🇺🇲 2024 GE: Forbes/@Harris_X_

🟥 Trump: 50%
🟦 Harris: 41%
⬜ Undecided: 9%
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With leans
🟥 Trump: 53%
🟦 Harris: 47%

Independents: Trump 56-44% (with leans)
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#161 (1.6/3.0) | July 19-21 | 2,753 RVhttps://t.co/Ahmz2TT2RA pic.twitter.com/ZAfp2T6v63

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 22, 2024

Polls with Trump breaking the 50% mark is pretty nuts after all this time. Numbers like that make sense in the 25 states he won in both 2016 and 2020, but to pull numbers in the 50-53 in battleground states or nationally means that either pollsters are wildly off in their modeling this cycle or Americans have really turned a corner in accepting him as viable option for President. The lawfare and Jan 6 fake insurrection is not selling in the American population. If it hasn't already I don't believe it ever will. Probably why you are even hearing democrats go that crazy on the Collins decision. The news cycle has really done favors for Trump and his demeanor and occupying the middle ground in politics seems to be paying off for him.


A lot can change as people process Kamala, but Trump has undoubtedly become more likable to the American public, I don't see Kamala having the ability to combat this in a meaningful enough way.

Are there any Trump/Harris/Kennedy polls?

SA68AG said:

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If this poll is accurate and other polls show similar results, there will be an open convention.

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here is another one just now

I certainly hope if you add in Jill Stein (leftist) and Robert Kennedy (democrat) that Harris will do even worse

🚨 New HarrisX/Forbes poll:

Trump 50%, Kamala 41%
(9% undecided)

Trump 53%, Harris 47%
(incl. undecided leaners) pic.twitter.com/uFanqS9Fyf

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) July 22, 2024

anyone disagree with this:

if Trump actually wins the POPULAR vote he will have a near landslide victory.

#New General Election Poll

🔴 Trump 54% (+8)
🔵 Harris 46%

HarrisX #C - 2169 LV - 7/21

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 22, 2024

Barnyard96 said:

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Are there any Trump/Harris/Kennedy polls?

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Have not yet but I will be really suprised if it is much different than Trump/Biden/Kennedy

There is no magic bullet for the Democrats

my thought is while the divide might be too great for them to steal the election, like last time...

my only consolation is that the Democrats are racist mfers and do not want to see a strong POC like Kamala assume the highest office in the land.

She is truly swimming upstream in this one, and only got 1% of her own party's vote in 2020.

How bad was Biden doing that they chose Harris? lol

Philip J Fry said:

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How bad was Biden doing that they chose Harris? lol

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Their internals had to be significantly worse…

Philip J Fry said:

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How bad was Biden doing that they chose Harris? lol

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the GOP should pass around to the entire country these polls showing Harris losing

just to demoralize the left and the media and stop her fundraising and put pressure on their convention

This is all really so unprecedented. I would give the polls a few weeks before taking them too seriously. There are a lot of people that will coalesce around her but also some that are going to be turned off once her record is under the microscope more. I think it is too early to tell how it will shake out.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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This is all really so unprecedented. I would give the polls a few weeks before taking them too seriously. There are a lot of people that will coalesce around her but also some that are going to be turned off once her record is under the microscope more. I think it is too early to tell how it will shake out.

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I agree in part. But it's important to keep in mind. The combination of Trump getting shot and Biden dropping out has essentially taken away the Dems entire lawfare strategy. There is really no room in the news cycle to penetrate the public consciousness and beat the drums on these cases they have created against him. The public was already showing they had no mood to entertain the Dems narratives around Jan 6 or any of the other cases.

Now they are faced with having to work overtime in completely relaunching Kamala Harris while trying hard to make sure the general public doesn't ask any questions about how long the administration knew about Joe Bidens mental decline. That doesn't go away at all. Biden is still President. The world is still a dangerous place and the U.S. still has enemies. They want to know that a President is able to make executive decisions.

As much as the corporate media is in the pocket of the Democrat party. There is only so much they can accomplish in the age of social media with Elon Musk at the helm of a major town square.

