Muh Polls

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2023NCAggies
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10:50a, 7/10/24
Democrat Senate candidates have had a advantage in money and ground game. RNC is just now catching up and are starting to make some headway.

You will not see as much disparity between Trump and R candidates as you see now, when getting closer to the election.

Also take in to account that these polls for senate candidates will be hard to gauge with what the Dems are doing and with 3rd parties thrown in. The Dems are in shambles and a lot of their supporters may stay home or vote 3rd party and leave, polls cannot account for that.

At worst Rs are looking at a 51-49 majority. By the time counting is over, I will say it is going to be 54-46 Rs

WV, Montana safe. I think they pick up one of the desert states and one of the rust belt states, and then a surprise 5th win.

There is just too much going on to get a good read on things. But too much against Dems to be confident in any of their candidates. What will happen to the D war chest? Biden in control of that? Where will the money be spent? Who will be at the top?

54-46 my prediction. I will go WV, Montana, Nevada, Wisconsin, Ohio. But man Ohio is not polling well as the others... Surprising
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2023NCAggies
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11:00a, 7/10/24
Also Trump will have a R controlled senate for 4 years. 2026 there are only Dems defending their seats with Georgia on the the table
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agsalaska
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 11:03a, 7/10/24
AG
2023NCAggies said:
Also Trump will have a R controlled senate for 4 years. 2026 there are only Dems defending their seats with Georgia on the the table
That would be glorious
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Irish 2.0
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 11:16a, 7/10/24
I think Hogan has a better chance in Maryland currently than Moreno has in Ohio.
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LMCane
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 12:22p, 7/10/24
welcome back 2023!

I think that is too optimistic

I will take WV/Montana/one other amongst Ohio or Maryland or Nevada

52/48 good guys
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LMCane
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In reply to Irish 2.0 • 12:23p, 7/10/24
Irish 2.0 said:
I think Hogan has a better chance in Maryland currently than Moreno has in Ohio.
that in itself is insane how bad the candidate is in Ohio!

Ohio is literally +9 or +10 points more Republican than Maryland!
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nortex97
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In reply to LMCane • 12:33p, 7/10/24
AG
LMCane said:
Irish 2.0 said:
I think Hogan has a better chance in Maryland currently than Moreno has in Ohio.
that in itself is insane how bad the candidate is in Ohio!

Ohio is literally +9 or +10 points more Republican than Maryland!
Sherrod Brown is a very formidable candidate, to be frank. Long time incumbent, comes across as a 'believable' moderate on most issues, entrenched with major interests in Ohio from labor, education, to corn, and an enormous war chest. Both races are going to be nail biters, hopefully.

As much as we lament having 'poor candidates' sometimes on the GOP side, we should also respect when the left has very good ones on their side. That said, Brown's polling lead has generally been halved to around 3-5 over the past couple months. This is one the Democrats will throw absolutely everything they have at saving.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to LMCane • 12:45p, 7/10/24
LMCane said:
welcome back 2023!

I think that is too optimistic

I will take WV/Montana/one other amongst Ohio or Maryland or Nevada

52/48 good guys
Lol. I as well feel I am being too confidant, I am leaning more 53-47.

But man this thing is swinging each day, and more in favor of the Rs than Ds. Polls were all over the place, some close, some blow outs, now there has been two polling firms come out with recent polling showing all the races tight.

If you throw in New Mexico, Maryland and New Jersey. Added to Arizona, Nevada, Montana, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. That is TEN 10 states the Dems are having to throw money in to.

I hope the Virginia Senate candidate can pick up steam as well.

Need to get Sununu to run in New Hampshire in 2026, pick up Georgia and New Hampshire.
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FireAg
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In reply to LMCane • 5:49a, 7/11/24
AG
Honest question…for over a year you've been lamenting how the polls are awful, can't be trusted, and there was no way Trump could win…

What's changed for you? All of a sudden, you're glowing with optimism?
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Irish 2.0
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In reply to FireAg • 6:06a, 7/11/24
FireAg said:
Honest question…for over a year you've been lamenting how the polls are awful, can't be trusted, and there was no way Trump could win…

What's changed for you? All of a sudden, you're glowing with optimism?


Probably because the DNC put a potato on the stage for the debate.
Of course it was for that. In what universe did you think it was okay to post a naked man spreading open his butt cheeks on our platform?
-Moderator
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Drahknor03
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In reply to FireAg • 6:14a, 7/11/24
AG
I think it's fair to say that a lot of conservatives thought the polls were fake and would move in Biden's favor after Trump secured the nomination.

Turns out, the polls are real. You can tell the difference between real and fake polls by how the parties act.

Polls show Republicans winning but the Dems are super confident? Polls are fake.

Polls show Republicans winning and the Dems are absolutely panicking? Those are the real ones.

