nortex97 said:

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5-Way Numbers:

Arizona: Trump +9
Georgia: Trump +8
Michigan: Trump +2

— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) May 13, 2024

More good to great numbers. Sorry doom and gloomers.

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That's great, I hope it holds, but I went back to the RCP graphs from 2020 for comparison and from the end of May to the election that year Biden consistently clearly lead in the polls, peaking with just over a 10-point lead in late July. On one hand maybe that means that these current numbers are reliable, which is great, but on the other hand looking at the 2020 polls now it makes me wonder why anyone here was surprised by the election results.

The surprise at 2020's 'results' with 81 million 'votes' for China Joe was that he swept the key battleground states, including Georgia, despite the actual vote totals on Election Day not indicating that would happen, thanks to various plantation vote locales like Fulton County/Maricopa County/Wayne County, while losing basically all the 'bellweather' counties winning candidates had to do well in over the past 50 years.

That he is polling so very much worse than the Dem candidate in 2020, 2016, or 2012 in those same states today though (particularly with RFK Jr included) imputes a great deal of optimism that the Democrats' dementia candidate can and will be defeated, imho.

I wasn't particularly surprised. I thought Biden was going to win.

nortex97 said:

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the Democrats' dementia candidate can and will be defeated, imho.

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the divisive, racist, corrupt, senile pedo geriatric candidate could possibly be defeated beyond MOE even with all the rigged ...er "fortified" mass-mailed ballot harvesting operations. He's been that terrible. The worst president in our nation's history ...but what happens when they swap in Gavin, Big Mike, or someone like Dwayne The Rock Johnson at their convention in August? Polls and their MOEs get tighter and predetermined outcome election "fortifying" is in play until all the illegals they imported are allowed to vote next time.

nortex97 said:

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5-Way Numbers:

Arizona: Trump +9
Georgia: Trump +8
Michigan: Trump +2

— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) May 13, 2024

More good to great numbers. Sorry doom and gloomers.

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The interesting dynamic is the likely voter vs registered voter difference. Can Trump get out the low propensity vote?

Quote:

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The interesting dynamic is the likely voter vs registered voter difference. Can Trump get out the low propensity vote?

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That's how he won in 2016.

nortex97 said:

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Good Morning !

Note to @TheLastRefuge2 - You are correct. And

This time its backfiring. Badly https://t.co/2G4xZtadKg pic.twitter.com/YgB0Dj9YtE

— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) May 6, 2024

Yes, please.

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Media thinks we are stupid enough to watch their reporting and that it means anything. There are not a more brain dead group of people than Cable TV personalities.

aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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The interesting dynamic is the likely voter vs registered voter difference. Can Trump get out the low propensity vote?

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That's how he won in 2016.

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Today's polls don't even resemble what they looked like on this date for Biden in 2020. And as of "right now" there also isn't an excuse to demand emergency mail in ballots for any tom dick and Henry.

Too many people have 2020 derangement syndrome, imho, and can't look at the data rationally.

Trump *might* be ahead in the polls (sorry, I don't trust polls in general), but for the sake of the thread we'll assume they're correct, Republicans are getting crushed down ballot in most swing states. This actually does not bode well for Trump because there is a good chance a lot of people voting against Biden but down ballot for the Democrats, as of right now, will end up voting for Biden when they actually cast their vote.

Biden facing uphill battle in key battleground states as down-ballot Dems lead: poll | Fox News

Rapier108 said:

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Trump *might* be ahead in the polls (sorry, I don't trust polls in general), but for the sake of the thread we'll assume they're correct, Republicans are getting crushed down ballot in most swing states. This actually does not bode well for Trump because there is a good chance a lot of people voting against Biden but down ballot for the Democrats, as of right now, will end up voting for Biden when they actually cast their vote.

Biden facing uphill battle in key battleground states as down-ballot Dems lead: poll | Fox News

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Yeah, I'll hope for the best and I'd rather have good signs than bad but regardless of what the polls say right now or to what degree cheating happened last time or whatever, the bottom line is that I followed the election threads here closely in 2020 and 2022 and tons of people said Trump had it wrapped up, with many confident of even a landslide, in 2020, and then in 2022 we were promised a red wave in revenge for 2020. Neither happened. So I'll remain justifiably skeptical until I actually see him being sworn in. There's a lot of time left.

Joes said:

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Rapier108 said:

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Trump *might* be ahead in the polls (sorry, I don't trust polls in general), but for the sake of the thread we'll assume they're correct, Republicans are getting crushed down ballot in most swing states. This actually does not bode well for Trump because there is a good chance a lot of people voting against Biden but down ballot for the Democrats, as of right now, will end up voting for Biden when they actually cast their vote.

