From the study linked in OP's article:
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2814274?guestAccessKey=e429b9a8-72ac-42ed-8dbc-599b0f509890&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=012424


"Many US women report experiencing sexual violence, and many seek abortion for rape-related pregnancies.1 Following the US Supreme Court's 2022 Dobbs v Jackson Women's Health Organization (Dobbs) decision overturning Roe v Wade, 14 states have outlawed abortion at any gestational duration.2 Although 5 of these states allow exceptions for rape-related pregnancies, stringent gestational duration limits apply, and survivors must report the rape to law enforcement, a requirement likely to disqualify most survivors of rape, of whom only 21% report their rape to police.3

Post Dobbs, 10 or fewer legal abortions occurred monthly in each of the total abortion ban states.4 We estimated rape-related pregnancies by state to assess how abortion bans affected survivors of rape.

Methods
Because to our knowledge no recent reliable state-level data on completed vaginal rapes (forced and/or drug/alcoholfacilitated vaginal penetration) are available, we analyzed multiple data sources to estimate reported and unreported rapes in states with total abortion bans (Table 15). We also estimated the number of resulting pregnancies based on findings from prior research on rape-related pregnancy rates (eMethods in Supplement 1). This study followed the relevant sections of the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) reporting guideline. The institutional review boards of our institutions did not consider analyses of publicly available data human participants research.

To estimate the contemporary incidence of vaginal rape nationally, we analyzed the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC's) 2016 to 2017 National Intimate Partner and Sexual Violence survey (which used special methods to accurately ascertain reported and unreported rapes). We adjusted for the fraction of survivors who were female individuals aged 15 to 45 years using data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics' (BJS) annual survey on criminal victimization (which is known to underestimate rapes5)3 and further adjusted for the percentage of rapes that are vaginal.1 We calculated 95% CIs using measures of uncertainty from the CDC survey. The CDC and BJS surveys do not include state-level data; thus, we apportioned the 2022 nationwide rape estimate among states based on the US Federal Bureau of Investigation's most recent Uniform Crime Reports, which include rapes reported to law enforcement in 2019.

To estimate rape-related pregnancies, we multiplied the state-level estimate of vaginal rapes by the fraction likely to result in pregnancy (eMethods in Supplement 1)6 and then adjusted for the number of months between July 1, 2022, and January 1, 2024, that a total abortion ban was in effect. We used Stata, version 16.1 (StataCorp), to analyze the BJS survey data and Microsoft Excel for other calculations."

So basically to come up with this number they multiplied the state estimate of vaginal rape times the fraction likely to result in pregnancy from July 2022 to Jan 1st 2024.

Seems like there's a lot of variables that could skew that number.

Liars lie. News at 11

Methodology looks to be as accurate and trustworthy as climate models.

Pretty sure the organisms in that photo aren't one of the statistics

This reminds me of the Travis county health director saying that 2000 AISD kids would die if they held in person school during covid. Progressives pull data out of their ass and the media prints it as truth.

waitwhat? said:

---

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/health/article/texas-sees-estimated-26k-pregnancies-rape-18625692.php

Quote:

---

More than 26K rape-related pregnancies estimated after Texas outlawed abortions, new study says

---

This seems like pretty likely BS. Rape related abortions are (were) estimated to be about 2% of all abortions. There used to be 50k/year total in Texas, so about 1,300 over a 16 month period. Pretty unlikely for only 5% of rape related pregnancies to have resulted in abortion, meaning this almost certainly significantly overinflates the number and is just intended to rile up the pro-choice crowd and then quietly be disproven.

Honestly if true, it just goes to show that even rape victims would rather keep the kid than kill it.

---

If true it must be all the young illegals coming across our border welcomed in be Robinette.

They list out their methodology formula in one of the supplementals.

The numbers they use to figure out pregnancy rate seems relatively consistent and logical (albeit a bit cherry-picked). The problem is they have such an absurdly high estimate for the number of rapes that occur and don't take contraception into account. BC and IUD's are extremely common and Plan B is offered by SANE nurses if the girl didn't buy it already.

I would venture to guess that this number is the number of women who say it was rape, likely to get around abortion laws. It wouldn't surprise me to find out that Planned Parenthood coaches women to say it was rape to provide future legal protection.

I'm sure the number has gone up, but that number sounds kinda sus.

