Home price index reaches all time high

61,632 Views | 705 Replies | Last: 10 days ago by MemphisAg1
Fenrir
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Definitely Not A Cop said:

Yes, I would be interested to see if even just the price of land per acre has outpaced wages.
Quick search doesn't pull anything up that I found to support one way or the other but I would be shocked if it hasn't outpaced wages. Every year there is more competition for the same amount of land.
NoahAg
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Squadron7 said:

People's idea of a starter home changed a lot since I was a kid.
I think just the concept of a "starter" home is relatively new. Sure, some % of people have always moved up into bigger, more expensive homes. But a few decades ago a lot more people bought homes believing it would be their forever home.

I'm sure a lot of your grandparents were like mine. They built a ~1,500 SF home in the early 50s, raised 3 kids, and stayed there 50 years. Another factor is people are a lot more transient now, and change jobs more frequently.
Jabin
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Quote:

the thing is builders have to build bigger more expensive houses in order to actually make a profit. land and development is expensive. materials and labor are expensive. it's damned hard to build the 1500 sq ft houses of the past.
Correct. But my point is that comparing the average cost of a house in 1980 to today is comparing VW bugs to Porsches.
annie88
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AG
Logos Stick said:



https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/home-prices-set-record-in-july-140213592.html




Enjoy your high priced home at 8% interest. We've obviously got inflation well under control.
Bought my first home in 1996, sold first, bought second in 2006 and sold second, bought third in 2020.

Got lucky for the most part. I honestly can't remember exactly, but do think the first one was on about 7.5% but it was the mid-nineties.

Got 3.3% on the last one, and I think about 4.5 - 5% on the second, but again can't remember exactly. Do remember the prices of the homes, though. Sold both for quite a bit more too.
Currently a happy listless vessel and deplorable. #FJB TRUMP 2024.
crowman2010
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fka ftc said:

crowman2010 said:

techno-ag said:

What did we ever do back when the interest rates were near 18%?

Oh yeah, I remember. We saved up for 20% down, didn't buy more than we could afford, and refinanced when rates went down.

Yeah, this is an awful take. 20% down on a home back in the 80's was what, 15-20k? That same house is now selling for $500k, making the 20% down 100k and wages have not kept pace.
In 2005 at the age of 27 I put $50k down on a $203k house. My wife did not contribute but if we had been DINKs we could have put $100k down.

Neither one of us drove new cars every 3 years, had the latest phones, shopped at Old Navy or the sales at Dillards, dined in almost exclusively and had cheap furniture.


Ok?
CS78
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.
techno-ag
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CrackerJackAg said:

jja79 said:

Sims said:

techno-ag said:

What did we ever do back when the interest rates were near 18%?

Oh yeah, I remember. We saved up for 20% down (about 12k for the average house costing app. $61k), didn't buy more than we could afford, and refinanced when rates went down.
Edited for historical context.

My A&M degree got me a $950/month job at a bank during that time so saving $12K was not an easy thing to do.


Sounds like you sort of answered your own question.

The median household income in 1980 in the state of Texas was about 40% of what it is today. Roughly 2.5x today.

Avg. house in grandpas day was 61k.

Times 2.5 = $160k

Todays Median - $391k

I know old people have dried up crusty brains but good gracious grandpa the internet is not that hard.
LOL. Save up for what you want and minimize debt. Such an old fashioned concept these days.
Buy a man eat fish, he day, teach fish man, to a lifetime.

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tysker
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AG
fka ftc said:

Squadron7 said:

People's idea of a starter home changed a lot since I was a kid.
Lots of starter homes can be found here:
https://mobilehomehq.com/properties/

To your point, people are unwilling to accept the fact that when you are starting out, choices have to be made.

And what jobs opportunities are there that can provide the experience and training necessary for upward career mobility especially in this new technology driven market, in places like Tyler, Granbury, and Grandview? The kids are making choices for location, experience, networking and career opportunities that frankly don't exist in those cities.
MondayMorningQB
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techno-ag said:

What did we ever do back when the interest rates were near 18%?