The media does not have as much control of shaping public opinion at the current moment. If these numbers are anywhere close to real, it's going to be a lot of work to get them going back in the other direction with all this other stuff going on. They are going to try to make Joe a hero and all that. But I'm not sure that even the Democrat voters in the mood right now.

policywonk98 said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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This is all really so unprecedented. I would give the polls a few weeks before taking them too seriously. There are a lot of people that will coalesce around her but also some that are going to be turned off once her record is under the microscope more. I think it is too early to tell how it will shake out.

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I agree in part. But it's important to keep in mind. The combination of Trump getting shot and Biden dropping out has essentially taken away the Dems entire lawfare strategy. There is really no room in the news cycle to penetrate the public consciousness and beat the drums on these cases they have created against him. The public was already showing they had no mood to entertain the Dems narratives around Jan 6 or any of the other cases.

Now they are faced with having to work overtime in completely relaunching Kamala Harris while trying hard to make sure the general public doesn't ask any questions about how long the administration knew about Joe Bidens mental decline. That doesn't go away at all. Biden is still President. The world is still a dangerous place and the U.S. still has enemies. They want to know that a President is able to make executive decisions.

As much as the corporate media is in the pocket of the Democrat party. There is only so much they can accomplish in the age of social media with Elon Musk at the helm of a major town square.

The media does not have as much control of shaping public opinion at the current moment. Of these numbers are anywhere close to real, it's going to be a lot of work to get them going back in the other direction with all this other stuff going on. They are going to try to make Joe a hero and all that. But I'm not sure that even the Democrat voters in the mood right now.

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Well said. Name checks out.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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This is all really so unprecedented. I would give the polls a few weeks before taking them too seriously. There are a lot of people that will coalesce around her but also some that are going to be turned off once her record is under the microscope more. I think it is too early to tell how it will shake out.

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I agree...we need a minimum of 7 days for Kamala to start getting baked into the polls...

Today is today, and tomorrow is also a today. what has been unburdened by what can be

FireAg said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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This is all really so unprecedented. I would give the polls a few weeks before taking them too seriously. There are a lot of people that will coalesce around her but also some that are going to be turned off once her record is under the microscope more. I think it is too early to tell how it will shake out.

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I agree...we need a minimum of 7 days for Kamala to start getting baked into the polls...

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Yep. It's different when she was a hypothetical, vs. now when she's it, with fanfare from the media and donations rolling in. I'd be shocked if it doesn't tighten considerably. The media "love" has got to be worth at least three points by itself. We'll see soon enough...

Barnyard96 said:

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Today is today, and tomorrow is also a today. what has been unburdened by what can be

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There is significance in the passage of time that will be significant as time passes.

MemphisAg1 said:

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FireAg said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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This is all really so unprecedented. I would give the polls a few weeks before taking them too seriously. There are a lot of people that will coalesce around her but also some that are going to be turned off once her record is under the microscope more. I think it is too early to tell how it will shake out.

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I agree...we need a minimum of 7 days for Kamala to start getting baked into the polls...

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Yep. It's different when she was a hypothetical, vs. now when she's it, with fanfare from the media and donations rolling in. I'd be shocked if it doesn't tighten considerably. The media "love" has got to be worth at least three points by itself. We'll see soon enough...

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The fanfare is hollow...my understanding is that everyone is quietly groaning behind closed doors...and I bet they use her PAC funding not so much for her, but to boost down ballot folks in congressional races...

Literally, one of the top issues in this election is "open border/immigration"...she is supposed to be the "border czar" and has literally done nothing... She has no legacy to run on with regard to the border...

FireAg said:

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MemphisAg1 said:

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FireAg said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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This is all really so unprecedented. I would give the polls a few weeks before taking them too seriously. There are a lot of people that will coalesce around her but also some that are going to be turned off once her record is under the microscope more. I think it is too early to tell how it will shake out.

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I agree...we need a minimum of 7 days for Kamala to start getting baked into the polls...

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Yep. It's different when she was a hypothetical, vs. now when she's it, with fanfare from the media and donations rolling in. I'd be shocked if it doesn't tighten considerably. The media "love" has got to be worth at least three points by itself. We'll see soon enough...

