worst Harris +2% then that's a 7% point swing in Trump's favor. That is absolutely massive. The only way I would start to get concerned is if we're in the beginning of October and polling is consistently showing Harris +4.5% or so. That's when it'll start getting hairy, but right now Trump is in a better position now than he was in 2016.

Great work but was your analyis on STATE POLLS or just the "national popular vote"

because Trump definitely overperformed by more than 3.5% in some of the states in 2020.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/national/
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LMCane
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In reply to nortex97 • 12:14p, 7/30/24
there are fewer Muslim voters than Jewish voters still in the USA
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Legal Custodian
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In reply to LMCane • 12:20p, 7/30/24
AG
The numbers I looked up were just general election numbers and not state specific.

I'll have to do a little more research on what the state-by-state numbers did for the battleground states comparatively between 2016 & 2020. Give me a few hours to break free so I can do that. I'll probably just look up Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and maybe even Minnesota.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 12:27p, 7/30/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
This poll is ranked horribly

But it is still a concern I guess, I hope we are acting like we are 10 down......

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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 12:40p, 7/30/24
AG
2023NCAggies said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
This poll is ranked horribly

But it is still a concern I guess, I hope we are acting like we are 10 down......

Yeah, I was digging into the cross tabs on it and it isn't adding up. Trump is getting close to 20% of the black vote but down 4? No way. I think their white vote is too credentialed/educated and too suburban. Trump is still struggling with suburban whites and an oversampling of them will throw off your white voter numbers.

This organization's PA polls have been way out of line this cycle with other PA polls - they had Biden up 7 in January. But, they were pretty accurate in 2020.
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nortex97
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In reply to LMCane • 12:41p, 7/30/24
AG
LMCane said:
there are fewer Muslim voters than Jewish voters still in the USA
This is not true in Michigan. I also don't think this is true in Wisconsin. Factoring irrelevant locations like NYC really isn't…relevant.
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Artorias
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In reply to nortex97 • 12:42p, 7/30/24
AG
nortex97 said:
LMCane said:
there are fewer Muslim voters than Jewish voters still in the USA
This is not true in Michigan. I also don't think this is true in Wisconsin. Factoring irrelevant locations like NYC really isn't…relevant.
Why did Muslims end up settling/concentrating in frigid northern Midwest states like WI, MI and MN? Seems random.
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agsalaska
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12:43p, 7/30/24
AG
I would like to see some polling of black men voting for Kamala Harris. I feel like that's going to be a tough one for Democrats
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Drahknor03
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12:52p, 7/30/24
AG
Interesting data point from AZ. Reps are up the early vote turnout in Maricopa:



AND they are crushing on Election Day turnout:



Maybe Republicans have finally learned to vote early.
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LMCane
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In reply to Artorias • 1:01p, 7/30/24
Artorias said:
nortex97 said:
LMCane said:
there are fewer Muslim voters than Jewish voters still in the USA
This is not true in Michigan. I also don't think this is true in Wisconsin. Factoring irrelevant locations like NYC really isn't…relevant.
Why did Muslims end up settling/concentrating in frigid northern Midwest states like WI, MI and MN? Seems random.

Well I am correct in what I typed. some other guy claiming there are more Muslims than Jews in the USA is just wrong.

According to the 2020 United States census, 4,453,908 people, or 1.34% of the population, are Muslim, making Islam the third-largest religion in the country. However, other sources estimate the number of Muslims in the U.S. to be between 3.45 million and 4 million people, which would account for 1.1% of the population.

The Muslim community in the U.S. is made up of many immigrants and their children from around the world, and on average, they are younger than the general U.S. population. Some states with higher Muslim populations include: Illinois (3.7%), New York (3.6%), New Jersey (3.5%), Maryland (3.1%), and Michigan (2.4%).

As of 2020, the American Jewish Population Project (AJPP) estimated that 7.6 million people in the United States are Jewish:
  • Jewish adults by religion: 4.9 million, or 64%
  • Jewish adults of no religion: 1.2 million, or 15%
  • Jewish children: 1.6 million, or 21%
  • The Pew Research Center also estimated the Jewish population in the United States at 7.5 million in 2020, including 5.8 million adults and 1.8 million children. The Pew survey defines Jewish identity in several ways, including religion, Jewish background, and Jewish affinity.



