Muh Polls

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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 4:00p, 7/18/24
AG
2023NCAggies said:

.

Also consider Trump out performs polls every time. So this is a landslide. Pennsylvania +3 Trump is really +7. There's proof
In your opinion, is this still a remnant of not wanting to tip their hand, a product of polling, something else, or a combination of several things?

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agsalaska
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In reply to GenericAggie • 4:01p, 7/18/24
AG
GenericAggie said:
FireAg said:
What evidence do you have that "polls are never right"?


2016 presidential election. Youre kidding right?
The polls were very close in 2016. The final numbers were within the margin of error in most States. They slightly undercounted Trump support and missed outside of the margin in Michigan and Pennsylvania, but barely.

Most pollsters understood the race was close calling it a 70/30 race depending on where the final votes fell within the margins. It was the mainstream media feeding you doom and gloom for team red.

Saying polls are never right is just saying that you either don't understand polling or just listen to what the mainstream media feeds you.

We all knew 2016 was close and we all knew 2020 was almost certainly falling for Biden and we new this from polling.
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FireAg
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In reply to GenericAggie • 4:06p, 7/18/24
AG
GenericAggie said:
FireAg said:
What evidence do you have that "polls are never right"?


2016 presidential election. Youre kidding right?

You said "never"…never is a really big word…

Other than 2016, polling averages have been pretty good at telling the tale…

They aren't infallible, but they are nowhere close to "never right"…
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MemphisAg1
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In reply to FireAg • 4:28p, 7/18/24
AG
FireAg said:
GenericAggie said:
FireAg said:
What evidence do you have that "polls are never right"?


2016 presidential election. Youre kidding right?

You said "never"…never is a really big word…

Other than 2016, polling averages have been pretty good at telling the tale…

They aren't infallible, but they are nowhere close to "never right"…
Yeah, I might says "polls aren't always right"... but I wouldn't say that "polls are never right."

I'd boil it down to "polls are usually right"...
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sanangelo
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6:10p, 7/18/24
AG
As of July 18, 2024.... RCP latest polls. Yeehaa!! https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls/election
San Angelo LIVE!
https://sanangelolive.com/
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techno-ag
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In reply to MemphisAg1 • 6:26p, 7/18/24
AG
MemphisAg1 said:
FireAg said:
GenericAggie said:
FireAg said:
What evidence do you have that "polls are never right"?


2016 presidential election. Youre kidding right?

You said "never"…never is a really big word…

Other than 2016, polling averages have been pretty good at telling the tale…

They aren't infallible, but they are nowhere close to "never right"…
Yeah, I might says "polls aren't always right"... but I wouldn't say that "polls are never right."

I'd boil it down to "polls are usually right"...

Trump will fix it.
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MemphisAg1
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In reply to techno-ag • 8:01p, 7/18/24
AG
Key word: "usually"
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techno-ag
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In reply to MemphisAg1 • 8:16p, 7/18/24
will25u
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10:25p, 7/19/24
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will25u
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10:28p, 7/19/24
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to will25u • 2:42a, 7/20/24
will25u said:


Why not Maine, very good shot at 3-1 Trump. Better shot there than New Jersey

New Mexico is good move. Help out the senate candidate with more cash, ground game and maybe a couple Trump rallies. She's very close and has good chance to win. Her name is well known and runs deep

Still not sold on Virginia. Cannot believe Cao isn't doing better, he's a stud politician. But none of the other Republican senate candidates are doing good.

Minnesota is a good move "I think". Minnesota should be very winnable. If most of the rural counties were darker red, and if Trump does well enough in the Minneapolis suburbs, he'll win. Minnesota has the rural population to over take Minneapolis but for whatever reason Rs cannot recruit new voters and sell

New Jersey is not in play and they're just taunting here
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nortex97
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 3:56a, 7/20/24
AG
New Jersey media market also means/hits Philadelphia/Eastern Pa so it's basically a 2-for.
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policywonk98
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9:08a, 7/20/24
AG
They have the cash and enough polling movement that they are going to force the Dems to spend more money where they don't usually have to spend as much. It's a good strategy to help spread the Dems thin in the only states Trump needs. With Nevada, and what I've been saying for months, potentially New Mexico in play, it changes the EC game a lot as long as AZ and GA are solidly back to Trump. If he can pull off NM I think the GOP also picks up the Senate seat and Trump won't even need the rust belt, but it doesn't mean he won't have a real shot at some of it.

Obviously this can all change depending upon how independents receive whatever the Dems serve up with Biden/NoBiden. I think to truly change the calculus's it's going to have to be an alternative that is already well liked by working Latinos and blue collars in the rust belt or a ticket that really supercharges the Black vote to the level Obama did.
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GenericAggie
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In reply to policywonk98 • 4:34p, 7/20/24
AG
policywonk98 said:
They have the cash and enough polling movement that they are going to force the Dems to spend more money where they don't usually have to spend as much. It's a good strategy to help spread the Dems thin in the only states Trump needs. With Nevada, and what I've been saying for months, potentially New Mexico in play, it changes the EC game a lot as long as AZ and GA are solidly back to Trump. If he can pull off NM I think the GOP also picks up the Senate seat and Trump won't even need the rust belt, but it doesn't mean he won't have a real shot at some of it.

