Muh Polls

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texagbeliever
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In reply to Ag_0112358132134 • 12:51p, 4/1/24
Ag_0112358132134 said:
texagbeliever said:
Ag_0112358132134 said:
Very informative OP. It seems like most people on this board don't realize that this country is about to go irreversibly democrat in both houses of Congress and in the White House. After the next 4 years of complete democrat control, the elections will be so rigged, it won't matter if 90% of the population comes to its senses and starts voting Republican. The left will manufacture the votes they need to maintain control, and anybody questioning it will get a visit from the FBI.

There is not much we can do about it at this point, but everybody needs to be aware so they can plan accordingly.
This post makes no sense.

Everything is lost if we lose 2024. But instead of a call to do everything you can in 2024 the call is to give up and concede defeat. Quite the loser mentality.

I'm definitely not advocating that we concede defeat. Everybody should go vote and give it their all.

But pretty much all of the swing states are now controlled by dems, and they will manufacture the votes they need. Republicans haven't made a dent in mail in voting or cleaning up the voter rolls. Even in Texas we have not done nearly enough to ensure a Cruz victory. Obviously everyone should go vote, but it's mostly out of our hands at this point.
How sure are you about the last paragraph? 99%, 90%, 50%.
If you are wrong is stating that helping or hurting your desired outcome?
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agsalaska
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1:11p, 4/1/24
AG
For the record and before some of yall go completely off the rails, the OP is just pushing BS propaganda.

The polls in 2022 were some of the most accurate in recent history, showing a D bias nationally of 0.8%.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/

And yes, Nate Silver is, in fact, a Democrat.

Pretty interesting stuff for those that are truly interested in the art of polling




The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.

Elko is a loser and we will be buying him out for some obscene amount of money in two years. - Agsalaska

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LMCane
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In reply to policywonk98 • 2:16p, 4/1/24
policywonk98 said:
Florida GOP was actually turning things around and was over performing prior to DeSantis. His leadership has just taken it to an even higher level.


I am worried that state GOPs in swing states are in too much disarray to perform at expectations or overperform vs. polling data.


Money seems to be a big issue.
don't worry my friend-

Lara Trump is on it!
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Rockdoc
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In reply to LMCane • 2:20p, 4/1/24
AG
LMCane said:
policywonk98 said:
Florida GOP was actually turning things around and was over performing prior to DeSantis. His leadership has just taken it to an even higher level.


I am worried that state GOPs in swing states are in too much disarray to perform at expectations or overperform vs. polling data.


Money seems to be a big issue.
don't worry my friend-

Lara Trump is on it!

Agreed. That's a good thing!
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SoyTanLento
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In reply to agsalaska • 2:45p, 4/1/24
agsalaska said:
What about the other 2022 elections?
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SoyTanLento
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In reply to agsalaska • 2:47p, 4/1/24
Apples and oranges. Silver is including generic ballot results. They can be really accurate in the aggregate, but miss on the important battleground seats where control is won.
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agsalaska
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In reply to SoyTanLento • 2:55p, 4/1/24
AG
ImSoDumb said:
Apples and oranges. Silver is including generic ballot results. They can be really accurate in the aggregate, but miss on the important battleground seats where control is won.


That is a gross oversimplification of what Silver does. It also does not change the fact that the original OP is just cherry picked data.

I've got to get back to work y'all have fun.
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.

Elko is a loser and we will be buying him out for some obscene amount of money in two years. - Agsalaska

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Gordo14
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2:58p, 4/1/24
For what it's worth if the election was today I would guess 55-45 Trump wins. But all of the visible tailwinds are on Biden's side. Unless something unexpected happens I think it'll be 65-35 Biden on election day. But plenty of time for something unexpected to happen.
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texagbeliever
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In reply to Gordo14 • 3:00p, 4/1/24
Gordo14 said:
For what it's worth if the election was today I would guess 55-45 Trump wins. But all of the visible tailwinds are on Biden's side. Unless something unexpected happens I think it'll be 65-35 Biden on election day. But plenty of time for something unexpected to happen.
What are all the visible tailwinds for Biden exactly?