HumpitPuryear said:

---

Pretty sure the organisms in that photo aren't one of the statistics

This reminds me of the Travis county health director saying that 2000 AISD kids would die if they held in person school during covid. Progressives pull data out of their ass and the media prints it as truth.

---

Most progressive lack critical thinking skills. That's why they're progressive.

12thMan9 said:

---

91AggieLawyer said:

---

Quote:

---

Conflict of Interest Disclosures: Dr Dickman reported that he is a plaintiff in several lawsuits challenging abortion restrictions in Montana. Dr White reported personal fees from the Society of Family Planning Stipend as well as grants from the Susan Thompson Buffett Foundation, Collaborative for Gender and Reproductive Equity, and Jacob and Terese Hershey Foundation during the conduct of the study. Dr Lupez reported grants from National Research Service Award T32HP32715 during the conduct of the study.

---

This is a TRASH piece of propaganda and is another reason why the medical "profession" is becoming a joke. This shouldn't be on a far left website, much less in a medical journal.

And people make fun of lawyers.

---

Well, he did say he was involved in lawsuits, which means there are lawyers involved......

---

True, but there are statutes allowing sanctions for frivolous suits.

they want all unwanted pregnancies to be able to be considered rape so they can murder any baby at any time

DrEvazanPhD said:

---

That's a lot of rape.

---

Someone needs to check their math...

They say that their rape related pregnancy rate is 5%, so that equates to roughly 520,000 women between 15-45 raped in the state in a 16 month timeframe. Considering that's about 10% of the female population in that age range, that just seems impossible.

There were roughly 390,000 babies born in Texas in 2022. Are we really to believe that 10% of the kids born on a 16 month timeframe came from rape?

Texas had 50k-55k abortions a year prior to Dobbs, and we're expected to believe that half were from rape?


I don't buy this at all.

Looked up the study that they took their 5% number from.

In 1996, it estimated there were 32000 rape related pregnancies in the US. Considering proportional population growth and a longer timeframe, that estimate would be, nationally, 53,000 over a 16 month period today, and these guys are saying Texas alone had 26,000 despite having less than 10% of the US population. Taken together, these numbers make no sense.

lots of coping and seething in this thread from a group of people who refuses to belief the horrifying consequences of cruel, extreme abortion bans like the one in Texas.

ABATTBQ11 said:

---

Someone needs to check their math...

They say that their rape related pregnancy rate is 5%, so that equates to roughly 520,000 women between 15-45 raped in the state in a 16 month timeframe. Considering that's about 10% of the female population in that age range, that just seems impossible.

There were roughly 390,000 babies born in Texas in 2022. Are we really to believe that 10% of the kids born on a 16 month timeframe came from rape?

Texas had 50k-55k abortions a year prior to Dobbs, and we're expected to believe that half were from rape?


I don't buy this at all.

---

Texas is by far the biggest state with no rape exception. And something like 70% (obviously an estimate) of rapes are unreported. Also Texas had a de facto ban that predated Dobbs because the SCOTUS didn't strike it down.

Sounds to me like the fear of punishment for rape isn't high enough.

Hang'em infront of the court house

barbacoa taco said:

---

lots of coping and seething in this thread from a group of people who refuses to belief the horrifying consequences of cruel, extreme abortion bans like the one in Texas.

---

Does rape related pregnancy happen? Sure. Does it happen at the astronomical rate that this study claims. More than likely not. If you want to say there should be a rape related exception to the action ban in Texas, fine, but don't stretch the truth about how prevalent of an issue it is to the point of lying.

Lonestar_Ag09 said:

---

Texas ban has prevented 26k infant murders! An accomplishment to be praised

We have had two children neither time was my wife asked how they were conceived. I also have 6 nieces none of those were questioned either. When do these make believe tally's get polled?

---

Considering it's your wife, no one would think she would need to ask how they were conceived...

...what a strange thing to say.

barbacoa taco said:

---

ABATTBQ11 said:

---

Someone needs to check their math...

They say that their rape related pregnancy rate is 5%, so that equates to roughly 520,000 women between 15-45 raped in the state in a 16 month timeframe. Considering that's about 10% of the female population in that age range, that just seems impossible.

There were roughly 390,000 babies born in Texas in 2022. Are we really to believe that 10% of the kids born on a 16 month timeframe came from rape?

Texas had 50k-55k abortions a year prior to Dobbs, and we're expected to believe that half were from rape?


I don't buy this at all.