Oh yeah, I remember. We saved up for 20% down, didn't buy more than we could afford, and refinanced when rates went down.


Yeah! When I was young I got my house from a Cracker Jacks box, just had to save a nickel from my paper route..



You're such an economic ostrich. All 76 of you.
Deputy Travis Junior
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Amazing how many people can't read a simple graph.

"Just do what I did," said the idiot as he ignored that the value on the Y axis doubled or tripled (depends on the age of the idiot)
Deputy Travis Junior
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My experience:
Bought a house within the last 6 months. Depending on the site you look at, my city is 2-8% more expensive than the national average. So a little above average but nothing extravagant.
Ended up in the far suburbs because it was cheaper. Paid $550k for a 2200 SF house that needed $30k of work. It sold for $320k in 2017 and $200k in 2012. Every single house we looked at had a similar pricing pattern over the last decade. We're in our mid/late 30s so it isn't starter trim level, but I promise not a single person on this board would walk into my more than half a million dollar house and think "wow this is amazing!" It's a totally ho-hum house. (Full disclosure : the Backyard is great, but even without that it's still $475-500k.)

My mortgage is ~6% and we put down 25% so our mortgage is only ~$2600 a month. Add in insurance, utilities, HOA, and maintenance and it's probably $3500 a month. That's before groceries, gas, Healthcare, blah blah.

My car is getting up there and miles and the family is growing, so I also looked at SUVs the other day. A 4 year old Tahoe with ~75-100k miles on it (so getting close to the range where **** often starts to break) is high 20s to low 30s.

Meanwhile, the median household income in the USA is about $75k (and half the households are worse than this).

Households with 2 kids making 75k can't afford cars and they can't afford housing in this world. I don't give a **** that you saved up 20% 15 years ago. That means nothing. Back then my 550k house was only 200k and you only had to put down 40k instead of 110k.

If you aren't looking at these stats and wondering how the average Joe is making it you've got your head up your ace. You can't tell a guy making 75k and supporting a family to just cut his daily Starbucks and he'll soon have enough saved to be able to afford a $400k house and a $30k used car
Agthatbuilds
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Deputy Travis Junior said:

My experience:
Bought a house within the last 6 months. Depending on the site you look at, my city is 2-8% more expensive than the national average. So a little above average but nothing extravagant.
Ended up in the far suburbs because it was cheaper. Paid $550k for a 2200 SF house that needed $30k of work. It sold for $320k in 2017 and $200k in 2012. Every single house we looked at had a similar pricing pattern over the last decade. We're in our mid/late 30s so it isn't starter trim level, but I promise not a single person on this board would walk into my more than half a million dollar house and think "wow this is amazing!" It's a totally ho-hum house. (Full disclosure : the Backyard is great, but still. Without that it's still $475-500k.)

My mortgage is ~6% and we put down 25% so our mortgage is only ~$2600 a month. Add in insurance, utilities, HOA, and maintenance and it's probably $3500 a month. That's before groceries, gas, Healthcare, blah blah.

My car is getting up there and miles and the family is growing, so I also looked at SUVs the other day. A 4 year old Tahoe with ~75-100k miles on it (so getting close to the range where **** often starts to break) is high 20s to low 30s.

Meanwhile, the median household income in the USA is about $75k (and half the households are worse than this).

Households with 2 kids making 75k can't afford cars and they can't afford housing in this world. I don't give a **** that you saved up 20% 15 years ago. That means nothing. Back then my 550k house was only 200k and you only had to put down 40k instead of 110k.

If you aren't looking at these stats and wondering how the average Joe is making it you've got your head up your ace.


CrackerJackAg
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AG
techno-ag said:

CrackerJackAg said:

jja79 said:

Sims said:

techno-ag said:

What did we ever do back when the interest rates were near 18%?