Immigration, Inflation, job market (hiring freezes are pretty open, SGA budgets are getting cut), and crime is not going to magically go away.
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Rockdoc
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In reply to Gordo14 • 3:06p, 4/1/24
AG
Biden has no tailwinds unless it's flatulence. You'll have to explain.
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John Armfield
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3:27p, 4/1/24
[If all you're going to do is troll then take some extended time off -- Staff]
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Logos Stick
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In reply to agsalaska • 3:33p, 4/1/24
agsalaska said:
Logos Stick said:
agsalaska said:
What about the other 2022 elections?


No idea on specifics but...

we had record inflation and the House is pretty much 50-50 now.

There was no red wave, which was predicted. Demographics and morality in this country have changed significantly.
It just appears cherry picked to me.


As for the red wave, not really. It was being predicted by Fox, Hannity, Trump, and others.

A lot of professional pollsters were skeptical at best.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-2022-midterm-forecasts-performed/


Many trusted, independent pollsters were predicting it, as they should have give record inflation! That's what the OP is all about! The polls were wrong!

Anyone with a brain would have predicted it given record inflation and a war. But it was not to be. More proof that the country is toast!

You know how many seats the Rs picked up in 2010? Obama's first mid term? 60!!!!!!
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Some Junkie Cosmonaut
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In reply to Gordo14 • 3:39p, 4/1/24
AG
Gordo14 said:
For what it's worth if the election was today I would guess 55-45 Trump wins. But all of the visible tailwinds are on Biden's side. Unless something unexpected happens I think it'll be 65-35 Biden on election day. But plenty of time for something unexpected to happen.


What tail winds?

For the life of me I can't figure out how anyone could look around at this current **** sandwich and go to the booth and vote for more of it.
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texagbeliever
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In reply to Some Junkie Cosmonaut • 3:43p, 4/1/24
Some Junkie Cosmonaut said:
Gordo14 said:
For what it's worth if the election was today I would guess 55-45 Trump wins. But all of the visible tailwinds are on Biden's side. Unless something unexpected happens I think it'll be 65-35 Biden on election day. But plenty of time for something unexpected to happen.


What tail winds?

For the life of me I can't figure out how anyone could look around at this current **** sandwich and go to the booth and vote for more of it.
Only possible ones that come to mind:
1. Stock market (this is a stretch in my opinion)
2. Ukraine war ending
3. Israel-Hamas peace deal
4. EO ridding college debt

Seriously I can't think of anything else. Abortion has lost steam. The Stock market is already at ATH. With Japan and UK officially in recessions I'm wondering if the US market didn't get propped up by people abandoning faster sinking ships.
Really Ukraine war I don't see how a true decisive victory is possible and Israel-Hamas is more likely to get more heated than cool off in my opinion.
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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to Logos Stick • 3:52p, 4/1/24
The Rs ran terrible candidates in many if not most of the purple areas. Then it was all about ground game.

The GOP leadership in Florida, California, Nevada, and New York were organized, ran strong ground games, and promoted candidates that could actually win the purple districts.

Then you have almost everywhere else.

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agsalaska
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In reply to Logos Stick • 3:55p, 4/1/24
AG
Logos Stick said:
agsalaska said:
Logos Stick said:
agsalaska said:
What about the other 2022 elections?


No idea on specifics but...

we had record inflation and the House is pretty much 50-50 now.

There was no red wave, which was predicted. Demographics and morality in this country have changed significantly.
It just appears cherry picked to me.


As for the red wave, not really. It was being predicted by Fox, Hannity, Trump, and others.

A lot of professional pollsters were skeptical at best.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-2022-midterm-forecasts-performed/


Many trusted, independent pollsters were predicting it, as they should have give record inflation! That's what the OP is all about! The polls were wrong!

Anyone with a brain would have predicted it given record inflation and a war. But it was not to be. More proof that the country is toast!

You know how many seats the Rs picked up in 2010? Obama's first mid term? 60!!!!!!
They were not wrong. You were mislead.

Again, do some further reading.
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.

Elko is a loser and we will be buying him out for some obscene amount of money in two years. - Agsalaska

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NoahAg
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In reply to FireAg • 4:10p, 4/1/24
FireAg said:
The current RCP Electoral College polling averages favor Trump for now...

If you account for toss ups, it looks like this:


If you remove toss ups (meaning you give each candidate the battleground states they currently have a polling lead in), it looks like this:


At this moment, and assuming a fair election, I think Trump has the edge in the upcoming election...

