Oversampled polls tell you Kamala is leading

Betting markets tell you she is getting smoked...

which do you believe?

Talking with @realschopenhaur about Trump and Harris's favorabilities reminded me of something. There's an 800 lb gorilla sitting in the room with Democrats that their euphoria has made them woefully unaware of.

We have job approval data on Kamala, and it's current. In fact, I… pic.twitter.com/Z8ArtE06mM

— Quantus Polls and News (@QPollsandnews) July 24, 2024

Exactly.

These polls are over sampling Democrat voters to make it appear as if Kamala is competitive. pic.twitter.com/kAeX47qcJi

— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) July 24, 2024

Public polls this week are trying to build a narrative, not measure the race. See Fabrizio's memo up thread/yesterday. Some really absurd examples the past 48 hours.

pray these polls and metrics are correct- if so Kamala will not win

'She Is Way Down': CNN's Harry Enten Dumps Cold Water On Kamala Harris Winning Back Young Voters pic.twitter.com/AxiHwfOlss

— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) July 24, 2024

nortex97 said:

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Exactly.

These polls are over sampling Democrat voters to make it appear as if Kamala is competitive. pic.twitter.com/kAeX47qcJi

— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) July 24, 2024

Public polls this week are trying to build a narrative, not measure the race. See Fabrizio's memo up thread/yesterday. Some really absurd examples the past 48 hours.

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Say it with me. Likely voters. Likely voters. Likely voters. All other polls are propaganda.

2023NCAggies said:

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normalhorn said:

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Polls are fun.

Dems broadcasting that they're going to lean on any poll that highlights Harris leading Trump so they can slip their election cheating under the rug….not fun.

They're stealing the **** out of this election. 2020 was a prude Baptist girl compared to what's coming in November

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I do not see that in this election right now, it is too far of a gap to close and huge risk

2020 you had the cover of COVID, Twitter and Facebook. You have none of that this election, on top of that you have 3 DEM third parties taking votes. You also now have a pissed off Billionaire in Musk who is likely pouring in 50+ million a month for the Rs and he now controls Twitter.

Plus there are reports that a good portion of their mega donors are not contributing and are not happy about Harris at the top.

You have to have a lot of money to get a large cheat orchestrated, and at best they will be lucky to break even with the Rs on cash raised this election. Trump has probably raised over 200 million this month

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GREAT post. hopefully will come true

Elon Musk swore to Jordan Peterson his main goal is to wreak vengeance on the "woke mind virus" that killed his son off.

I can't imagine he wants to see San Francisco Kamala Harris and all her idiocy take over.

Musk is apparently backing off his $45 million/month commitment.

techno-ag said:

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nortex97 said:

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Exactly.

These polls are over sampling Democrat voters to make it appear as if Kamala is competitive. pic.twitter.com/kAeX47qcJi

— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) July 24, 2024

Public polls this week are trying to build a narrative, not measure the race. See Fabrizio's memo up thread/yesterday. Some really absurd examples the past 48 hours.

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Say it with me. Likely voters. Likely voters. Likely voters. All other polls are propaganda.

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usually GOP always does better with "likely voters"

but this is the problem with Trump which we have been saying all along.

you don't have to like Kamala- you just have to hate Trump to go out and vote

if this was a Nikki Haley nominee (who I did not support) she would be demolishing Kamala

Quote:

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if this was a Nikki Haley nominee (who I did not support) she would be demolishing Kamala

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That's almost certainly wrong. The 60% of Republican voters who are MAGA would sit on their hands rather than voting for Haley.

Jabin said:

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Musk is apparently backing off his $45 million/month commitment.

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He is not directly giving to Trump But he is giving to a super pac, and it is likely more than 45 million

LMCane said:

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pray these polls and metrics are correct- if so Kamala will not win

'She Is Way Down': CNN's Harry Enten Dumps Cold Water On Kamala Harris Winning Back Young Voters pic.twitter.com/AxiHwfOlss

— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) July 24, 2024

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We need the polls to say it's close through dnc convention. If these polls are correct she won't even be the nominee after the convention.

2023NCAggies said:

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Jabin said:

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Musk is apparently backing off his $45 million/month commitment.

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He is not directly giving to Trump But he is giving to a super pac, and it is likely more than 45 million

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He never could have given that amount to the Trump campaign directly given the election campaign contribution limits. Musk has announced that he's created his own SuperPac to donate his money to, but will not be giving 45mm to it.