Oh yeah, I remember. We saved up for 20% down (about 12k for the average house costing app. $61k), didn't buy more than we could afford, and refinanced when rates went down.
Edited for historical context.

My A&M degree got me a $950/month job at a bank during that time so saving $12K was not an easy thing to do.


Sounds like you sort of answered your own question.

The median household income in 1980 in the state of Texas was about 40% of what it is today. Roughly 2.5x today.

Avg. house in grandpas day was 61k.

Times 2.5 = $160k

Todays Median - $391k

I know old people have dried up crusty brains but good gracious grandpa the internet is not that hard.
LOL. Save up for what you want and minimize debt. Such an old fashioned concept these days.


That's what you got out of that. Damn…. People are ****ing amazing.
TheMasterplan
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Good luck getting an answer on this one.
"Just live in a **** box with high crime, bad schools and no economic opportunity that's why we did you dumb Millenial"

And again to those that say, "just save." Easy to save when the interest rate is super high.

It was better to put as much in the market when Int. Rates were low as the market was low as well.

Luckily I have saved so I can withstand the current int. rate environment but so many people have done the math here on home prices vs. salary.
SockStilkings
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Deputy Travis Junior said:

My experience:
Bought a house within the last 6 months. Depending on the site you look at, my city is 2-8% more expensive than the national average. So a little above average but nothing extravagant.
Ended up in the far suburbs because it was cheaper. Paid $550k for a 2200 SF house that needed $30k of work. It sold for $320k in 2017 and $200k in 2012. Every single house we looked at had a similar pricing pattern over the last decade. We're in our mid/late 30s so it isn't starter trim level, but I promise not a single person on this board would walk into my more than half a million dollar house and think "wow this is amazing!" It's a totally ho-hum house. (Full disclosure : the Backyard is great, but even without that it's still $475-500k.)

My mortgage is ~6% and we put down 25% so our mortgage is only ~$2600 a month. Add in insurance, utilities, HOA, and maintenance and it's probably $3500 a month. That's before groceries, gas, Healthcare, blah blah.

My car is getting up there and miles and the family is growing, so I also looked at SUVs the other day. A 4 year old Tahoe with ~75-100k miles on it (so getting close to the range where **** often starts to break) is high 20s to low 30s.

Meanwhile, the median household income in the USA is about $75k (and half the households are worse than this).

Households with 2 kids making 75k can't afford cars and they can't afford housing in this world. I don't give a **** that you saved up 20% 15 years ago. That means nothing. Back then my 550k house was only 200k and you only had to put down 40k instead of 110k.

If you aren't looking at these stats and wondering how the average Joe is making it you've got your head up your ace. You can't tell a guy making 75k and supporting a family to just cut his daily Starbucks and he'll soon have enough saved to be able to afford a $400k house and a $30k used car
You talked about what you chose to buy at $550k then used the median household income of $75k for comparison?

I would be surprised outside of maybe you picking up Chick-fil-a that you encounter many folks in your life making median household wages or less. In almost all locales, a family of 4 bringing in $75k qualifies for housing assistance and you use that to show they cannot afford the mortgage on a $550k house.

I will agree housing is incredibly more expensive. But the answer is not to increase wages. The answer is to ease demand. One of the ways to ease demand is for folks to get used to lower level homes in less desirable areas until they can get their feet under than to move up.
SockStilkings
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TheMasterplan said:

Good luck getting an answer on this one.
"Just live in a **** box with high crime, bad schools and no economic opportunity that's why we did you dumb Millenial"

-- I grew up on a dead-end street between two trailer parks in a 1800sf home and my dad has his MS in Chemistry from A&M and worked as a chemist for one of the plants and my mom taught school. We kept our bikes locked in the garage or chained up. Our schools were average to below average. Somehow we managed to eek out an existence where mine and my brother's college was paid for and my mom has lived off my dad's savings for the last 23 years.

And again to those that say, "just save." Easy to save when the interest rate is super high.