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The fanfare is hollow...my understanding is that everyone is quietly groaning behind closed doors...and I bet they use her PAC funding not so much for her, but to boost down ballot folks in congressional races...

Literally, one of the top issues in this election is "open border/immigration"...she is supposed to be the "border czar" and has literally done nothing... She has no legacy to run on with regard to the border...

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Hope you're right; I'd like to see a (R) sweep.

But I'd be shocked if it doesn't tighten considerably.

To your earlier point, we'll see more reliable polls in a week or so that fully bake in a Trump/Harris contest.

Quinnipiac: Trump has a lower net unfavorability than Harris.

Trump: -3 (46/49). This is the highest favorability rating for Trump since the Quinnipiac Poll first asked this question of regs voters in May 2015.

Harris: -14 (37/51). https://t.co/lv1Acx93eB

— Joel Weingart (@JoelWeingart_) July 22, 2024

New talking points "too close to call". Sorry, if Trump wins the popular vote, it's an electoral college landslide.

Philip J Fry said:

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New talking points "too close to call". Sorry, if Trump wins the popular vote, it's an electoral college landslide.

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Yea Nate Silver and the rest are going to blow that talking point up in the next couple of days.

🚨NEW POLL🚨

BREAKING: Another overnight poll, this time from Quinnipiac, shows Trump and Harris TIED among Hispanics at 39%.

Context: This would be the worst performance ever for Democrats with Hispanics, even lower than John Kerry's record low of 53% in 2004. https://t.co/zTxFDd0YHS pic.twitter.com/bK924K8OWf

— Giancarlo Sopo (@GiancarloSopo) July 22, 2024

Quote:

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New talking points "too close to call".

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"It's a statistical dead heat!"

RCP has flipped to tracking Trump-Harris overnight but most of these pre-date her selection by the Dem power brokers, and are just registered voter polls;



I think she's likely in reality down about 5 or 6 among likely voters in battleground states but again we won't see any meaningful polling until at least this weekend, imho. I think she's doing a little worse than Biden was but probably will eventually get a boost once the running mate, convention, and endless propaganda is churned out over the next month.

so are we going to keep posting polls here in the "Official" thread or move to the newly created Harris/Trump Polls thread?

also those are HEAD TO HEAD polls

but that's not reality where hopefully Kennedy continues to draw more dem voters than Trump voters. and Jill Stein gets 2% from the left as well.

LMCane said:

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so are we going to keep posting polls here in the "Official" thread or move to the newly created Harris/Trump Polls thread?

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I dunno. I don't really care, or know why the other poster started a fresh one. Whatever, it's an internet message board…

The RCP poll snippet I posted is confusing because it is labeled 'five way' but I don't think any of those polls yet really are, they probably just intend to add more as it comes in.

if this is accurate Trump is going to blow Harris out

#New General Election Poll - Age 18 - 34

🔴 Trump 58% (+19)
🔵 Harris 39%

Quinnipiac #B - 7/21

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 23, 2024

That will be a twist for her.

LMCane said:

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if this is accurate Trump is going to blow Harris out

#New General Election Poll - Age 18 - 34

🔴 Trump 58% (+19)
🔵 Harris 39%

Quinnipiac #B - 7/21

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 23, 2024

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If that stays, she will be out in a week and Michelle will be the next nominee. Rinse, repeat until they get it correct.

There are so many polls it's hard to tell what's what. I guess the polling companies make their money on volume.

harris is already the "presumptive nominee" after so many delegates "bent the knee"

so without winning a single primary vote in two Presidential campaigns, she could be the President.

this is literally more like what happened in Weimar Germany and the Soviet Union in 1983 than the United States.

but democracy!

They would bring back a widowed "Dr. Jill" before they let an election be run with those numbers.

nortex97 said:

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They would bring back a widowed "Dr. Jill" before they let an election be run with those numbers.

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I mean in reality they can't dump Kamala now with 3 weeks to the convention and her already getting enough pledged delegates.

if we had a free press rather than Pravda- someone would ask her how it's a "democracy" when she becomes the party nominee without winning a single primary vote.

NOT ONE VOTER has ever chosen Kamala Harris.