---

Texas is by far the biggest state with no rape exception. And something like 70% (obviously an estimate) of rapes are unreported. Also Texas had a de facto ban that predated Dobbs because the SCOTUS didn't strike it down.

---

All of which means nothing to the fact that if you do basic, back of the napkin math, these numbers make no sense at all. Let's say Texas had 55k abortions a year pre Dobbs and 375000 births a year based on 2021 data. Extrapolate to 16 months and that's 573k pregnancies in a 16 month timeframe.

Are you really expecting us to believe that 4.5% of ALL pregnancies, planned and unplanned, come from rape? Considering 85% of American women are on birth control, it just seems highly implausible that so many are a) raped at the right time of their cycle for fertilization to happen and b) just happen experience a failure of birth control when most methods are well over 95% effective. ETA If you work out the odds assuming a 4 day fertilization window, 85% BC rate, and a 3% BC failure rate, that's about a 2.5% chance of any rape being capable of resulting in pregnancy. Even happening is another story. That would require about 750k rapes annually to produce that 26,000 number in 16 months. Considering the numbers presented below on actual reports, that's just unbelievable.


Let's look at it another way: In 2020, Texas had 13,500 reported rapes. If the rape related pregnancy rate was actually 5% and this 26000 number is correct, then the rape total is 520,000 in 16 months, or about 390,000 per year. That would require that unreported rate to be 96.5%, not 70%. If we stick with that 70% and take the 5% rate at face value, we arrive at 45,000 total rapes per year and only 3000 pregnancies over the same 16 month period instead of 26,000.

barbacoa taco said:

---

Lonestar_Ag09 said:

---

Texas ban has prevented 26k infant murders! An accomplishment to be praised

We have had two children neither time was my wife asked how they were conceived. I also have 6 nieces none of those were questioned either. When do these make believe tally's get polled?

---

Considering it's your wife, no one would think she would need to ask how they were conceived...

...what a strange thing to say.

---

The primary assumption behind the "1 in 5 women are raped" and low rate of reporting are that the majority of rapes are domestic. So, not a strange thing to ask how they're getting the statistics to find how many children are born through rape.

ABATTBQ11 said:

---

Let's look at it another way: In 2020, Texas had 13,500 reported rapes. If the rape related pregnancy rate was actually 5% and this 26000 number is correct, then the rape total is 520,000 in 16 months, or about 390,000 per year. That would require that unreported rate to be 96.5%, not 70%. If we stick with that 70% and take the 5% rate at face value, we arrive at 45,000 total rapes per year and only 3000 pregnancies over the same 16 month period instead of 26,000.

---

The rape related pregnancy rate the article is using is 12.4%, which comes from the CDC. The 5% figure comes from the 1996 article.

The number of rapes they estimated for the 16 months is 211,919. Using Texas' 2022 reporting numbers, the reported # of rapes can be estimated to 19,519. Which gives a victim reporting rate 9.2% without removing the ~7-10% estimate of false reports. An absurdly low reporting rate.

ABATTBQ11 said:

---

Someone needs to check their math...

They say that their rape related pregnancy rate is 5%, so that equates to roughly 520,000 women between 15-45 raped in the state in a 16 month timeframe. Considering that's about 10% of the female population in that age range, that just seems impossible.

There were roughly 390,000 babies born in Texas in 2022. Are we really to believe that 10% of the kids born on a 16 month timeframe came from rape?

Texas had 50k-55k abortions a year prior to Dobbs, and we're expected to believe that half were from rape?


I don't buy this at all.

---

This is a Planned Parenthood study.
So, needless to say bunch of bull**** numbers meant to rile up the "educated" liberals who are too stupid to see the obvious.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/health/article/texas-rape-rates-data-18628287.php

Quote:

---

Though the CDC data is considered to be a closer representation of reality, it has its drawbacks, particularly with its timeliness and scope. The most recent data is from 2017 and is only available at the national level. Like the authors of the study, the Chronicle used this data to estimate state-level rape counts by considering the share of rapes reported to the FBI in each state. This approach assumes that even though the FBI data undercounts the true number of rapes, the share of reports coming from each state should be transferable to the total, nationwide number.

---

Translation: The CDC numbers are real, but we live in our own reality, so we made up numbers just like the planned parenthood heathens who created the study.

BTW, this is also the headline of the Austin American Statesman this morning, the media blitz to re-elect the pedophile is on.