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ttu_85
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In reply to FireAg • 6:29a, 7/11/24
FireAg said:
Honest question…for over a year you've been lamenting how the polls are awful, can't be trusted, and there was no way Trump could win…

What's changed for you? All of a sudden, you're glowing with optimism?
Answers:

1. You were obnoxious in your worship of polls, polls, and more polls like nothing else mattered.

2. Glowing with optimism- damn right. Seeing Biden in flames is glorious. Even state media has turned on this POS. My whole problem with Trump last year was whether he'd have the time or health to both campaign and deal with all the lawfare. fact is I'm still worried about it. Where has he been in the last 10 days? Biden, that lying, plagiarizing, POS is on the mat. Trump needs to hammer him relentlessly, now !!!.
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LMCane
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:30a, 7/11/24
Okay but the point is that Ohio is a Republican state and has been for years now. if we had a good candidate it would not matter that Sherrod Brown runs good campaigns

he still votes with Biden and the left the majority of the time and his first vote is for Chuck Schumer

a good GOP candidate would win on that issue alone.
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nortex97
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In reply to Drahknor03 • 7:32a, 7/11/24
AG
I suspect we have something like a dozen actual conservative/active posters who (reasonably) thought DJT would crater after getting the nomination again, and/or just wanted the GOP to go another/younger route etc.

But as with basically 60 percent of the country, we have to come together now and the data is pretty darn good at a macro level that Trump is pulling in great support from a broad swath of the electorate.
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Science Denier
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In reply to Drahknor03 • 8:10a, 7/11/24
AG
Drahknor03 said:
I think it's fair to say that a lot of conservatives thought the polls were fake and would move in Biden's favor after Trump secured the nomination.

Turns out, the polls are real. You can tell the difference between real and fake polls by how the parties act.

Polls show Republicans winning but the Dems are super confident? Polls are fake.

Polls show Republicans winning and the Dems are absolutely panicking? Those are the real ones.

Polls are still fake. My guess:
1. Trump probably actually leads by +15.
2, Trump leads, and the insiders want Biden out, so they are using the polls as a hammer to Biden

In the end, I think they just go with Biden and up their cheating game.
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Rapier108
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8:16a, 7/11/24
Quote:
Two-thirds of Americans in a new ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll including a majority of Joe Biden's own supporters say he should step aside as his party's presumptive nominee for president given his debate performance two weeks ago. That's even as Biden continues to run evenly with Donald Trump, with no meaningful post-debate change in vote preferences.

Americans divide 46-47% between Biden and Trump if the election were today, almost identical to a 44-46% ABC/Ipsos poll result in April. Among registered voters (though there's plenty of time to register) it's an absolute tie, 46-46%.

Were Vice President Kamala Harris to replace Biden as the Democratic nominee, vote choices are 49-46%, Harris-Trump, among all adults (and 49-47% among registered voters). Harris' 49% is slightly better than Biden's 46%, although she doesn't have a statistically significant lead over Trump.


Biden and Trump tied despite debate, as 67% call for president to drop out: POLL - ABC News (go.com)

Fox News this morning is breathlessly hyping this poll.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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Rockdoc
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8:22a, 7/11/24
AG
Fox ownership has TDS
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MemphisAg1
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In reply to nortex97 • 8:22a, 7/11/24
AG
nortex97 said:
I suspect we have something like a dozen actual conservative/active posters who (reasonably) thought DJT would crater after getting the nomination again, and/or just wanted the GOP to go another/younger route etc.

But as with basically 60 percent of the country, we have to come together now and the data is pretty darn good at a macro level that Trump is pulling in great support from a broad swath of the electorate.
Except for Trump's base (about 30% of the electorate), I don't think his polling lead is a sudden rush of love for Trump from other R's and independents, but instead a shocking realization of just how incompetent Biden is with his diminished abilities.

Trump is still an awful candidate with a lot of baggage -- and he could still lose this race -- but the majority of people now realize what many of us knew about Biden... he's a disaster and the worst possible choice for president.

Even though I've fallen off the Trump wagon, I still want him to win. He won the nomination and is the R candidate, so he'll have my vote. My world will be better with a R president and much better if he can combine it with a R Congress.
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LMCane
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In reply to MemphisAg1 • 9:23a, 7/11/24
I can't understand how Kamala would NOT do better than Biden

it just seems using basic logic she would be a stronger candidate

are there really people in the Midwest who are thinking

"I love this potato Biden, but won't vote for the first female black woman"?
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Science Denier
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In reply to LMCane • 9:29a, 7/11/24
AG
LMCane said:
I can't understand how Kamala would NOT do better than Biden

it just seems using basic logic she would be a stronger candidate

are there really people in the Midwest who are thinking

"I love this potato Biden, but won't vote for the first female black woman"?
It's more like:

Well, I know Biden is a total vegetable and is not in charge of anything and I like what his puppets are implementing. Who knows what that dingbat Kamala would do. I'll just stick with those pulling Biden's strings.
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nortex97
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In reply to LMCane • 9:31a, 7/11/24
AG
Keep in mind basically half the country manages to disapprove of her job performance and she…really doesn't have a job to do.
Quote:
Harris' relatively low approval rating (37%, according to Five Thirty Eight's latest polling average) is a concern for Democrats if she were to replace Biden, though the numbers are partly a reflection of the president, whose approval rating is roughly similar.