A lot can change between now and then, though...
LOL, those are some orange colored glasses for sure.
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FireAg
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In reply to NoahAg • 4:12p, 4/1/24
AG
NoahAg said:
FireAg said:
The current RCP Electoral College polling averages favor Trump for now...

If you account for toss ups, it looks like this:


If you remove toss ups (meaning you give each candidate the battleground states they currently have a polling lead in), it looks like this:


At this moment, and assuming a fair election, I think Trump has the edge in the upcoming election...

A lot can change between now and then, though...
LOL, those are some orange colored glasses for sure.

These are averages based on a conglomerate of recent polling data…

It actually is the least "orange-colored" glasses out there…
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Casual Cynic
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4:14p, 4/1/24
Republicans took the house back, it just wasn't this huge crushing victory that some people expected.
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Rockdoc
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4:22p, 4/1/24
AG
I'm trying to figure out what Biden had done as president. Has he done anything to help the country? Anything? And freebies and handouts don't count for anything in my book. Can't see how anyone could vote for that.
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2023NCAggies
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4:31p, 4/1/24
Just looked up the 2022 Nevada senate race, Adam Laxalt lost by 8k votes

Looks like the Harry Reid cheat machine is almost dead.
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Some Junkie Cosmonaut
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In reply to NoahAg • 4:47p, 4/1/24
AG
NoahAg said:
FireAg said:
The current RCP Electoral College polling averages favor Trump for now...

If you account for toss ups, it looks like this:


If you remove toss ups (meaning you give each candidate the battleground states they currently have a polling lead in), it looks like this:


At this moment, and assuming a fair election, I think Trump has the edge in the upcoming election...

A lot can change between now and then, though...
LOL, those are some orange colored glasses for sure.


LOL, share with the class why you think Biden deserves to be reelected.
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oh no
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In reply to Some Junkie Cosmonaut • 7:24p, 4/1/24
AG
The threat to their "right" to crush little baby skulls with forceps, extract them from the womb, and toss them in the trash is why we need more Biden.

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lotoarmy
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8:26p, 4/1/24
AG
The only votes that matter, come in at 3:00 AM!
Last of the Old Army
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NoahAg
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In reply to Some Junkie Cosmonaut • 10:09a, 4/2/24
Some Junkie Cosmonaut said:
NoahAg said:
FireAg said:
The current RCP Electoral College polling averages favor Trump for now...

If you account for toss ups, it looks like this:


If you remove toss ups (meaning you give each candidate the battleground states they currently have a polling lead in), it looks like this:


At this moment, and assuming a fair election, I think Trump has the edge in the upcoming election...

A lot can change between now and then, though...
LOL, those are some orange colored glasses for sure.


LOL, share with the class why you think Biden deserves to be reelected.
This isn't about who deserves to win. This is about the reality we live in. After what we've seen the last 8 years, to assume Trump will win AZ, NV, PA, GA, WI, and MI is about as delusional as believing the Ags are going 14-0 every year.
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JayM
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In reply to NoahAg • 10:19a, 4/2/24
NoahAg said:
Some Junkie Cosmonaut said:
NoahAg said:
FireAg said:
The current RCP Electoral College polling averages favor Trump for now...

If you account for toss ups, it looks like this:


If you remove toss ups (meaning you give each candidate the battleground states they currently have a polling lead in), it looks like this:


At this moment, and assuming a fair election, I think Trump has the edge in the upcoming election...

A lot can change between now and then, though...
LOL, those are some orange colored glasses for sure.


LOL, share with the class why you think Biden deserves to be reelected.
This isn't about who deserves to win. This is about the reality we live in. After what we've seen the last 8 years, to assume Trump will win AZ, NV, PA, GA, WI, and MI is about as delusional as believing the Ags are going 14-0 every year.
Is this then locked in stone? The republicans can never win again because of AZ, NV, PA, GA, WI and MI?
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to NoahAg • 10:26a, 4/2/24
NoahAg said:
Some Junkie Cosmonaut said:
NoahAg said:
FireAg said:
The current RCP Electoral College polling averages favor Trump for now...

If you account for toss ups, it looks like this:


If you remove toss ups (meaning you give each candidate the battleground states they currently have a polling lead in), it looks like this:


At this moment, and assuming a fair election, I think Trump has the edge in the upcoming election...