-- A $500k CD with a bank is paying over 5%; super high compared to recent history but that amount will net you about $25k in annual interest. Rates paid on deposits are not moving the needle in home affordability in any meaningful way.

It was better to put as much in the market when Int. Rates were low as the market was low as well.

-- Timing the market is a fool's errand.

Luckily I have saved so I can withstand the current int. rate environment but so many people have done the math here on home prices vs. salary.
Housing affordability is indeed an issue. But again, a major contributor is buyer demand / expectation (entitlement).
Daddy
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tk111 said:

It's really terrible. I know a number of young couples just a few years removed from college that have been very successful and are still absolutely crushed at their prospects of getting a home due to the overwhelming double-whammy that is prices and interest rates.


They'll be okay.
It's not a right to buy a 500k house And the poor 55 year olds that the cabal wants to die will be losing their home

2024
The Return of the Fightin' Texas Aggies
Daddy
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Muktheduck said:

techno-ag said:

What did we ever do back when the interest rates were near 18%?

Oh yeah, I remember. We saved up for 20% down, didn't buy more than we could afford, and refinanced when rates went down.


We'd love to do that. You had an attractive job market and your grocery bills didn't double every few years from inflation.

There's no saving up for a down payment right now. Prices are increasing faster than wages



Sure they are
Biden. And the cabal pulling strings wants this to happen.

But again, buying a house is a privilege not a right. And everyone I know can save more. We don't need 1500$ phones and cell data and 50k cars and going out to eat.

Also might have to buy a house on other side of the tracks.

2024
The Return of the Fightin' Texas Aggies
Agthatbuilds
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techno-ag
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"Things are terrible! Anybody who saved and worked hard in the past is an idiot because things are different now!"

"By the way, here's how I got my house."

TexAgs never ceases to amuse.
Buy a man eat fish, he day, teach fish man, to a lifetime.

- Joe Biden

I think that, to be very honest with you, I do believe that we should have rightly believed, but we certainly believe that certain issues are just settled.

- Kamala Harris
Deputy Travis Junior
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I think you're missing my point, which is that a not-that-large, not-that-nice house 30 miles outside an average-ish cost of living city that was $200k a decade ago is now well over half a million and costs $3500+/month even with 25% down (and I got a 6% rate which is a pipe dream today).

Even if you downgrade the size to 1500 SF and drop the trim level you're still looking at $400k, which is completely unaffordable for the median family with a couple of kids.

Not calling for government programs as I think they'll screw things up even more, but the olds ranting about what they did when houses cost 25% and saying that younguns need to buckle down and copy their blueprint are data illiterate
Deputy Travis Junior
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techno-ag said:

"Things are terrible! Anybody who saved and worked hard in the past is an idiot because things are different now!"



Nobody has said that. They're merely commenting that things have gotten a lot harder for the average Joe recently.
SockStilkings
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Deputy Travis Junior said:

I think you're missing my point, which is that a not-that-large, not-that-nice house 30 miles outside an average-ish cost of living city that was $200k a decade ago is now well over half a million and costs $3500+/month even with 25% down (and I got a 6% rate which is a pipe dream today).

Even if you downgrade the size to 1500 SF and drop the trim level you're still looking at $400k, which is completely unaffordable for the median family with a couple of kids.

Not calling for government programs as I think they'll screw things up even more, but the olds ranting about what they did when houses cost 25% and saying that younguns need to buckle down and copy their blueprint are data illiterate
No, I get you point quite well.

I am not denying that pound for pound you get less for your money. But these things tend to work in cycles.

Indeed there has been a consistent drive from rural to cities over the decades. But the same folks touting the freedom to WFH still want to cling to city / urban life and the costs associated with it.

I think the housing affordability "crisis" is not a crisis at all and could use a healthy dose of resetting expectations.