Throughout her tenure, Harris has been accused of being absent from the public stage and she's been hit with critical reviews of her job performance, including a cutting October New York Times profile that declared "the vice president is still struggling to make the case for herself" and a 2021 CNN story that revealed tension between the White House and Harris' office.
If she's down 2 nationally before the national hits against her start rolling in (and inevitably more on-camera gaffes, because she really is a moron), it's tough to see how she suddenly becomes a popular option. Plus, she will be quizzed a lot about why she didn't speak out about Biden's obvious decline before the debate debacle. Some on the left/confused middle will…hold her responsible for that.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to LMCane • 9:57a, 7/11/24
LMCane said:
Okay but the point is that Ohio is a Republican state and has been for years now. if we had a good candidate it would not matter that Sherrod Brown runs good campaigns

he still votes with Biden and the left the majority of the time and his first vote is for Chuck Schumer

a good GOP candidate would win on that issue alone.
Need to recruit better. Ohio is a Red state but it is a very soft red state, a Republican can easily lose in the state. It is ran similar to how Florida was ran and Texas is ran. With a bunch of Moderate Republicans that do not fight for hard conservative values once in office and people seem to be fine with it, so in turn, you have a bunch of soft moderates running the RNC for that state. Vance barely won and he is a good candidate.

I really think we lost an easy opportunity in Michigan, John James should have ran this time, he would have won easily Vs that fat white liberal lady. Instead we have an old fat white guy.

Ron DeSantis can do something while waiting for his turn. Send teams to these soft red states, and help them turn solid red. Texas is starting to finally push this way. Bunch of strong groups pushing real conservatives to pass school choice. We need to keep it up and elect Patrick as next G.

So many states could be lean R or solid R but we have idiot moderates running the show.

Rs really really need two of the rust belt states to flip R. Then flip Arizona and Nevada. Montana and WV are basically safe now
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DonHenley
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10:02a, 7/11/24
AG
Dan Patrick is older than Abbott, I'd rather just have Abbott for a 4th term. He's really impressed in the last term. 2nd best Gov in the country behind Desantis Imo
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to DonHenley • 10:17a, 7/11/24
DonHenley said:
Dan Patrick is older than Abbott, I'd rather just have Abbott for a 4th term. He's really impressed in the last term. 2nd best Gov in the country behind Desantis Imo
We need a hardcore DeSantis conservative to expand and recruit new voters in the state and keep it red and make it redder.

Iowa is another example of a good gov. changing a state for the long term.

Abbott is okay but we can do better, he can always go back to his old ways of being a moderate.
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2023NCAggies
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10:23a, 7/11/24
Tester and Kaine staying away

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/battleground-dems-tester-kaine-skip-biden-campaign-meeting-2024-fears-grow

Knew it, down ballot Dems are starting to abandon ship. I fully expect others to do the same, keep their distance until something is figured out at the top.

Tester is understandable, Tim Kaine on the other hand is a very bad sign for all Dems down ballot.

That must mean internal polling in Virginia is a lot closer and indicating bad signs. I think GOP has a good chance to get two of Nevada, New Mexico or Arizona. And now have a good chance to pull in two more from the northern states.

Which gives credit to the new senate polls being tighter now. Really hope GOP gives them hell through this turmoil, challenge anything they do, anyway possible.

RNC needs to be raising money like hell. Donate. If we can get just 2 million people to give 50 a month, that is 100 million a month they can spend with small money donations

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agsalaska
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 10:23a, 7/11/24
AG
Quote:
We need a hardcore DeSantis conservative to expand and recruit new voters in the state and keep it red and make it redder.
Not sure hardcore conservative expands and makes Texas redder. Would need to see some polling in that.

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Captn_Ag05
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11:56a, 7/11/24
AG
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/11/us/politics/biden-kamala-harris-poll-trump.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20240711&instance_id=128497&nl=from-the-times®i_id=113685347&segment_id=171882&te=1&user_id=e251a13c444d6a6218a8e80ac51429f4

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will25u
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In reply to MemphisAg1 • 12:17p, 7/11/24
MemphisAg1 said:
nortex97 said:
I suspect we have something like a dozen actual conservative/active posters who (reasonably) thought DJT would crater after getting the nomination again, and/or just wanted the GOP to go another/younger route etc.

