BBRex said:

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I know we're talking about housing prices, but for recent college grads you usually also have to factor in the rising price of a college education. I would imagine many if not most college graduates in the last 10 or so years have a large chunk of their take-home pay going to repay the costs of going to college. I would imagine most folks who graduated before, say, 1995 didn't have to factor in those costs after graduation. It's tough save for a house when you have rent, a car note and a significant student loan payment.

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Make better choices.

Agthatbuilds said:

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Big article on drudge yesterday about a great flight from Texas along with some other media about people wanting to leave Texas because of politics, cost and heat.

Add that to austin recently, for the first time ever, having more sellers than buyers and maybe the market will change faster than we anticipate

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I have two former clients that did exactly this this summer: moved back to Cali for the weather. We had literally just moved them in to a very nice very custom home. It kind of shocked me to be honest.

It was a bummer because these folks were the kind we want to stay; damn good people.

This time of year Texas shines. Temps in the 60s, pleasant to be outside.

We call it winter.

Saltwater Assassin said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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Big article on drudge yesterday about a great flight from Texas along with some other media about people wanting to leave Texas because of politics, cost and heat.

Add that to austin recently, for the first time ever, having more sellers than buyers and maybe the market will change faster than we anticipate

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I have two former clients that did exactly this this summer: moved back to Cali for the weather. We had literally just moved them in to a very nice very custom home. It kind of shocked me to be honest.

It was a bummer because these folks were the kind we want to stay; damn good people.

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But not tough enough for Texas summer.

https://instagr.am/p/C0W2HtSsWXI

Great audio!! Bruce Dickenson!

Home prices are expected to fall in these US cities next year: report | Austin, Texas, could see the steepest decline, with a 12.2% drop expected, according to a new report from https://t.co/ZSVyIULJwS. READ MORE: https://t.co/r5sJ0KeVpL

— KXAN News (@KXAN_News) December 4, 2023

It's happening

Agthatbuilds said:

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Home prices are expected to fall in these US cities next year: report | Austin, Texas, could see the steepest decline, with a 12.2% drop expected, according to a new report from https://t.co/ZSVyIULJwS. READ MORE: https://t.co/r5sJ0KeVpL

— KXAN News (@KXAN_News) December 4, 2023

It's happening

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Kalifornians leaving, selling at a loss.

Median house price in October decreased 17.6% to $409,300 from year ago.

Read more: https://t.co/wULjbmhhDb

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) December 12, 2023

Agthatbuilds said:

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Median house price in October decreased 17.6% to $409,300 from year ago.

Read more: https://t.co/wULjbmhhDb

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) December 12, 2023

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Dang, thats salty

techno-ag said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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Home prices are expected to fall in these US cities next year: report | Austin, Texas, could see the steepest decline, with a 12.2% drop expected, according to a new report from https://t.co/ZSVyIULJwS. READ MORE: https://t.co/r5sJ0KeVpL

— KXAN News (@KXAN_News) December 4, 2023

It's happening

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Kalifornians leaving, selling at a loss.

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From the article "Even though the market might stabilize next year, Realtor.com still expects challenges like low home sales, limited inventory, and the scarcity of move-in ready homes in desirable areas."

^If this is true, then why would prices decline by a significant amount?

What happens to prices when there is scarcity?

I would expect in most locales in Texas and other warmer markets that prices will remain steady.

As you indicative, scarcity results in higher prices not lower.

Because sometimes sellers have to sell even in a depressed market and there may be an even greater scarcity of buyers than sellers.

The decrease in home prices may be even worse than that if all of the incentives are deducted from the sales price. As an example, it is increasingly common for sellers, both individual sellers and builders, to offer a paydown on the mortgage rates at closing. I wonder if those incentives are included in the prices used in those statistical analyses?

Also, there's lots going on in the country in real estate other than just Texas.

techno-ag said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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Home prices are expected to fall in these US cities next year: report | Austin, Texas, could see the steepest decline, with a 12.2% drop expected, according to a new report from https://t.co/ZSVyIULJwS. READ MORE: https://t.co/r5sJ0KeVpL

— KXAN News (@KXAN_News) December 4, 2023

It's happening

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Kalifornians leaving, selling at a loss.

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Except falling prices are not a relief when interest rates eat up all the savings and then some

According to that graph, the 1970s was where you should find real offense.

I'm guessing property taxes will be reduced by at least the average of the decrease in all areas?

fka ftc said:

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I would expect in most locales in Texas and other warmer markets that prices will remain steady.

As you indicative, scarcity results in higher prices not lower.

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Tab report today

Quote:

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Active home listings and pending listings were also up across the metro, increasing by 5.2% and 12% respectively. Along with more sales and listings, median home prices dipped by 7.5% to $435,000.