There are a lot of assumptions made by younger folk about how "easy" others had it.
Stat Monitor Repairman
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SockStilkings
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Never a big fan of Tupac, but I play my mom one of his songs every Mother's Day. She sho is appreciated, my dear Momma.
Krazykat
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Logos Stick said:



https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/home-prices-set-record-in-july-140213592.html




Enjoy your high priced home at 8% interest. We've obviously got inflation well under control.


When my in-laws bought their house in the 70's, interest rates were 12%.
Ol Army 09
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fka ftc said:

ABatt18 said:

If you add a 0 to both of those numbers, it's a bit closer to what graduates face today. Except most students coming out of college nowadays may take home about $4000 a month rather than $9500.

It is significantly harder for recent college grads to save nowadays than it has been before. Also, there are very, very few starter homes available to buy with reasonable commutes.
Drive a used car. Live in a dump apartment. Have a used iPhone X not iPhone 15 Pro Max with matching Ultra 2 watch. Brew your coffee at home. Eat ramen. Vacation on surfside beach sleeping in a tent.

I graduated A&M in 2000 and went to work in Big 4/5 accounting. And lived frugally in order to save. And spent an hour each way commuting to that dump apartment.

Next.


My wife and I are in our mid thirties and have done literally everything you suggest for 11 years while saving like crazy. We now have enough saved for a down payment of 25 to 35% down payment on a low to mid 300s type house. Since covid shutdowns caused the price of houses to skyrocket. We have never looked for more that a three, maybe four depending on price, bedroom house. Now, despite both having good professional jobs, we have gone from looking at 1800 to 1900 square foot houses to much older 1300-1700 square foot houses because of the prices. Now tell me this market is not broken!
YouBet
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I graduated from A&M in 1996. Got married in 1999. I didn't buy my first house until 2007. That is eleven years after graduation for the non-mathologists. During that eleven years, I lived in some low rent apartments in Longview, an ok duplex in White Oak, and several different rentals in Dallas. Our first rental in Dallas (year 2000) was a duplex that had no dishwasher or washing machine/dryer. We cleaned our clothes at a local laundromat...in urban Dallas. Fun.

We couldn't afford much and definitely not a house regardless of urban or suburbs. So we scraped by and lived on the cheap for years. First house in 2007 was a $400k house and our mortgage rate was 5% out the gate and ended up at 7% because we were on a custom loan. So about what rates are now.

I bring this up to share that this current time, while tough for some of you and I empathize, is not as unusual as you think it is. Many of us have lived through similar times. Again, I empathize with you but life isn't fair. It will throw you a curveball and there isn't **** you can do about it but deal with it. It's fine to get mad about it and ***** about it for a little while but then you gotta figure it out and move on.

And we all are about to get hit with some curveballs the way things are going so buckle up.
Deputy Travis Junior
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SockStilkings said:


I think the housing affordability "crisis" is not a crisis at all and could use a healthy dose of resetting expectations.

There are a lot of assumptions made by younger folk about how "easy" others had it.


In 2000 and 2010, the median household incomes were $42k and $50k respectively. Today it's 75k (increases of 78% and 50%).

Eyeballing the OP's graphic here, but in 2000 and 2010 the housing indexes were about 100 and 150. Today it's at 310 (increase of 210% and 107%).

Your opinion is not based in reality.
aggrad02
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hph6203 said:

techno-ag said:

What did we ever do back when the interest rates were near 18%?

Oh yeah, I remember. We saved up for 20% down, didn't buy more than we could afford, and refinanced when rates went down.
You have to save 2.5x as long to purchase a home that costs 3x as much monthly. Interest rates are a portion of the equation, but they matter WAY less than price relative to income. Even at 0% interest rates it's more expensive/difficult to buy a home than it was in the early 80's.