Obviously this can all change depending upon how independents receive whatever the Dems serve up with Biden/NoBiden. I think to truly change the calculus's it's going to have to be an alternative that is already well liked by working Latinos and blue collars in the rust belt or a ticket that really supercharges the Black vote to the level Obama did.


PA or MI governor?
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2023NCAggies
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7:06p, 7/20/24
How much y'all betting Trump took in for July from small donors? Betting over 100 million from smalls

That every month would be huge.

I know one thing they're now spreading it around bigly for down ballots. So Trump and RNC must have a crap load

With big donors I bet they bring in over 250 a month

And that's not including super pacs like the one Elon is donating too. All the pacs are flush too

Amazing and about time we have unity and huge outreach
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to nortex97 • 8:01p, 7/20/24
nortex97 said:
New Jersey media market also means/hits Philadelphia/Eastern Pa so it's basically a 2-for.


Forgot about that
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will25u
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9:02p, 7/20/24
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MarkTwain
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9:12p, 7/20/24
Here is a non scientific set of polls posted by one of the twin brothers who own two of the largest bot farms that the left use for their rapid response teams. These two idiots have over a million personal followers and it's estimated their bot farms reach upwards of 40 million people.

They posted two polls a couple of hours ago to gauge data and the results are not what they expected

This is interesting




“Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience" - Mark Twain
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will25u
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9:57p, 7/20/24
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Drahknor03
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8:34a, 7/21/24
AG


If the bottom truly falls out, we're not going to be talking about President Trump, we're going to be talking about Trump's 55+ seat Senate and 260 seat House.
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oh no
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In reply to Drahknor03 • 9:03a, 7/21/24
AG
But still, Trump allegedly leads all these polls in all these states, yet all those Republican senate candidates trail in their polls. R's should narrowly take the senate by winning Manchin's vacated WV spot and there's still a "toss up" for Tester's MT spot, and that's it (if you believe the polls are accurate and elections are fair). Further, the Marxist regime has started their anti-democratic "operation candidate swap", which is going to throw all these polls out the window anyway.
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Drahknor03
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In reply to oh no • 9:14a, 7/21/24
AG
In nearly every case the Dems are not so much running ahead of Biden, but the Rs are running behind Trump. As we move into the fall, those candidates are going to start appearing with Trump at rallies, and those numbers will rise. Some of them haven't even won their Primaries yet.
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5:50p, 7/21/24
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TX04Aggie
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5:53p, 7/21/24
AG
The "rally around Kamala" is interesting, these people cant seriously believe what they are saying.. it will be even more interesting if the DNC ends up not selecting her in the end.
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will25u
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5:58p, 7/21/24
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10:44a, 7/22/24
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techno-ag
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In reply to will25u • 10:46a, 7/22/24
AG
will25u said:

With polls like that, they'll change candidates again during the convention.
Trump will fix it.
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SA68AG
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10:52a, 7/22/24
AG
If this poll is accurate and other polls show similar results, there will be an open convention.
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nortex97
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1:08p, 7/22/24
AG
I don't think we will have a lot of great polling data until at least a week after Veepthroat announces her VP selection but fwiw;



Wildcard might be if Biden is in fact no longer POTUS/dies etc, as seems to be increasingly plausible. Basically, total chaos for the next month or so…
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agsalaska
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In reply to nortex97 • 1:12p, 7/22/24
AG
nortex97 said:
I don't think we will have a lot of great polling data until at least a week after Veepthroat announces her VP selection but fwiw;



Wildcard might be if Biden is in fact no longer POTUS/dies etc, as seems to be increasingly plausible. Basically, total chaos for the next month or so…
That's all basically the same and that really doesn't surprise me. I don't think there is anyone that the Dems can run that will completely close the gap. Maybe a few can cut a point or two off, but not enough to mak a difference.
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Irish 2.0
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In reply to agsalaska • 1:15p, 7/22/24
Shapiro is the best bet, but I don't think he wants to stick his neck out there yet. Which is interesting considering the party is trying to tap him as Harris' VP. I think he would be wise to decline the VP offer and run in 2028. He will be a difficult opponent for the GOP if he runs in 28.
Of course it was for that. In what universe did you think it was okay to post a naked man spreading open his butt cheeks on our platform?
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agsalaska
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In reply to Irish 2.0 • 1:28p, 7/22/24
AG
That's probably right, except I don't know if the terrorist wing of the Democratic Party would vote for a Jew.


To your greater point I think any of them with greater aspirations would be better off waiting until 2028.
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