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Agthatbuilds said:

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fka ftc said:

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I would expect in most locales in Texas and other warmer markets that prices will remain steady.

As you indicative, scarcity results in higher prices not lower.

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Tab report today

Quote:

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Active home listings and pending listings were also up across the metro, increasing by 5.2% and 12% respectively. Along with more sales and listings, median home prices dipped by 7.5% to $435,000.

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They have that by segment? Also, some of that may be seasonal shifts.

Shark Tank dude was just on FNC thinking Fed may still raise rates with inflation still stubborn.

I don't claim to be an expert, but I do not prices dipping significantly.

I tend to believe Moody's & JBurns are reliable, but nobody knows...also f this thread.

From Moody's analytics:

For the foreseeable future, the market will be driven by low inventory and pent-up demand.


Housing Market Forecast 2024 and 2025


In terms of inventory and first-time buyer purchases, the Zillow home price expectations survey found that the housing market is likely to return to pre-pandemic levels by 2024. In the last two years, home values have grown by 32 percent as a result of a shrinking supply of homes. A major contributing factor has been the diminishing supply of properties.
It is expected that housing inventory will reach pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2024, according to the majority of panel members.
It is expected that first-time buyers will remain below 2019 levels until 2024.
A majority of respondents predicted that prices will grow by 46.5 percent between now and 2026, while the most conservative group predicted only 10.3 percent growth.
According to the average response, there will be a total increase of 26.8% by the end of 2026, or a compound annual growth rate of 4.9 percent.


The pandemic caused record-breaking price increases and rent increases, making saving for down payments difficult. In 2021, the percentage of first-time home buyers fell from 45 percent in 2019 to 37 percent, according to a Zillow survey. In the next two years, first-time buyers will regain their pre-pandemic market share, with 26 percent predicting 2024 and 25 percent predicting 2025.



Millennials, the largest generation in American history who will be well into their prime home-buying years far before 2030, predict first-time buyers will not reach 45% until after 2030. U.S. buyers are on average 43 years old, but the median (43 years old) is higher (45 years old). One in five buyers (17%) is in their twenties or younger, while a quarter (23%) is in their sixties or older. In other words, the age distribution of buyers in the U.S. represents a sort of middle ground.



The average tenured homeowner (one who hasn't moved in a year) is typically younger, while the average renter is older. Household incomes of buyers tend to be higher than those of the general U.S. population. Median household income among buyers is approximately $86,000, compared to $65,700 for the overall national median (2019).



From now until the end of 2026, respondents who were most optimistic predicted a 46.1 percent increase in prices, while those who were most conservative predicted a 9.3 percent increase. It is expected that the total increase by 2026 will be 26.4 percent.

Quote:

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In Travis County, year over year:
Sales were down 7.7% with 957 homes sold.
The median home price was down 1.2% to $524,500.
Active home listings were up 9.6% with 4,798 listings.
Pending sales were down 0.3% with 909 pending.
In Williamson County, year over year:
Sales were up 11.2% with 844 homes sold.
The median home price was down 7.1% to $424,990.
Active home listings were down 12.6% with 2,786 listings.
Pending sales were up 14.1% with 794 pending.

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I'm sure some of it is seasonal. 7% does seem like a large number

When interest rates had a 2 handle, a lot of 7 figure luxury homes were purchased. Don't need it, but why the heck not. Figure the average/median of normal home sales plus those.

With a 6 or 7 handle, that slows down those purchases. What's left is need houses. Figure the average/median of those. I'm surprised it's not more of a drop honestly.

Lies, dang lies, & statistics.

My intuition was a bit of that as well but I don't have the numbers to back it up.

+5% month to month changes happen seasonally. October 2023 median home price still higher than October 2022. whereas per Zillow my particular house is down about 6% year over year.

ac04 said:

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right around 1971 in fact. that sure is odd.

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Some of us see what you did there

46% increase in home prices by 2026? Got damn.

Edit: partial reality check...if this is remotely based on Zillows pricing algorithm you can shave about half that off.

YouBet said:

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46% increase in home prices by 2026? Got damn.

Edit: partial reality check...if this is remotely based on Zillows pricing algorithm you can shave about half that off.

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Zillows proce algorithm uses prior sales, in conjunction with nearby sales, while filtering for age/size criteria, and a few other variables. It cannot account for updating.

Tbh if interest rates dip a bit more closer to 6% I could see a decline taking place, but right now there's just low inventory everywhere where I am, which will keep prices stable at minimum....I have a hard time believing double digit percent increases after the last few years...but who knows.

California's housing market is collapsing, per Newsweek.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) December 18, 2023

The actual Newsweek article doesn't really back up (their own) headline, imho:

Quote:

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The Golden State was affected by the same price correction that hit the United States housing market between late summer 2022 and spring 2023, though prices have slightly rebounded since then, as inventory remains low.

