We lucked out and sold our home about a month ago above list. We went in expecting we would have to cut price but were pleasantly surprised.

What's interesting is that nothing that went on the market before us or after us in our comp range has moved at all. We seem to have been the sole outlier to sell in the past few months.

Logos Stick said:

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jja79 said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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I build many very expensive homes for boomers.

Just a random anecdote I'll add

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I have taken quite a few applications for construction loans from boomers for what I consider very expensive houses. I'm 66 so I'm one of them and when I look at their finances it scares me to death. Not all of them but a lot of them.

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So a lot of them have very poor balance sheets yet they are getting loans to build massive homes?!

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Didn't say that. If they qualify they qualify. Why someone retirement age would want to take on a $1MM plus mortgage isn't something I can get my head around.

jja79 said:

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Logos Stick said:

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jja79 said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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I build many very expensive homes for boomers.

Just a random anecdote I'll add

---

I have taken quite a few applications for construction loans from boomers for what I consider very expensive houses. I'm 66 so I'm one of them and when I look at their finances it scares me to death. Not all of them but a lot of them.

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So a lot of them have very poor balance sheets yet they are getting loans to build massive homes?!

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Didn't say that. If they qualify they qualify. Why someone retirement age would want to take on a $1MM plus mortgage isn't something I can get my head around.

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While not $1M, my 80 yr old parents bought some land and are going to build a home. It's driving my brother and I crazy because they have zero business doing this. This will be the 4th home they've built in my lifetime. It's not a financial hardship but a physical one. My mom can't hear or see and my dad can move around just enough to keep them out of a home. It's just a dumb decision and I don't think we are going to be able to talk them out of it.

BREAKING: The share of Americans who are mortgage-free is at an all-time high, per Bloomberg.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) November 23, 2023

This is interesting. To me, it means less homes coming on the market and will counter any major dip in the market.

Interesting. However, lots of higher end homes are going for cash now with the interest rates.

Would wonder if this data includes BTR houses. Similarly, I would assume this does include all cash buyers that are pooling resources to buy homes for members in their "community".

Regarding that last part, I am speaking of the uptick in sales of spec houses to certain groups (e.g. Indians, but others do this as well) where they buy a house and rent to younger generation to help them get established.

As you have mentioned before, in most parts of Texas I would not be sitting around waiting on any substantial price drop on existing and new inventory.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/11/case-shiller-national-house-price-index.html?m=1

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in September; New all-time High




No relief in sight it seems. Mortgage rates through the roof and yet the index continues to rise

techno-ag said:

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What did we ever do back when the interest rates were near 18%?

Oh yeah, I remember. We saved up for 20% down, didn't buy more than we could afford, and refinanced when rates went down.

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Gtfo with this horse***** The average price of a home has skyrocketed since then and wages have not. Sorry boomer, but you can't just blame this on young people being irresponsible

LOL. Look who just started reading the thread.

Mort Rainey said:

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techno-ag said:

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What did we ever do back when the interest rates were near 18%?

Oh yeah, I remember. We saved up for 20% down, didn't buy more than we could afford, and refinanced when rates went down.

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Gtfo with this horse***** The average price of a home has skyrocketed since then and wages have not. Sorry boomer, but you can't just blame this on young people being irresponsible

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We need to skyrocket wages and that will solve the problems!

Meanwhile, those younger generations will continue to buy European luxury cars, new iPhones and eat out at the hottest new place drinking $25 ranch waters.

jja79 said:

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Logos Stick said:

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jja79 said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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I build many very expensive homes for boomers.

Just a random anecdote I'll add

---

I have taken quite a few applications for construction loans from boomers for what I consider very expensive houses. I'm 66 so I'm one of them and when I look at their finances it scares me to death. Not all of them but a lot of them.

---

So a lot of them have very poor balance sheets yet they are getting loans to build massive homes?!

---

Didn't say that. If they qualify they qualify. Why someone retirement age would want to take on a $1MM plus mortgage isn't something I can get my head around.

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good points raised here

I am planning early retirement at age 56 and living in florida part of the year

but my buddy who made a fortune in real estate says NOT to buy but just to rent

and instead use the money for S&P funds (which I do already)

Logos Stick said:

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https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/11/case-shiller-national-house-price-index.html?m=1

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in September; New all-time High




No relief in sight it seems. Mortgage rates through the roof and yet the index continues to rise

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They're still up, up, and away over here. A place around the corner about 2,200 sq ft just sold for somewhere in the low 800s last month and the new owners are already pulling out tile and whatnot.

I know we're talking about housing prices, but for recent college grads you usually also have to factor in the rising price of a college education. I would imagine many if not most college graduates in the last 10 or so years have a large chunk of their take-home pay going to repay the costs of going to college. I would imagine most folks who graduated before, say, 1995 didn't have to factor in those costs after graduation. It's tough save for a house when you have rent, a car note and a significant student loan payment.