[url=https://policies.google.com/privacy?hl=en][/url]


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LMCane
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In reply to Artorias • 1:03p, 7/30/24
Artorias said:
nortex97 said:
LMCane said:
there are fewer Muslim voters than Jewish voters still in the USA
This is not true in Michigan. I also don't think this is true in Wisconsin. Factoring irrelevant locations like NYC really isn't…relevant.
Why did Muslims end up settling/concentrating in frigid northern Midwest states like WI, MI and MN? Seems random.

Ask Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.

you think it's just a coincidence that Muslims and illegal immigrants are sent to battleground states?
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Artorias • 1:04p, 7/30/24
Artorias said:
nortex97 said:
LMCane said:
there are fewer Muslim voters than Jewish voters still in the USA
This is not true in Michigan. I also don't think this is true in Wisconsin. Factoring irrelevant locations like NYC really isn't…relevant.
Why did Muslims end up settling/concentrating in frigid northern Midwest states like WI, MI and MN? Seems random.
There has been a Muslim population in Dearborn for a long time. IDK why

But Obama sent most of them to those other places and added more to Detroit/Dearborn

That guy is the worst thing to happen to this country in a long time and he is still pulling the strings for the Dems. But the Dems are about to be bitten in the ass because of Obama, just like in 2016. So they might want to think about slowing down the crazy and go back to a more moderate party but they do not seem to be able to kick Obama's grip, haha idiots
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Drahknor03 • 1:12p, 7/30/24
Drahknor03 said:
Interesting data point from AZ. Reps are up the early vote turnout in Maricopa:



AND they are crushing on Election Day turnout:



Maybe Republicans have finally learned to vote early.
Turning point is Trumps ground game out west I believe, they have been working hard in Arizona, hope they are working hard in Nevada

Looks like RFK is already pulling votes
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nortex97
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In reply to LMCane • 1:23p, 7/30/24
AG
Quote:
The Muslim community in the U.S. is made up of many immigrants and their children from around the world, and on average, they are younger than the general U.S. population. Some states with higher Muslim populations include: Illinois (3.7%), New York (3.6%), New Jersey (3.5%), Maryland (3.1%), and Michigan (2.4%).
Not sure what you are arguing about, at this point. Those are all Harris/communist states, but for…Michigan. Is the Michigan jewish population anywhere near 2.4% of the electorate? In order to win Michigan, Harris would need to pull in more muslim AND Jewish votes, as well as independents, but I think the muslim block is, net, the bigger problem for her, as I don't think being married to a Jewish guy she will pull it off. And I do think/agree as you supported my comment here that there are more registered muslim voters in Michigan than Jewish ones. But I guess again I don't know what you're railing about right now.

That's it, that's my assertion.
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will25u
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1:37p, 7/30/24
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FireAg
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In reply to will25u • 1:51p, 7/30/24
AG
will25u said:
So in the latest polling of any merit, that has come out in the last 24 hours, Trump's average has increased by 0.7...

That's what everyone should be paying attention to...
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LMCane
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2:19p, 7/30/24
[This is a thread on polls, not Electoral College projections simply based on your opinion. Stop trolling the board with them, or start a different thread for it -- Staff]
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Artorias
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2:30p, 7/30/24
AG
Beshear is an odd choice. Trump won KY by 26 points in 2020. Straight, white male. What are they hoping Beshear brings to their ticket? Is this an attempt at an anti-Vance pick?

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Captn_Ag05
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2:48p, 7/30/24
AG


The media is proud of their work.
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McInnis 03
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2:50p, 7/30/24
AG
This is a poll, right?

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will25u
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2:50p, 7/30/24
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Joes
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 2:52p, 7/30/24
Captn_Ag05 said:


The media is proud of their work.


It's ultimately on the people who are so stupid and apathetic to be controlled by the media. If people had any critical thinking skills the media would be helpless.
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