1980
Median House Price: 47,200
Median Household Income: 21,000
20% Down: 9,440
Interest Rate: 17%
Tax: 864/yr (72.00/mo)
HOI: 250/yr (20.80/mo)
P&I: 539.00
Total Payment: 631.80
Down payment percent gross income: 45%
Total payment percent of gross income: 16%

2023
Median House Price: 416,000
Median Household Income: 81,500
20% Down: 83,200
Interest Rate: 7.5%
Tax: 7615 (634.59/mo)
Insurance: 2204 (183.67/mo)
P&I: 2327.00
Total Payment: 3145.26
Down payment percent gross income: 102%
Total payment percent of gross income: 46.3%



Not sure if anyone pointed it out but your 1980's math is off.

For 1980, Total payment percent of gross income should be 36.1% instead of 16%. (631.80*12/21,000 = 36.1%)
richardag
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fka ftc said:

Definitely Not A Cop said:





Thanks. Some people's inability to admit that economics were more favorable to them in the past is strange. And that's not to absolve the idiocy towards our current economic policies that this generation is perpetuating. I'm sure the millenials will be gaslighting the 30 year olds the same way in 30 years.
How about there be some honesty in what that average home bought you in 1980 vs 2023 and then there can be a discussion. Until then, its a bunch of hooey as most millenials wouldn't let their cats live in what the average home was in 1980.
My first home was 1400 sq ft in Oak Cliff. $35,000 with $308 monthly mortgage payment. Needed a lot of renovation. New electric, replace floor in back bedroom due to termite damage, new kitchen, replace floor furnaces with central heat/air, sheet rock over shiplap interior of walls/ceilings of entire house, new garage to replace falling over detached garage.
Not the nicest neighborhood to live in, but have to start somewhere. Sold after 11 years used the sweat equity to buy a house in Arlington when our children became older and we took them out of private school. Schools in Oak Cliff were not very good.
Among the latter, under pretence of governing they have divided their nations into two classes, wolves and sheep.”
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
richardag
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Definitely Not A Cop said:

Down payment percent gross income: 45%
Total payment percent of gross income: 16%
Average house size: 1800 sqft
2023
Down payment percent gross income: 102%
Total payment percent of gross income: 46.3%
Average house size: 2500 sqft

So the house size has increased 40%, while the down payment compared to income is more than twice the amount. Economics were favorable in the 80's.
Agreed, but what is the answer? My guess is reduced the federal government, dramatically.
Among the latter, under pretence of governing they have divided their nations into two classes, wolves and sheep.”
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
rathAG05
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JobSecurity said:

not really an "inflation" problem, it's a supply and demand problem. Unfortunately with no obvious solution.

If the fed wasn't focused on a soft landing there might be hope, but I don't see this dropping outside of a recession


Nobody wants to hear your rational thought….
tysker
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Quote:

We couldn't afford much and definitely not a house regardless of urban or suburbs. So we scraped by and lived on the cheap for years. First house in 2007 was a $400k house and our mortgage rate was 5% out the gate and ended up at 7% because we were on a custom loan. So about what rates are now.
What would that house been worth say in 2010 had there not been a housing bailout? Would you have been able to refi down if the value dropped to $335k?

It's hard to remember we Gen Xers also got a nice bailout (along with the Boomers) with a decade-plus of ZIRP which boosted the prices of our financial assets and real estate.
SockStilkings
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rathAG05 said:

JobSecurity said:

not really an "inflation" problem, it's a supply and demand problem. Unfortunately with no obvious solution.

If the fed wasn't focused on a soft landing there might be hope, but I don't see this dropping outside of a recession


Nobody wants to hear your rational thought….
Another thing to look at would be lending standards as well. You can blame banks, builders, consumers, the gubmit, etc that have all contributed to the housing affordability "problem". But I have not seen the lax lending standards particularly in the mid oughts but still not entirely addressed these days.

Lending standards and more "exotic" loans allowed for more people to afford more leading to more demand and constricted supply.

Its easy to blame wages and look at % of income spent on housing, but reality still remains that many are CHOOSING to max out their housing costs.

But as you say, no one wants rationale thinking and hard truth on this thread.
 
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