According to the California Association of Realtors (CAR), the median sale price of an existing single-family home in the state was $840,360 in Octoberdown from $843,360 in September but up 5.3 percent compared to a year before.

In the same month, existing home sales rose by a modest 0.3 percent, though the number was 11.9 percent lower than in October 2022 as sales remained hindered by high mortgage rates.

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San Francisco is an s-hole of course, but I haven't noticed any metrics showing a 'collapse' by any means, statewide.

Nevermimd

The likelihood of a "crash" is small


https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/is-the-housing-market-about-to-crash/

Quote:

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No. There are still more buyers than sellers, and that means a meaningful price decline can't happen: "There's just generally not enough supply," says Mark Fleming, chief economist at title insurer First American Financial Corporation. "There are more people than housing inventory. It's Econ 101."

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Austin, Texas, was the only city that became more affordable in 2023, per Redfin.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) December 18, 2023

California is facing monumental challenges in regards to housing due to a whole host of reasons - mainly driven by absurd labor compensation requirements, environmental hurdles, electrical grid and other infrastructure mismanagement, etc.

I would predict that Cali may be headed to a correction in both housing and politics within the next 5 to 10 years.

The builder lobbyists were with Powell and friends a couple of weeks ago and made the not so hard sell that rate cuts will lighten the rhetoric on housing affordability. A win for Biden in an election year and a win for builders by juicing starts and closings.

As the clean up on the article indicates, demand continues to outpace supply. With millions of new people, that is not changing anytime soon.

Biden looking to try and open up the market with tax credits?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/biden-wants-to-give-500000-americans-money-to-buy-homes/ar-AA1laqNs

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The act will introduce a new federal tax credit to help fund "the development and renovation of 1-4 family housing in distressed urban, suburban, and rural neighborhoods," according to a draft of the bill.

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Quote:

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The White House pointed out that it was trying to reduce costs for first-time buyers through the Federal Housing Administration program. The effort, it said, helped reduce mortgage insurance premiums by 0.3 percent.

"This will mean savings of around $1,200 per year for a homebuyer buying a median home," Brainard said.

Biden has proposed, through his budget a program, down payment assistance for first-time home buyers that the White House said will uplift first-generation homeowners.

"[The program could] help make homeownership a reality for families who do not have the advantage of previous generational wealth building from homeownership. Passing this legislation could begin to close the stubborn racial gap in homeownership," Brainard said

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Quote:

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Brainard said that the administration has helped 100,000 low-income households guarantee their rent at 30 percent of their incomes.

"The president's budget proposes expanding rental assistance to more than 200,000 additional households, including a first-of-its kind rental assistance guarantee for low-income veterans and former foster youth," she added.

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Is this another for effoet to open up the market more to sub prime lendees?

Agthatbuilds said:

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Biden looking to try and open up the market with tax credits?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/biden-wants-to-give-500000-americans-money-to-buy-homes/ar-AA1laqNs

Quote:

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The act will introduce a new federal tax credit to help fund "the development and renovation of 1-4 family housing in distressed urban, suburban, and rural neighborhoods," according to a draft of the bill.

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Quote:

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The White House pointed out that it was trying to reduce costs for first-time buyers through the Federal Housing Administration program. The effort, it said, helped reduce mortgage insurance premiums by 0.3 percent.

"This will mean savings of around $1,200 per year for a homebuyer buying a median home," Brainard said.

Biden has proposed, through his budget a program, down payment assistance for first-time home buyers that the White House said will uplift first-generation homeowners.

"[The program could] help make homeownership a reality for families who do not have the advantage of previous generational wealth building from homeownership. Passing this legislation could begin to close the stubborn racial gap in homeownership," Brainard said

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Quote:

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Brainard said that the administration has helped 100,000 low-income households guarantee their rent at 30 percent of their incomes.

"The president's budget proposes expanding rental assistance to more than 200,000 additional households, including a first-of-its kind rental assistance guarantee for low-income veterans and former foster youth," she added.

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Is this another for effoet to open up the market more to sub prime lendees?

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Sounds more like risk free money given banks and builders to cater to otherwise unqualified homebuyers. This doesn't address the supply problem or help the middle class in any way. It just skews the builders to make inventory that isn't in demand since the government is guaranteeing they'll be paid.

bmks270 said:

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Sounds more like risk free money given banks and builders to cater to otherwise unqualified homebuyers. This doesn't address the supply problem or help the middle class in any way. It just skews the builders to make inventory that isn't in demand since the government is guaranteeing they'll be paid.

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Homebuilders have a very well compensated and well coordinated lobbying effort. Lots and lots and lots of campaign money can be spread around for desired results.