coconutED said:
Bubblez said:
The airline industry needs the Airbus / Boeing duopoly to be competitively vibrant. It's up to Boeing to be able to keep up with the competition. Boeing is failing miserably in that regard.
The problem is that Airbus' production can't keep up with Boeing. They can take a bite of market share, but they are in no way a threat to Boeing, and Boeing knows that and acts accordingly.
Airbus is going to rate (monthly production) 73 I believe on the A320 next year, and Boeing is right now trying to ramp up past 35 or so 737 new builds per month (and still trying to deliver around a hundred from storage/production during the max grounding this year).
Airbus is also getting Euro subsidies on a replacement for the
A320 now of around $300 million a year, and the Chinese have filed with EASA for certification of their C919, production of which is expected to ramp up significantly in the next few years. Boeing's NB market share is no more than around 40 percent and likely do drop to 35 or so over the next 5 or so years due to both China and Airbus as well as travails with the max program, and a lack of a real competitor to the A321LR and XLR.
Boeing is trying to hang onto that 35 percent through at least 2035 with the max, hoping to launch a truss braced wing open rotor successor but the tech readiness levels aren't there for those yet. We can talk about the widebody market share as a rough split/more favorable to Boeing, but the cash cow that is the 737 is key to them;
Quote:
RBC analyst estimates ~380 737 deliveries in 2023, in line with the most recent 375-400 guidance and models 535 737 deliveries for 2024.
The analyst notes that the production rates from Boeing would suggest a number over 600, but they expect ~100 from inventory and stabilization at ~38/month for deliveries from production.
According to the analyst's cash flow analysis for 2023, the 737 MAX is expected to contribute an additional estimated $2.8 billion to the 2025 free cash flow. Following that, the 787 is expected to contribute approximately $1.7 billion. However, it's important to note that within the commercial portfolio, there are lingering uncertainties related to the 777X, particularly concerning the associated risks and the schedule for its entry into service.
The good news is that they now have approval to deliver them again to the CCP and that probably means some more orders for 737's from China this year (subject to the politics etc.)