BBRex said:

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I know we're talking about housing prices, but for recent college grads you usually also have to factor in the rising price of a college education. I would imagine many if not most college graduates in the last 10 or so years have a large chunk of their take-home pay going to repay the costs of going to college. I would imagine most folks who graduated before, say, 1995 didn't have to factor in those costs after graduation. It's tough save for a house when you have rent, a car note and a significant student loan payment.

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Sounds like more kids should have learned a technical trade or taken an online coding class.

I get your point, but again getting a college degree was a consumer choice by that individual.

LOL, this is in WSJ today:

Housing Costs Are So High That Divorced Couples Are Still Living Together



Paywall
https://wsj-article-webview-generator-prod.sc.onservo.com/webview/WP-WSJ-0001371498?wsj_native_webview=android&ace_environment=androidphone%2Cwebview&ace_config=%7B%22wsj%22%3A%7B%22djcmp%22%3A%7B%22propertyHref%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fwsj.android.app%22%7D%7D%7D

I get your point, but I'm guessing that's one obstacle you didn't have to face. Would you be in the position you're in now without a college degree?

BBRex said:

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I get your point, but I'm guessing that's one obstacle you didn't have to face. Would you be in the position you're in now without a college degree?

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I was extremely fortunate to have the ability to attend college and even further blessed with parents who funded it. Testament to them pinching pennies as we were far from "wealthy".

I was being a bit snarky but also a bit sincere as there are more opportunities now than there were 30 years ago to make exceptional money straight out of college by learning a skilled trade and I am encouraged seeing campuses in high school dedicated to these areas.

I have been harsh on this topic and thread and I do understand I benefited from circumstances beyond my control. But, that does not negate focus, dedication, hard work, delayed gratification and a huge commitment to saving for tomorrow that was instilled in me from a dad born in 1941 but who did not have electricity or running water until the mid-1950's.

I watched as my friends and others bought new cars, bigger houses, went on fancy trips whilst I asked my wife to work with me to delay those things until we were financially secure.

Yesterday, we bought our first new car between us in 7 years even though we could well afford years ago.

So yes there are some headwinds facing those getting out of school and getting their futures setup. But there are plenty of opportunities for anyone with a college degree in things other than system racism in circus pachyderms. And plenty of people I went to college with 25 years ago had student loans and made it all work.

Just folks are going to have to get back to delaying gratification and settling for less than optimum housing, schools, jobs, etc.

A lot of people could have/would have. The issue really is the cost of college today has made it a scam.

Agthatbuilds said:

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BREAKING: The share of Americans who are mortgage-free is at an all-time high, per Bloomberg.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) November 23, 2023

This is interesting. To me, it means less homes coming on the market and will counter any major dip in the market.

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Lots of renters out there......

fka ftc said:

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BBRex said:

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I get your point, but I'm guessing that's one obstacle you didn't have to face. Would you be in the position you're in now without a college degree?

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I was extremely fortunate to have the ability to attend college and even further blessed with parents who funded it. Testament to them pinching pennies as we were far from "wealthy".

I was being a bit snarky but also a bit sincere as there are more opportunities now than there were 30 years ago to make exceptional money straight out of college by learning a skilled trade and I am encouraged seeing campuses in high school dedicated to these areas.

I have been harsh on this topic and thread and I do understand I benefited from circumstances beyond my control. But, that does not negate focus, dedication, hard work, delayed gratification and a huge commitment to saving for tomorrow that was instilled in me from a dad born in 1941 but who did not have electricity or running water until the mid-1950's.

I watched as my friends and others bought new cars, bigger houses, went on fancy trips whilst I asked my wife to work with me to delay those things until we were financially secure.

Yesterday, we bought our first new car between us in 7 years even though we could well afford years ago.

So yes there are some headwinds facing those getting out of school and getting their futures setup. But there are plenty of opportunities for anyone with a college degree in things other than system racism in circus pachyderms. And plenty of people I went to college with 25 years ago had student loans and made it all work.

Just folks are going to have to get back to delaying gratification and settling for less than optimum housing, schools, jobs, etc.

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You have come so far in this thread. Its been quite the journey.

100 % accurate post. And I especially agree with the delayed gratification on some things until you are so financially secure, it doesn't even make a dent.

Never changed the song just a bit of the tune.

LMCane said:

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jja79 said:

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Logos Stick said:

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jja79 said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

---

I build many very expensive homes for boomers.

Just a random anecdote I'll add

---

I have taken quite a few applications for construction loans from boomers for what I consider very expensive houses. I'm 66 so I'm one of them and when I look at their finances it scares me to death. Not all of them but a lot of them.

---

So a lot of them have very poor balance sheets yet they are getting loans to build massive homes?!

---

Didn't say that. If they qualify they qualify. Why someone retirement age would want to take on a $1MM plus mortgage isn't something I can get my head around.