A lot can change between now and then, though...
LOL, those are some orange colored glasses for sure.


LOL, share with the class why you think Biden deserves to be reelected.
This isn't about who deserves to win. This is about the reality we live in. After what we've seen the last 8 years, to assume Trump will win AZ, NV, PA, GA, WI, and MI is about as delusional as believing the Ags are going 14-0 every year.
RFK will single handily win AZ, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina for Trump. Margins are too small in those states to overcome him for the Dems.

Nevada would be the only one I would second guess, Trump lost by 20~30k cannot remember. But Nevada has been slowly moving right since Reid died and Laxhalt lost by 8k.
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policywonk98
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In reply to FireAg • 10:28a, 4/2/24
AG
FireAg said:
The current RCP Electoral College polling averages favor Trump for now...

If you account for toss ups, it looks like this:


If you remove toss ups (meaning you give each candidate the battleground states they currently have a polling lead in), it looks like this:


At this moment, and assuming a fair election, I think Trump has the edge in the upcoming election...

A lot can change between now and then, though...



This map based on current polling is the point of the OP here I believe. Pre-2018 GOP used to pretty regularly overperform polling. Since 2018 and especially 2022, they have underperformed.

Over performance of a poll is typically indicative of well run party apparatus on the ground(See Florida).

There are red flags in the GOP except in FL and maybe a few safe GOP places right now. Even in Texas there have been some losses or closer than normal races where there should not be in the last couple of cycles.

Perhaps it's all figured out, but the GOP is showing signs of organizational issues across the country at the moment. Seems that part of it is candidate recruitment and the eventual primary winners not being strong candidates for a general. Part of it is ground game disarray. One of those two things can put victory in jeopardy. Both of things most certainly puts a lot of weight on just old fashioned inclination to vote for a party over a candidate. Or inclination to vote against a party vs for a candidate.
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oh no
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10:44a, 4/2/24
AG
Polls can take a pulse from registered and likely voters re: how they really feel, but they don't account for the lack of anti-fraud controls and accountability in our corrupt system or the level of funding provided to harvesting ("fortifying") operations in the big urban areas.

There's still too much time for leftists to take out any one, two, or maybe even all three of Trump, Biden, and RFKjr. With Trump assassinated or in prison, Biden's family paid off for him to step down and check into an assisted living facility for Alzheimer patients... things can change quickly.

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NoahAg
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In reply to JayM • 10:47a, 4/2/24
JayM said:
NoahAg said:
Some Junkie Cosmonaut said:
NoahAg said:
FireAg said:
The current RCP Electoral College polling averages favor Trump for now...

If you account for toss ups, it looks like this:


If you remove toss ups (meaning you give each candidate the battleground states they currently have a polling lead in), it looks like this:


At this moment, and assuming a fair election, I think Trump has the edge in the upcoming election...

A lot can change between now and then, though...
LOL, those are some orange colored glasses for sure.


LOL, share with the class why you think Biden deserves to be reelected.
This isn't about who deserves to win. This is about the reality we live in. After what we've seen the last 8 years, to assume Trump will win AZ, NV, PA, GA, WI, and MI is about as delusional as believing the Ags are going 14-0 every year.
Is this then locked in stone? The republicans can never win again because of AZ, NV, PA, GA, WI and MI?
I won't say "never" but certainly not all 6 in 2024. Remember the "red wave" of 2022? Me neither, b/c it didn't happen. Biden is terrible but the Trump hate is very strong.

Even dems who don't like biden will walk over hot coals to vote against Trump. "Blue no matter who" is a real thing. Not to mention ballot harvesting, mail in ballots, dead voters, etc.
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agAngeldad
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10:52a, 4/2/24
I don't think people listen to the news much anymore. Streaming has eliminated most commercials and news and people just don't care. Unless something drastic happens, ie Floyd, COVID, Protest events, I could see 24 swinging again. What concerns me is the rhetoric after the swing. It will make the summer of 2020 look like a small blimp.
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JayM
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In reply to NoahAg • 12:02p, 4/2/24
NoahAg said:
JayM said:
NoahAg said:
Some Junkie Cosmonaut said:
NoahAg said:
FireAg said:
The current RCP Electoral College polling averages favor Trump for now...