Biden facing uphill battle in key battleground states as down-ballot Dems lead: poll | Fox News

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Yeah, I'll hope for the best and I'd rather have good signs than bad but regardless of what the polls say right now or to what degree cheating happened last time or whatever, the bottom line is that I followed the election threads here closely in 2020 and 2022 and tons of people said Trump had it wrapped up, with many confident of even a landslide, in 2020, and then in 2022 we were promised a red wave in revenge for 2020. Neither happened. So I'll remain justifiably skeptical until I actually see him being sworn in. There's a lot of time left.

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Do you think Biden would have won the 2020 election if there were no mail in balloting?

normalhorn said:

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This guy gets it.

Good grief, everyone. These polls aren't going to to diddly squat when they come up against the reality that the powers that be haven't been slowed down, not ONE BIT. It's still about who counts the votes, not who votes

The only issue that Dems will have is figuring out how to make the election results look somehow in the same galaxy as reality can be bent. Win by 20MM, people are going to light this stupid ****ing country on fire. Win by 2MM, the stench of voter fraud won't be washed away.

The reality is this - liberals have been saying they'll stop at nothing to keep Trump from getting back into the White House. More of you need to pull your fingers out of your ears and heed their words.

I'm almost to the point of taking poop slap bets on the results of the election. It's not going to end up how a majority of conservatives want it to. Plain and simple

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Hungry Ojos said:

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Do you think Biden would have won the 2020 election if there were no mail in balloting?

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Do people think this looks like a campaign rally for, by far, the most popular politician our nation has ever known, who is about to shatter Obama and Trump popular vote records?

Rapier108 said:

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Trump *might* be ahead in the polls (sorry, I don't trust polls in general), but for the sake of the thread we'll assume they're correct, Republicans are getting crushed down ballot in most swing states. This actually does not bode well for Trump because there is a good chance a lot of people voting against Biden but down ballot for the Democrats, as of right now, will end up voting for Biden when they actually cast their vote.

Biden facing uphill battle in key battleground states as down-ballot Dems lead: poll | Fox News

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Keeping your fingers crossed I see.

Hungry Ojos said:

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Joes said:

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Rapier108 said:

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Trump *might* be ahead in the polls (sorry, I don't trust polls in general), but for the sake of the thread we'll assume they're correct, Republicans are getting crushed down ballot in most swing states. This actually does not bode well for Trump because there is a good chance a lot of people voting against Biden but down ballot for the Democrats, as of right now, will end up voting for Biden when they actually cast their vote.

Biden facing uphill battle in key battleground states as down-ballot Dems lead: poll | Fox News

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Yeah, I'll hope for the best and I'd rather have good signs than bad but regardless of what the polls say right now or to what degree cheating happened last time or whatever, the bottom line is that I followed the election threads here closely in 2020 and 2022 and tons of people said Trump had it wrapped up, with many confident of even a landslide, in 2020, and then in 2022 we were promised a red wave in revenge for 2020. Neither happened. So I'll remain justifiably skeptical until I actually see him being sworn in. There's a lot of time left.

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Do you think Biden would have won the 2020 election if there were no mail in balloting?

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I don't know, I don't personally have enough proof of the exact numbers to know either way, maybe he wouldn't have been. I have no problem accepting that some cheating went on last time, but I also think the extreme claims of tens of millions of fake votes is ridiculous. So was it tens of thousands of fake votes in strategic counties or 40 million fake votes blanketed everywhere. Who knows, I assume something in between.

But your question only proves my point further, whether Trump loses legitimately this time, or gets cheated out of it, or wins but then gets assassinated the day after the election, or whatever, I think I have every reason to be skeptical he'll ever be sworn in again, and that's all that matters.

So, I see what you're trying to say, but "We were actually right in 2020 but they cheated" doesn't change the fact that Biden has been in the White House. If your team loses a championship game that everyone knows and saw was because of a criminally blatant bad call and it turns out the ref was an alum of the other school it doesn't change that fact that the other team will still be holding the trophy at the end.

No one wants to hear fans chant "We're the real champions!" while the trophy is sitting in your rival's case. If the Dems cheated and won and got away with it then I guess we better up our game because a moral victory is not going to save this country at this point and I'm past the point of exhaustion hearing excuses from our party about how we'd be winning if the other side wasn't so mean. So, I'll believe it when I see it.

Why must you be a jerk toward me in every single reply?

Obviously you have no desire to actually have a discussion, but just want to be the kid who kicks sand in everyone else's face, then runs to the teacher when someone responds.

People like you just make it all the easier to leave the choice for President blank.

Rapier108 said:

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Why must you be a jerk in every single reply to me?

Obviously you have no desire to actually have a discussion, but just want to be the kid who kicks sand in everyone else's face, then runs to the teacher when someone responds.