Jabin said:

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Quote:

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if this was a Nikki Haley nominee (who I did not support) she would be demolishing Kamala

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That's almost certainly wrong. The 60% of Republican voters who are MAGA would sit on their hands rather than voting for Haley.

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that's a good point. which only goes to show party loyalty runs one way.

I can't believe CNN is letting Harry Enten post polls showing Harris doing WORSE than Biden with young people.

that's insane if true!

FTAG 2000 said:

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LMCane said:

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pray these polls and metrics are correct- if so Kamala will not win

'She Is Way Down': CNN's Harry Enten Dumps Cold Water On Kamala Harris Winning Back Young Voters pic.twitter.com/AxiHwfOlss

— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) July 24, 2024

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We need the polls to say it's close through dnc convention. If these polls are correct she won't even be the nominee after the convention.

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No way- they can't ditch her for logistical reasons

for monetary reasons of all the money that has been raised only she can access

and having a floor fight would be annihilating for the entire democrat party like 1968

THE NOMINEE IS KAMALA regardless of what happens between now and convention

we should be driving up her negatives as high as possible

The nominee nobody wanted. What a force to be reckoned with.

🇺🇲 2024 GE: YouGov/Economist

🟥 Trump: 44%
🟦 Harris: 41%
🟨 RFK Jr: 5%
🟪 Other: 4%
—
538: #4 | 1,435 RV | July 21-23https://t.co/GJe2jUEeh3 pic.twitter.com/XCvndddX12

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 24, 2024

The cross tabs on this actually look pretty good for Trump. Winning independents by 5, only losing Hispanics 44-38, black vote 63-14.

🇺🇲 NATIONAL POLL: CNN/SSRS

🟥 Donald Trump: 49% (+3)
🟦 Kamala Harris: 46%
——
Crosstabs
• Democrats: Harris 94-5%
• Republicans: Trump 91-6%
• Independents: Trump 46-43%
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• Men: Trump 53-42%
• Women: Harris 50-45%
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• White voters: Trump 57-39%
• Ppl. of Color:… pic.twitter.com/3YsBuM45WG

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 24, 2024

everyone thinks Trump was destroying Biden-

but the entire RCP average had him only up by around 3 or 4 points

if he can keep a three point lead on Kamala that would be amazing.

3-4 point in national average equates to an EC arse whipping.

Jabin said:

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2023NCAggies said:

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Jabin said:

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Musk is apparently backing off his $45 million/month commitment.

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He is not directly giving to Trump But he is giving to a super pac, and it is likely more than 45 million

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He never could have given that amount to the Trump campaign directly given the election campaign contribution limits. Musk has announced that he's created his own SuperPac to donate his money to, but will not be giving 45mm to it.

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Sure he wont be.....

The Trump campaign needs to spend big money the next 3.5 weeks leading up the DNC really driving up Kamala's negatives, tie her to the Biden admin failures, and show her extreme positions on energy, immigration, crime, and guns. Do not let her (and the media) redefine her.

The positive is that Republicans can really get two-fers in the battleground states since many of them have Senate races (PA, AZ, NV, MI, and WI) along with OH and MT (although that race is likely over).

CBS News Poll: Trump continues to poll at “Historic highs” among black voters.

pic.twitter.com/3uERxK242X

— The Post Millennial (@TPostMillennial) July 24, 2024

Kamala is basically Hillary Clinton but perhaps even more unlikeable.

At least with Hillary you had the last name that still held some cachet and she could point to her husband's two terms and the success the country had during that time.

Kamala was border czar and essentially did nothing for 4 years and has no track record to run on AT ALL. If she brings up her time as DA in California they can just run the Tulsi clip over and over again.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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The Trump campaign needs to spend big money the next 3.5 weeks leading up the DNC really driving up Kamala's negatives, tie her to the Biden admin failures, and show her extreme positions on energy, immigration, crime, and guns. Do not let her (and the media) redefine her.

The positive is that Republicans can really get two-fers in the battleground states since many of them have Senate races (PA, AZ, NV, MI, and WI) along with OH and MT (although that race is likely over).

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I would have to think that Biden dropping out hurts Tester in Montana

we have a youthful Navy SEAL going up against the guy who has to defend Kamala in deep red Montana

need to win that seat.

need Moreno to figure out how to become a great candidate and curbstomp Sherrod Brown

Prosperdick said:

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Kamala is basically Hillary Clinton but perhaps ever more unlikeable.