But as with basically 60 percent of the country, we have to come together now and the data is pretty darn good at a macro level that Trump is pulling in great support from a broad swath of the electorate.
Except for Trump's base (about 30% of the electorate), I don't think his polling lead is a sudden rush of love for Trump from other R's and independents, but instead a shocking realization of just how incompetent Biden is with his diminished abilities.

Trump is still an awful candidate with a lot of baggage -- and he could still lose this race -- but the majority of people now realize what many of us knew about Biden... he's a disaster and the worst possible choice for president.

Even though I've fallen off the Trump wagon, I still want him to win. He won the nomination and is the R candidate, so he'll have my vote. My world will be better with a R president and much better if he can combine it with a R Congress.
Or it could be rational people(moderates) who aren't afflicted by TDS actually have the ability to look at the two presidencies and see that we were in a much better place under Trump than Biden.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 12:21p, 7/11/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/11/us/politics/biden-kamala-harris-poll-trump.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20240711&instance_id=128497&nl=from-the-times®i_id=113685347&segment_id=171882&te=1&user_id=e251a13c444d6a6218a8e80ac51429f4

About the same. No one likes her and she is the only other candidate to choose from

If Biden unleashes the money and they can quickly reassemble, it might help a lot down ballot but they will still lose a lot.

They are screwed no matter what at this point barring some huge event that would hurt Trump and Rs, which I do not see
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LMCane
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 12:22p, 7/11/24
2023NCAggies said:
Tester and Kaine staying away

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/battleground-dems-tester-kaine-skip-biden-campaign-meeting-2024-fears-grow

Knew it, down ballot Dems are starting to abandon ship. I fully expect others to do the same, keep their distance until something is figured out at the top.

Tester is understandable, Tim Kaine on the other hand is a very bad sign for all Dems down ballot.

That must mean internal polling in Virginia is a lot closer and indicating bad signs. I think GOP has a good chance to get two of Nevada, New Mexico or Arizona. And now have a good chance to pull in two more from the northern states.

Which gives credit to the new senate polls being tighter now. Really hope GOP gives them hell through this turmoil, challenge anything they do, anyway possible.

RNC needs to be raising money like hell. Donate. If we can get just 2 million people to give 50 a month, that is 100 million a month they can spend with small money donations


that's funny because the way I looked at is that it is a positive that Tester and Kaine won't be there.

a positive for Biden- because that is two guys who want to dump him who won't be in a large meeting. meaning Biden gets his people to do all the talking.

better to have your enemies outside of the tent
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BadMoonRisin
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12:24p, 7/11/24
AG
the fact that an elderly dementia patient has 45+% of the vote is extremely concerning.

i would advocate for an iq test before voting, but that would be "racist". I would settle for voter ID in a heartbeat.

The democrat policies are NOT popular.
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Tony Franklins Other Shoe
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12:30p, 7/11/24
AG
That's what still gives me pause in all the polls. There is absolutely no doubt the border is completely screwed and one person was named the border czar. Three years of "work" and she's been in the area once (?) and to the ****hole countries to our south maybe 2-3 times? Just obscene she would even be in the conversation as a presidential candidate. We could do better holding a lottery in a podunk Walmart and electing that mouth breather.

Person Not Capable of Pregnancy
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Rapier108
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8:38a, 7/12/24
Quote:
The race for the presidency remains statistically tied despite President Biden's dismal debate performance two weeks ago, a new national NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds.

Biden actually gained a point since last month's survey, which was taken before the debate. In this poll, he leads Trump 50% to 48% in a head-to-head matchup. But Biden slips when third-party options are introduced, with Trump holding the slightest advantage with 43% to 42%.

Those numbers, though, do not represent statistically significant differences, as the margin of error in the survey is +/- 3.1 percentage points, meaning results could be 3 points higher or lower.

The poll also found that, at this point, no other mainstream Democrat who has been mentioned as a replacement for the president on the ticket does better than Biden.

The results reflect the hyperpolarized political environment in the country and the reality that both of the major parties' presumptive nominees bring with them significant disadvantages. Majorities of those surveyed continue to say they have a negative opinion of both men, and neither, they say, should be on the ballot at all.

"This is an unpleasant rematch with two unpopular people," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, "but Biden gets points for honesty and character. As a result, there's a lot of canceling out."

Nearly two-thirds of the more than 1,300 respondents said they believe Biden lacks the mental fitness to be president. That includes almost 4 in 10 Democrats.
https://www.npr.org/2024/07/12/nx-s1-5036518/biden-trump-poll

Now this is a poll of "adults" which traditionally favor Democrats. Feel free to dissect it.

And yes, it is a NPR poll, but Fox News is hyping it up this morning.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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Barnyard96
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In reply to Rapier108 • 8:44a, 7/12/24
AG
From that article.


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TyHolden
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8:51a, 7/12/24
AG
NPR is owned by the gubermint....
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