People like you just make it all the easier to leave the choice for President blank.

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I'm not being a jerk to you. This is a politics board. If i ruffle your feathers, pay no attention to my posts. If you're satisfied with 4 more years of Biden, that's your call.

TRM said:

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nortex97 said:

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5-Way Numbers:

Arizona: Trump +9
Georgia: Trump +8
Michigan: Trump +2

— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) May 13, 2024

More good to great numbers. Sorry doom and gloomers.

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The interesting dynamic is the likely voter vs registered voter difference. Can Trump get out the low propensity vote?

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Dear Lord, I'm praying so!

Show me the poll with the above AND vs printing machine vs dead people vs double counting.

Joes said:

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I followed the election threads here closely in 2020 and 2022 and tons of people said Trump had it wrapped up, with many confident of even a landslide, in 2020

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That was either wishcasting, or foolishness.

Polling errors of the magnitude required for Trump to win in 2020 rarely happen.

Likewise, I don't get the doom and gloom around the 2024 election. Sure, things could change but the polls in 2016 and 2020 both underestimated Trump's support (2020 polls were actually worse than 2016 in magnitude of error, although did pick the right winner).

If the same holds true this time, then Trump is likely 2-3 points up nationally, and anything under Biden +1 likely wins Trump the Electoral College.

They gonna have a boat load of water leaks in Fulton county.

A ridiculous assertion. Try something else.

Barnyard96 said:

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They gonna have a boat load of water leaks in Fulton county.

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They have to have their mail in ballots and votes counted by 8pm election night. According to newest law Kemp got passed

Idk if any other states have done anything to clean their voting up.

Something needs to be done if Trump wins the election. Republicans need to pass something making states clean their voter's rolls and have counting done by a certain time

It's obvious we cannot rely on states to get it done

As much as Republicans cry about it, they do absolutely nothing. NOTHING in most swing states to stop it.

There also needs to be something saying local judges cannot strike down election rules like they're doing in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Georgia R's passed a law, but R's do NOTHING? Edit, you did say most

2023NCAggies said:

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As much as Republicans cry about it, they do absolutely nothing. NOTHING in most swing states to stop it.

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places like PA had their state house flip to socialist control so what can minority republicans in those states do?

2023NCAggies said:

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Barnyard96 said:

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They gonna have a boat load of water leaks in Fulton county.

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They have to have their mail in ballots and votes counted by 8pm election night. According to newest law Kemp got passed

Idk if any other states have done anything to clean their voting up.

Something needs to be done if Trump wins the election. Republicans need to pass something making states clean their voter's rolls and have counting done by a certain time

It's obvious we cannot rely on states to get it done

As much as Republicans cry about it, they do absolutely nothing. NOTHING in most swing states to stop it.

There also needs to be something saying local judges cannot strike down election rules like they're doing in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

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The Georgia law that was just passed, if it survives Democrat lawsuits, does it apply already for 2024?

I don't see how they don't force a slip or fall then pay off his family for him to go to pasture. The socialist regime needs Gavin installed next.

Great summary from VDH today:

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Joe Biden's personal approval rating is at historic lows; almost all his policies do not poll fifty percent. He is behind Trump in almost all the swing states. And now he lies serially even to sympathetic interviewers. In short, finally Biden has been exposed for what he always was and represented.

Senator and Vice President Joe Biden was always sort of a buffoon. He is by nature a grandstander who handsomely profited from his office while posing as good ole Joe from Scranton.

He is a blowhard meddler, one who proverbially has been "wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades (Robert Gates)," from dissenting on the Bin Laden raid to his trisection of Iraq scheme.

He is a fabulist who believes that the more animated he misleads and slurs ("semi-fascists" "fat", "lying dog-faced pony soldier", "chumps", "dregs of society", etc), the more likely he is to get away with it. He is a confessed plagiarist. And he has also invented much of his biography, from would be star, college-scholarship athlete and brilliant law student to semi-truck driver and jailed civil rights activist. His uncle, we are instructed, was eaten by cannibals. Joe assures us that he was the first in his family to go to college.

And he is a racist with a repertory of racial taunts and smears unrivaled among modern politicians ("junkie", "boy", "you ain't black", "the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy", "put y'all back in chains", the Corn Pop and golden-leg hairs sagas, the "racial jungle" memes, the strange brag about Delaware as a "slave state" (e.g., "You don't know my state. My state was a slave state. My state is a border state."), and his encomia for the old Democratic racists of the Senate from former Klansman Robert Byrd (Biden's self-described "mentor" and "guide") to segregationist James Eastland ("never called me boy").

Biden has always had a mean streak that explains why for years he lied about the tragic, fatal auto accident of his first wife and child, using it to libel the truck driver, who was neither drunk nor culpable but smeared publicly for years by Biden as intoxicated and guilty. For years he ignored the pleas of the trucker's family to please stop libeling an innocent driver.