At least with Hillary you had the last name that still held some cachet and she could point to her husband's two terms and the success the country had during that time.

Kamala was border czar and essentially did nothing for 4 years and has no track record to run on AT ALL. If she brings up her time as DA in California they can just run the Tulsi clip over and over again.

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Hillary was also a former Secretary of State and a Senator from New York

and did not have as crazy positions on the border, on Hamas, on paying illegals health care etc etc.

Prosperdick said:

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Kamala is basically Hillary Clinton but perhaps ever more unlikeable.

At least with Hillary you had the last name that still held some cachet and she could point to her husband's two terms and the success the country had during that time.

Kamala was border czar and essentially did nothing for 4 years and has no track record to run on AT ALL. If she brings up her time as DA in California they can just run the Tulsi clip over and over again.

---

I struggle to think about which is more unlikeable.... it's HRC. She was a complete dumpster fire from that perspective (and every other perspective). So smug. So incredibly devoid of any empathy. You never saw her with her daughter or other family. Think about that.

Kamala is devoid of anything real. She's a cartoon character of something they want her to be. She has ZERO depth. She has ZERO real experience with anything of substance. Think about that. What has she led? What were the results of that? NOTHING. The Border?

GenericAggie said:

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Prosperdick said:

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Kamala is basically Hillary Clinton but perhaps ever more unlikeable.

At least with Hillary you had the last name that still held some cachet and she could point to her husband's two terms and the success the country had during that time.

Kamala was border czar and essentially did nothing for 4 years and has no track record to run on AT ALL. If she brings up her time as DA in California they can just run the Tulsi clip over and over again.

---

I struggle to think about which is more unlikeable.... it's HRC. She was a complete dumpster fire from that perspective (and every other perspective). So smug. So incredibly devoid of any empathy. You never saw her with her daughter or other family. Think about that.

Kamala is devoid of anything real. She's a cartoon character of something they want her to be. She has ZERO depth. She has ZERO real experience with anything of substance. Think about that. What has she led? What were the results of that? NOTHING. The Border?

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I think the reason Kamala is more unlikeable is her combination of condescending arrogance combined with jaw dropping stupidty and lack of awareness. Hillary at least is somewhat intelligent, especially compared to Heels Up.

Oh and that cackling laugh of her's.

I'm still in shock that the Dems are likely going with her as the nominee. I would not be surprised at all once they take a look at internal polling that they dump her before the convention.

And she's a raging progressive from wokeland

But yeah, that cackle. Yikes.

Prosperdick said:

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GenericAggie said:

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Prosperdick said:

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Kamala is basically Hillary Clinton but perhaps ever more unlikeable.

At least with Hillary you had the last name that still held some cachet and she could point to her husband's two terms and the success the country had during that time.

Kamala was border czar and essentially did nothing for 4 years and has no track record to run on AT ALL. If she brings up her time as DA in California they can just run the Tulsi clip over and over again.

---

I struggle to think about which is more unlikeable.... it's HRC. She was a complete dumpster fire from that perspective (and every other perspective). So smug. So incredibly devoid of any empathy. You never saw her with her daughter or other family. Think about that.

Kamala is devoid of anything real. She's a cartoon character of something they want her to be. She has ZERO depth. She has ZERO real experience with anything of substance. Think about that. What has she led? What were the results of that? NOTHING. The Border?

---

I think the reason Kamala is more unlikeable is her combination of condescending arrogance combined with jaw dropping stupidty and lack of awareness. Hillary at least is somewhat intelligent, especially compared to Heels Up.

Oh and that cackling laugh of her's.

I'm still in shock that the Dems are likely going with her as the nominee. I would not be surprised at all once they take a look at internal polling that they dump her before the convention.

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They won't dump her. They can't at this point. They would lose down ballot badly if they all of a sudden did that.

GenericAggie said:

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Prosperdick said:

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GenericAggie said:

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Prosperdick said:

---

Kamala is basically Hillary Clinton but perhaps ever more unlikeable.

At least with Hillary you had the last name that still held some cachet and she could point to her husband's two terms and the success the country had during that time.

Kamala was border czar and essentially did nothing for 4 years and has no track record to run on AT ALL. If she brings up her time as DA in California they can just run the Tulsi clip over and over again.