---

good points raised here

I am planning early retirement at age 56 and living in florida part of the year

but my buddy who made a fortune in real estate says NOT to buy but just to rent

and instead use the money for S&P funds (which I do already)

---

And yet...some here will absolutely argue tooth and nail that in no way is this a valid strategy.

(It does depend on individual situations, but its absolutely a valid way to go about things....When people say "you are just throwing money away on rent" clearly has no concept of what markets can do...or the total investment picture of the individual.

fka ftc said:

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Never changed the song just a bit of the tune.

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I know you haven't, but tune matters. A difference between a hit song or nails on a chalk board.

"We expect home sales in 2023 to remain near the lowest annual level since 2009," Fannie Mae has said.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) November 29, 2023

The downturn in the US housing market isn't ending anytime soon, Fannie Mae has said.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) November 29, 2023

Imo, interest rates and cost are clearly the driving factor in unaffordablity. Some might say wages, but, as has been pointed out numerous times. We can't simply give everyone huge raises as that will make inflation worse.

But, if inflation is nearing 2% as the fed has indicated, should the fed be inclined to keep the current interest rate steady or even drop it a point, I'd be interested to see the effect on the market

The majority of mortgage free homes were owned by baby-boomers, per Bloomberg: pic.twitter.com/VvZheteIXf

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) November 29, 2023

As baby boomer die with increased frequency, more homes should come on market, helping the supply side of this equation

Yep

This is from a WSJ article.

y axis is the buy premium. It's never been this high since 1996 and it's much higher than the 2008 bubble:

Agthatbuilds said:

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Imo, interest rates and cost are clearly the driving factor in unaffordablity. Some might say wages, but, as has been pointed out numerous times. We can't simply give everyone huge raises as that will make inflation worse.

But, if inflation is nearing 2% as the fed has indicated, should the fed be inclined to keep the current interest rate steady or even drop it a point, I'd be interested to see the effect on the market

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I would add robust, unrelenting demand as a huge driving factor as well. Texas and other areas remain "underhoused" as last I checked we were still trending under where we were pre-2008 housing collapse.

If we just take Texas (though you could apply to most if not all of the US), the desire / preference of folks is to live in single-family residential structures. That is the least efficient use of land, which is absolutely a scarce resource as any ol timer in real estate will quip the famous line that they are not making any more of it.

As long as demand remains strong then land prices will be held high and that drives the end price of the home as much if not more than interest rates and construction costs. Many land owners tend to be very, very patient. Think the Haggard farm in Plano. It is just not being fully-developed despite being ultra-prime real estate. But the family was patient for the right developer and right market to maximize their value. Many other landowners operate the same.

But when demand draws back then you do see discounting on land as some developments stall / fail.

There is a HUGE opportunity in the US to invest in smaller, poorer communities that have available land and existing infrastructure (if a bit aged). I think that has to be part of the solution.

Agthatbuilds said:

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The majority of mortgage free homes were owned by baby-boomers, per Bloomberg: pic.twitter.com/VvZheteIXf

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) November 29, 2023

As baby boomer die with increased frequency, more homes should come on market, helping the supply side of this equation

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One of the more no **** sherlock chart headlines I've seen in some time. But, yes, there should at least be some new supply as they die off or transition to 55+ communities or assisted living.

Hate this for Ag Son 2 - he bought a lot around 3-4 months ago intending to build - the only saving grace is that his current house is also inflating but the value (building cost of new -vs- sale price of old) differential between new house and current house will probably kill the new project - that combined with the 2 or 3 point increase in mortgage interest rate

Agthatbuilds said:

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The majority of mortgage free homes were owned by baby-boomers, per Bloomberg: pic.twitter.com/VvZheteIXf

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) November 29, 2023

As baby boomer die with increased frequency, more homes should come on market, helping the supply side of this equation

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If they don't have an heir. It will go to kids and be a trust fund/rental property or a family member moves into it.

Big article on drudge yesterday about a great flight from Texas along with some other media about people wanting to leave Texas because of politics, cost and heat.

Add that to austin recently, for the first time ever, having more sellers than buyers and maybe the market will change faster than we anticipate

Agthatbuilds said:

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Big article on drudge yesterday about a great flight from Texas along with some other media about people wanting to leave Texas because of politics, cost and heat.

Add that to austin recently, for the first time ever, having more sellers than buyers and maybe the market will change faster than we anticipate

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Good.

Agthatbuilds said:

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Big article on drudge yesterday about a great flight from Texas along with some other media about people wanting to leave Texas because of politics, cost and heat.

Add that to austin recently, for the first time ever, having more sellers than buyers and maybe the market will change faster than we anticipate

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Excellent development.

The average monthly new-mortgage payment is now 52% higher than the average apartment rent, per CBRE.

That’s worse than the lead-up to the 2008 housing market crash, when the premium peaked at 33%.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) December 1, 2023