Biden just told his greatest whopper that inflation was at 9 percent (actually 1.4 percent) when he took office and yet soon spiked to 9 percent due to his reckless deficit spending and money printing spree.

But recently Biden has reached a nadir and even the Left is resigned to him as a mere construct. After bragging after October 7 that his support for Israel was rock-solid he is now cutting off military aid as it attempts finally to end the Hamas murderous threata reversion to old Joe Biden who in his long past has previously threatened to cut off Israel while boasting later that anyone who did so was reprehensible. (Leveraging congressional mandated aid for political advantage is precisely the (false) allegation of politicking that the Democrats demagogued to impeach Trumpto the then cheers of Biden himself).

But his sell out of Israel is but a small tessera in his election pandering mosaic. He will again begin drawing down the strategic petroleum reserve to lower gas prices during the campaign. He has badgered Ukraine not to hit Russian oil facilities. He has illegally forgiven billions in student loan aid to regain the elite youth vote. And as the campaign season begins, so too Biden suddenly poses as a border enforcerafter letting in nearly 10-million illegal aliens.

Biden has always put the agendas of his own and his family above the national interest. We witnessed that when he bragged that he fired the Ukrainian prosecutor looking into his son's Burisma skullduggery. The Biden consortium is corrupt and was enriched with over $25 million through foreign interests' assurance that Senator and Vice President Joe Biden would deliver on their quid pro quo investments in him.

Any other major politician who habitually invaded the private space of women and preteens to blow on their hair, gobble their necks, squeeze and hug far too long, and be accused of sexual assault would have long since been cancelled by the left.

Add the old disturbing narrative of a naked Vice President Joe Biden exiting his pool in front of female secret service agents, the showering with his pre-teen daughter, the Frank Biden and Hunter naked selfies, and there seems something eerie among the Biden family.

Despite fierce denials, the entire lawfare scheme directed at Trump originated with the White House. Biden was always said to have been exasperated with Merrick Garland for not hastily enough going after Trump.

The misadventurous Georgia prosecutor Nathan Wade met with and was tutored by the White House counsel's office. One of the top Biden DOJ prosecutors was dispatched to rescue the bungling Alvin Bragg farce.

Jack Smith, appointed by the Biden DOJ to go after Biden's 2024 presidential rival, timed his indictments to coincide with the campaign season, even as Smith's office mishandled classified files taken at Mar-a-Lago to bolster its prosecutionand then lied about it.

Hard-won American deterrence was destroyed by the humiliation in Afghanistan and the lies surrounding the disaster, the Chinese balloon flight and the misinformation about it, the wars in Ukraine, Gaza, and on the Red Sea, and the accompanying disinformation from the White House.

Such recklessness abroad is the bookend to the home front where massive borrowing, the destruction of the border, crippling inflation, spiraling crime, and the epidemic of "progressive" anti-Semitism on campuses have made American almost unrecognizable.

Again, at the heart of this Biden catastrophe is the Faustian bargain of 2020 when unelectable leftist candidates dropped out in unison to use a fumbling Biden as their more presentable veneer. So he was foisted upon the nation to serve as "moderate" cover to advance a radical, veritable Obama third-term. In that sense, his duties were ceremonialas the hard-left channeled through him the most radical agenda in U.S. history, and found his debility and dementia advantageousthe country be damned.

If Biden makes it to and through the convention, he and his record remain indefensible. And so expect his campaign largely to be waged through lawfare against Trump, and massive infusions of leftist cash to ensure record mail-in and early voting. In the campaign Biden will become an afterthought, a ghost, vapor, as his party seeks to construct the entire election one of leftwing, blue-city prosecutors, judges, and juries versus serial defendant Trump.

But will Nemesis first catch up to Biden's long record of hubris and dishonesty?

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May God protect us from this evil the Democrat Party has become.

They're gaslighting you.

For example:
Look in PA, Trump wins PA, but is polling 5% worse with whites. Biden is at 50% with blacks. Blacks may think he sucks, but he support isn't going to crater from 90+% to 50%.

WI - Trump has less support among white voters than in 2020 and is losing the suburbs by 8% when he won them by 12 in 2020, and getting is polling at 0% of the black vote. Biden is only getting 40% of the black vote and 14% of blacks are gonna vote for Jill Stein over Biden.

Think critically about the data!

Well if they're gaslighting us, they're also starting to gaslight the lib media because they're starting to see the light of what's coming. You should be worried.

I don't believe Biden will be Trump's opponent in November…

You could be right, but who?

Comrade Newsom seems pretty effective at lying about everything while destroying everything. Would be a perfect fit.