---

I struggle to think about which is more unlikeable.... it's HRC. She was a complete dumpster fire from that perspective (and every other perspective). So smug. So incredibly devoid of any empathy. You never saw her with her daughter or other family. Think about that.

Kamala is devoid of anything real. She's a cartoon character of something they want her to be. She has ZERO depth. She has ZERO real experience with anything of substance. Think about that. What has she led? What were the results of that? NOTHING. The Border?

---

I think the reason Kamala is more unlikeable is her combination of condescending arrogance combined with jaw dropping stupidty and lack of awareness. Hillary at least is somewhat intelligent, especially compared to Heels Up.

Oh and that cackling laugh of her's.

I'm still in shock that the Dems are likely going with her as the nominee. I would not be surprised at all once they take a look at internal polling that they dump her before the convention.

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They won't dump her. They can't at this point. They would lose down ballot badly if they all of a sudden did that.

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I hope you're right because as much as the legacy media will try I don't think they can polish this turd.

Prosperdick said:

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GenericAggie said:

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Prosperdick said:

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GenericAggie said:

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Prosperdick said:

---

Kamala is basically Hillary Clinton but perhaps ever more unlikeable.

At least with Hillary you had the last name that still held some cachet and she could point to her husband's two terms and the success the country had during that time.

Kamala was border czar and essentially did nothing for 4 years and has no track record to run on AT ALL. If she brings up her time as DA in California they can just run the Tulsi clip over and over again.

---

I struggle to think about which is more unlikeable.... it's HRC. She was a complete dumpster fire from that perspective (and every other perspective). So smug. So incredibly devoid of any empathy. You never saw her with her daughter or other family. Think about that.

Kamala is devoid of anything real. She's a cartoon character of something they want her to be. She has ZERO depth. She has ZERO real experience with anything of substance. Think about that. What has she led? What were the results of that? NOTHING. The Border?

---

I think the reason Kamala is more unlikeable is her combination of condescending arrogance combined with jaw dropping stupidty and lack of awareness. Hillary at least is somewhat intelligent, especially compared to Heels Up.

Oh and that cackling laugh of her's.

I'm still in shock that the Dems are likely going with her as the nominee. I would not be surprised at all once they take a look at internal polling that they dump her before the convention.

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They won't dump her. They can't at this point. They would lose down ballot badly if they all of a sudden did that.

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I hope you're right because as much as the legacy media will try I don't think they can polish this turd.

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The narrative has been written by the DNC. Have you seen all of the polish being put on that turd by the mainstream media? It's crazy how they're trying to create the spin.

https://www.breitbart.com/2024-election/2024/07/24/cnn-poll-73-of-democrats-want-someone-other-than-kamala-harris-as-nominee/

Jabin said:

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Musk is apparently backing off his $45 million/month commitment.

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He said just the other day his mission is to destroy the woke mind virus after what happened to his son. Allowing the Biden/Harris regime continuation would be going against that mission. He'll find a way to support the opposite ticket.

Prosperdick said:

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GenericAggie said:

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Prosperdick said:

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Kamala is basically Hillary Clinton but perhaps ever more unlikeable.

At least with Hillary you had the last name that still held some cachet and she could point to her husband's two terms and the success the country had during that time.

Kamala was border czar and essentially did nothing for 4 years and has no track record to run on AT ALL. If she brings up her time as DA in California they can just run the Tulsi clip over and over again.

---

I struggle to think about which is more unlikeable.... it's HRC. She was a complete dumpster fire from that perspective (and every other perspective). So smug. So incredibly devoid of any empathy. You never saw her with her daughter or other family. Think about that.

Kamala is devoid of anything real. She's a cartoon character of something they want her to be. She has ZERO depth. She has ZERO real experience with anything of substance. Think about that. What has she led? What were the results of that? NOTHING. The Border?

---

I think the reason Kamala is more unlikeable is her combination of condescending arrogance combined with jaw dropping stupidty and lack of awareness. Hillary at least is somewhat intelligent, especially compared to Heels Up.

Oh and that cackling laugh of her's.

I'm still in shock that the Dems are likely going with her as the nominee. I would not be surprised at all once they take a look at internal polling that they dump her before the convention.

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There are people saying that is why Obama has not fully endorsed her. Take her on a test ride and see how the polls take to the idea.

Like you, I will not be surprised if she is challenged and swapped out