If you account for toss ups, it looks like this:


If you remove toss ups (meaning you give each candidate the battleground states they currently have a polling lead in), it looks like this:


At this moment, and assuming a fair election, I think Trump has the edge in the upcoming election...

A lot can change between now and then, though...
LOL, those are some orange colored glasses for sure.


LOL, share with the class why you think Biden deserves to be reelected.
This isn't about who deserves to win. This is about the reality we live in. After what we've seen the last 8 years, to assume Trump will win AZ, NV, PA, GA, WI, and MI is about as delusional as believing the Ags are going 14-0 every year.
Is this then locked in stone? The republicans can never win again because of AZ, NV, PA, GA, WI and MI?
I won't say "never" but certainly not all 6 in 2024. Remember the "red wave" of 2022? Me neither, b/c it didn't happen. Biden is terrible but the Trump hate is very strong.

Even dems who don't like biden will walk over hot coals to vote against Trump. "Blue no matter who" is a real thing. Not to mention ballot harvesting, mail in ballots, dead voters, etc.
Some of those races were pretty close right?
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doubledog
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In reply to Funky Winkerbean • 5:20p, 4/2/24
Funky Winkerbean said:
"Overperformed"
Is that the new word for cheated?
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nortex97
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7:16a, 4/6/24
AG
In the real world I see Trump is up handily still, despite the primary being functionally over and doom predictions, in places that will matter;



This is also a remarkable piece I highly recommend reading, where RCP's Carl Cannon responds to, of all things, accusation of bias from the pathetic, contemptible very fake news NYT:



It's highly entertaining to read his rebuttal to the hit piece. They claimed (among many falsehoods) that RCP was wrong in 2020 in favor of Trump, and that they have a bias in favor of him in their aggregate polls. Money graff:

Quote:
The RCP Poll Average
In his email informing Bevan of the story he was writing, Peters said he was looking into RCP's election analyses on the grounds that they "tended to skew toward or favor Trump." He said he was focusing on the RCP Polling Averages, "which your competitors have questioned for including Rasmussen, Trafalgar and others."

This complaint doesn't withstand scrutiny either. First, to the degree the RCP Poll Averages favored one candidate over the other, they favored the Democrat Joe Biden more than the Republican Donald Trump. Second, in the seven closest states in the 2020 election those decided by three percentage points or less the RCP Poll Averages were demonstrably more accurate than the New York Times' own poll, and it wasn't even close.

As you can see from the chart below, in five of the seven battleground states in 2020, the Times was off by more than four points in Biden's favor. By contrast, the error in the RCP Poll Average in those seven states was only 1.47 points and the only reason it was that high was because the polls in Wisconsin were terribly off, including a final one by Washington Post/ABC News showing Biden leading by 17 points and one by the New York Times itself showing Biden with an 11-point lead. Subtract out Wisconsin and the error of the RCP Poll Averages in six remaining battleground states in 2020 was 0.72 points.


Take special note of Pennsylvania, the state singled out by the Times. As the chart shows, the RCP average in the Keystone State was, well, perfect. It had Biden leading Trump by 1.2 percentage points. When the votes were tallied, Biden won by … 1.2 percentage points.

RealClearPolitics also offered a feature called the "no toss-ups" map in which the Electoral College votes are assigned to whichever candidate was leading in the RCP average. Our map had the Democratic ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris winning 319 electoral votes compared to 219 for Republicans Donald Trump and Mike Pence, very close to the final total.

You can go down a rabbit hole very quickly when parsing these numbers, so I'll make two final points before moving on.

First, a discerning reader who followed the RCP averages in 2020 would have concluded both that Joe Biden held a larger lead in the national popular vote than Hillary Clinton had four years earlier and that in the battleground states where the election would be decided the race was tight, meaning that Trump prevailing in the Electoral College was a real possibility, just as it had been in 2016.

Second when all the votes were finally counted, it was clear that the polls touted by RCP's critics were significantly less accurate than the ones they criticized. Their preferred polls were unfailingly too pro-Democratic. Was this due to incompetence? Inadvertent bias? Something else? Examining that question would have made for an interesting story. Instead, the New York Times just pretended none of it happened and disparaged a competitor.
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Reno Hightower
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9:01a, 4/6/24
The ballot harvesters will be churning
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